Spencer Turnbull

P Omaha Storm Chasers

Age 34 RHP 6'3" / 210 lbs AAA peak 1.5 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	30	MIX3 levels	15	15	57	6.79	4.40	20.3%	9.8%	0.3	K 18.4% · BB 10.1% · FIP 4.52
2024	31	MIX2 levels	18	7	56	2.88	3.70	26.0%	9.1%	0.6	K 26.1% · BB 9.0% · FIP 3.42
2025	32	MIX4 levels	19	16	71	7.48	4.27	18.6%	11.6%	0.5	K 15.5% · BB 10.7% · FIP 4.34
2027PROJ	34	MLBTOR	29	29	175	4.43	4.76	18.9%	10.4%	0.3
2028PROJ	35	MLBTOR	26	26	157	4.83	5.10	17.9%	11.0%	-0.4
2029PROJ	36	MLBTOR	23	23	139	5.21	5.47	16.9%	11.6%	-0.9

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.4 · Next 3 projected WAR -1.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control38Command41FB velo40

CompsKenshin Kawakami (age 34) · Manuel Flores (age 33) · Matt Buschmann (age 32)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 107

ERA4.43

FIP4.76

K%18.9%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%8.5%

Proj IP175

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 175 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†4545

CH (13%)

SI (6%)

CU (15%)

SL (30%)

FB-4.7 (42%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	15.6%	12.2%	3.4%	0.0%	3.01	3.33	—
2015	22	A RAW	West Michigan Whitecaps	22	22	117	503	106	52	0	100%	5.3	21.1%	10.3%	10.7%	0.0%	3.01	2.62	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	16.4%	10.7%	5.6%	2.2%	3.45	4.28	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	12	12	44	177	39	16	3	100%	3.7	22.0%	9.0%	13.0%	1.7%	3.45	3.30	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	15.9%	8.9%	7.0%	0.7%	3.70	3.29	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	21	112	458	102	35	4	100%	5.3	22.3%	7.6%	14.6%	0.9%	3.70	2.68	—
2018	25	MIX MLE	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	21.5%	9.4%	12.1%	1.0%	4.18	3.02	+3.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	5 levels	27	26	136	571	148	50	5	96%	5.0	25.9%	8.8%	17.2%	0.9%	4.18	2.50	+4.1
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.3%	8.8%	13.4%	2.2%	4.50	3.56	+2.5
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	152	669	153	58	14	100%	4.9	22.9%	8.7%	14.2%	2.1%	4.50	3.43	+2.7
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.9%	3.97	3.26	+1.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	11	11	57	242	51	28	2	100%	5.2	21.1%	11.6%	9.5%	0.8%	3.97	3.24	+1.2
2021	28	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.5
2021	28	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	9	9	50	201	44	12	2	100%	5.6	21.9%	6.0%	15.9%	1.0%	2.88	2.58	+1.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	18.4%	10.1%	8.3%	3.1%	6.79	4.52	+0.3
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	15	15	57	266	54	26	8	100%	3.8	20.3%	9.8%	10.5%	3.0%	6.79	4.40	+0.3
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.1%	9.0%	17.1%	2.5%	2.88	3.42	+0.8
2024	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	7	56	231	60	21	7	39%	3.1	26.0%	9.1%	16.9%	3.0%	2.88	3.70	+0.6
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.2%	7.48	4.34	+0.5
2025	32	MIX MLE	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	15.5%	10.7%	4.8%	2.2%	7.48	4.34	+0.5
2025	32	MIX RAW	4 levels	19	16	71	345	64	40	7	84%	3.7	18.6%	11.6%	7.0%	2.0%	7.48	4.27	+0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			81	68	363	1568	342	141	31	84%	4.5	21.8%	9.0%	12.8%	2.0%	4.31	3.49	+6.2
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	TOR	29	29	175	739	140	77	21	100%	6.0	18.9%	10.4%	8.5%	2.8%	4.43	4.76	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	TOR	26	26	157	663	119	73	21	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.2%	4.83	5.10	-0.4
2029	36	MLB MLE	TOR	23	23	139	587	99	68	21	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.47	-0.9
2028	35	MLB CTX	TOR	26	26	157	663	119	73	21	100%	6.0	17.9%	11.0%	6.9%	3.2%	4.83	5.10	-0.4
2029	36	MLB CTX	TOR	23	23	139	587	99	68	21	100%	6.0	16.9%	11.6%	5.3%	3.6%	5.21	5.47	-0.9
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		130	117	659	2818	560	282	73	90%	5.1	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.6%	4.63	4.11	+6.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		40	36	200	855	170	86	22	90%	5.1	19.9%	10.0%	9.9%	2.6%	4.63	4.11	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		185	170	852	3663	710	358	54	92%	4.6	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+4.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		43	40	200	860	167	84	13	92%	4.6	19.4%	9.8%	9.6%	1.5%	4.25	3.51	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Spencer Turnbull (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.76	18.9%	10.4%	2.8%	—	5.27	17.4%	6.2%	296	+0.51	—	—	—
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	80
Manuel Flores R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	33	SP	4.32	17.1%	7.4%	3.1%	.291	—	—	—	—	—	3.46	515	72
Matt Buschmann R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP	4.84	12.8%	8.4%	3.2%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	4.03	277	70
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	68
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	66
Michael Nix R 2016 · 4.60 FIP	33	SP	4.60	11.9%	11.6%	1.9%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.82	234	64
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	63
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	60
Albert Suárez R 2024 · 4.00 FIP	34	SP-	4.00	19.5%	6.8%	3.1%	.293	4.14	17.8%	10.6%	80	+0.14	3.58	616	59
Ryan Vogelsong R 2011 · 3.65 FIP	34	SP	3.65	18.5%	7.3%	2.2%	.274	3.90	18.6%	11.3%	478	+0.25	3.14	1,184	59
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	56
Logan Duran R 2016 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	15.3%	8.9%	1.5%	.299	3.66	15.5%	6.6%	29	-0.11	3.42	187	56
Masato Yoshii R 2000 · 5.32 FIP	35	SP	5.32	12.1%	6.5%	4.4%	.302	4.38	13.1%	8.0%	244	-0.94	4.15	757	56
Chris Smith R 2015 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP	3.79	20.0%	8.1%	2.5%	.306	4.41	18.4%	10.2%	285	+0.62	3.79	477	56
Francisco Rodriguez R 2017 · 4.43 FIP	34	SP	4.43	11.4%	8.2%	2.3%	.305	5.18	10.7%	1.4%	83	+0.75	3.16	334	55
Salvador Valdez R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	34	SP	3.87	9.4%	6.1%	1.4%	.328	4.30	17.1%	8.9%	38	+0.43	3.60	326	54
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.56	486	53
Frankie De La Cruz R 2017 · 3.77 FIP	33	SP	3.77	15.2%	8.0%	1.7%	.262	4.38	16.2%	8.2%	114	+0.61	2.87	262	52
Jesse Estrada R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	33	SP	5.39	8.3%	5.6%	4.2%	.285	4.34	14.4%	7.8%	85	-1.05	3.80	257	52
Orlando Hernandez R 2004 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	23.4%	10.0%	2.5%	.278	4.34	20.5%	11.7%	438	+0.57	3.35	1,315	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,853 starter careers (497 from 1990-2025 + 1,356 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.2	104	19.6%	10.1%	1.02	4.58
Daisuke Matsuzaka ('14)	4.0	99	20.9%	11.2%	0.97	4.45
John Patterson ('07)	2.3	76	21.2%	9.1%	1.19	4.32
Ian Anderson ('25)	1.4	94	22.2%	10.5%	0.99	4.22
Ken McBride ('59-'65, 7 WAR*)	4.0	135	19.7%*	10.0%*	0.98*	4.29*
David Palmer ('78-'89, 12 WAR*)	5.4	136	21.5%*	9.3%*	0.96*	4.30*
Bart Johnson ('69-'77, 6 WAR*)	4.0	116	21.6%*	9.7%*	0.97*	4.47*