Yacksel Ríos — OGILVIE

Yacksel Ríos P Iowa Cubs

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.96

FIP4.86

K%22.4%

BB%13.2%

K-BB%9.2%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL3535

CMD4040

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p8496.9

Whiff%

p5125.5%

p3620.2%

xwOBA vs

p260.340

FB-2.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A+ MLE	Clearwater Threshers	26	10	88	358	71	20	4	38%	3.4	15.3%	6.4%	8.8%	1.3%	2.75	3.31	—
2015	22	A+ RAW	Clearwater Threshers	26	10	88	358	71	20	4	38%	3.4	19.8%	5.6%	14.2%	1.1%	2.75	2.76	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	37	7	78	350	64	36	4	19%	2.1	14.5%	11.6%	2.9%	1.5%	5.74	4.18	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	37	7	78	350	64	36	4	19%	2.1	18.3%	10.3%	8.0%	1.1%	5.74	3.51	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	50	1	73	287	81	21	9	2%	1.5	24.4%	7.7%	16.7%	3.1%	2.48	3.71	+0.7
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	50	1	73	287	81	21	9	2%	1.5	28.2%	7.3%	20.9%	3.1%	2.48	3.35	+1.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	58	0	59	269	62	30	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	11.5%	10.4%	2.9%	5.68	4.32	+0.2
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	58	0	59	269	62	30	8	0%	1.0	23.0%	11.2%	11.9%	3.0%	5.68	4.29	+0.2
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	54	0	62	297	61	33	10	0%	1.2	18.6%	11.5%	7.0%	3.8%	6.06	5.07	-0.4
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	54	0	62	297	61	33	10	0%	1.2	20.5%	11.1%	9.4%	3.4%	6.06	4.82	-0.2
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	4	17	3	2	0	0%	1.3	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	0.0%	9.00	3.10	+0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	47	194	48	21	4	0%	1.2	23.2%	11.0%	12.2%	2.0%	3.64	3.64	+0.5
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	47	194	48	21	4	0%	1.2	24.7%	10.8%	13.9%	2.1%	3.64	3.50	+0.6
2022	29	AAA MLE	Charlotte Knights	30	1	33	157	38	29	4	3%	1.1	21.3%	19.4%	1.9%	2.0%	4.91	4.84	—
2022	29	AAA RAW	Charlotte Knights	30	1	33	157	38	29	4	3%	1.1	24.2%	18.5%	5.7%	2.5%	4.91	5.01	—
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	27	113	32	14	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	2.3%	4.67	3.14	+0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	25	0	27	113	32	14	3	0%	1.1	25.2%	7.3%	17.9%	2.3%	4.67	3.14	+0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	25	0	27	113	32	14	3	0%	1.1	28.3%	12.4%	15.9%	2.7%	4.67	3.73	+0.3
2024	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.7%	3.8%	1.5%	3.30	4.24	—
2024	31	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	18.4%	14.7%	3.8%	1.5%	3.30	4.24	—
2024	31	AAA RAW	Syracuse Mets	27	0	30	135	30	22	2	0%	1.1	22.2%	16.3%	5.9%	1.5%	3.30	4.17	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	6.33	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	6.33	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	4	1	3	17	3	2	1	25%	0.8	17.6%	11.8%	5.9%	5.9%	18.00	7.43	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			93	0	100	453	95	53	18	0%	1.1	21.0%	11.7%	9.3%	4.0%	6.21	5.13	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	12	0	19	79	17	10	5	0%	1.6	16.8%	12.2%	4.7%	7.4%	3.86	7.30	—
YTD	33	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	12	0	19	79	17	10	5	0%	1.6	16.8%	12.2%	4.7%	7.4%	3.86	7.30	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	33	AAA RAW	CHC	11	0	17	74	15	10	5	0%	1.5	20.3%	13.5%	6.8%	6.8%	4.24	6.81	—
2026	33	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	2	5	2	0	0	0%	1.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
SO FAR	33	MLB RAW	CHC	1	0	2	5	2	0	0	0%	1.7	40.0%	0.0%	40.0%	0.0%	0.00	-0.28	—
ROS	33	MLB MLE	CHC	4	0	5	19	4	3	1	0%	1.1	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.86	-0.0
ROS	33	MLB CTX	CHC	5	0	5	21	5	3	1	0%	1.0	22.4%	13.2%	9.2%	2.9%	4.96	4.86	-0.0
2026 TOT	33	MLB MLE	CHC	—	—	23	98	21	13	6	—	—	21.7%	12.8%	8.9%	5.7%	4.07	6.82	-0.6
FULL	33	MLB A+C	CHC	—	—	6	26	21	13	6	—	—	81.5%	48.0%	33.6%	21.3%	15.28	13.99	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CHC	46	0	49	206	44	28	7	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.2%	5.08	5.17	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	CHC	42	0	44	185	38	26	7	0%	1.0	20.5%	14.2%	6.3%	3.6%	5.33	5.50	-0.5
2027	34	MLB CTX	CHC	44	0	46	194	42	27	6	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.7%	7.8%	3.2%	5.08	5.17	-0.3
2028	35	MLB CTX	CHC	38	0	40	169	35	24	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.2%	6.3%	3.6%	5.33	5.50	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		179	0	191	835	176	106	31	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.72	4.96	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		188	0	200	877	185	111	33	0%	1.1	21.0%	12.7%	8.3%	3.7%	5.72	4.96	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		366	20	523	2273	440	244	56	5%	1.4	19.4%	10.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.41	4.18	-1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		140	8	200	869	168	93	22	5%	1.4	19.4%	10.7%	8.6%	2.5%	4.41	4.18	-1.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Yacksel Ríos (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.86	22.4%	13.2%	2.9%	—	5.33	21.0%	7.1%	92	+0.47	—	—	—
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	84
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	82
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	80
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	79
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	79
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	77
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	76
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	74
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	74
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	74
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	74
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	73
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	173	73
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	72
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	71
Alexi Ogando R 2016 · 3.79 FIP	32	SU	3.79	19.6%	12.2%	1.5%	.303	4.10	15.0%	8.6%	35	+0.31	3.79	132	71
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.75 FIP	33	SU	4.75	19.6%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	70
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	21.5%	13.7%	1.24	5.11
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22