Thyago Vieira — OGILVIE

Thyago Vieira P Arizona Diamondbacks

Age 33 RHP 6'3" / 259 lbs MLB

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 4 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.10

FIP5.17

K%24.5%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%9.7%

ROS IP4

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 4 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL2020

CMD3535

K†6060

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p9097.7

Whiff%

p4724.8%

p4922.0%

xwOBA vs

p190.349

SI (40%)

FB-1.2 (63%)

SL-5.7 (36%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	A MLE	Clinton LumberKings	22	0	31	152	22	20	2	0%	1.4	10.7%	15.5%	-4.8%	2.0%	6.97	5.27	—
2015	22	A RAW	Clinton LumberKings	22	0	31	152	22	20	2	0%	1.4	14.5%	13.2%	1.3%	1.3%	6.97	4.45	—
2016	23	A+ MLE	Bakersfield Blaze	34	0	44	189	53	18	1	0%	1.3	21.6%	11.0%	10.6%	0.7%	2.84	3.04	—
2016	23	A+ RAW	Bakersfield Blaze	34	0	44	189	53	18	1	0%	1.3	28.0%	9.5%	18.5%	0.5%	2.84	2.22	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	42	0	55	232	47	22	2	0%	1.3	16.6%	10.4%	6.2%	1.0%	3.93	3.57	+0.6
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	42	0	55	232	47	22	2	0%	1.3	20.3%	9.5%	10.8%	0.9%	3.93	3.06	+1.0
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	52	0	59	274	65	33	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	12.5%	9.1%	2.0%	5.68	3.98	+0.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	52	0	59	274	65	33	6	0%	1.1	23.7%	12.0%	11.7%	2.2%	5.68	3.90	+0.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	54	250	59	27	7	0%	1.2	21.1%	10.8%	10.2%	3.0%	6.13	4.33	+0.1
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	54	250	59	27	7	0%	1.2	23.6%	10.8%	12.8%	2.8%	6.13	4.09	+0.3
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	41	171	53	16	3	0%	1.2	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	2.3%	3.10	3.19	+0.7
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	41	171	53	16	3	0%	1.2	26.3%	8.4%	17.9%	2.3%	3.10	3.19	+0.7
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	41	171	53	16	3	0%	1.2	31.0%	9.4%	21.6%	1.8%	3.10	2.63	+0.9
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	0	38	177	39	25	8	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	4.8%	5.21	5.65	-0.5
2024	31	MLB MLE	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	0	38	177	39	25	8	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	4.8%	5.21	5.65	-0.5
2024	31	MLB RAW	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	0	38	177	39	25	8	0%	1.4	22.0%	14.1%	7.9%	4.5%	5.21	5.76	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			53	0	67	312	65	40	12	0%	1.3	20.8%	12.8%	8.0%	3.8%	5.80	5.29	-0.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	ARI	4	0	4	17	4	2	1	0%	1.0	24.5%	14.8%	9.7%	3.4%	5.10	5.17	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	ARI	42	0	44	186	44	27	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	3.7%	5.24	5.39	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	ARI	40	0	42	177	42	26	7	0%	1.1	23.5%	14.7%	8.8%	3.7%	5.24	5.39	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		93	0	109	489	107	66	19	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.8%	5.59	5.05	-0.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		171	0	200	901	197	122	35	0%	1.2	21.8%	13.5%	8.3%	3.8%	5.59	5.05	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		258	0	322	1445	291	169	32	0%	1.2	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.2%	4.81	4.10	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		160	0	200	898	181	105	20	0%	1.2	20.2%	11.7%	8.5%	2.2%	4.81	4.10	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Thyago Vieira (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.17	24.5%	14.8%	3.4%	—	5.39	23.5%	8.8%	44	+0.22	—	—	—
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	78
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	74
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	74
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	73
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	72
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	71
Radhames Liz R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	34	SU	4.45	21.8%	13.9%	2.6%	.343	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	110	70
Nate Jones R 2018 · 4.09 FIP	32	SU	4.09	23.4%	10.9%	2.9%	.279	5.85	21.4%	13.8%	38	+1.76	2.57	157	69
Jumbo Diaz R 2017 · 4.17 FIP	33	SU	4.17	20.0%	9.7%	2.8%	.302	2.90	24.2%	15.4%	98	-1.27	2.80	284	69
Arquimedes Caminero R 2019 · 4.62 FIP	32	SU	4.62	18.6%	11.1%	3.1%	.248	—	—	—	—	—	3.54	173	69
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	69
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	68
Matt Bush R 2018 · 4.72 FIP	32	SU	4.72	17.6%	13.0%	2.7%	.278	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	249	67
Mark Lowe R 2016 · 5.40 FIP	33	SU	5.40	21.9%	8.5%	5.6%	.312	5.03	16.4%	6.4%	49	-0.37	2.37	153	66
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	65
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	65
Anthony Swarzak R 2019 · 5.34 FIP	33	SU	5.34	22.2%	10.3%	5.1%	.274	6.21	16.1%	14.3%	12	+0.87	2.35	260	65
Wade Davis R 2019 · 4.82 FIP	33	SU	4.82	20.4%	14.1%	3.0%	.344	5.18	20.0%	10.0%	43	+0.36	2.00	320	64
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	64
Chris Hatcher R 2018 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	18.0%	9.6%	4.6%	.316	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	176	64

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.5	46	24.0%	14.8%	1.38	5.17
Amir Garrett ('23)	1.5	51	25.8%	13.4%	1.50	5.10
Daniel Bard ('23)	1.0	50	25.1%	13.5%	0.81	3.82
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Michael Kopech ('24)	1.9	96	26.1%	12.5%	1.45	4.15
Lucas Sims ('24)	1.4	47	27.6%	11.6%	1.24	4.22
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41