Jake Faria prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Jake Faria P Worcester Red Sox

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 238 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 63 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 119111vR 103

ERA4.73

FIP4.80

K%20.6%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP63

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p4120.8%

xwOBA vs

p450.317

SL-0.8

FB-1.4

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	23	150	585	159	52	6	92%	6.0	21.6%	10.0%	11.6%	1.3%	1.92	3.25	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	23	150	585	159	52	6	92%	6.0	27.2%	8.9%	18.3%	1.0%	1.92	2.54	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	151	620	157	68	12	100%	5.6	21.2%	11.8%	9.4%	2.0%	3.99	3.88	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	151	620	157	68	12	100%	5.6	25.3%	11.0%	14.4%	1.9%	3.99	3.40	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	25	145	599	168	53	18	93%	5.4	26.4%	9.0%	17.3%	3.1%	3.28	3.73	+2.1
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	25	145	599	168	53	18	93%	5.4	28.0%	8.8%	19.2%	3.0%	3.28	3.49	+2.5
2018	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	25	18	96	414	78	45	15	72%	3.9	18.4%	11.0%	7.4%	3.7%	5.14	4.96	-0.1
2018	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	25	18	96	414	78	45	15	72%	3.9	18.8%	10.9%	8.0%	3.6%	5.14	4.91	-0.0
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	7	86	379	101	43	14	16%	1.9	24.1%	11.8%	12.3%	3.9%	4.50	4.71	-0.2
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	7	86	379	101	43	14	16%	1.9	26.6%	11.3%	15.3%	3.7%	4.50	4.37	+0.2
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	10	69	318	78	28	12	33%	2.3	22.8%	9.0%	13.8%	4.3%	5.58	4.70	-0.1
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	10	69	318	78	28	12	33%	2.3	24.5%	8.8%	15.7%	3.8%	5.58	4.31	+0.2
2022	29	AAA MLE	St. Paul Saints	12	9	43	206	39	27	9	75%	3.6	16.7%	13.8%	2.9%	5.5%	7.48	6.43	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	St. Paul Saints	12	9	43	206	39	27	9	75%	3.6	18.9%	13.1%	5.8%	4.4%	7.48	5.87	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	3.9%	6.89	5.31	-0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	16.1%	11.4%	4.7%	3.9%	6.89	5.31	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	9	63	297	56	40	10	41%	2.8	18.9%	13.5%	5.4%	3.4%	6.89	5.30	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			73	29	205	901	188	92	30	40%	2.8	20.9%	10.2%	10.7%	3.3%	4.87	4.51	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	BOS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	10.4%	10.3%	3.2%	4.73	4.80	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	BOS	9	9	57	242	48	26	8	100%	6.4	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	3.5%	4.95	5.10	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	BOS	8	8	51	217	41	25	8	100%	6.4	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.8%	5.24	5.44	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	3	13	3	1	0	100%	3.0	19.8%	10.9%	8.9%	3.5%	4.95	5.10	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	BOS	1	1	1	4	1	0	0	100%	1.0	18.8%	11.4%	7.4%	3.8%	5.24	5.44	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		74	30	209	916	191	94	31	41%	2.8	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.46	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		71	28	200	878	183	90	30	40%	2.8	20.8%	10.2%	10.6%	3.3%	4.88	4.46	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		213	128	804	3418	738	367	105	60%	3.8	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.32	+0.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		53	32	200	851	184	91	26	60%	3.8	21.6%	10.7%	10.9%	3.1%	4.22	4.32	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Faria (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.80	20.6%	10.4%	3.2%	—	5.26	19.3%	8.2%	109	+0.46	—	—	—
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	69
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	67
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	65
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	62
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	60
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	60
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	59
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	59
Mickey Jannis R 2021 · 5.68 FIP	33	SP-	5.68	12.1%	11.8%	3.8%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.82	659	58
Rolando Valdez R 2019 · 5.36 FIP	33	SP-	5.36	11.7%	7.6%	4.2%	.360	—	—	—	—	—	3.06	258	57
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	56
Elih Villanueva R 2017 · 5.48 FIP	31	SP	5.48	14.1%	6.0%	5.1%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.83	225	56
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	56
Thad Weber R 2017 · 5.25 FIP	32	SP-	5.25	13.2%	4.4%	4.9%	.398	—	—	—	—	—	4.40	378	56
Sergio Valenzuela R 2017 · 5.66 FIP	32	SP	5.66	10.6%	6.5%	4.8%	.355	—	—	—	—	—	3.66	244	56
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	55
Juan Delgadillo R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	32	SP	4.54	15.5%	7.2%	3.3%	.316	4.47	10.9%	4.7%	39	-0.07	4.47	143	55
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	54
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	54
Casey Lawrence R 2021 · 4.08 FIP	33	SP-	4.08	20.0%	5.2%	3.7%	.284	4.99	15.9%	10.6%	440	+0.91	3.57	1,374	54

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	63	20.4%	10.6%	1.31	4.91
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82
Josias Manzanillo ('04)	1.7	57	20.0%	10.2%	1.21	4.71
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Will Cunnane ('04)	1.4	46	18.9%	10.4%	1.25	5.26
Bobby Ayala ('99)	2.9	72	21.3%	9.7%	1.11	4.78
Jay Witasick ('07)	3.7	73	19.6%	11.0%	1.19	4.64