Brad Keller
P
Philadelphia Phillies
+0.5
WAR
Age 31
RHP
6'5" / 255 lbs
MLB
peak 0.5 · 2026
ERA3.96
FIP4.06
xFIP3.21
SIERA3.05
K%22.6%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.3%
IP55
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p8897.2
Whiff%
p6026.9%
K%
p7727.2%
xwOBA vs
p900.262
CH+1.3 (17%)
SL (30%)
SI (14%)
FB-0.7 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 20 | A | Kane County Cougars | 26 | 25 | 142 | 586 | 109 | 37 | 3 | 13.8% | 7.5% | 0.8% | 2.60 | 3.30 | +3.2 |
| 2016 | 21 | A+ | Visalia Rawhide | 24 | 24 | 135 | 558 | 99 | 26 | 13 | 13.7% | 5.4% | 2.7% | 4.47 | 4.08 | +1.9 |
| 2017 | 22 | AA | Jackson Generals | 26 | 26 | 131 | 580 | 111 | 56 | 7 | 15.5% | 10.6% | 1.5% | 4.68 | 3.94 | +2.0 |
| 2018 | 23 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 41 | 20 | 140 | 583 | 96 | 49 | 7 | 16.5% | 8.4% | 1.3% | 3.08 | 3.50 | +2.9 |
| 2019 | 24 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 28 | 165 | 709 | 122 | 68 | 15 | 17.2% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 4.19 | 4.14 | +2.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 9 | 9 | 55 | 215 | 35 | 17 | 2 | 16.3% | 7.9% | 0.9% | 2.47 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 26 | 26 | 134 | 613 | 120 | 63 | 18 | 19.6% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 5.39 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 35 | 22 | 140 | 617 | 102 | 56 | 17 | 16.5% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 5.09 | 4.38 | +1.5 |
| 2023 | 28 | MLB | Kansas City Royals | 28 | 12 | 65 | 318 | 46 | 73 | 5 | 13.1% | 24.8% | 1.5% | 6.26 | 5.96 | -0.7 |
| 2024 | 29 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 32 | 15 | 110 | 476 | 92 | 38 | 12 | 17.8% | 8.2% | 2.7% | 4.09 | 4.11 | +1.5 |
| 2025 | 30 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 68 | 1 | 70 | 276 | 75 | 22 | 4 | 27.2% | 8.0% | 1.5% | 2.07 | 2.64 | +1.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 8 | 0 | 8 | 33 | 8 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 4.70 | — | — |
| ROS | 31 | MLB | — | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 42 | 17 | 4 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.4% | 3.94 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 31 | MLB | — | — | — | 51 | 215 | 50 | 19 | 5 | 23.4% | 8.8% | 2.5% | 4.05 | 3.42 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | — | 45 | — | 45 | 192 | 44 | 18 | 5 | 22.8% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 4.03 | 4.12 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | — | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 38 | 16 | 4 | 22.1% | 9.4% | 2.6% | 4.16 | 4.24 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | — | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 32 | 14 | 4 | 21.4% | 9.6% | 2.7% | 4.29 | 4.38 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 35 | MLB | — | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 27 | 13 | 4 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.53 | +0.1 |
| 2031 | 36 | MLB | — | 27 | — | 27 | 114 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 19.9% | 10.0% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 351 | 208 | 1293 | 5564 | 931 | 530 | 112 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.11 | 4.00 | +19.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 32 | 200 | 860 | 144 | 82 | 17 | 16.7% | 9.5% | 2.0% | 4.11 | 4.00 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Brad Keller (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 23.2% | 9.3% | 2.4% | — | 4.24 | 22.1% | 12.8% | 121 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Jepsen R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.46 | 20.7% | 9.1% | 1.7% | .241 | 5.68 | 16.9% | 7.2% | 90 | +2.22 | 3.46 | 160 | 80 |
| Tom Wilhelmsen R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.11 | 22.5% | 9.7% | 1.2% | .298 | 5.81 | 13.8% | 4.1% | 86 | +2.70 | 3.11 | 148 | 79 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 3.75 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.75 | 17.5% | 8.8% | 1.9% | .244 | 4.71 | 17.6% | 7.8% | 377 | +0.96 | 3.75 | 521 | 78 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.53 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.2% | .268 | 4.27 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.26 | 3.50 | 292 | 78 |
| Erik Davis R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.54 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.05 | 227 | 78 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.22 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .279 | 4.06 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.16 | 4.06 | 219 | 77 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.01 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 1.9% | .276 | 3.38 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.63 | 3.38 | 129 | 77 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.55 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.8% | .273 | 6.40 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.85 | 3.55 | 155 | 77 |
| Jean Machi R 2028 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 77 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.6% | .330 | 3.87 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.27 | 3.12 | 352 | 77 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.80 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 1.9% | .256 | 3.29 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.51 | 3.15 | 485 | 76 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.11 | 158 | 76 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.73 | 24.5% | 8.2% | 3.0% | .325 | 3.80 | 21.7% | 13.5% | 76 | +0.07 | 3.65 | 137 | 76 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2027 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 76 |
| Jim Johnson R 2027 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.7% | .330 | 3.67 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.33 | 2.57 | 251 | 76 |
| Tony Barnette R 2027 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 76 |
| Tyler Herron R 2025 · 3.99 FIP | 30 | SW | 3.99 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 2.1% | .377 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.99 | 117 | 76 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2029 · 3.82 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.82 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.3% | .294 | 3.34 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.48 | 3.21 | 225 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 75 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.53 | 16.0% | 7.6% | 3.3% | .270 | 4.84 | 19.3% | 9.7% | 63 | +0.31 | 2.99 | 227 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.