Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 6 | 2 | 22 | 97 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 3.7 | 12.6% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 0.0% | 2.42 | 2.69 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | ROK | Bluefield Blue Jays | 6 | 2 | 22 | 97 | 18 | 4 | 0 | 33% | 3.7 | 18.6% | 4.1% | 14.4% | 0.0% | 2.42 | 2.03 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 28 | 16 | 120 | 551 | 71 | 41 | 14 | 57% | 4.3 | 9.5% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 5.91 | 5.34 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | A | Lansing Lugnuts | 28 | 16 | 120 | 551 | 71 | 41 | 14 | 57% | 4.3 | 12.9% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 2.5% | 5.91 | 4.45 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 13 | 96 | 439 | 85 | 45 | 4 | 39% | 2.9 | 14.7% | 11.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 4.48 | 4.20 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 33 | 13 | 96 | 439 | 85 | 45 | 4 | 39% | 2.9 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.1% | 0.9% | 4.48 | 3.28 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 628 | 104 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 4.14 | 4.47 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 148 | 628 | 104 | 36 | 16 | 100% | 5.7 | 16.6% | 5.7% | 10.8% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 3.83 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 8 | 82 | 366 | 69 | 36 | 6 | 22% | 2.3 | 16.2% | 10.5% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 3.61 | 4.15 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 8 | 82 | 366 | 69 | 36 | 6 | 22% | 2.3 | 18.9% | 9.8% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 3.61 | 3.68 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.0% | 6.2% | 16.8% | 0.6% | 3.48 | 2.25 | +1.2 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 44 | 178 | 44 | 11 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.7% | 6.2% | 18.5% | 0.6% | 3.48 | 2.15 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 12.8% | 17.2% | 1.5% | 3.57 | 3.00 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 25 | 0 | 23 | 100 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 30.0% | 11.0% | 19.0% | 4.0% | 3.57 | 4.20 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 10.1% | 1.0% | 3.09 | 3.25 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 51 | 24 | 2 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 10.3% | 11.6% | 0.9% | 3.09 | 3.03 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.7 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 1.9% | 3.40 | 3.36 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 39 | 15 | 3 | 0% | 0.7 | 23.1% | 8.9% | 14.2% | 1.8% | 3.40 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 33 | 152 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.9% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.64 | 4.24 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 2 levels | 32 | 0 | 33 | 152 | 36 | 16 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.7% | 10.5% | 13.2% | 3.3% | 4.64 | 4.34 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 32 | 1 | 34 | 166 | 38 | 24 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 16.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 6.62 | 4.84 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAA | 34 | 0 | 35 | 149 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | LAA | 33 | 0 | 35 | 148 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 2.7% | 4.37 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 69 | 315 | 69 | 40 | 8 | — | — | 22.0% | 12.6% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 5.47 | 4.68 | +0.1 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | LAA | — | — | 39 | 163 | 69 | 40 | 8 | — | — | 42.6% | 24.4% | 18.1% | 4.9% | 9.82 | 5.29 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 44 | 25 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 38 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 39 | 0 | 41 | 175 | 32 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.30 | 5.53 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAA | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 23 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.1% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.64 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAA | 41 | 0 | 43 | 182 | 35 | 21 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.2% | 11.7% | 7.5% | 3.3% | 4.95 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 36 | MLB | LAA | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.2% | 12.3% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 5.30 | 5.53 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 308 | 0 | 293 | 1259 | 252 | 132 | 34 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +4.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 210 | 0 | 200 | 860 | 172 | 90 | 23 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.62 | 4.19 | +2.8 | ||
| Career | — | 370 | 66 | 698 | 3079 | 492 | 293 | 68 | 18% | 1.9 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.17 | +10.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 106 | 19 | 200 | 883 | 141 | 84 | 20 | 18% | 1.9 | 16.0% | 9.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 4.33 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Tayler Saucedo (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.52 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 2.7% | — | 5.14 | 19.3% | 7.6% | 140 | +0.62 | — | — | — |
| Phil Coke L 2026 · 4.00 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.00 | 18.8% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .373 | 3.04 | 18.0% | 11.3% | 70 | -0.96 | 3.04 | 101 | 76 |
| Adam Liberatore L 2024 · 4.29 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.29 | 18.6% | 9.1% | 2.9% | .354 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 124 | 73 |
| Brandon Mann L 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.51 | 19.8% | 11.3% | 3.0% | .286 | 3.60 | 17.8% | 6.4% | 52 | -0.91 | 3.60 | 190 | 72 |
| Ryan O'Rourke L 2024 · 4.13 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.13 | 22.1% | 14.3% | 2.0% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.06 | 145 | 72 |
| Dan Runzler L 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.45 | 17.5% | 11.0% | 2.6% | .325 | 4.79 | 16.0% | 3.0% | 27 | +0.34 | 3.77 | 127 | 71 |
| Zach Phillips L 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 19.1% | 8.5% | 2.0% | .355 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.29 | 202 | 71 |
| Luis Avilán L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.19 | 22.2% | 10.0% | 4.9% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 256 | 68 |
| Craig Breslow L 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.86 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 4.2% | .279 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 94 | -0.35 | 4.22 | 159 | 68 |
| Roenis Elías L 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.89 | 17.4% | 7.2% | 2.5% | .316 | 6.84 | 18.4% | 12.3% | 21 | +2.95 | 3.19 | 564 | 68 |
| Chris Narveson L 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.83 | 23.6% | 8.0% | 4.9% | .333 | 4.57 | 14.1% | 4.5% | 193 | -0.26 | 4.40 | 249 | 67 |
| Neal Cotts L 2028 · 4.65 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.65 | 21.6% | 7.4% | 4.4% | .257 | 4.01 | 21.9% | 14.5% | 93 | -0.64 | 3.24 | 156 | 67 |
| Ryan Sherriff L 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.96 | 22.4% | 12.9% | 2.1% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.94 | 245 | 67 |
| Brian Moran L 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.25 | 21.7% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .304 | 3.85 | 21.9% | 14.0% | 152 | -0.40 | 1.67 | 421 | 67 |
| Alejandro Soto L 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.97 | 17.1% | 6.9% | 2.6% | .376 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.97 | 280 | 66 |
| Boone Logan L 2026 · 5.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.55 | 24.1% | 12.1% | 5.4% | .353 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.44 | 113 | 66 |
| Adam Loewen L 2026 · 4.13 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.13 | 23.4% | 17.4% | 1.5% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.96 | 176 | 66 |
| Marlon Arias L 2025 · 3.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.89 | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.3% | .443 | 5.09 | 19.8% | 8.6% | 74 | +1.20 | 3.89 | 154 | 65 |
| Jeff Beliveau L 2024 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 23.3% | 14.4% | 1.5% | .309 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 137 | 65 |
| Robbie Ross Jr. L 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.87 | 15.2% | 7.0% | 4.0% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.79 | 159 | 64 |
| Colt Hynes L 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.52 | 14.1% | 4.6% | 1.9% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.44 | 152 | 64 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 45 | 19.6% | 11.4% | 1.23 | 4.82 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |