Zach Thompson
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 32
RHP
6'7" / 250 lbs
AAA
peak 0.2 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION20 proj IP · Marcel + aging
ERA5.07
FIP5.09
xFIP4.42
SIERA3.78
K%17.8%
BB%11.3%
K-BB%6.5%
IP21
K†4040
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.2peak
2026
FB Velo
p1992.3
Whiff%
p4224.1%
K%
p1216.6%
xwOBA vs
p190.349
FB+1.7 (45%)
CT+0.7 (27%)
CH (13%)
SI (5%)
CU (15%)
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.4 (SP) / 4.55 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 21 | A | Kannapolis Intimidators | 16 | 16 | 75 | 335 | 64 | 37 | 2 | 14.1% | 13.0% | 1.1% | 4.44 | 4.17 | +0.6 |
| 2016 | 22 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 26 | 26 | 141 | 596 | 128 | 54 | 12 | 16.1% | 10.6% | 2.3% | 3.77 | 4.37 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 23 | A+ | Winston-Salem Dash | 33 | 14 | 93 | 427 | 73 | 50 | 8 | 13.2% | 13.5% | 1.5% | 5.50 | 4.52 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 24 | AA | Birmingham Barons | 43 | 0 | 75 | 310 | 76 | 29 | 4 | 19.4% | 10.5% | 1.7% | 1.55 | 3.71 | +1.0 |
| 2019 | 25 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 45 | 0 | 76 | 334 | 84 | 24 | 15 | 21.9% | 7.7% | 3.7% | 5.23 | 4.26 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 27 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 34 | 14 | 90 | 384 | 87 | 29 | 10 | 22.0% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 3.80 | 3.92 | +1.3 |
| 2022 | 28 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 29 | 22 | 122 | 543 | 90 | 46 | 19 | 16.6% | 8.5% | 3.5% | 5.18 | 4.71 | +1.0 |
| 2023 | 29 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 25 | 25 | 108 | 471 | 82 | 48 | 14 | 15.3% | 11.0% | 4.0% | 4.49 | 5.40 | -0.0 |
| 2025 | 31 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 19 | 6 | 41 | 182 | 32 | 23 | 5 | 11.9% | 15.0% | 2.8% | 5.98 | 5.56 | -0.5 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 32 | MLB | ATL | 19 | — | 19 | 81 | 15 | 9 | 2 | 17.8% | 11.3% | 3.1% | 5.07 | 5.09 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 33 | MLB | ATL | 20 | — | 20 | 84 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 17.0% | 11.8% | 3.3% | 5.25 | 5.37 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 270 | 123 | 821 | 3582 | 601 | 377 | 97 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +8.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 66 | 30 | 200 | 873 | 146 | 92 | 24 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 2.7% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Zach Thompson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.09 | 17.8% | 11.3% | 3.1% | — | 5.37 | 17.0% | 5.2% | 20 | +0.28 | — | — | — |
| Eddie Gamboa R 2026 · 5.65 FIP | 32 | SP | 5.65 | 12.1% | 11.0% | 4.0% | .292 | 4.62 | 13.4% | 5.8% | 34 | -1.03 | 2.92 | 385 | 43 |
| Matt Buschmann R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.71 | 12.8% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 277 | 43 |
| Felipe Paulino R 2025 · 4.68 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.68 | 15.8% | 11.8% | 2.6% | .312 | 4.79 | 15.0% | 4.8% | 26 | +0.11 | 4.68 | 150 | 43 |
| David Fletcher R 2024 · 5.92 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.92 | 7.6% | 10.5% | 3.9% | .294 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.92 | 100 | 42 |
| Alex Caldera R 2024 · 4.61 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.61 | 11.9% | 11.1% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.61 | 120 | 42 |
| Hector Galvan R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 31 | SP- | 4.64 | 14.3% | 12.2% | 2.2% | .357 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.58 | 406 | 42 |
| Clay Buchholz R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 31 | SP | 4.87 | 15.8% | 9.2% | 3.5% | .260 | 4.11 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 180 | -0.76 | 2.49 | 433 | 41 |
| Nate Long R 2023 · 4.86 FIP | 29 | SP | 4.86 | 14.8% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.86 | 151 | 41 |
| Francisco Cordova R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.78 | 7.1% | 7.7% | 2.4% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.78 | 115 | 40 |
| Edwin Jackson R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.15 | 15.7% | 10.1% | 3.8% | .312 | 5.23 | 17.5% | 7.7% | 369 | +0.08 | 3.69 | 521 | 39 |
| Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 2026 · 5.02 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.02 | 14.0% | 6.6% | 4.1% | .268 | 5.32 | 17.5% | 9.7% | 166 | +0.30 | 3.84 | 567 | 39 |
| Josh Zeid R 2024 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 39 |
| Daniel McCutchen R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.47 | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.6% | .268 | 4.60 | 10.8% | 4.9% | 155 | +0.13 | 4.47 | 287 | 39 |
| Juan Delgadillo R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.5% | 7.2% | 4.1% | .316 | 4.56 | 10.9% | 4.7% | 39 | -0.38 | 4.56 | 143 | 38 |
| Daniel Guerrero R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.49 | 10.2% | 9.0% | 2.0% | .328 | 5.22 | 14.7% | 3.6% | 57 | +0.73 | 4.49 | 269 | 35 |
| Josh Roenicke R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 32 | SP- | 5.12 | 10.9% | 7.0% | 3.8% | .353 | 3.44 | 19.2% | 11.5% | 160 | -1.68 | 3.29 | 283 | 34 |
| Cody Mincey R 2024 · 5.46 FIP | 30 | SP- | 5.46 | 13.9% | 8.4% | 4.5% | .297 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.46 | 147 | 33 |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.97 | 10.4% | 8.5% | 3.0% | .342 | 5.65 | 14.5% | 3.9% | 120 | +0.68 | 3.70 | 404 | 33 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.70 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.70 | 15.9% | 9.6% | 3.1% | .257 | 4.83 | 18.8% | 6.3% | 174 | +0.13 | 4.02 | 748 | 33 |
| Marco Carrillo R 2026 · 6.57 FIP | 32 | SP- | 6.57 | 9.9% | 9.1% | 5.8% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.94 | 194 | 33 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.