Jackson Stephens
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.3 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION25 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.04
FIP4.04
xFIP6.94
SIERA5.51
K%21.4%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.8%
IP26
K†5050
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.3peak
2026
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
CT (10%)
SL (4%)
SI (25%)
CU (24%)
CH-1.1 (10%)
FB-1.2 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 26 | 26 | 145 | 616 | 97 | 30 | 11 | 12.1% | 5.6% | 2.0% | 2.97 | 3.90 | +2.5 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 27 | 26 | 151 | 638 | 131 | 41 | 7 | 16.6% | 7.1% | 1.6% | 3.33 | 3.44 | +3.5 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 29 | 164 | 717 | 131 | 60 | 22 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.50 | +1.7 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 45 | 7 | 82 | 375 | 68 | 28 | 11 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 3.0% | 5.14 | 4.27 | +0.7 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 47 | 2 | 84 | 375 | 80 | 36 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 1.9% | 5.14 | 3.85 | +1.2 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 2 | 60 | 256 | 54 | 19 | 3 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.3% | 3.62 | 3.14 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 23 | 5 | 45 | 187 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 22.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 2.78 | 2.76 | +1.0 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 1 | 50 | 218 | 51 | 18 | 4 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 1.8% | 3.78 | 3.38 | +0.7 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 22 | 4 | 49 | 189 | 42 | 15 | 1 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 0.6% | 2.57 | 2.85 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 26 | — | 26 | 108 | 23 | 9 | 2 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 4.04 | 4.04 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 24 | — | 24 | 99 | 20 | 9 | 3 | 20.6% | 9.1% | 2.6% | 4.21 | 4.32 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 295 | 102 | 831 | 3571 | 609 | 276 | 74 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +15.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 25 | 200 | 859 | 147 | 66 | 18 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Stephens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.04 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.32 | 20.6% | 11.5% | 24 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.7% | .338 | 4.07 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.63 | 2.73 | 410 | 89 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 88 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.66 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.66 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.24 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.58 | 3.57 | 137 | 87 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.06 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.22 | 2.63 | 144 | 87 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.43 | 17.2% | 6.2% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.64 | 22.0% | 14.1% | 185 | +0.21 | 2.51 | 251 | 86 |
| Tim Dillard R 2026 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 85 |
| Jean Machi R 2027 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 85 |
| Hector Ambriz R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 16.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .273 | 6.28 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 91 | +2.84 | 3.44 | 155 | 85 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 84 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 84 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.26 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.3% | .342 | 4.99 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.73 | 3.26 | 122 | 84 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2028 · 3.77 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.77 | 15.4% | 6.0% | 2.2% | .294 | 3.35 | 17.4% | 8.8% | 116 | -0.42 | 3.17 | 225 | 84 |
| Tommy Hunter R 2026 · 3.34 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.34 | 18.9% | 5.2% | 2.1% | .296 | 2.82 | 24.5% | 18.6% | 25 | -0.52 | 2.82 | 316 | 84 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 84 |
| Erik Davis R 2025 · 3.44 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.44 | 17.4% | 8.9% | 1.2% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.07 | 227 | 83 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.44 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.25 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.19 | 2.56 | 147 | 82 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 82 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 82 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 3.19 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.19 | 19.8% | 4.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 3.74 | 20.8% | 12.4% | 206 | +0.55 | 2.78 | 326 | 81 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 81 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.