Alec Mills prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Alec Mills P Louisville Bats

Age 34 RHP 6'4" / 205 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 52 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124116vR 108

ERA4.62

FIP4.77

K%18.9%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%9.3%

ROS IP53

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.6

Whiff%

p1015.5%

p1013.1%

xwOBA vs

p100.424

FB-0.9

SL-1.4

CH-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	21	113	472	111	14	3	100%	5.4	18.1%	3.4%	14.7%	1.0%	3.02	2.57	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Wilmington Blue Rocks	21	21	113	472	111	14	3	100%	5.4	23.5%	3.0%	20.6%	0.6%	3.02	1.86	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	23	129	527	126	35	10	85%	4.8	20.2%	6.3%	13.9%	2.1%	3.49	3.36	+2.4
2016	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	23	129	527	126	35	10	85%	4.8	23.9%	6.6%	17.3%	1.9%	3.49	2.97	+3.1
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	7	7	28	107	20	4	0	100%	4.0	10.8%	3.7%	7.1%	0.0%	2.57	2.65	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	7	7	28	107	20	4	0	100%	4.0	18.7%	3.7%	15.0%	0.0%	2.57	2.10	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	25	143	602	131	48	11	83%	4.8	19.6%	8.3%	11.3%	2.2%	4.73	3.68	+2.1
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	25	143	602	131	48	11	83%	4.8	21.8%	8.0%	13.8%	1.8%	4.73	3.28	+2.8
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	22	140	599	138	40	22	79%	5.0	21.1%	6.9%	14.2%	3.8%	4.50	4.30	+1.0
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	22	140	599	138	40	22	79%	5.0	23.0%	6.7%	16.4%	3.7%	4.50	4.03	+1.5
2020	28	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	11	11	62	252	46	19	13	100%	5.7	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	5.4%	4.48	5.46	-0.4
2020	28	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	11	11	62	252	46	19	13	100%	5.7	18.3%	7.5%	10.7%	5.2%	4.48	5.25	-0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	23	131	568	97	35	17	66%	3.7	16.9%	6.2%	10.7%	3.1%	5.10	4.16	+1.1
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	23	131	568	97	35	17	66%	3.7	17.1%	6.2%	10.9%	3.0%	5.10	4.11	+1.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	6	30	141	22	5	9	55%	2.8	14.7%	3.7%	11.0%	6.7%	7.71	6.01	-0.4
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	6	30	141	22	5	9	55%	2.8	15.6%	3.5%	12.1%	6.4%	7.71	6.00	-0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	9	32	149	20	17	7	69%	2.5	11.8%	12.3%	-0.5%	4.5%	6.47	6.11	-0.4
2023	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	13	9	32	149	20	17	7	69%	2.5	11.8%	12.3%	-0.5%	4.5%	6.47	6.11	-0.4
2023	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	13	9	32	149	20	17	7	69%	2.5	13.4%	11.4%	2.0%	4.7%	6.47	6.29	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			70	39	257	1105	213	77	43	56%	3.7	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.9%	5.00	4.51	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	CIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.9%	9.6%	9.3%	3.1%	4.62	4.77	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	CIN	7	7	44	186	33	19	6	100%	6.3	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	3.4%	4.91	5.11	-0.1
2027	35	MLB CTX	CIN	1	1	2	8	2	1	0	100%	2.0	17.9%	10.1%	7.8%	3.4%	4.91	5.11	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		70	39	260	1115	215	78	43	56%	3.7	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.9%	5.00	4.49	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		54	30	200	859	166	60	33	56%	3.7	19.3%	7.0%	12.3%	3.9%	5.00	4.49	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		183	147	808	3417	628	222	99	80%	4.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.40	3.97	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		45	36	200	845	155	55	25	80%	4.4	18.4%	6.5%	11.9%	2.9%	4.40	3.97	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alec Mills (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.77	18.9%	9.6%	3.1%	—	5.11	17.9%	7.8%	44	+0.34	—	—	—
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	64
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	62
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	61
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	59
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	59
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	58
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	58
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	57
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	57
Jon Leicester R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	36	SP	3.76	12.3%	5.9%	1.7%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	113	57
Walter Silva R 2009 · 5.72 FIP	32	SP	5.72	9.1%	12.4%	3.3%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.67	453	56
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	54
Jason Simontacchi R 2007 · 4.96 FIP	33	SP	4.96	13.0%	5.9%	4.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	356	54
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	53
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	1.83	480	53
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	53
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	53
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	53
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	53
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	52

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	70	19.0%	7.9%	1.44	4.94
Buddy Carlyle ('15)	1.5	58	18.5%	8.5%	1.32	5.14
Brian Matusz ('16)	2.6	76	19.8%	8.7%	1.34	4.92
Nelson Cruz ('03)	1.7	58	18.2%	7.2%	1.52	5.04
Brad Lincoln ('14)	1.1	56	17.4%	7.9%	1.30	4.74
JC Ramírez ('19)	1.4	72	16.4%	8.4%	1.44	4.71
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59