Yacksel Ríos
P
Iowa Cubs
Age 33
RHP
6'3" / 215 lbs
AAA
2026 ROS PROJECTION19 act + 52 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131122vR 113
ERA5.06
FIP4.98
K%23.2%
BB%14.7%
K-BB%8.5%
ROS IP52
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p8496.9
Whiff%
p5125.5%
K%
p3620.2%
xwOBA vs
p260.340
FB-2.2
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 26 | 10 | 88 | 358 | 71 | 20 | 4 | 38% | 3.4 | 15.3% | 6.4% | 8.8% | 1.1% | 2.75 | 3.25 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | A+ | Clearwater Threshers | 26 | 10 | 88 | 358 | 71 | 20 | 4 | 38% | 3.4 | 19.8% | 5.6% | 14.2% | 1.1% | 2.75 | 2.76 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 7 | 78 | 350 | 64 | 36 | 4 | 19% | 2.1 | 14.5% | 11.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 5.74 | 4.22 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 37 | 7 | 78 | 350 | 64 | 36 | 4 | 19% | 2.1 | 18.3% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 1.1% | 5.74 | 3.51 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 73 | 287 | 81 | 21 | 9 | 2% | 1.5 | 24.4% | 7.7% | 16.7% | 3.0% | 2.48 | 3.65 | +1.0 |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 50 | 1 | 73 | 287 | 81 | 21 | 9 | 2% | 1.5 | 28.2% | 7.3% | 20.9% | 3.1% | 2.48 | 3.35 | +1.3 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 10.4% | 3.1% | 5.68 | 4.38 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 58 | 0 | 59 | 269 | 62 | 30 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.0% | 11.2% | 11.9% | 3.0% | 5.68 | 4.29 | +0.2 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 297 | 61 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.6% | 11.5% | 7.0% | 3.8% | 6.06 | 5.09 | -0.4 |
| 2019 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 54 | 0 | 62 | 297 | 61 | 33 | 10 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.5% | 11.1% | 9.4% | 3.4% | 6.06 | 4.82 | -0.2 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.10 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 27 | MLB | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 0 | 4 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 0.0% | 9.00 | 3.10 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 23.2% | 11.0% | 12.2% | 1.9% | 3.64 | 3.56 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 40 | 0 | 47 | 194 | 48 | 21 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 24.7% | 10.8% | 13.9% | 2.1% | 3.64 | 3.50 | +0.6 |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 30 | 1 | 33 | 157 | 38 | 29 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 19.4% | 1.9% | 1.5% | 4.91 | 4.59 | — |
| 2022 | 29 | AAA | Charlotte Knights | 30 | 1 | 33 | 157 | 38 | 29 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.2% | 18.5% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 4.91 | 5.01 | — |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 26.7% | 8.5% | 18.2% | 2.3% | 4.67 | 3.18 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 25 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 32 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 1.1 | 28.3% | 12.4% | 15.9% | 2.7% | 4.67 | 3.73 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 30 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.6% | 17.1% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 3.30 | 4.42 | — |
| 2024 | 31 | AAA | Syracuse Mets | 27 | 0 | 30 | 135 | 30 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.2% | 16.3% | 5.9% | 1.5% | 3.30 | 4.17 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25% | 0.8 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 18.00 | 6.33 | — |
| 2025 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 4 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25% | 0.8 | 17.6% | 11.8% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 18.00 | 7.43 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | Chicago Cubs | 12 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 17 | 10 | 5 | 0% | 1.6 | 17.8% | 14.2% | 3.6% | 7.4% | 3.86 | 7.47 | -0.6 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 49 | 0 | 52 | 219 | 51 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 33 | MLB | CHC | 50 | 0 | 52 | 220 | 51 | 32 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 8.5% | 2.9% | 5.06 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| 2026 TOT | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 70 | 298 | 68 | 42 | 11 | — | — | 22.7% | 14.1% | 8.6% | 3.8% | 4.74 | 5.64 | -0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 33 | MLB | CHC | — | — | 54 | 226 | 68 | 42 | 11 | — | — | 30.0% | 18.6% | 11.4% | 5.0% | 6.25 | 5.69 | -0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 46 | 31 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 39 | 29 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.3% | 15.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | CHC | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 43 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 22.3% | 15.2% | 7.1% | 3.2% | 5.19 | 5.28 | -0.4 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | CHC | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 36 | 27 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.3% | 15.7% | 5.6% | 3.6% | 5.45 | 5.62 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 224 | 0 | 238 | 1035 | 225 | 141 | 37 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 4.93 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 189 | 0 | 200 | 870 | 189 | 119 | 31 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.7% | 13.6% | 8.1% | 3.5% | 5.63 | 4.93 | +1.1 | ||
| Career | — | 366 | 20 | 523 | 2273 | 444 | 250 | 55 | 5% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.41 | 4.18 | +7.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 140 | 8 | 200 | 869 | 170 | 96 | 21 | 5% | 1.4 | 19.6% | 11.0% | 8.5% | 2.4% | 4.41 | 4.18 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yacksel Ríos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.98 | 23.2% | 14.7% | 2.9% | — | 5.44 | 21.8% | 6.4% | 92 | +0.46 | — | — | — |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 84 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 77 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 76 |
| Hirokazu Sawamura R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 26.2% | 11.2% | 3.8% | .263 | 3.99 | 18.1% | 6.8% | 51 | -0.41 | 3.99 | 104 | 76 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 75 |
| Jon Edwards R 2024 · 4.46 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.46 | 25.1% | 11.6% | 3.7% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 132 | 75 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 74 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.59 | 20.4% | 14.1% | 2.6% | .344 | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 43 | +0.56 | 2.00 | 320 | 74 |
| Radhames Liz R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.31 | 21.8% | 13.9% | 2.3% | .343 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 110 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 5.47 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.47 | 15.0% | 14.5% | 3.3% | .300 | 4.24 | 20.9% | 13.0% | 145 | -1.23 | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.22 | 20.0% | 9.7% | 2.9% | .302 | 2.90 | 24.2% | 15.4% | 98 | -1.32 | 2.82 | 284 | 73 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Greg Holland R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.38 | 27.0% | 14.5% | 3.1% | .238 | 3.77 | 23.8% | 15.4% | 84 | -0.61 | 1.97 | 268 | 72 |
| Arquimedes Caminero R 2025 · 4.46 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.46 | 18.6% | 11.1% | 2.8% | .248 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.46 | 173 | 71 |
| Jake Sanchez R 2026 · 4.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.79 | 20.7% | 12.4% | 3.4% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.86 | 361 | 71 |
| Nate Jones R 2025 · 4.06 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.06 | 23.4% | 10.9% | 2.8% | .279 | 6.10 | 21.4% | 13.8% | 38 | +2.04 | 2.54 | 157 | 71 |
| Matt Bush R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.74 | 17.6% | 13.0% | 2.7% | .278 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.86 | 249 | 70 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 69 |
| Austin Adams R 2025 · 6.16 FIP | 32 | SU | 6.16 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 6.3% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 162 | 69 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 22.3% | 15.1% | 1.24 | 5.22 |
| Amir Garrett ('23) | 6 | 51 | 25.8% | 13.4% | 1.50 | 5.10 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| Michael Kopech ('24) | 4 | 96 | 26.1% | 12.5% | 1.45 | 4.15 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |