Matt Bowman

P St. Paul Saints

Age 36 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs AAA

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	33	MIX2 levels	52	1	64	3.08	3.88	24.7%	8.0%	0.5	K 22.5% · BB 7.6% · FIP 4.14
2025	34	MIX2 levels	51	1	61	4.84	4.22	19.8%	5.6%	0.2	K 17.9% · BB 5.3% · FIP 4.44
2026	35	AAAMIN	45	3	63	3.84	3.67	26.8%	7.8%	—	K 23.0% · BB 7.0% · FIP 4.07
2027PROJ	36	MLBMIN	162	0	170	4.54	4.62	19.1%	7.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ1% MLB	37	MLBMIN	1	0	1	4.83	5.02	18.0%	7.8%	-0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	38	MLBMIN	—	—	0	5.20	5.45	16.9%	8.5%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

xwOBA vs20

FB Velo10

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsKeiichi Yabu (age 36) · Francisco Del Rosario (age 36) · Pete Walker (age 36)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.54

FIP4.62

K%19.1%

BB%7.1%

K-BB%12.0%

Proj IP170

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 170 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1090.4

Whiff%

p1017.4%

p1015.8%

xwOBA vs

p200.348

SI (43%)

FB (46%)

CT-2.0 (25%)

SL-3.6 (20%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	24	AAA MLE	Las Vegas 51s	28	26	140	643	77	50	15	93%	5.0	10.5%	8.2%	2.4%	2.3%	5.53	4.53	—
2015	24	AAA RAW	Las Vegas 51s	28	26	140	643	77	50	15	93%	5.0	12.0%	7.8%	4.2%	2.3%	5.53	4.46	—
2016	25	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	59	0	68	281	52	18	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	1.5%	3.46	3.19	+1.1
2016	25	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	59	0	68	281	52	18	4	0%	1.1	18.5%	6.4%	12.1%	1.4%	3.46	3.13	+1.1
2017	26	MLB MLE	St. Louis Cardinals	75	0	59	247	46	16	4	0%	0.8	18.6%	6.5%	12.1%	1.7%	3.99	3.30	+0.9
2017	26	MLB RAW	St. Louis Cardinals	75	0	59	247	46	16	4	0%	0.8	18.6%	6.5%	12.1%	1.6%	3.99	3.24	+0.9
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	46	209	56	16	6	0%	1.1	25.1%	7.8%	17.2%	3.2%	5.28	3.74	+0.4
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	46	209	56	16	6	0%	1.1	26.8%	7.7%	19.1%	2.9%	5.28	3.40	+0.6
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	71	293	60	26	3	0%	1.3	19.0%	9.1%	9.9%	1.0%	2.79	3.21	+1.1
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	71	293	60	26	3	0%	1.3	20.5%	8.9%	11.6%	1.0%	2.79	3.06	+1.3
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	63	277	61	31	6	0%	1.2	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	2.1%	4.31	3.95	+0.4
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	63	277	61	31	6	0%	1.2	22.0%	11.2%	10.8%	2.2%	4.31	3.88	+0.5
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	64	263	65	21	9	2%	1.2	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	3.6%	3.08	4.14	+0.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	1	64	263	65	21	9	2%	1.2	22.5%	7.6%	14.9%	3.6%	3.08	4.14	+0.3
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	1	64	263	65	21	9	2%	1.2	24.7%	8.0%	16.7%	3.4%	3.08	3.88	+0.5
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	61	268	53	15	10	2%	1.2	17.9%	5.3%	12.7%	4.0%	4.84	4.44	+0.1
2025	34	MIX MLE	2 levels	51	1	61	268	53	15	10	2%	1.2	17.9%	5.3%	12.7%	4.0%	4.84	4.44	+0.1
2025	34	MIX RAW	2 levels	51	1	61	268	53	15	10	2%	1.2	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	3.7%	4.84	4.22	+0.2
2026	35	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	45	3	63	269	72	21	9	7%	1.4	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	3.7%	3.84	4.07	—
2026	35	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	45	3	63	269	72	21	9	7%	1.4	23.0%	7.0%	16.0%	3.7%	3.84	4.07	—
2026	35	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	45	3	63	269	72	21	9	7%	1.4	26.8%	7.8%	19.0%	3.3%	3.84	3.67	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			231	1	241	1040	194	71	24	0%	1.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.8%	2.3%	4.38	3.67	+2.5
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	36	MLB	MIN	162	0	170	718	137	51	24	0%	1.0	19.1%	7.1%	12.0%	3.4%	4.54	4.62	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	37	MLB MLE	MIN	141	0	148	626	113	49	24	0%	1.1	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.83	5.02	-0.8
2029	38	MLB MLE	MIN	121	0	128	538	91	46	23	0%	1.1	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.20	5.45	-1.3
2028	37	MLB CTX	MIN	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	18.0%	7.8%	10.2%	3.8%	4.83	5.02	-0.0
2029	38	MLB CTX	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	16.9%	8.5%	8.4%	4.2%	5.20	5.45	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		232	1	242	1046	195	71	24	0%	1.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.8%	2.3%	4.38	3.66	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		192	1	200	864	161	59	20	0%	1.0	18.7%	6.8%	11.8%	2.3%	4.38	3.66	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		458	31	635	2750	497	212	69	7%	1.4	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	2.5%	4.24	3.93	+0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	10	200	866	157	67	22	7%	1.4	18.1%	7.7%	10.4%	2.5%	4.24	3.93	+0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Matt Bowman (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.62	19.1%	7.1%	3.4%	—	5.22	17.5%	9.4%	276	+0.60	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	57
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	49
Pete Walker R 2005 · 4.79 FIP	36	SU	4.79	12.0%	9.2%	2.8%	.261	4.45	19.6%	11.6%	30	-0.34	4.45	327	49
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	48
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	48
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	48
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	46
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	45
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	45
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	44
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	43
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	43
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	42
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	40
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	40
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	37
Masato Yoshii R 2001 · 4.64 FIP	36	SW	4.64	12.8%	4.9%	3.6%	.281	4.15	13.4%	8.0%	131	-0.49	4.15	757	36
Jay Jackson R 2024 · 5.31 FIP	36	SU	5.31	25.4%	7.9%	6.1%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	261	34
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	34
Tony Pena Jr. R 2017 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	10.9%	4.3%	1.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	2.80	128	33

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.4	76	18.3%	7.8%	1.26	4.67
Morrie Martin ('49-'59, 3 WAR*)	3.0	76	17.2%*	8.3%*	1.25*	4.45*
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Tom House ('71-'78, 3 WAR*)	2.7	77	17.3%*	7.8%*	1.25*	4.14*
Anthony Swarzak ('21)	3.3	73	17.8%	7.3%	1.20	4.42
Rich Bordi ('80-'88, 1 WAR*)	1.9	74	20.8%*	7.3%*	1.22*	4.55*
Donne Wall ('02)	2.4	59	16.1%	7.7%	1.18	4.20