Keone Kela

P Charlotte Knights

Age 34 RHP 6'1" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2021	28	MLBSD	12	0	11	5.06	5.16	27.1%	6.2%	-0.1
2022	29	MIX2 levels	19	2	19	4.82	4.92	23.3%	18.6%	—	K 18.8% · BB 19.6% · FIP 5.61
2025	32	MIX2 levels	16	0	19	7.11	4.05	32.1%	13.1%	—	K 27.1% · BB 11.1% · FIP 4.10
2027PROJ	34	MLBCWS	50	0	53	4.09	4.12	25.6%	9.0%	0.3
2028PROJ6% MLB	35	MLBCWS	3	0	3	4.31	4.46	24.6%	9.6%	0.0
2029PROJ0% MLB	36	MLBCWS	—	—	0	4.62	4.83	23.6%	10.2%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff58Control48Command64FB velo59

CompsYoshihisa Hirano (age 34) · Hirokazu Sawamura (age 34) · Zack Segovia (age 33)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 111103vR 95

ERA4.09

FIP4.12

K%25.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%16.6%

Proj IP53

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL5050

CMD6565

K†6060

FB-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	70	0	62	250	70	18	4	0%	0.9	28.0%	7.4%	20.6%	1.6%	2.31	2.54	+1.5
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	70	0	62	250	70	18	4	0%	0.9	28.0%	7.2%	20.8%	1.6%	2.31	2.55	+1.5
2016	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	0	38	168	52	17	6	0%	1.0	30.0%	11.3%	18.7%	3.8%	5.45	4.11	+0.2
2016	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	0	38	168	52	17	6	0%	1.0	31.0%	10.1%	20.8%	3.6%	5.45	3.76	+0.4
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	43	0	43	169	59	17	4	0%	1.0	33.8%	10.6%	23.2%	2.5%	2.74	2.99	+0.8
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	43	0	43	169	59	17	4	0%	1.0	34.9%	10.1%	24.9%	2.4%	2.74	2.75	+0.9
2018	25	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	54	0	52	212	66	17	5	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.0%	23.1%	2.5%	3.29	2.89	+1.0
2018	25	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	54	0	52	212	66	17	5	0%	1.0	31.1%	8.0%	23.1%	2.4%	3.29	2.79	+1.1
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	33	135	40	12	5	3%	0.9	27.7%	9.2%	18.5%	2.7%	3.27	3.43	+0.4
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	33	135	40	12	5	3%	0.9	29.6%	8.9%	20.7%	3.7%	3.27	3.74	+0.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	0.7	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	4.50	7.32	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	10	3	1	1	0%	0.7	30.0%	10.0%	20.0%	10.0%	4.50	8.10	-0.1
2021	28	MLB MLE	San Diego Padres	12	0	11	48	13	3	3	0%	0.9	27.1%	6.2%	20.8%	6.2%	5.06	5.04	-0.1
2021	28	MLB RAW	San Diego Padres	12	0	11	48	13	3	3	0%	0.9	27.1%	6.2%	20.8%	6.2%	5.06	5.16	-0.1
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	2	19	86	20	16	2	11%	1.0	18.8%	19.6%	-0.8%	2.9%	4.82	5.61	—
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	2	19	86	20	16	2	11%	1.0	23.3%	18.6%	4.7%	2.3%	4.82	4.92	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	19	84	27	11	3	0%	1.2	27.1%	11.1%	16.0%	3.4%	7.11	4.10	—
2025	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	16	0	19	84	27	11	3	0%	1.2	27.1%	11.1%	16.0%	3.4%	7.11	4.10	—
2025	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	16	0	19	84	27	11	3	0%	1.2	32.1%	13.1%	19.0%	3.6%	7.11	4.05	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			243	0	227	933	279	83	26	0%	0.9	29.9%	8.9%	21.0%	2.8%	3.33	3.23	+3.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	34	MLB	CWS	50	0	53	224	57	20	7	0%	1.1	25.6%	9.0%	16.6%	3.0%	4.09	4.12	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	35	MLB MLE	CWS	45	0	47	200	49	19	7	0%	1.1	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.4%	4.31	4.46	+0.0
2029	36	MLB MLE	CWS	40	0	42	177	42	18	7	0%	1.0	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.62	4.83	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	CWS	3	0	3	13	3	1	0	0%	1.0	24.6%	9.6%	15.0%	3.4%	4.31	4.46	+0.0
2029	36	MLB CTX	CWS	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	3.7%	4.62	4.83	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		245	0	230	944	282	84	26	0%	0.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	2.8%	3.34	3.24	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		214	0	200	821	245	73	23	0%	0.9	29.8%	8.9%	20.9%	2.8%	3.34	3.24	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		292	3	278	1162	336	115	33	1%	1.0	28.9%	9.9%	19.0%	2.9%	3.72	3.48	+3.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		210	2	200	835	241	83	24	1%	1.0	28.9%	9.9%	19.0%	2.9%	3.72	3.48	+2.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Keone Kela (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.12	25.6%	9.0%	3.0%	—	4.63	24.2%	14.3%	89	+0.51	—	—	—
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	74
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	70
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	69
Huascar Brazobán R 2024 · 3.08 FIP	34	SU	3.08	23.5%	11.5%	0.9%	.259	3.71	21.3%	11.7%	144	+0.63	3.08	370	67
Neil Wagner R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	33	SU	3.11	20.7%	8.6%	1.2%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.11	135	67
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	67
Blake Parker R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	34	SU	4.65	25.5%	8.6%	4.8%	.258	4.26	24.9%	15.4%	87	-0.39	2.52	406	66
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	191	66
Diego Moreno R 2021 · 4.75 FIP	34	SU	4.75	18.6%	9.4%	3.7%	.232	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	187	65
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	63
Preston Guilmet R 2021 · 4.17 FIP	34	SU	4.17	28.6%	6.6%	4.8%	.246	—	—	—	—	—	2.31	288	62
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	61
Greg Burke R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	22.1%	7.3%	2.7%	.241	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	139	61
Brendan Donnelly R 2005 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	19.6%	5.9%	3.3%	.264	4.02	17.6%	8.5%	98	-0.00	2.23	385	61
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	61
Robert Suarez R 2024 · 3.36 FIP	33	SU	3.36	22.9%	5.8%	2.6%	.254	2.54	25.3%	20.3%	104	-0.82	1.95	291	60
Dustin Molleken R 2017 · 3.38 FIP	32	SU	3.38	24.3%	12.4%	1.4%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.38	129	60
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	60
Fernando Cruz R 2024 · 2.94 FIP	34	SU	2.94	37.8%	11.5%	2.9%	.328	3.39	32.1%	19.6%	103	+0.45	2.50	371	60
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	60

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	46	27.8%	9.4%	1.16	3.71
Ryan Tepera ('23)	1.8	52	24.3%	8.8%	1.13	3.62
Mychal Givens ('23)	2.3	58	28.2%	10.0%	1.05	3.47
Diego Castillo ('24)	1.4	56	27.2%	9.6%	1.07	3.20
Mike Schooler ('88-'93, 5 WAR*)	1.5	49	26.9%*	8.0%*	0.96*	3.68*
Alberto Reyes ('95-'08, 5 WAR*)	2.1	54	27.1%*	10.2%*	1.18*	3.66*
Joe Hoerner ('63-'77, 8 WAR*)	2.8	51	23.2%*	7.9%*	1.21*	3.52*