Archie Bradley prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Archie Bradley P Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.36

FIP4.42

K%22.6%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP54

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4040

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3893.7

Whiff%

p1520.3%

p3019.2%

xwOBA vs

p640.298

CH-2.6

FB-3.2

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	4 levels	14	14	65	288	55	31	8	100%	4.6	16.0%	10.4%	5.7%	2.4%	4.43	4.40	+0.4
2015	22	MIX RAW	4 levels	14	14	65	288	55	31	8	100%	4.6	19.1%	10.8%	8.3%	2.8%	4.43	4.44	+0.4
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	33	182	795	190	77	16	100%	5.5	23.2%	9.8%	13.4%	2.0%	4.34	3.48	+3.2
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	33	182	795	190	77	16	100%	5.5	23.9%	9.7%	14.2%	2.0%	4.34	3.42	+3.3
2017	24	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	0	73	290	79	19	4	0%	1.2	27.2%	6.6%	20.7%	1.4%	1.73	2.38	+1.9
2017	24	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	63	0	73	290	79	19	4	0%	1.2	27.2%	6.6%	20.7%	1.4%	1.73	2.43	+1.9
2018	25	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	76	0	72	296	75	19	9	0%	0.9	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	3.2%	3.64	3.54	+0.9
2018	25	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	76	0	72	296	75	19	9	0%	0.9	25.3%	6.4%	18.9%	3.0%	3.64	3.43	+0.9
2019	26	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	66	1	72	317	87	34	5	2%	1.1	27.4%	10.7%	16.7%	1.7%	3.52	3.06	+1.3
2019	26	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	66	1	72	317	87	34	5	2%	1.1	27.4%	10.7%	16.7%	1.6%	3.52	3.00	+1.3
2020	27	MLB MLE	Cincinnati Reds	16	0	18	73	18	3	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	4.1%	20.5%	1.3%	2.95	2.23	+0.5
2020	27	MLB RAW	Cincinnati Reds	16	0	18	73	18	3	1	0%	1.1	24.7%	4.1%	20.5%	1.4%	2.95	2.34	+0.5
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	55	0	53	233	41	22	5	0%	1.0	17.9%	9.4%	8.5%	2.1%	3.74	3.92	+0.4
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	55	0	53	233	41	22	5	0%	1.0	17.6%	9.4%	8.2%	2.1%	3.74	4.02	+0.3
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	0	25	104	19	6	2	0%	1.0	19.2%	7.7%	11.5%	1.3%	4.26	3.14	+0.4
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	0	25	104	19	6	2	0%	1.0	18.3%	5.8%	12.5%	1.9%	4.26	3.34	+0.4
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	37	164	29	14	7	5%	1.8	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	4.8%	6.03	5.49	-0.4
2023	30	MIX MLE	3 levels	21	1	37	164	29	14	7	5%	1.8	16.3%	8.9%	7.4%	4.8%	6.03	5.49	-0.4
2023	30	MIX RAW	3 levels	21	1	37	164	29	14	7	5%	1.8	17.7%	8.5%	9.1%	4.3%	6.03	5.11	-0.2
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			333	35	489	2116	487	185	46	11%	1.5	23.0%	8.7%	14.3%	2.2%	4.03	3.47	+6.3
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	MIA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.6%	9.2%	13.4%	3.1%	4.36	4.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	49	206	45	20	7	0%	1.1	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.73	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	44	185	38	19	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.7%	4.87	5.06	-0.3
2027	34	MLB CTX	MIA	47	0	49	207	45	20	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	9.7%	12.0%	3.4%	4.58	4.73	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	MIA	42	0	44	186	38	19	7	0%	1.0	20.7%	10.2%	10.5%	3.7%	4.87	5.06	-0.3
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		421	35	581	2506	570	224	60	8%	1.4	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	2.4%	4.14	3.62	+6.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		145	12	200	862	196	77	21	8%	1.4	22.7%	8.9%	13.8%	2.4%	4.14	3.62	+2.2
Career	—	MLE		370	49	598	2560	578	227	57	13%	1.6	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.2%	3.85	3.53	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	16	200	857	193	76	19	13%	1.6	22.6%	8.9%	13.7%	2.2%	3.85	3.53	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Archie Bradley (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.42	22.6%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.89	21.2%	11.3%	92	+0.47	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	82
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	80
Arcenio Leon R 2019 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	21.4%	8.1%	2.4%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.00	115	79
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	78
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	78
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	77
Jim Henderson R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	33	SU	4.55	25.8%	9.0%	4.5%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	167	76
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	76
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	75
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	74
Adrian Ramirez R 2019 · 4.29 FIP	31	SU	4.29	21.7%	6.3%	4.0%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.04	137	74
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	73
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	73
Mike Buddie R 2002 · 4.26 FIP	31	SU	4.26	15.1%	7.6%	2.7%	.297	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	123	72
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	72
Jake Sanchez R 2023 · 4.70 FIP	33	SU	4.70	20.3%	10.6%	3.6%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	1.86	361	71
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	71
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	70
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	70

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.2	71	22.7%	9.5%	0.95	4.16
Aaron Heilman ('11)	3.1	70	20.1%	9.4%	1.03	4.40
Kevin Gregg ('15)	3.6	65	21.0%	10.5%	0.97	4.24
Mel Rojas ('99)	3.3	74	19.9%	9.0%	0.88	3.82
Joba Chamberlain ('16)	2.8	56	22.8%	9.4%	0.92	3.81
Brad Hand ('23)	3.9	64	23.9%	9.1%	0.93	3.75
Carlos Torres ('19)	2.5	72	20.7%	8.9%	1.12	4.09