Phil Bickford

P Lehigh Valley IronPigs

Age 32 RHP 6'4" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	28	MIX2 levels	62	0	68	4.87	3.90	25.1%	11.4%	0.5	K 25.0% · BB 11.5% · FIP 3.90
2024	29	MIX2 levels	47	1	59	4.14	2.76	27.6%	6.9%	1.3	K 25.8% · BB 7.0% · FIP 2.92
2025	30	AAAPHI	39	0	46	3.52	2.47	28.5%	9.1%	—	K 24.5% · BB 8.2% · FIP 2.76
2027PROJ	32	MLBPHI	133	0	140	3.77	3.94	25.0%	7.6%	1.0
2028PROJ37% MLB	33	MLBPHI	45	0	47	4.04	4.22	24.2%	8.0%	0.2
2029PROJ32% MLB	34	MLBPHI	36	0	38	4.33	4.52	23.3%	8.5%	0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 1.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff55Control50Command60FB velo50

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 30) · Dale Thayer (age 32) · Kazuhiro Sasaki (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 92

ERA3.77

FIP3.94

K%25.0%

BB%7.6%

K-BB%17.4%

Proj IP140

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 140 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD6060

K†6060

SL+0.5 (23%)

FB-1.9 (77%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	20	ROK MLE	AZL Giants	10	10	22	84	32	6	0	100%	2.2	25.9%	8.9%	17.0%	0.0%	2.01	2.04	—
2015	20	ROK RAW	AZL Giants	10	10	22	84	32	6	0	100%	2.2	38.1%	7.1%	31.0%	0.0%	2.01	1.04	—
2016	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	22	120	496	135	42	6	96%	5.2	20.5%	9.8%	10.7%	1.6%	2.92	3.46	—
2016	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	22	120	496	135	42	6	96%	5.2	27.2%	8.5%	18.8%	1.2%	2.92	2.55	—
2017	22	ROK MLE	AZL Brewers	6	5	17	79	16	10	0	83%	2.8	13.8%	15.8%	-2.1%	0.0%	2.12	3.94	—
2017	22	ROK RAW	AZL Brewers	6	5	17	79	16	10	0	83%	2.8	20.3%	12.7%	7.6%	0.0%	2.12	2.98	—
2018	23	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	21	0	35	158	41	18	3	0%	1.7	20.0%	13.1%	6.9%	2.4%	4.67	4.36	—
2018	23	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	21	0	35	158	41	18	3	0%	1.7	25.9%	11.4%	14.6%	1.9%	4.67	3.42	—
2019	24	A+ MLE	Carolina Mudcats	20	0	33	129	53	11	2	0%	1.6	31.6%	9.8%	21.8%	1.8%	2.48	2.65	—
2019	24	A+ RAW	Carolina Mudcats	20	0	33	129	53	11	2	0%	1.6	41.1%	8.5%	32.6%	1.6%	2.48	1.66	—
2020	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	36.00	1.22	+0.0
2020	25	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	1	0	1	9	2	0	0	0%	1.0	22.2%	0.0%	22.2%	0.0%	36.00	-0.90	+0.1
2021	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	56	228	71	12	7	0%	0.9	28.5%	5.8%	22.7%	3.2%	3.04	3.21	+0.9
2021	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	56	228	71	12	7	0%	0.9	31.1%	5.3%	25.9%	3.1%	3.04	2.83	+1.2
2022	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	66	0	66	269	73	17	14	0%	1.0	27.1%	5.7%	21.5%	4.7%	5.05	4.09	+0.4
2022	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	66	0	66	269	73	17	14	0%	1.0	27.1%	6.3%	20.8%	5.2%	5.05	4.42	+0.1
2023	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	62	0	68	307	77	35	8	0%	1.1	25.0%	11.5%	13.5%	2.6%	4.87	3.90	+0.5
2023	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	62	0	68	307	77	35	8	0%	1.1	25.1%	11.4%	13.7%	2.6%	4.87	3.90	+0.5
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	59	246	68	17	5	2%	1.2	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	2.0%	4.14	2.92	+1.1
2024	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	1	59	246	68	17	5	2%	1.2	25.8%	7.0%	18.8%	2.0%	4.14	2.92	+1.1
2024	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	1	59	246	68	17	5	2%	1.2	27.6%	6.9%	20.7%	2.0%	4.14	2.76	+1.3
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	39	0	46	186	53	17	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	1.2%	3.52	2.76	—
2025	30	AAA MLE	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	39	0	46	186	53	17	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	8.2%	16.3%	1.2%	3.52	2.76	—
2025	30	AAA RAW	Lehigh Valley IronPigs	39	0	46	186	53	17	2	0%	1.2	28.5%	9.1%	19.4%	1.1%	3.52	2.47	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			187	0	189	806	210	62	28	0%	1.0	26.1%	7.7%	18.4%	3.5%	4.62	3.79	+1.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	32	MLB	PHI	133	0	140	591	148	45	17	0%	1.1	25.0%	7.6%	17.4%	2.9%	3.77	3.94	+1.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	33	MLB MLE	PHI	122	0	128	542	131	44	17	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.04	4.22	+0.5
2029	34	MLB MLE	PHI	111	0	117	493	115	42	17	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.5%	14.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.52	+0.0
2028	33	MLB CTX	PHI	45	0	47	198	48	16	6	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.0%	16.1%	3.2%	4.04	4.22	+0.2
2029	34	MLB CTX	PHI	36	0	38	160	37	14	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	8.5%	14.7%	3.5%	4.33	4.52	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		268	0	274	1165	295	92	40	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.9%	17.5%	3.4%	4.48	3.84	+2.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		196	0	200	850	215	67	29	0%	1.0	25.3%	7.9%	17.5%	3.4%	4.48	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		357	38	523	2191	533	198	49	11%	1.5	24.3%	9.1%	15.3%	2.2%	3.73	3.42	+2.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		137	15	200	838	204	76	19	11%	1.5	24.3%	9.1%	15.3%	2.2%	3.73	3.42	+1.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phil Bickford (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.94	25.0%	7.6%	2.9%	—	4.36	23.7%	15.5%	245	+0.42	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2024 · 4.07 FIP	30	SU	4.07	18.0%	5.8%	3.2%	.265	3.88	18.2%	10.9%	157	-0.19	3.52	391	72
Dale Thayer R 2013 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.7%	7.4%	2.9%	.287	3.85	20.6%	15.0%	103	+0.23	2.75	239	70
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2000 · 3.93 FIP	32	SU	3.93	29.4%	9.8%	3.8%	.212	2.88	24.9%	19.3%	161	-1.05	2.76	223	67
Tony Barnette R 2016 · 3.05 FIP	32	SU	3.05	19.9%	6.1%	1.6%	.281	3.26	23.4%	17.0%	84	+0.21	2.61	144	67
Jean Machi R 2014 · 3.33 FIP	32	SU	3.33	20.5%	6.0%	2.2%	.225	4.34	17.8%	10.6%	186	+1.01	2.16	306	66
Jared Burton R 2013 · 3.20 FIP	32	SU	3.20	21.7%	6.0%	2.1%	.279	3.92	18.4%	10.0%	78	+0.72	3.09	367	66
Deolis Guerra R 2021 · 3.89 FIP	32	SU	3.89	23.0%	7.4%	3.3%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	2.53	364	66
Nick Martinez R 2023 · 3.62 FIP	32	SU	3.62	23.0%	8.5%	2.5%	.286	3.71	17.3%	13.0%	488	+0.09	2.94	1,288	65
Jumbo Diaz R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	32	SU	3.85	22.3%	9.2%	2.7%	.247	3.28	23.0%	13.8%	141	-0.57	2.80	319	65
George Kontos R 2017 · 3.71 FIP	32	SU	3.71	25.2%	6.5%	3.5%	.287	4.41	14.7%	8.6%	97	+0.70	2.56	421	63
Jesus Pirela R 2019 · 3.24 FIP	30	SU	3.24	22.5%	5.3%	2.5%	.277	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	161	63
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	63
Mark Serrano R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	31	SU	3.56	21.9%	6.4%	2.7%	.240	5.25	20.2%	12.3%	42	+1.69	3.16	120	63
Jose Veras R 2013 · 3.51 FIP	32	SU	3.51	23.6%	8.3%	2.5%	.234	4.28	21.9%	10.2%	65	+0.77	3.37	422	62
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	62
Chris Hatcher R 2017 · 4.31 FIP	32	SU	4.31	24.5%	7.4%	4.3%	.291	5.32	18.0%	8.4%	36	+1.01	2.51	246	62
Mike Broadway R 2018 · 4.65 FIP	31	SU	4.65	23.0%	10.6%	3.9%	.282	—	—	—	—	—	1.74	195	62
Fernando Cruz R 2022 · 2.89 FIP	32	SU	2.89	27.4%	10.0%	1.5%	.254	2.76	36.3%	25.3%	181	-0.13	2.50	371	62
Gerardo Sanchez R 2019 · 3.58 FIP	30	SU	3.58	20.5%	5.4%	2.8%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.65	137	62
Santiago Casilla R 2012 · 3.98 FIP	32	SU	3.98	20.2%	6.6%	3.2%	.246	3.23	21.6%	13.7%	166	-0.75	2.76	647	62

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.9	96	24.8%	8.4%	1.27	4.22
Tom Acker ('56-'59, 3 WAR*)	1.9	95	23.8%*	9.3%*	1.17*	4.30*
Luis Arroyo ('55-'63, 3 WAR*)	2.7	89	22.5%*	8.6%*	1.10*	4.33*
Tyler Lyons ('20)	1.4	57	24.3%	7.6%	1.27	4.30
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Michael Tonkin ('25)	1.6	55	23.2%	8.1%	1.28	4.23