Yacksel Ríos
P
Iowa Cubs
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.50
FIP4.50
xFIP14.63
SIERA12.33
K%22.7%
BB%11.0%
K-BB%11.7%
IP22
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF5555
CTRL3535
CMD4040
K†6060
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
FB-2.2
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 26 | 10 | 88 | 358 | 71 | 20 | 4 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 1.2% | 2.75 | 3.30 | +1.9 |
| 2016 | 23 | AA | Reading Fightin Phils | 37 | 7 | 78 | 350 | 64 | 36 | 4 | 14.5% | 11.6% | 1.5% | 5.74 | 4.19 | +0.8 |
| 2017 | 24 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 50 | 1 | 73 | 287 | 81 | 21 | 9 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 2.48 | 3.60 | +1.2 |
| 2018 | 25 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 58 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 2.9% | 5.68 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54 | 0 | 62 | 297 | 61 | 33 | 10 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 3.8% | 6.06 | 5.08 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 9.00 | — | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 4 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 2.0% | 3.64 | 3.64 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 30 | 1 | 33 | 157 | 38 | 29 | 4 | 21.3% | 19.4% | 1.9% | 4.91 | 4.82 | +0.0 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Oakland Athletics | 25 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 26.7% | 8.5% | 2.3% | 4.67 | 3.17 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 30 | 22 | 2 | 19.6% | 17.1% | 1.6% | 3.30 | 4.47 | +0.2 |
| 2025 | 32 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | AAA | Iowa Cubs | 5 | 0 | 8 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 2 | — | — | — | 3.52 | — | — |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 22 | — | 22 | 93 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 25.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | 4.62 | 4.50 | +0.1 |
| 2026 Total | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 30 | 125 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 23.5% | 12.2% | 3.8% | 4.34 | 3.34 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 21 | — | 21 | 89 | 21 | 11 | 3 | 24.2% | 12.0% | 3.0% | 4.61 | 4.62 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 359 | 20 | 512 | 2226 | 436 | 243 | 52 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.11 | +6.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 8 | 200 | 870 | 170 | 95 | 20 | 19.6% | 10.9% | 2.3% | 4.41 | 4.11 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yacksel Ríos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.50 | 25.1% | 12.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.62 | 24.2% | 12.2% | 21 | +0.12 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 86 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 80 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 78 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.47 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.47 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.9% | .263 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.49 | 3.98 | 104 | 78 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.43 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.43 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.39 | 132 | 78 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 77 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.08 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.08 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.9% | .279 | 5.52 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +1.44 | 2.61 | 157 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.18 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.8% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.28 | 2.80 | 284 | 75 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.38 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.38 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.6% | .356 | 4.65 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.27 | 2.80 | 410 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Huascar Brazobán R 2026 · 3.46 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.46 | 25.3% | 11.3% | 1.9% | .304 | 3.46 | 22.4% | 12.4% | 128 | +0.00 | 3.08 | 303 | 74 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.53 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.4% | .238 | 3.71 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.82 | 1.94 | 268 | 74 |
| Blake Wood R 2024 · 3.35 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.35 | 25.3% | 9.3% | 2.2% | .364 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.91 | 210 | 74 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.49 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.7% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.73 | 110 | 73 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2025 · 3.38 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.38 | 24.3% | 12.4% | 1.4% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.38 | 129 | 73 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.28 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.28 | 21.9% | 8.5% | 5.4% | .312 | 5.01 | 16.4% | 6.4% | 49 | -0.27 | 2.30 | 153 | 73 |
| Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2025 · 3.65 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.65 | 22.7% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .255 | 4.50 | 24.1% | 13.8% | 97 | +0.85 | 3.38 | 212 | 73 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.