Sam Clay prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Sam Clay P Toledo Mud Hens

Age 33 LHP 6'3" / 238 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 107115vR 123

ERA4.78

FIP4.81

K%20.4%

BB%11.0%

K-BB%9.4%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p2421.6%

p1015.9%

xwOBA vs

p300.335

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	10	72	323	73	38	3	45%	3.3	15.9%	14.1%	1.8%	1.1%	3.61	4.18	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	10	72	323	73	38	3	45%	3.3	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	0.9%	3.61	3.20	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	24	24	115	517	115	67	2	100%	4.8	16.6%	15.1%	1.5%	0.5%	4.60	3.91	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	24	24	115	517	115	67	2	100%	4.8	22.2%	13.0%	9.3%	0.4%	4.60	3.07	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	67	284	67	44	0	0%	1.6	18.4%	13.6%	4.9%	0.0%	1.87	3.26	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	67	284	67	44	0	0%	1.6	23.6%	15.5%	8.1%	0.0%	1.87	3.07	—
2018	25	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	34	1	52	244	61	36	1	3%	1.5	20.2%	16.2%	4.0%	0.5%	5.88	3.72	—
2018	25	AA RAW	Chattanooga Lookouts	34	1	52	244	61	36	1	3%	1.5	25.0%	14.8%	10.2%	0.4%	5.88	3.08	—
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	69	302	72	24	0	2%	1.5	19.9%	8.6%	11.3%	0.0%	3.25	2.50	—
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	69	302	72	24	0	2%	1.5	23.8%	7.9%	15.9%	0.0%	3.25	2.06	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	64	0	51	237	41	19	4	0%	0.8	15.9%	7.9%	7.9%	1.9%	5.08	3.79	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	64	0	51	237	41	19	4	0%	0.8	17.3%	8.0%	9.3%	1.7%	5.08	3.63	+0.6
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	47	0	48	216	50	21	4	0%	1.0	21.2%	9.5%	11.6%	1.7%	4.10	3.46	+0.6
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	47	0	48	216	50	21	4	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	1.9%	4.10	3.41	+0.7
2023	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	42	1	52	239	53	29	8	2%	1.2	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	4.1%	5.16	5.12	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Toledo Mud Hens	42	1	52	239	53	29	8	2%	1.2	19.1%	10.9%	8.2%	4.1%	5.16	5.12	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Toledo Mud Hens	42	1	52	239	53	29	8	2%	1.2	22.2%	12.1%	10.0%	3.3%	5.16	4.72	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			65	0	50	243	39	21	5	0%	0.8	16.0%	8.6%	7.4%	2.1%	5.90	4.09	+0.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	DET	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.4%	11.0%	9.4%	3.0%	4.78	4.81	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	DET	55	0	57	242	48	27	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.3%	4.93	5.06	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	DET	49	0	51	217	42	25	8	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.15	5.34	-0.5
2027	34	MLB CTX	DET	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.3%	8.5%	3.3%	4.93	5.06	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	DET	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	19.1%	11.7%	7.4%	3.6%	5.15	5.34	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	0	54	258	42	23	6	0%	0.8	16.3%	8.8%	7.5%	2.1%	5.84	4.01	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		254	0	200	957	156	85	22	0%	0.8	16.3%	8.8%	7.5%	2.1%	5.84	4.01	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		321	37	528	2362	428	293	26	12%	1.6	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	1.1%	4.12	3.74	-0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		122	14	200	894	162	111	10	12%	1.6	18.1%	12.4%	5.7%	1.1%	4.12	3.74	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sam Clay (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.81	20.4%	11.0%	3.0%	—	5.19	19.5%	8.0%	109	+0.38	—	—	—
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	85
Ryan O'Rourke L 2019 · 4.08 FIP	31	SU	4.08	22.1%	14.3%	1.9%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	3.05	145	78
Doug Creek L 2002 · 4.99 FIP	33	SU	4.99	21.4%	12.6%	3.8%	.288	5.79	17.1%	7.9%	36	+0.80	4.48	277	75
Adam Liberatore L 2018 · 4.28 FIP	31	SU	4.28	18.6%	9.1%	2.9%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	2.38	124	74
Zach Phillips L 2019 · 3.67 FIP	32	SU	3.67	19.1%	8.5%	2.0%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	2.33	202	73
Hideki Okajima L 2009 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	20.5%	7.0%	3.1%	.268	4.27	15.5%	8.5%	46	+0.32	3.05	238	73
Juan Pablo Perez L 2013 · 3.68 FIP	34	SU	3.68	25.2%	11.5%	2.3%	.250	3.68	26.5%	11.2%	51	-0.00	1.75	104	73
Kelly Wunsch L 2005 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	21.0%	11.4%	1.9%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.36	175	72
Brian Moran L 2022 · 4.20 FIP	33	SU	4.20	21.7%	7.0%	3.7%	.304	3.72	21.5%	14.5%	152	-0.48	1.80	421	72
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	71
Ryan Sherriff L 2023 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	21.9%	11.0%	2.1%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	2.96	245	70
Brian Shouse L 2002 · 5.54 FIP	33	SU	5.54	15.5%	11.3%	4.2%	.245	3.31	16.3%	10.7%	159	-2.23	2.32	339	70
Clay Rapada L 2015 · 3.84 FIP	34	SU	3.84	14.3%	8.0%	1.7%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	120	70
Scott Sauerbeck L 2005 · 3.75 FIP	33	SU	3.75	22.3%	8.9%	2.5%	.298	5.05	14.0%	0.0%	25	+1.30	2.79	386	67
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	67
Tommy Phelps L 2005 · 3.98 FIP	31	SU	3.98	13.2%	7.5%	1.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	120	65
Marlon Arias L 2017 · 3.73 FIP	32	SU	3.73	17.2%	7.7%	2.0%	.443	4.83	19.8%	8.6%	74	+1.10	3.73	154	65
Tom Martin L 2003 · 3.82 FIP	33	SU	3.82	24.3%	9.5%	2.9%	.226	3.99	16.2%	8.6%	106	+0.17	3.40	303	64
Edward Paredes L 2019 · 5.10 FIP	32	SU	5.10	21.5%	7.3%	5.3%	.364	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	130	64
Joey Eischen L 2003 · 4.00 FIP	33	SU	4.00	18.1%	5.4%	3.2%	.309	3.44	19.6%	10.3%	69	-0.56	2.13	294	64

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	56	18.9%	11.2%	1.16	5.16
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Pedro Borbón ('03)	1.4	45	18.5%	11.1%	1.10	4.68
Mike Matthews ('05)	1.2	61	16.3%	11.3%	1.07	4.54
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Tom Martin ('07)	1.6	53	15.8%	10.1%	1.02	4.92