Josh Sborz

P Round Rock Express

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	30	MIX3 levels	30	0	27	6.33	2.73	28.1%	12.4%	0.6	K 24.6% · BB 5.8% · FIP 2.49
2025	31	MIX2 levels	12	1	12	5.25	5.27	20.7%	13.8%	—	K 20.7% · BB 13.8% · FIP 4.99
2026	32	MIX2 levels	40	0	44	5.68	6.12	22.1%	15.4%	—	K 19.9% · BB 13.1% · FIP 6.32
2027PROJ	33	MLBTEX	138	0	145	4.59	4.86	24.3%	11.0%	-0.5
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBTEX	7	0	7	4.94	5.17	23.4%	11.5%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBTEX	1	0	1	5.28	5.50	22.4%	12.0%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.6 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%65

FB Velo58

xwOBA vs48

Whiff%34

CompsAustin Adams (age 32) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 33) · Jon Edwards (age 31)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.59

FIP4.86

K%24.3%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%13.4%

Proj IP145

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 145 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF7070

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5895.1

Whiff%

p3423.0%

p6525.0%

xwOBA vs

p480.314

FB+1.9 (46%)

CU (23%)

SL-0.7 (31%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	3	22	97	25	9	3	23%	1.7	18.1%	6.8%	11.4%	2.7%	2.42	3.92	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	3	22	97	25	9	3	23%	1.7	25.8%	9.3%	16.5%	3.1%	2.42	3.82	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	19	125	505	125	36	10	63%	4.2	19.2%	8.1%	11.1%	2.4%	2.81	3.85	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	19	125	505	125	36	10	63%	4.2	24.8%	7.1%	17.6%	2.0%	2.81	3.00	—
2017	23	AA MLE	Tulsa Drillers	24	24	117	505	81	54	8	100%	4.9	13.0%	11.8%	1.2%	1.5%	3.86	4.30	—
2017	23	AA RAW	Tulsa Drillers	24	24	117	505	81	54	8	100%	4.9	16.0%	10.7%	5.3%	1.6%	3.86	3.99	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	53	225	71	20	1	0%	1.2	27.0%	9.4%	17.6%	0.5%	3.88	2.27	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	53	225	71	20	1	0%	1.2	31.6%	8.9%	22.7%	0.4%	3.88	1.81	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	59	257	75	18	4	0%	1.1	27.6%	6.8%	20.8%	0.9%	5.19	2.15	+1.7
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	59	257	75	18	4	0%	1.1	29.2%	7.0%	22.2%	1.6%	5.19	2.35	+1.6
2020	26	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	4	0	4	16	2	1	1	0%	1.1	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	2.08	6.27	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	4	0	4	16	2	1	1	0%	1.1	12.5%	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%	2.08	5.87	-0.1
2021	27	MLB MLE	Texas Rangers	63	0	59	257	69	31	7	0%	0.9	26.8%	12.1%	14.8%	2.5%	3.97	3.75	+0.6
2021	27	MLB RAW	Texas Rangers	63	0	59	257	69	31	7	0%	0.9	26.8%	12.1%	14.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.88	+0.5
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	2	45	189	62	21	6	5%	1.2	30.9%	11.4%	19.5%	3.2%	4.03	3.68	+0.5
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	2	45	189	62	21	6	5%	1.2	32.8%	11.1%	21.7%	3.2%	4.03	3.48	+0.6
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	0	56	231	73	17	9	0%	1.2	30.7%	7.9%	22.8%	3.5%	5.27	3.41	+0.8
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	0	56	231	73	17	9	0%	1.2	31.6%	7.4%	24.2%	3.9%	5.27	3.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	1.3%	6.33	2.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	24.6%	5.8%	18.8%	1.3%	6.33	2.49	+0.7
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	30	0	27	121	34	15	1	0%	0.9	28.1%	12.4%	15.7%	0.8%	6.33	2.73	+0.6
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	4.99	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	4.99	—
2025	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	1	12	58	12	8	2	8%	1.0	20.7%	13.8%	6.9%	3.4%	5.25	5.27	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	44	195	43	30	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	5.9%	5.68	6.32	—
2026	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	44	195	43	30	10	0%	1.1	19.9%	13.1%	6.8%	5.9%	5.68	6.32	—
2026	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	44	195	43	30	10	0%	1.1	22.1%	15.4%	6.7%	5.1%	5.68	6.12	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			154	1	163	697	193	67	23	1%	1.1	27.7%	9.6%	18.1%	3.3%	4.96	3.80	+1.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TEX	138	0	145	612	149	67	23	0%	1.1	24.3%	11.0%	13.4%	3.7%	4.59	4.86	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TEX	126	0	132	557	130	64	22	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	12.0%	4.0%	4.94	5.17	-0.9
2029	35	MLB MLE	TEX	113	0	118	500	112	60	22	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	4.4%	5.28	5.50	-1.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	TEX	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.5%	12.0%	4.0%	4.94	5.17	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	TEX	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	22.4%	12.0%	10.4%	4.4%	5.28	5.50	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	1	172	733	201	71	24	1%	1.1	27.5%	9.7%	17.8%	3.3%	4.96	3.84	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		189	1	200	853	234	83	28	1%	1.1	27.5%	9.7%	17.8%	3.3%	4.96	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		401	49	624	2656	593	258	63	12%	1.6	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	2.4%	4.12	3.74	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		129	16	200	851	190	83	20	12%	1.6	22.3%	9.7%	12.6%	2.4%	4.12	3.74	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Josh Sborz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	24.3%	11.0%	3.7%	—	5.33	23.0%	11.2%	250	+0.47	—	—	—
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	65
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	64
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	60
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	60
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	59
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	59
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	59
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	57
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	57
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	57
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	56
Aquilino López R 2008 · 3.70 FIP	33	SU	3.70	17.7%	5.2%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	207	56
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	55
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	55
Shawn Camp R 2009 · 3.73 FIP	33	SU	3.73	17.4%	7.5%	2.1%	.272	3.57	14.4%	9.7%	216	-0.16	2.79	589	55
Jared Burton R 2014 · 3.90 FIP	33	SU	3.90	16.9%	8.1%	2.2%	.263	3.99	25.1%	15.7%	14	+0.09	3.09	367	55
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	55
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	54
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	54
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.8	93	24.7%	11.0%	1.47	4.93
Calvin Schiraldi ('84-'91, 2 WAR*)	2.8	92	25.3%*	11.1%*	1.35*	4.71*
Ben Wade ('48-'55, 0 WAR*)	1.9	93	25.6%*	10.5%*	1.52*	4.69*
Rich DeLucia ('90-'99, 1 WAR*)	3.1	78	23.2%*	10.5%*	1.55*	4.65*
Robert Stephenson ('25)	1.9	62	25.9%	10.1%	1.54	4.59
Caleb Smith ('22)	2.2	112	24.9%	11.3%	1.69	4.55
Jake Faria ('23)	1.0	68	20.9%	10.3%	1.32	4.87