Daniel Castano prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Castano P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 31 LHP 6'3" / 231 lbs AAA peak 0.6 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 65 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108116vR 124

ERA4.78

FIP4.91

K%18.4%

BB%10.2%

K-BB%8.2%

ROS IP65

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD3030

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1692.1

Whiff%

p1017.6%

p1012.8%

xwOBA vs

p310.334

FB-1.0

SL-3.5

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	ROK MLE	Johnson City Cardinals	12	11	48	219	34	12	6	92%	4.0	10.6%	6.8%	3.7%	3.8%	6.19	5.18	—
2016	21	ROK RAW	Johnson City Cardinals	12	11	48	219	34	12	6	92%	4.0	15.5%	5.5%	10.0%	2.7%	6.19	4.06	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	23	135	580	116	28	13	96%	5.6	15.0%	6.0%	9.1%	3.0%	3.93	4.21	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	23	135	580	116	28	13	96%	5.6	20.0%	4.8%	15.2%	2.2%	3.93	3.26	—
2019	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	11	119	495	104	23	4	37%	4.0	16.8%	5.2%	11.6%	1.2%	3.48	2.98	—
2019	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	11	119	495	104	23	4	37%	4.0	21.0%	4.6%	16.4%	0.8%	3.48	2.37	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	7	6	30	126	12	11	3	86%	4.2	9.5%	8.7%	0.8%	2.5%	3.03	4.78	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	7	6	30	126	12	11	3	86%	4.2	9.5%	8.7%	0.8%	2.4%	3.03	4.72	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	18	99	408	67	24	19	95%	5.2	14.8%	6.1%	8.8%	5.6%	4.10	5.71	-0.9
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	18	99	408	67	24	19	95%	5.2	16.4%	5.9%	10.5%	4.7%	4.10	4.98	-0.1
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	13	70	300	58	20	15	76%	4.1	17.8%	6.9%	11.0%	5.3%	4.13	5.38	-0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	13	70	300	58	20	15	76%	4.1	19.3%	6.7%	12.7%	5.0%	4.13	5.10	-0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	9	67	297	64	31	12	43%	3.2	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	4.0%	5.40	4.82	-0.2
2023	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	9	67	297	64	31	12	43%	3.2	18.6%	8.7%	9.9%	4.0%	5.40	4.82	-0.2
2023	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	9	67	297	64	31	12	43%	3.2	21.5%	10.4%	11.1%	4.0%	5.40	4.92	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			24	17	89	394	49	31	13	71%	3.7	12.4%	7.9%	4.6%	3.3%	4.47	4.95	-0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.4%	10.2%	8.2%	3.1%	4.78	4.91	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	MIA	10	10	60	254	46	27	8	100%	6.0	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.95	5.11	-0.1
2028	33	MLB MLE	MIA	9	9	55	233	41	25	8	100%	6.1	17.6%	10.8%	6.8%	3.6%	5.15	5.33	-0.3
2027	32	MLB CTX	MIA	4	4	22	93	17	10	3	100%	5.5	18.1%	10.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.95	5.11	-0.1
2028	33	MLB CTX	MIA	5	5	30	127	22	14	5	100%	6.0	17.6%	10.8%	6.8%	3.6%	5.15	5.33	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	25	141	616	89	55	21	78%	4.4	14.4%	8.9%	5.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.86	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		46	36	200	872	126	78	30	78%	4.4	14.4%	8.9%	5.5%	3.4%	4.69	4.86	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		130	91	567	2425	375	157	85	70%	4.4	15.4%	6.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.21	4.55	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		46	32	200	856	132	56	30	70%	4.4	15.4%	6.5%	9.0%	3.5%	4.21	4.55	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Castano (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.91	18.4%	10.2%	3.1%	—	5.22	17.9%	7.2%	115	+0.31	—	—	—
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2020 · 3.76 FIP	32	SP	3.76	15.6%	6.5%	2.1%	.214	4.21	17.7%	9.5%	107	+0.45	3.76	146	73
Marlon Arias L 2015 · 4.32 FIP	30	SP	4.32	16.8%	12.2%	2.0%	.330	3.73	17.2%	9.5%	22	-0.59	3.73	154	70
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	69
Santiago Gutierrez L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP-	3.95	15.0%	8.2%	2.0%	.366	6.54	17.1%	3.7%	46	+2.59	3.90	341	69
Sean Nolin L 2021 · 4.54 FIP	31	SP-	4.54	20.4%	8.9%	3.7%	.316	5.87	19.3%	12.9%	23	+1.33	3.79	309	67
Brandon Mann L 2016 · 4.72 FIP	32	SP	4.72	19.4%	7.9%	4.1%	.320	3.97	19.0%	7.6%	128	-0.75	3.59	190	66
Tomas Solis L 2015 · 4.20 FIP	32	SP	4.20	15.0%	6.2%	2.9%	.264	5.09	12.0%	3.7%	159	+0.89	4.20	327	65
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	65
Arturo Lopez L 2015 · 4.80 FIP	32	SP	4.80	13.7%	6.2%	3.8%	.301	4.80	10.9%	4.2%	217	+0.00	4.34	445	64
Carlos Teller L 2017 · 4.63 FIP	30	SP	4.63	12.2%	9.6%	2.5%	.322	4.90	13.1%	-1.1%	60	+0.27	3.75	333	64
Kelvin Marte L 2019 · 5.25 FIP	31	SP	5.25	12.0%	10.8%	3.3%	.340	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	360	64
John Bale L 2003 · 4.12 FIP	29	SP	4.12	19.0%	5.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	2.49	168	63
Luke Westphal L 2021 · 4.70 FIP	32	SP-	4.70	22.7%	13.1%	3.4%	.321	4.58	21.9%	7.6%	95	-0.12	2.97	294	63
Irwin Delgado L 2019 · 4.73 FIP	30	SP	4.73	15.6%	9.5%	3.2%	.404	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	383	62
Alejandro Astorga L 2017 · 4.01 FIP	30	SP	4.01	14.4%	8.2%	2.0%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.72	311	62
Anthony Vasquez L 2018 · 4.64 FIP	31	SW	4.64	17.1%	8.9%	3.4%	.322	6.00	14.6%	7.3%	85	+1.36	4.02	671	60
Enrique Lechuga L 2017 · 3.78 FIP	31	SP	3.78	10.5%	6.1%	1.5%	.390	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	137	60
Marco Tovar L 2019 · 4.78 FIP	30	SP	4.78	12.6%	5.6%	3.7%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	327	60
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	57
Daniel Rodriguez L 2016 · 4.46 FIP	31	SP	4.46	19.3%	11.1%	2.9%	.333	4.32	16.9%	8.2%	226	-0.14	2.89	391	56

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.3	45	16.2%	9.6%	1.28	4.79
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Giovanni Carrara ('06)	2.4	59	16.3%	9.7%	1.41	4.69
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Lance Painter ('03)	2.2	56	16.7%	9.0%	1.32	5.24
Mike Lincoln ('10)	1.9	54	14.1%	8.9%	1.32	5.33
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27