Brad Keller
P
Philadelphia Phillies
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 255 lbs
MLB
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION54 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA3.63
FIP3.64
xFIP3.21
SIERA3.05
K%23.6%
BB%9.0%
K-BB%14.6%
IP55
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
CH+1.3 (14%)
SL (34%)
SI (21%)
FB-0.7 (52%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Kane County Cougars | 26 | 25 | 142 | 586 | 109 | 37 | 3 | 13.8% | 7.5% | 0.9% | 2.60 | 3.36 | +3.4 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | 24 | 24 | 135 | 558 | 99 | 26 | 13 | 13.7% | 5.4% | 2.3% | 4.47 | 3.89 | +2.4 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | 26 | 26 | 131 | 580 | 111 | 56 | 7 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 4.68 | 3.96 | +2.2 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 20 | 140 | 583 | 96 | 49 | 7 | 16.5% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 3.08 | 3.48 | +3.2 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 28 | 165 | 709 | 122 | 68 | 15 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.10 | +2.5 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 9 | 9 | 55 | 215 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 1.0% | 2.47 | 3.27 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 26 | 134 | 613 | 120 | 63 | 18 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 5.39 | 4.47 | +1.4 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 35 | 22 | 140 | 617 | 102 | 56 | 17 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 5.09 | 4.47 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 12 | 65 | 318 | 46 | 73 | 5 | 13.1% | 24.8% | 1.6% | 6.26 | 6.04 | -1.1 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 15 | 110 | 476 | 92 | 38 | 12 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.6% | 4.09 | 4.05 | +1.7 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 68 | 1 | 70 | 276 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 1.4% | 2.07 | 2.59 | +1.8 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 30 | 0 | 29 | 123 | 30 | 10 | 4 | 24.4% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 3.38 | 3.86 | +0.2 |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | PHI | 21 | — | 21 | 91 | 21 | 8 | 2 | 23.6% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 3.63 | 3.64 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | PHI | — | — | 51 | 214 | 51 | 18 | 6 | 24.1% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 3.48 | 3.76 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 45 | 19 | 6 | 22.7% | 9.4% | 2.8% | 4.18 | 4.28 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | PHI | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 40 | 18 | 6 | 21.9% | 9.9% | 3.1% | 4.41 | 4.56 | -0.0 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | PHI | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 35 | 17 | 6 | 21.0% | 10.4% | 3.4% | 4.69 | 4.87 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | PHI | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 20.0% | 10.9% | 3.7% | 5.00 | 5.20 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | PHI | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 25 | 15 | 5 | 19.0% | 11.5% | 4.1% | 5.34 | 5.57 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 373 | 208 | 1315 | 5654 | 953 | 538 | 115 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +21.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 57 | 32 | 200 | 860 | 145 | 82 | 17 | 16.9% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.09 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Keller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.00 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.55 | 21.9% | 12.0% | 129 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.57 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 2.7% | .325 | 3.78 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.21 | 3.57 | 137 | 81 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.09 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.09 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.84 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.75 | 3.09 | 148 | 79 |
| Blake Wood R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.52 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 210 | 79 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 79 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.41 | 26.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .241 | 3.66 | 23.3% | 13.2% | 105 | +0.25 | 3.41 | 212 | 78 |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.92 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.46 | 3.46 | 160 | 78 |
| Ryan Cook R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.40 | 25.5% | 9.1% | 2.4% | .254 | 3.69 | 22.8% | 11.1% | 129 | +0.29 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2028 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 3.20 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.20 | 25.2% | 6.0% | 2.7% | .286 | 3.68 | 21.9% | 12.2% | 152 | +0.48 | 2.82 | 284 | 75 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 75 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.58 | 23.5% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .258 | 2.93 | 26.6% | 18.9% | 183 | -0.65 | 2.01 | 380 | 75 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 74 |
| Pedro Beato R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.79 | 21.1% | 6.4% | 3.0% | .266 | 3.41 | 16.8% | 9.3% | 29 | -0.38 | 3.40 | 295 | 74 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 74 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.3% | 8.3% | 3.7% | .278 | 3.50 | 24.3% | 18.2% | 99 | -0.54 | 2.27 | 426 | 74 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 31 | SW | 5.03 | 19.1% | 9.4% | 4.3% | .253 | 3.84 | 17.2% | 8.0% | 67 | -1.19 | 3.73 | 132 | 73 |
| Danny Farquhar R 2025 · 3.57 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.57 | 22.3% | 11.0% | 1.7% | .247 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.57 | 224 | 73 |
| Ryan Madson R 2029 · 2.97 FIP | 34 | SW | 2.97 | 23.4% | 5.2% | 2.2% | .244 | 2.98 | 23.9% | 18.7% | 176 | +0.01 | 1.42 | 240 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.