James Marvel
P
Round Rock Express
+0.1
WAR
Age 32
RHP
6'4" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.38
FIP4.38
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.4%
BB%9.3%
K-BB%13.0%
IP19
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
K†5555
FB Velo
p1090.3
Whiff%
p1820.8%
K%
p1010.7%
xwOBA vs
p100.365
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Bradenton Marauders | 24 | 24 | 119 | 502 | 91 | 34 | 10 | 13.5% | 8.0% | 2.6% | 3.49 | 4.41 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Altoona Curve | 27 | 26 | 167 | 681 | 122 | 40 | 11 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 1.9% | 3.55 | 3.82 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 25 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 32 | 32 | 180 | 741 | 145 | 49 | 14 | 16.6% | 7.1% | 2.5% | 3.46 | 3.97 | +2.7 |
| 2021 | 27 | AAA | Indianapolis Indians | 25 | 22 | 132 | 582 | 98 | 51 | 21 | 14.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | 5.26 | 4.96 | +0.5 |
| 2022 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 35 | 9 | 94 | 415 | 62 | 31 | 8 | 13.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | 6.05 | 4.11 | +1.2 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Round Rock Express | 6 | 6 | 24 | 118 | 15 | 12 | 1 | 11.2% | 10.7% | 0.9% | 7.88 | 4.00 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | PIT | 19 | — | 19 | 79 | 18 | 7 | 2 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | 4.38 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | PIT | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 18 | 8 | 3 | 21.8% | 9.5% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 149 | 119 | 715 | 3039 | 440 | 236 | 75 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 42 | 33 | 200 | 850 | 123 | 66 | 21 | 14.5% | 7.8% | 2.5% | 4.30 | 4.22 | +2.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| James Marvel (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.38 | 22.4% | 9.3% | 2.9% | — | 4.50 | 21.8% | 12.3% | 20 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2027 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 83 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2026 · 3.21 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.21 | 20.2% | 6.9% | 1.7% | .382 | 4.32 | 17.9% | 11.7% | 379 | +1.11 | 3.21 | 425 | 81 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 81 |
| Brad Boxberger R 2026 · 4.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.77 | 22.8% | 10.1% | 4.2% | .280 | 3.48 | 27.2% | 17.5% | 149 | -1.29 | 3.02 | 363 | 80 |
| Rafael Martín R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.75 | 20.5% | 10.7% | 3.7% | .265 | 3.96 | 21.3% | 15.8% | 110 | -0.79 | 2.89 | 227 | 80 |
| Matt Shoemaker R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.74 | 22.2% | 8.3% | 2.7% | .181 | 5.12 | 18.8% | 11.1% | 159 | +1.38 | 3.20 | 592 | 79 |
| Logan Kensing R 2027 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| James Hoyt R 2026 · 3.45 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.45 | 22.2% | 9.9% | 1.8% | .355 | 5.57 | 22.1% | 10.4% | 50 | +2.12 | 1.61 | 312 | 78 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.37 | 23.2% | 9.2% | 3.8% | .319 | 2.59 | 28.5% | 21.7% | 186 | -1.78 | 2.00 | 380 | 77 |
| Louis Coleman R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.99 | 19.8% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .243 | 4.44 | 17.6% | 3.6% | 14 | +0.45 | 3.10 | 256 | 77 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 32 | SU | 5.19 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 4.6% | .362 | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.6% | 21 | -1.05 | 2.99 | 227 | 76 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.08 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .292 | 3.82 | 19.5% | 9.5% | 55 | -0.26 | 3.17 | 272 | 76 |
| Miguel Socolovich R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.54 | 20.8% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .338 | 3.57 | 18.4% | 13.7% | 42 | +0.03 | 2.65 | 283 | 76 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 76 |
| David Phelps R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.40 | 24.5% | 10.9% | 3.6% | .289 | 3.37 | 26.7% | 16.6% | 84 | -1.03 | 2.49 | 373 | 75 |
| Matt Belisle R 2029 · 3.20 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.20 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.8% | .300 | 3.38 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.18 | 2.49 | 174 | 75 |
| Fernando Salas R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.40 | 21.3% | 6.1% | 2.4% | .326 | 4.09 | 19.4% | 14.1% | 92 | +0.69 | 2.65 | 288 | 75 |
| Tyler Clippard R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 3.8% | .243 | 3.58 | 28.0% | 21.3% | 157 | -0.73 | 2.52 | 417 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.53 | 20.8% | 9.0% | 1.9% | .338 | 4.03 | 24.4% | 11.0% | 97 | +0.50 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.