Zack Brown prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Zack Brown P Louisville Bats

Age 31 RHP 6'1" / 199 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 19 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%16.6%

BB%10.3%

K-BB%6.3%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 19 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	6	38	174	34	9	3	50%	3.2	15.2%	3.3%	11.9%	2.4%	4.46	3.55	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	6	38	174	34	9	3	50%	3.2	19.5%	5.2%	14.4%	1.7%	4.46	3.05	—
2017	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	17	110	451	107	36	8	77%	5.0	17.7%	9.4%	8.3%	2.0%	3.11	3.91	—
2017	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	17	110	451	107	36	8	77%	5.0	23.7%	8.0%	15.7%	1.8%	3.11	3.08	—
2018	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	128	513	119	36	8	96%	5.6	18.7%	7.7%	11.0%	1.8%	2.40	3.46	—
2018	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	128	513	119	36	8	96%	5.6	23.2%	7.0%	16.2%	1.6%	2.40	2.90	—
2019	24	AAA MLE	San Antonio Missions	25	23	117	540	98	63	16	92%	4.7	16.0%	12.3%	3.7%	3.3%	5.79	5.13	—
2019	24	AAA RAW	San Antonio Missions	25	23	117	540	98	63	16	92%	4.7	18.1%	11.7%	6.5%	3.0%	5.79	4.82	—
2021	26	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	1	27	118	28	19	5	5%	1.4	20.0%	16.6%	3.5%	5.6%	3.67	6.55	—
2021	26	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	1	27	118	28	19	5	5%	1.4	23.7%	16.1%	7.6%	4.2%	3.67	5.54	—
2022	27	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	49	0	50	212	51	19	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.4%	11.8%	2.2%	3.93	3.71	—
2022	27	AAA RAW	Nashville Sounds	49	0	50	212	51	19	4	0%	1.0	24.1%	9.0%	15.1%	1.9%	3.93	3.24	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	4	35	160	14	22	4	21%	1.8	7.5%	12.4%	-4.9%	2.6%	8.05	5.46	—
2023	28	AAA MLE	Louisville Bats	19	4	35	160	14	22	4	21%	1.8	7.5%	12.4%	-4.9%	2.6%	8.05	5.46	—
2023	28	AAA RAW	Louisville Bats	19	4	35	160	14	22	4	21%	1.8	8.8%	13.8%	-5.0%	2.5%	8.05	5.70	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	31	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.6%	10.3%	6.3%	3.0%	5.02	5.02	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	32	MLB MLE	CIN	19	0	20	84	14	9	3	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.2%	5.09	5.18	-0.1
2027	32	MLB CTX	CIN	7	0	7	30	5	3	1	0%	1.0	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.2%	5.09	5.18	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		7	0	7	31	5	3	1	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.2%	5.09	4.80	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	136	82	27	0%	1.1	16.8%	10.6%	6.2%	3.2%	5.09	4.80	-0.6
Career	—	MLE		169	73	505	2168	369	213	56	43%	3.0	17.0%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	4.10	4.32	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		67	29	200	859	146	84	22	43%	3.0	17.0%	9.8%	7.2%	2.6%	4.10	4.32	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zack Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	16.6%	10.3%	3.0%	—	5.18	16.8%	6.2%	20	+0.16	—	—	—
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	73
Edgar Alberto Garcia R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	29	SP-	4.01	17.3%	10.9%	1.8%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	272	72
Elian Leyva R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	30	SP-	4.30	17.0%	8.5%	2.9%	.323	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	158	72
Murphy Smith R 2018 · 4.57 FIP	30	SW	4.57	13.6%	9.3%	2.6%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	300	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	71
Bradin Hagens R 2019 · 5.46 FIP	30	SW	5.46	13.2%	12.6%	3.4%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.79	254	70
Marco Carrillo R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	30	SW	5.33	11.1%	7.4%	4.1%	.278	6.08	9.9%	0.8%	104	+0.75	5.33	194	70
Francisco Cordova R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	31	SW	5.51	6.4%	4.6%	4.3%	.261	4.59	7.1%	-0.6%	83	-0.92	4.59	115	69
Jose A. Flores R 2018 · 4.77 FIP	29	SP-	4.77	13.7%	10.3%	2.8%	.350	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	237	69
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2015 · 4.81 FIP	31	SP-	4.81	8.9%	6.6%	3.0%	.346	4.84	8.4%	-0.8%	52	+0.03	4.81	104	69
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	68
Wes Obermueller R 2007 · 4.83 FIP	30	SW	4.83	12.6%	11.2%	2.5%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.72	308	67
Robert Stock R 2021 · 4.18 FIP	31	SW	4.18	23.0%	8.5%	3.5%	.301	7.20	14.3%	0.1%	23	+3.02	2.74	378	66
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	66
Felipe Arredondo R 2017 · 4.76 FIP	30	SW	4.76	14.8%	7.3%	3.6%	.311	4.65	16.2%	9.1%	64	-0.11	3.92	337	65
Seth Simmons R 2018 · 6.20 FIP	30	SW	6.20	13.3%	10.9%	5.2%	.242	—	—	—	—	—	3.07	251	65
Chris Jakubauskas R 2009 · 4.97 FIP	30	SW	4.97	12.1%	6.2%	3.9%	.250	4.42	15.7%	7.8%	72	-0.55	4.42	165	65
Derek Eitel R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	29	SP-	4.72	17.2%	16.0%	1.9%	.273	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	138	65
David Holman R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	29	SW	5.80	8.9%	10.7%	3.8%	.351	—	—	—	—	—	5.28	129	64
Clay Hensley R 2011 · 4.78 FIP	31	SW	4.78	15.5%	9.8%	3.2%	.249	4.37	17.9%	5.9%	51	-0.41	2.58	517	63