Drew Smith

P St. Paul Saints

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 190 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	MLBNYM	62	0	56	4.15	4.13	24.6%	11.9%	0.3
2024	30	MIX3 levels	24	0	23	3.97	3.85	26.3%	10.1%	0.2	K 29.1% · BB 11.4% · FIP 3.48
2026	32	AAAMIN	27	0	25	4.74	3.18	17.4%	8.3%	—	K 15.0% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.33
2027PROJ	33	MLBMIN	49	0	51	4.21	4.27	22.6%	8.8%	0.2
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBMIN	3	0	3	4.43	4.58	21.7%	9.3%	-0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBMIN	—	—	0	4.72	4.91	20.7%	9.8%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.5 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

K%87

Whiff%86

FB Velo52

xwOBA vs39

CompsTony Barnette (age 33) · Jose Manuel Lopez (age 32) · Arcenio Leon (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.21

FIP4.27

K%22.6%

BB%8.8%

K-BB%13.8%

Proj IP51

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5294.7

Whiff%

p8631.0%

p8729.1%

xwOBA vs

p390.325

SL+1.1 (12%)

SI (3%)

CU (8%)

FB (46%)

CH-0.6 (5%)

CT-2.5 (29%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	2	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	1.7	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	0.99	—
2015	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	2	0	3	14	5	1	0	0%	1.7	35.7%	7.1%	28.6%	0.0%	0.00	1.00	—
2016	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	35	0	49	199	62	20	0	0%	1.4	23.1%	11.9%	11.2%	0.0%	2.96	2.66	—
2016	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	35	0	49	199	62	20	0	0%	1.4	31.2%	10.1%	21.1%	0.0%	2.96	1.78	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	60	232	57	13	2	0%	1.4	19.5%	6.4%	13.0%	1.0%	1.65	2.81	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	60	232	57	13	2	0%	1.4	24.6%	5.6%	19.0%	0.9%	1.65	2.28	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	52	1	65	270	54	18	5	2%	1.2	17.4%	6.9%	10.5%	2.1%	3.05	3.64	+0.7
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	52	1	65	270	54	18	5	2%	1.2	20.0%	6.7%	13.3%	1.9%	3.05	3.27	+1.0
2020	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	8	0	7	29	7	1	2	0%	0.9	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	6.9%	6.43	5.28	-0.1
2020	26	MLB RAW	New York Mets	8	0	7	29	7	1	2	0%	0.9	24.1%	3.4%	20.7%	6.9%	6.43	5.24	-0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	32	1	43	173	41	13	7	3%	1.4	24.8%	7.3%	17.6%	4.3%	2.28	4.26	+0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	32	1	43	173	41	13	7	3%	1.4	23.7%	7.5%	16.2%	4.0%	2.28	4.21	+0.2
2022	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	0	50	203	59	16	9	0%	1.0	28.3%	8.0%	20.3%	4.8%	3.06	4.37	+0.1
2022	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	0	50	203	59	16	9	0%	1.0	29.1%	7.9%	21.2%	4.4%	3.06	4.04	+0.3
2023	29	MLB MLE	New York Mets	62	0	56	244	60	29	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.11	+0.3
2023	29	MLB RAW	New York Mets	62	0	56	244	60	29	7	0%	0.9	24.6%	11.9%	12.7%	2.9%	4.15	4.13	+0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.48	+0.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	29.1%	11.4%	17.7%	2.5%	3.97	3.48	+0.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	24	0	23	99	26	10	3	0%	0.9	26.3%	10.1%	16.2%	3.0%	3.97	3.85	+0.2
2026	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	15.0%	7.4%	7.6%	1.0%	4.74	3.33	—
2026	32	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	15.0%	7.4%	7.6%	1.0%	4.74	3.33	—
2026	32	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	27	0	25	109	19	9	1	0%	0.9	17.4%	8.3%	9.2%	0.9%	4.74	3.18	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			191	1	196	824	202	72	29	1%	1.0	24.5%	8.7%	15.8%	3.5%	3.48	4.06	+1.1
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	MIN	49	0	51	215	49	19	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.8%	13.8%	2.9%	4.21	4.27	+0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	MIN	44	0	47	197	43	18	6	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.58	-0.0
2029	35	MLB MLE	MIN	40	0	42	176	37	17	6	0%	1.0	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.91	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	MIN	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.3%	12.4%	3.2%	4.43	4.58	-0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.7%	9.8%	10.9%	3.5%	4.72	4.91	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		194	1	199	837	205	73	29	1%	1.0	24.5%	8.7%	15.7%	3.5%	3.50	4.07	+1.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		195	1	200	839	206	73	29	1%	1.0	24.5%	8.7%	15.7%	3.5%	3.50	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		332	2	381	1572	356	136	38	1%	1.1	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	2.4%	3.09	3.60	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		174	1	200	825	187	72	20	1%	1.1	22.6%	8.7%	14.0%	2.4%	3.09	3.60	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Drew Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.27	22.6%	8.8%	2.9%	—	4.74	21.2%	11.7%	88	+0.47	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	84
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	83
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	82
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	81
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	80
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	80
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	79
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	78
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	74
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	74
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	73
Ryan Brasier R 2021 · 4.85 FIP	33	SU	4.85	18.0%	8.0%	4.1%	.286	3.16	23.7%	17.9%	150	-1.69	2.31	426	73
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	319	73
Tommy Nance R 2024 · 3.51 FIP	33	SU	3.51	20.2%	5.8%	2.5%	.327	2.84	26.3%	19.5%	123	-0.67	2.08	360	73

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	23.3%	9.3%	1.31	3.88
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Dominic Leone ('24)	2.1	54	23.9%	10.4%	1.26	3.94
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*