Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 126 | 522 | 136 | 42 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 19.5% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 1.0% | 2.64 | 3.18 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 126 | 522 | 136 | 42 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 26.1% | 8.0% | 18.0% | 0.8% | 2.64 | 2.35 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 5.6% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | -0.42 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | ROK | AZL Rangers | 2 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 100% | 2.5 | 50.0% | 5.6% | 44.4% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.10 | — |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 8 | 5 | 23 | 92 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 62% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 14.1% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 1.59 | 3.82 | +0.2 |
| 2020 | 25 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 8 | 5 | 23 | 92 | 18 | 13 | 1 | 62% | 2.8 | 19.6% | 14.1% | 5.4% | 1.1% | 1.59 | 3.81 | +0.2 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 7 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 3.6% | 21.8% | 5.3% | 7.94 | 4.33 | +0.0 |
| 2021 | 26 | MLB | Texas Rangers | 7 | 0 | 11 | 55 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 0% | 1.6 | 25.5% | 3.6% | 21.8% | 5.5% | 7.94 | 4.60 | -0.0 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 2 | 30 | 122 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 10% | 1.5 | 22.8% | 6.5% | 16.3% | 1.5% | 2.67 | 2.81 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 2 | 30 | 122 | 39 | 8 | 1 | 10% | 1.5 | 32.0% | 6.6% | 25.4% | 0.8% | 2.67 | 1.75 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 33 | 9 | 76 | 335 | 65 | 28 | 14 | 27% | 2.3 | 17.1% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 5.90 | 5.13 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 33 | 9 | 76 | 335 | 65 | 28 | 14 | 27% | 2.3 | 19.4% | 8.4% | 11.0% | 4.2% | 5.90 | 4.88 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 0 | 31 | 142 | 34 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 18.5% | 7.9% | 10.7% | 3.1% | 4.88 | 4.21 | — |
| 2024 | 29 | MIX | 4 levels | 24 | 0 | 31 | 142 | 34 | 15 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 13.4% | 1.4% | 4.88 | 3.20 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | SF | 53 | 0 | 55 | 233 | 44 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 9.3% | 3.0% | 4.87 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 49 | 0 | 51 | 216 | 40 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.96 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 45 | 0 | 47 | 198 | 36 | 21 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SF | 41 | 0 | 43 | 181 | 32 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 5.45 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | SF | 15 | 0 | 16 | 68 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 18.6% | 10.0% | 8.6% | 3.2% | 4.91 | 4.96 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 33 | MLB | SF | 23 | 0 | 24 | 101 | 18 | 10 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.1% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 5.06 | 5.19 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 34 | MLB | SF | 19 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 15 | 9 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 17.4% | 10.8% | 6.6% | 3.8% | 5.28 | 5.45 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 72 | 5 | 94 | 401 | 78 | 41 | 13 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.55 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 154 | 11 | 200 | 852 | 166 | 87 | 28 | 7% | 1.3 | 19.4% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.55 | +2.0 | ||
| Career | — | 117 | 41 | 303 | 1286 | 254 | 114 | 29 | 35% | 2.6 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.81 | +5.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 27 | 200 | 849 | 168 | 75 | 19 | 35% | 2.6 | 19.8% | 8.8% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 3.81 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Kyle Cody (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 18.9% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 5.19 | 18.1% | 7.7% | 141 | +0.45 | — | — | — |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 82 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 80 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 79 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 74 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 73 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 73 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 72 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 71 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2027 · 4.68 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.68 | 12.2% | 9.1% | 2.6% | .420 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.02 | 203 | 71 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2025 · 4.94 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.94 | 11.1% | 7.4% | 3.4% | .278 | 6.57 | 9.9% | 0.8% | 104 | +1.63 | 4.94 | 194 | 71 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 70 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 69 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 69 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 69 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 68 |
| Bradin Hagens R 2025 · 5.33 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.33 | 13.2% | 12.6% | 3.2% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 254 | 68 |
| Casey Coleman R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.98 | 15.2% | 7.9% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.00 | 18.4% | 9.4% | 78 | +0.02 | 2.86 | 306 | 68 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 67 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 67 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 49 | 18.3% | 10.1% | 1.30 | 5.02 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |