Zach Thompson

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 33 RHP 6'7" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.4 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2022	28	MLBPIT	29	22	122	5.18	4.78	16.6%	8.5%	0.9
2023	29	MIX2 levels	25	25	108	4.49	4.60	17.4%	10.2%	—	K 15.0% · BB 9.4% · FIP 5.03
2025	31	MIX3 levels	19	6	41	5.98	4.82	17.6%	12.6%	-0.1	K 11.6% · BB 12.9% · FIP 5.24
2026	32	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	33	MLBATL	14	0	15	5.36	5.28	16.3%	12.2%	-0.1
2028PROJ6% MLB	34	MLBATL	6	0	6	5.49	5.58	15.4%	12.7%	-0.1
2029PROJMLE	35	MLBATL	1	0	1	5.75	5.92	14.4%	13.2%	-0.0

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.7 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2022

FB Velo19

xwOBA vs19

K%12

CompsPete Walker (age 33) · Marco Quevedo (age 32) · Angel Castro (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 132124vR 116

ERA5.36

FIP5.28

K%16.3%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%4.1%

Proj IP150

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 150 IP

Statcast · Contract

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1992.3

Whiff%

p4224.1%

p1216.6%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to the standard WAR scale.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	21	A MLE	Kannapolis Intimidators	16	16	75	335	64	37	2	100%	4.7	14.1%	13.0%	1.1%	0.9%	4.44	4.06	—
2015	21	A RAW	Kannapolis Intimidators	16	16	75	335	64	37	2	100%	4.7	19.1%	11.0%	8.1%	0.6%	4.44	3.22	—
2016	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	26	26	141	596	128	54	12	100%	5.4	16.1%	10.6%	5.5%	2.4%	3.77	4.42	—
2016	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	26	26	141	596	128	54	12	100%	5.4	21.5%	9.1%	12.4%	2.0%	3.77	3.54	—
2017	23	A+ MLE	Winston-Salem Dash	33	14	93	427	73	50	8	42%	2.8	13.2%	13.5%	-0.3%	1.8%	5.50	4.70	—
2017	23	A+ RAW	Winston-Salem Dash	33	14	93	427	73	50	8	42%	2.8	17.1%	11.7%	5.4%	1.9%	5.50	4.26	—
2018	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	75	310	76	29	4	0%	1.8	19.4%	10.5%	8.9%	1.6%	1.55	3.68	—
2018	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	75	310	76	29	4	0%	1.8	24.5%	9.4%	15.2%	1.3%	1.55	2.93	—
2019	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	76	334	84	24	15	0%	1.7	21.9%	7.7%	14.2%	4.3%	5.23	4.61	—
2019	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	76	334	84	24	15	0%	1.7	25.1%	7.2%	18.0%	4.5%	5.23	4.41	—
2021	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	14	90	384	87	29	10	41%	2.6	22.0%	7.6%	14.4%	2.9%	3.80	3.81	+0.8
2021	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	14	90	384	87	29	10	41%	2.6	22.7%	7.6%	15.1%	2.6%	3.80	3.58	+1.0
2022	28	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	29	22	122	543	90	46	19	76%	4.2	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.8%	5.18	4.85	+0.8
2022	28	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	29	22	122	543	90	46	19	76%	4.2	16.6%	8.5%	8.1%	3.5%	5.18	4.78	+0.9
2023	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	25	108	471	82	48	14	100%	4.3	15.0%	9.4%	5.6%	3.7%	4.49	5.03	—
2023	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	25	108	471	82	48	14	100%	4.3	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	3.0%	4.49	4.60	—
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	2.7%	5.98	5.24	-0.3
2025	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	11.6%	12.9%	-1.3%	2.7%	5.98	5.24	-0.3
2025	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	19	6	41	182	32	23	5	32%	2.1	17.6%	12.6%	4.9%	2.7%	5.98	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			57	36	200	870	159	74	25	63%	3.5	18.3%	8.5%	9.8%	2.9%	4.36	4.24	+2.7
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	33	MLB	ATL	14	0	15	63	10	8	2	0%	1.1	16.3%	12.2%	4.1%	3.0%	5.36	5.28	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	34	MLB MLE	ATL	96	0	100	424	65	54	14	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.3%	5.49	5.58	-1.1
2029	35	MLB MLE	ATL	74	0	78	328	47	43	12	0%	1.1	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	3.6%	5.75	5.92	-1.1
2028	34	MLB CTX	ATL	6	0	6	25	4	3	1	0%	1.0	15.4%	12.7%	2.7%	3.3%	5.49	5.58	-0.1
2029	35	MLB CTX	ATL	1	0	1	4	1	1	0	0%	1.0	14.4%	13.2%	1.2%	3.6%	5.75	5.92	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		63	36	207	897	163	77	26	57%	3.3	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.24	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		61	35	200	868	158	75	25	57%	3.3	18.2%	8.6%	9.6%	2.9%	4.39	4.24	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		270	123	821	3582	599	365	99	46%	3.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.50	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	30	200	873	146	89	24	46%	3.0	16.7%	10.2%	6.5%	2.8%	4.38	4.50	-0.9

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 AAAGwinnett Stripers · 27 IPFIP 5.08 → 5.24 (+0.17)K% 13.5% → 11.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	13.49%	—	×0.860	11.60%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	14.29%	—	×0.900	12.86%
HR / BF /BF	2.38%	÷0.961	×1.100	2.72%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors (Triple-A 2023+ robo-zone set: walks improve on promotion) — K ×0.86, BB ×0.90, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 92).

Result: FIP 5.08 → 5.24, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAColumbus Clingstones · 10 IPFIP 4.44 → 5.71 (+1.26)K% 27.3% → 22.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	27.27%	—	×0.810	22.09%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	9.09%	—	×1.100	10.00%
HR / BF /BF	4.55%	÷0.934	×1.200	5.84%

Factors used: pitcher AA level factors — K ×0.81, BB ×1.10, HR ×1.20. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 87).

Result: FIP 4.44 → 5.71, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 AAABuffalo Bisons · 105 IPFIP 4.62 → 5.03 (+0.41)K% 17.4% → 15.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	17.39%	—	×0.860	14.96%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.43%	—	×0.900	9.39%
HR / BF /BF	3.04%	÷0.916	×1.100	3.65%

Result: FIP 4.62 → 5.03, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2021 AAAJacksonville Jumbo Shrimp · 15 IPFIP 4.08 → 5.17 (+1.10)K% 30.4% → 26.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	30.43%	—	×0.880	26.78%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	2.90%	—	×1.050	3.04%
HR / BF /BF	5.80%	÷0.886	×1.100	7.20%

Factors used: pitcher AAA level factors — K ×0.88, BB ×1.05, HR ×1.10. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 77).

Result: FIP 4.08 → 5.17, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AAACharlotte Knights · 70 IPFIP 4.56 → 4.61 (+0.06)K% 24.9% → 21.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.92%	—	×0.880	21.93%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.35%	—	×1.050	7.72%
HR / BF /BF	4.79%	÷1.212	×1.100	4.35%

Result: FIP 4.56 → 4.61, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2019 AABirmingham Barons · 5 IPFIP 1.29 → 1.81 (+0.52)K% 28.6% → 23.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	28.57%	—	×0.810	23.14%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	4.76%	—	×1.100	5.24%
HR / BF /BF	0.00%	÷0.993	×1.200	0.00%

Result: FIP 1.29 → 1.81, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 AABirmingham Barons · 40 IPFIP 3.43 → 4.23 (+0.80)K% 24.4% → 19.8%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.39%	—	×0.810	19.76%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	10.98%	—	×1.100	12.07%
HR / BF /BF	1.83%	÷0.949	×1.200	2.31%

Result: FIP 3.43 → 4.23, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2018 A+Winston-Salem Dash · 35 IPFIP 2.35 → 3.06 (+0.71)K% 24.7% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	= MLE
K% /BF	24.66%	—	×0.770	18.99%
BB% (unintentional) /BF	7.53%	—	×1.150	8.66%
HR / BF /BF	0.68%	÷1.014	×1.250	0.84%

Factors used: pitcher A+ level factors — K ×0.77, BB ×1.15, HR ×1.25. Pitcher translation is level-wide (no per-league rows, no age adjustment); HR/BF is park-adjusted at half strength (park HR factor 103).

Result: FIP 2.35 → 3.06, computed from the rates in the table with the same formula before and after. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression is applied when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Zach Thompson (OGILVIE)	—	—	—	—	—	3.0%	—	5.73	15.0%	2.0%	178	+0.45	—	—	—
Pete Walker R 2002 · 4.59 FIP	33	SP-	4.59	13.4%	7.7%	3.0%	.279	5.16	12.0%	2.8%	139	+0.57	4.45	327	62
Marco Quevedo R 2019 · 5.17 FIP	32	SP-	5.17	13.6%	11.4%	3.2%	.344	—	—	—	—	—	4.13	300	61
Angel Castro R 2016 · 5.42 FIP	33	SW	5.42	12.3%	9.1%	4.0%	.304	3.51	14.5%	7.1%	139	-1.91	3.51	292	60
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2017 · 5.96 FIP	32	SW	5.96	10.0%	13.0%	3.8%	.316	4.50	21.3%	16.2%	15	-1.46	3.39	212	60
Deck McGuire R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	33	SP-	5.12	15.7%	13.1%	3.1%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.41	622	57
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	56
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	56
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2018 · 4.89 FIP	33	SP-	4.89	17.9%	7.6%	4.3%	.322	4.82	15.9%	9.5%	147	-0.07	3.97	567	55
Osvaldo Fernandez R 2001 · 4.53 FIP	32	SP-	4.53	9.6%	8.2%	2.2%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.25	387	54
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	54
David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.67 FIP	30	SP-	5.67	7.5%	10.3%	3.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	5.67	100	52
R.A. Dickey R 2008 · 4.96 FIP	33	SW	4.96	11.6%	9.4%	3.0%	.287	3.78	14.9%	8.6%	447	-1.18	3.14	2,070	51
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	51
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	49
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	48
Mike Burns R 2009 · 4.90 FIP	31	SP-	4.90	17.2%	6.6%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	104	47
Zach Neal R 2022 · 5.53 FIP	33	SP-	5.53	16.1%	5.7%	5.6%	.321	5.98	15.6%	9.6%	101	+0.45	4.24	732	47
Miguel Ruiz R 2017 · 5.60 FIP	31	SP	5.60	10.6%	11.0%	3.6%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	5.60	117	46
Andres Ivan Meza R 2019 · 4.33 FIP	32	SP	4.33	11.7%	7.7%	2.3%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	275	45
Shawn Haviland R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	31	SP-	5.00	16.3%	8.1%	4.1%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	3.69	283	44

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 2,161 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 910 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.6	106	16.6%	11.1%	1.19	5.06
Mike Jones ('80-'85, -0 WAR*)	1.1	75	16.0%*	10.9%*	1.16*	4.80*
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Rich Yett ('85-'90, -0 WAR*)	2.1	104	16.6%*	10.2%*	1.31*	5.04*
Darrell Brandon ('66-'73, -1 WAR*)	3.0	118	17.5%*	10.8%*	1.25*	4.74*
Brian Tallet ('11)	2.3	92	16.5%	10.4%	1.13	4.79