Ryan Burr

P Buffalo Bisons

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	29	AAATB	18	1	23	3.09	2.63	25.0%	3.3%	—	K 21.5% · BB 2.9% · FIP 2.81
2024	30	MIX2 levels	54	4	53	4.05	2.31	36.8%	9.1%	1.4	K 34.5% · BB 8.7% · FIP 2.50
2025	31	MIX4 levels	13	1	14	3.14	2.68	35.1%	12.3%	0.3	K 35.1% · BB 12.3% · FIP 2.66
2027PROJ	33	MLBTOR	55	0	58	3.85	3.87	26.1%	7.9%	0.5
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBTOR	3	0	3	4.04	4.17	25.2%	8.4%	0.0
2029PROJ1% MLB	35	MLBTOR	—	—	0	4.32	4.51	24.2%	9.0%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.8 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024

Whiff%90

K%90

xwOBA vs66

FB Velo44

CompsJoe Nelson (age 33) · Tony Barnette (age 33) · Jim Henderson (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 10799vR 91

ERA3.85

FIP3.87

K%26.1%

BB%7.9%

K-BB%18.1%

Proj IP58

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD7070

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p9031.9%

p9033.6%

xwOBA vs

p660.296

FB (23%)

SL (77%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Kane County Cougars	13	0	20	76	28	6	0	0%	1.5	27.3%	9.3%	17.9%	0.0%	0.46	1.98	—
2015	21	A RAW	Kane County Cougars	13	0	20	76	28	6	0	0%	1.5	36.8%	7.9%	28.9%	0.0%	0.46	1.17	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	23	103	20	9	0	0%	1.4	14.2%	10.0%	4.1%	0.0%	3.52	3.18	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	23	103	20	9	0	0%	1.4	19.4%	8.7%	10.7%	0.0%	3.52	2.53	—
2017	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	65	260	88	26	3	0%	1.5	25.5%	11.7%	13.9%	1.7%	1.65	3.34	—
2017	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	65	260	88	26	3	0%	1.5	33.8%	10.0%	23.8%	1.2%	1.65	2.20	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	61	252	57	30	6	0%	1.4	19.6%	14.2%	5.4%	2.1%	3.25	4.42	+0.1
2018	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	61	252	57	30	6	0%	1.4	22.6%	11.9%	10.7%	2.4%	3.25	3.99	+0.4
2019	25	MLB MLE	Chicago White Sox	16	1	20	86	20	8	3	6%	1.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.20	+0.1
2019	25	MLB RAW	Chicago White Sox	16	1	20	86	20	8	3	6%	1.2	23.3%	9.3%	14.0%	3.5%	4.58	4.27	+0.1
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	1	52	224	47	27	6	2%	1.1	20.2%	12.2%	8.0%	2.6%	3.10	4.34	+0.1
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	1	52	224	47	27	6	2%	1.1	21.0%	12.1%	8.9%	2.7%	3.10	4.34	+0.1
2022	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	10	0	11	47	9	5	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	6.4%	5.06	6.33	-0.2
2022	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	10	0	11	47	9	5	3	0%	1.1	19.1%	10.6%	8.5%	6.4%	5.06	6.47	-0.2
2023	29	AAA MLE	Durham Bulls	18	1	23	92	23	3	2	6%	1.3	21.5%	2.9%	18.6%	2.1%	3.09	2.81	—
2023	29	AAA RAW	Durham Bulls	18	1	23	92	23	3	2	6%	1.3	25.0%	3.3%	21.7%	2.2%	3.09	2.63	—
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	2.2%	4.05	2.50	+1.3
2024	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	34.5%	8.7%	25.8%	2.2%	4.05	2.50	+1.3
2024	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	4	53	231	85	21	5	7%	1.0	36.8%	9.1%	27.7%	2.2%	4.05	2.31	+1.4
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.66	+0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.66	+0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	4 levels	13	1	14	57	20	7	1	8%	1.1	35.1%	12.3%	22.8%	1.8%	3.14	2.68	+0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			102	6	110	468	116	51	16	6%	1.1	24.8%	10.9%	13.9%	3.4%	4.02	4.28	+0.4
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	TOR	55	0	58	245	64	19	7	0%	1.1	26.1%	7.9%	18.1%	2.9%	3.85	3.87	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	53	223	56	19	7	0%	1.1	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	3.2%	4.04	4.17	+0.2
2029	35	MLB MLE	TOR	45	0	47	200	48	18	7	0%	1.1	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	3.5%	4.32	4.51	+0.0
2030	36	MLB MLE	TOR	40	0	42	177	41	17	7	0%	1.0	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.9%	4.66	4.88	-0.2
2028	34	MLB CTX	TOR	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	25.2%	8.4%	16.8%	3.2%	4.04	4.17	+0.0
2029	35	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	24.2%	9.0%	15.2%	3.5%	4.32	4.51	—
2030	36	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.2%	9.6%	13.6%	3.9%	4.66	4.88	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		105	6	113	482	120	52	16	6%	1.1	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	3.4%	4.02	4.25	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		186	11	200	853	212	92	28	6%	1.1	24.8%	10.8%	14.0%	3.4%	4.02	4.25	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		279	8	343	1428	345	154	29	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.8%	13.4%	2.1%	3.02	3.56	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		163	5	200	833	201	90	17	3%	1.2	24.1%	10.8%	13.4%	2.1%	3.02	3.56	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Ryan Burr (OGILVIE)	—	—	3.87	26.1%	7.9%	2.9%	—	4.49	24.3%	15.3%	142	+0.62	—	—	—
Joe Nelson R 2008 · 3.08 FIP	33	SU	3.08	26.1%	7.8%	2.2%	.252	5.35	19.8%	5.5%	40	+2.27	3.08	139	88
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	86
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	82
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	79
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	78
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	76
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	76
Spencer Patton R 2021 · 3.04 FIP	33	SU	3.04	27.9%	8.7%	2.2%	.305	4.97	21.2%	10.4%	88	+1.93	2.79	239	76
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	76
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	75
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	75
Akinori Otsuka R 2005 · 3.05 FIP	33	SU	3.05	21.7%	9.4%	1.1%	.278	2.59	19.4%	14.2%	92	-0.46	2.39	232	75
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	74
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	74
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2001 · 2.79 FIP	33	SU	2.79	23.8%	3.4%	2.3%	.228	2.95	25.8%	18.5%	94	+0.16	2.76	223	72
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	71
Marcos Mateo R 2015 · 3.12 FIP	31	SU	3.12	28.0%	8.0%	2.5%	.247	—	—	—	—	—	3.12	104	71
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	71
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.5	52	24.8%	9.5%	1.30	4.12
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Colin Poche ('25)	1.1	54	26.7%	10.2%	1.32	4.01
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
Barney Schultz ('55-'65, 2 WAR*)	1.7	58	24.6%*	8.3%*	1.28*	3.93*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Buddy Schultz ('75-'79, 2 WAR*)	1.2	60	27.4%*	8.5%*	1.21*	4.14*