Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 6 | 6 | 34 | 133 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 5.7 | 18.9% | 4.4% | 14.5% | 0.0% | 3.41 | 2.06 | — |
| 2015 | 19 | A | Clinton LumberKings | 6 | 6 | 34 | 133 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 100% | 5.7 | 25.6% | 3.8% | 21.8% | 0.0% | 3.41 | 1.56 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 33 | 140 | 44 | 23 | 4 | 5% | 1.6 | 26.7% | 18.2% | 8.6% | 4.9% | 4.68 | 5.85 | — |
| 2024 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 20 | 1 | 33 | 140 | 44 | 23 | 4 | 5% | 1.6 | 31.4% | 16.4% | 15.0% | 2.9% | 4.68 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 30 | 8 | 74 | 332 | 83 | 30 | 7 | 27% | 2.5 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.3% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.11 | — |
| 2025 | 29 | AA | Frisco RoughRiders | 30 | 8 | 74 | 332 | 83 | 30 | 7 | 27% | 2.5 | 25.0% | 9.0% | 16.0% | 2.1% | 4.38 | 3.30 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 30 | MLB | TEX | 65 | 0 | 68 | 287 | 59 | 31 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 4.74 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 60 | 0 | 63 | 267 | 55 | 29 | 9 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.90 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 56 | 0 | 59 | 247 | 50 | 28 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.08 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 31 | MLB | TEX | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 17 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.82 | 4.90 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 29 | 0 | 30 | 127 | 26 | 14 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 11.2% | 9.0% | 3.4% | 4.96 | 5.08 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 48 | 0 | 50 | 211 | 43 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.63 | -0.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 172 | 92 | 28 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.4% | 11.1% | 9.2% | 3.4% | 4.90 | 4.63 | +1.8 | ||
| Career | — | 56 | 15 | 141 | 605 | 130 | 64 | 16 | 27% | 2.5 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.06 | +2.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 79 | 21 | 200 | 858 | 184 | 91 | 22 | 27% | 2.5 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.8% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.06 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Daniel Missaki (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 20.6% | 10.8% | 3.0% | — | 4.99 | 20.4% | 9.3% | 122 | +0.25 | — | — | — |
| Bud Norris R 2026 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 84 |
| Chris Leroux R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 81 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2027 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 80 |
| Tim Dillard R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 79 |
| Josh Zeid R 2026 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 76 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2026 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 74 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2026 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 74 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 30 | SU | 3.61 | 20.4% | 11.7% | 1.4% | .287 | 4.00 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 77 | +0.39 | 3.35 | 129 | 74 |
| Angel Castro R 2028 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 73 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.76 | 19.6% | 12.3% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.91 | 19.2% | 10.9% | 25 | -0.85 | 2.82 | 536 | 73 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2025 · 4.48 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.48 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 2.7% | .335 | 4.42 | 17.2% | 3.5% | 43 | -0.06 | 4.23 | 241 | 72 |
| Murphy Smith R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 71 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 71 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.66 | 18.3% | 10.2% | 3.3% | .245 | 4.56 | 23.0% | 12.4% | 49 | -0.10 | 1.74 | 195 | 71 |
| Spencer Bivens R 2026 · 4.12 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.12 | 18.2% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .265 | 3.74 | 17.8% | 10.3% | 131 | -0.38 | 3.53 | 365 | 71 |
| Grant Black R 2025 · 5.81 FIP | 29 | SU | 5.81 | 16.3% | 13.2% | 4.4% | .352 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.49 | 215 | 70 |
| Javy Guerra R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.25 | 21.3% | 13.9% | 2.2% | .303 | 3.99 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 193 | -0.26 | 2.95 | 260 | 70 |
| Steve Johnson R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 70 |
| Eder Llamas R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.21 | 11.4% | 6.8% | 2.2% | .301 | 3.27 | 11.3% | 4.6% | 64 | -0.94 | 3.27 | 171 | 70 |
| Wirfin Obispo R 2026 · 4.87 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.87 | 18.6% | 12.2% | 3.3% | .292 | 1.30 | 28.6% | 24.5% | 126 | -3.57 | 1.30 | 218 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 63 | 20.5% | 11.0% | 1.24 | 4.83 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |