Jackson Stephens
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.4
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'2" / 220 lbs
AAA
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA3.58
FIP3.97
xFIP6.94
SIERA5.51
K%21.6%
BB%8.7%
K-BB%12.9%
IP37
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5050
FB Velo
p3693.5
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p4321.2%
xwOBA vs
p730.290
CT (10%)
SL (4%)
SI (25%)
CU (24%)
CH-1.1 (10%)
FB-1.2 (53%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A+ | Daytona Tortugas | 26 | 26 | 145 | 616 | 97 | 30 | 11 | 12.1% | 5.6% | 2.1% | 2.97 | 3.95 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 22 | AA | Pensacola Blue Wahoos | 27 | 26 | 151 | 638 | 131 | 41 | 7 | 16.6% | 7.1% | 1.4% | 3.33 | 3.38 | +3.3 |
| 2017 | 23 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 33 | 29 | 164 | 717 | 131 | 60 | 22 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.52 | +1.4 |
| 2018 | 24 | MLB | Cincinnati Reds | 45 | 7 | 82 | 375 | 68 | 28 | 11 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 2.8% | 5.14 | 4.18 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Louisville Bats | 47 | 2 | 84 | 375 | 80 | 36 | 6 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 1.8% | 5.14 | 3.79 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 40 | 2 | 60 | 256 | 54 | 19 | 3 | 20.0% | 8.1% | 1.1% | 3.62 | 3.06 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 23 | 5 | 45 | 187 | 45 | 12 | 2 | 22.3% | 6.1% | 1.4% | 2.78 | 2.73 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 30 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 1 | 50 | 218 | 51 | 18 | 4 | 21.5% | 8.9% | 1.7% | 3.78 | 3.34 | +0.9 |
| 2025 | 31 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 22 | 4 | 49 | 189 | 42 | 15 | 1 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 0.6% | 2.57 | 2.84 | +1.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 155 | 33 | 13 | 4 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | 3.58 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 148 | 31 | 13 | 4 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 2.4% | 3.93 | 4.16 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 28 | 13 | 3 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 2.5% | 4.15 | 4.30 | +0.2 |
| 2029 | 35 | MLB | CIN | 31 | — | 31 | 132 | 26 | 12 | 3 | 19.3% | 9.3% | 2.6% | 4.33 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2030 | 36 | MLB | CIN | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 23 | 12 | 3 | 18.6% | 9.5% | 2.7% | 4.50 | 4.61 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 295 | 102 | 831 | 3571 | 609 | 276 | 72 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.75 | +14.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 71 | 25 | 200 | 859 | 147 | 66 | 17 | 17.1% | 7.7% | 2.0% | 3.91 | 3.75 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jackson Stephens (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.03 | 21.4% | 8.7% | 2.3% | — | 4.30 | 20.1% | 11.0% | 100 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 88 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 88 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 88 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 85 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 83 |
| Jonathan Broxton R 2026 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.65 | 22.0% | 7.3% | 2.7% | .256 | 4.36 | 20.5% | 9.0% | 16 | +0.71 | 3.65 | 137 | 82 |
| Manny Acosta R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 82 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.63 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 2.9% | .240 | 5.25 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.62 | 3.10 | 120 | 81 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.05 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.05 | 19.9% | 6.1% | 1.6% | .281 | 3.28 | 23.4% | 17.0% | 84 | +0.23 | 2.56 | 144 | 81 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 3.33 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.33 | 23.7% | 7.2% | 2.4% | .342 | 4.98 | 23.4% | 12.7% | 66 | +1.65 | 3.33 | 122 | 81 |
| Mike Broadway R 2025 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.9% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 80 |
| Josh Fields R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.46 | 21.4% | 6.5% | 2.5% | .224 | 7.56 | 18.9% | 9.5% | 25 | +4.10 | 1.85 | 238 | 80 |
| Matt Albers R 2026 · 3.13 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.13 | 18.8% | 4.7% | 1.9% | .252 | 4.47 | 20.4% | 13.3% | 147 | +1.34 | 3.13 | 244 | 80 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 80 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2029 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 80 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 79 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.45 | 22.6% | 11.6% | 1.4% | .236 | 3.18 | 22.5% | 11.1% | 91 | -0.27 | 2.48 | 147 | 79 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 79 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.3% | 3.5% | .314 | 3.37 | 20.2% | 14.3% | 39 | -1.44 | 3.37 | 144 | 79 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.