James Marvel
P
Round Rock Express
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION13 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.0%
IP13
K†5555
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.7peak
2026
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.365
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 24 | 24 | 119 | 502 | 91 | 34 | 10 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 3.49 | 4.45 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 26 | 167 | 681 | 122 | 40 | 11 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 3.80 | +3.1 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 180 | 741 | 145 | 49 | 14 | 16.6% | 7.1% | 2.9% | 3.46 | 4.19 | +2.5 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 25 | 22 | 132 | 582 | 98 | 51 | 21 | 14.8% | 9.2% | 3.3% | 5.26 | 4.84 | +0.9 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 35 | 9 | 94 | 415 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 6.05 | 4.06 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 6 | 24 | 118 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 11.2% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 7.88 | 3.99 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | TEX | 13 | — | 13 | 55 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | TEX | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 21.6% | 9.8% | 3.2% | 4.54 | 4.65 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 119 | 715 | 3039 | 440 | 236 | 77 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +9.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 33 | 200 | 850 | 123 | 66 | 22 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.25 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Marvel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.65 | 21.6% | 11.9% | 20 | +0.27 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 83 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.66 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.0% | .280 | 3.59 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.07 | 3.07 | 363 | 80 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 80 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.52 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.31 | 3.21 | 425 | 80 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.80 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2.8% | .181 | 5.05 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 159 | +1.25 | 3.24 | 592 | 79 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.79 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.8% | .265 | 3.93 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.86 | 2.85 | 227 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.47 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.93 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.46 | 1.60 | 312 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 77 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.6% | .319 | 2.62 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.69 | 2.01 | 380 | 76 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.06 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.5% | .243 | 4.48 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.42 | 3.03 | 256 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.23 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.3% | .289 | 3.49 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -0.74 | 2.51 | 373 | 75 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.94 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .292 | 3.77 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.17 | 3.15 | 272 | 75 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.66 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.66 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.3% | .308 | 4.62 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.96 | 3.66 | 348 | 75 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.60 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.8% | .338 | 3.59 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | -0.01 | 2.60 | 283 | 75 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.28 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.8% | .362 | 4.22 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.06 | 2.90 | 227 | 75 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.59 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.32 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.73 | 2.80 | 288 | 74 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.20 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 3.6% | .243 | 3.59 | 28.0% | 21.3% | 157 | -0.61 | 2.49 | 417 | 74 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 3.76 FIP | 31 | SU | 3.76 | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.1% | .240 | 5.21 | 20.2% | 12.3% | 42 | +1.45 | 3.03 | 120 | 74 |
| Ryan Cook R 2025 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.