Zack Littell

P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 31 RHP 6'4" / 250 lbs MLB

Overview

MLBSP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR
2024	28	MLBTB	29	29	156	3.63	3.72	21.5%	4.7%	2.2
2025	29	MLBCIN	32	32	187	3.81	4.71	17.1%	4.1%	0.4
2026	30	MLBARI	26	14	124	5.21	6.00	13.5%	7.2%	-1.5
2027PROJ	31	MLBARI	149	0	156	5.01	5.50	15.3%	5.9%	-1.6
2028PROJ	32	MLBARI	137	0	144	5.45	5.75	14.5%	6.3%	-1.9
2029PROJ	33	MLBARI	127	0	133	5.80	6.03	13.6%	6.7%	-2.1

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.1 · Next 3 projected WAR -5.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2026

FB Velo11

Whiff%10

K%10

xwOBA vs10

CompsRamon Ortiz (age 31) · Marco Estrada (age 31) · Tom Koehler (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143135vR 127

ERA5.01

FIP5.50

K%15.3%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%9.4%

Proj IP156

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 156 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5555

CMD5050

K†3030

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1191.7

Whiff%

p1016.2%

p1013.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.384

SI (14%)

SL-0.9 (9%)

CT-1.6 (28%)

FB-8.8 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	19	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	21	21	113	483	84	30	4	100%	5.4	12.9%	7.3%	5.5%	1.3%	3.91	3.64	—
2015	19	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	21	21	113	483	84	30	4	100%	5.4	17.4%	6.2%	11.2%	0.8%	3.91	2.87	—
2016	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	27	166	669	156	34	8	96%	5.9	17.5%	5.9%	11.6%	1.6%	2.66	3.23	—
2016	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	27	166	669	156	34	8	96%	5.9	23.3%	5.1%	18.2%	1.2%	2.66	2.46	—
2017	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	157	631	142	41	8	93%	5.8	17.9%	7.3%	10.6%	1.6%	2.12	3.40	—
2017	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	157	631	142	41	8	93%	5.8	22.5%	6.5%	16.0%	1.3%	2.12	2.74	—
2018	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	32	22	149	655	144	58	11	69%	4.7	19.3%	9.3%	10.0%	2.0%	4.28	3.73	+2.1
2018	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	32	22	149	655	144	58	11	69%	4.7	22.0%	8.9%	13.1%	1.7%	4.28	3.29	+2.9
2019	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	7	100	411	100	33	15	14%	2.0	22.3%	8.3%	14.0%	4.0%	3.33	4.49	+0.1
2019	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	7	100	411	100	33	15	14%	2.0	24.3%	8.0%	16.3%	3.6%	3.33	4.04	+0.6
2020	24	MLB MLE	Minnesota Twins	6	0	6	31	3	3	5	0%	1.1	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	16.1%	9.95	12.36	-0.6
2020	24	MLB RAW	Minnesota Twins	6	0	6	31	3	3	5	0%	1.1	9.7%	9.7%	0.0%	16.1%	9.95	13.84	-0.7
2021	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	65	2	64	263	64	25	8	3%	1.0	25.0%	9.1%	15.9%	3.0%	3.11	3.79	+0.6
2021	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	65	2	64	263	64	25	8	3%	1.0	24.3%	9.5%	14.8%	3.0%	3.11	3.90	+0.5
2022	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	54	1	60	255	54	18	11	2%	1.1	20.5%	7.0%	13.5%	4.9%	5.28	4.93	-0.3
2022	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	54	1	60	255	54	18	11	2%	1.1	21.2%	7.1%	14.1%	4.3%	5.28	4.59	-0.0
2023	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	39	14	104	441	91	17	15	36%	2.7	20.1%	3.7%	16.4%	3.5%	4.15	3.78	+1.0
2023	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	39	14	104	441	91	17	15	36%	2.7	20.6%	3.9%	16.8%	3.4%	4.15	3.72	+1.0
2024	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.78	+2.1
2024	28	MLB MLE	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.78	+2.1
2024	28	MLB RAW	Tampa Bay Rays	29	29	156	656	141	31	22	100%	5.4	21.5%	4.7%	16.8%	3.4%	3.63	3.72	+2.2
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.4%	3.81	4.58	+0.7
2025	29	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.4%	3.81	4.58	+0.7
2025	29	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	32	32	187	759	130	31	36	100%	5.8	17.1%	4.1%	13.0%	4.7%	3.81	4.71	+0.4
2026	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.9%	5.21	6.10	-1.6
2026	30	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.9%	5.21	6.10	-1.6
2026	30	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	14	124	540	73	39	30	54%	4.8	13.5%	7.2%	6.3%	5.6%	5.21	6.00	-1.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			260	93	727	3054	569	170	128	36%	2.8	18.6%	5.6%	13.1%	4.2%	4.11	4.53	+0.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	31	MLB	ARI	149	0	156	659	101	39	31	0%	1.0	15.3%	5.9%	9.4%	4.7%	5.01	5.50	-1.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	32	MLB MLE	ARI	138	0	144	610	88	38	30	0%	1.0	14.5%	6.3%	8.2%	4.9%	5.45	5.75	-1.9
2029	33	MLB MLE	ARI	126	0	133	560	76	38	29	0%	1.1	13.6%	6.7%	6.9%	5.2%	5.80	6.03	-2.1
2028	32	MLB CTX	ARI	137	0	144	608	88	38	30	0%	1.1	14.5%	6.3%	8.2%	4.9%	5.45	5.75	-1.9
2029	33	MLB CTX	ARI	127	0	133	562	76	38	29	0%	1.0	13.6%	6.7%	6.9%	5.2%	5.80	6.03	-2.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		524	93	1004	4224	733	246	187	18%	1.9	17.4%	5.8%	11.5%	4.4%	4.53	4.80	-3.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		104	19	200	841	146	49	37	18%	1.9	17.4%	5.8%	11.5%	4.4%	4.53	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		408	194	1386	5794	1064	378	185	48%	3.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.13	-4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	28	200	836	154	55	27	48%	3.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.8%	3.2%	3.70	4.13	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Littell (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.50	15.3%	5.9%	4.7%	—	5.88	14.1%	7.5%	277	+0.38	—	—	—
Ramon Ortiz R 2004 · 4.44 FIP	31	SW	4.44	15.1%	6.3%	3.3%	.296	4.95	12.0%	6.2%	466	+0.51	4.32	1,525	65
Marco Estrada R 2014 · 4.70 FIP	31	SW	4.70	20.4%	7.1%	4.4%	.255	4.28	20.9%	12.6%	543	-0.42	3.28	1,244	63
Tom Koehler R 2017 · 4.66 FIP	31	SP-	4.66	22.4%	9.0%	4.2%	.298	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	822	62
Chase Anderson R 2019 · 4.39 FIP	31	SP	4.39	20.9%	8.1%	3.7%	.259	5.39	19.2%	10.0%	218	+1.00	3.30	1,260	59
Josh A. Smith R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	31	SW	4.65	20.8%	6.4%	4.5%	.341	3.67	17.4%	8.6%	59	-0.98	2.91	598	51
Scott Carroll R 2016 · 4.94 FIP	31	SP	4.94	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	.289	5.71	14.4%	5.8%	22	+0.77	3.92	377	48
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	48
Chris Heston R 2017 · 5.88 FIP	29	SP-	5.88	13.6%	10.0%	4.9%	.368	—	—	—	—	—	3.81	321	46
Geremi Gonzalez R 2006 · 4.81 FIP	31	SW	4.81	16.9%	8.1%	3.9%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	573	45
Miguel González R 2015 · 4.53 FIP	31	SP	4.53	17.5%	7.9%	3.5%	.289	4.23	15.9%	9.0%	325	-0.30	3.72	905	44
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	43
Scott McGregor R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	28	SP-	4.37	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	107	43
Asher Wojciechowski R 2020 · 5.92 FIP	31	SP-	5.92	18.5%	8.9%	5.9%	.306	4.33	23.6%	15.6%	55	-1.59	3.15	678	42
Shigetoshi Hasegawa R 2000 · 4.33 FIP	31	SU	4.33	14.2%	7.7%	2.6%	.284	3.70	13.8%	7.4%	199	-0.63	3.60	720	42
Kohei Arihara R 2022 · 4.58 FIP	29	SP-	4.58	16.4%	7.2%	3.5%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	4.58	135	42
Travis Smith R 2004 · 6.24 FIP	31	SW	6.24	14.4%	5.6%	6.7%	.273	3.67	17.3%	9.6%	11	-2.57	3.67	105	41
Randy Wynne R 2024 · 5.75 FIP	31	SP-	5.75	13.6%	6.0%	5.5%	.283	6.55	10.7%	7.2%	60	+0.80	4.35	461	41
Scott Copeland R 2019 · 5.62 FIP	31	SP-	5.62	17.1%	12.4%	4.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.55	569	41
Orlando Hernandez R 2001 · 5.30 FIP	31	SP	5.30	18.6%	9.9%	4.6%	.256	3.78	20.4%	13.1%	231	-1.52	3.35	1,315	41
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	41

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.8	105	17.1%	5.9%	1.73	4.59
Tommy Milone ('23)	4.8	95	17.4%	5.7%	1.53	4.58
Warren Hacker ('48-'61, 8 WAR*)	6.4	160	17.6%*	5.6%*	1.55*	4.42*
George Stone ('67-'75, 5 WAR*)	5.1	128	17.8%*	6.0%*	1.58*	4.42*
Jaime Barria ('23)	2.3	77	17.9%	7.7%	1.61	4.38
Bill Werle ('49-'54, 2 WAR*)	3.3	133	18.8%*	6.0%*	1.45*	4.72*
Adrian Sampson ('22)	1.5	73	17.5%	6.1%	1.69	4.43