Jake Reed
P
Oklahoma City Dodgers
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 53 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123114vR 105
ERA4.59
FIP4.59
K%21.8%
BB%10.2%
K-BB%11.6%
ROS IP54
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 53 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB-0.8
CH-0.8
SL-1.9
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 14.2% | 10.4% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 5.01 | 3.82 | — |
| 2015 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 0% | 1.3 | 17.4% | 8.3% | 9.1% | 1.1% | 5.01 | 3.32 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 0.6% | 3.57 | 2.90 | — |
| 2016 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 50 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 0% | 1.4 | 24.7% | 7.9% | 16.8% | 0.7% | 3.57 | 2.41 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 38 | 154 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 3.21 | — |
| 2017 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 27 | 0 | 38 | 154 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 0% | 1.4 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 11.0% | 0.6% | 2.13 | 2.97 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 30 | 1 | 48 | 193 | 50 | 16 | 1 | 3% | 1.6 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 14.1% | 0.8% | 1.89 | 2.69 | — |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 30 | 1 | 48 | 193 | 50 | 16 | 1 | 3% | 1.6 | 25.9% | 8.3% | 17.6% | 0.5% | 1.89 | 2.28 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 1 | 75 | 327 | 92 | 34 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 13.8% | 2.6% | 5.76 | 3.80 | — |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 1 | 75 | 327 | 92 | 34 | 7 | 2% | 1.7 | 28.1% | 10.4% | 17.7% | 2.1% | 5.76 | 3.22 | — |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 40 | 175 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 24.0% | 7.2% | 16.8% | 2.3% | 4.69 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 28 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 1 | 40 | 175 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 3% | 1.1 | 26.3% | 5.7% | 20.6% | 2.3% | 4.69 | 2.85 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 40 | 179 | 39 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 4.72 | 3.59 | +0.4 |
| 2022 | 29 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 40 | 179 | 39 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 8.4% | 13.4% | 1.7% | 4.72 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 173 | 32 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.4% | 13.3% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 8.74 | 5.19 | -0.3 |
| 2023 | 30 | MIX | 2 levels | 30 | 0 | 35 | 173 | 32 | 22 | 6 | 0% | 1.2 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 5.8% | 3.5% | 8.74 | 5.39 | -0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 51 | 0 | 54 | 226 | 49 | 23 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 11.6% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 46 | 0 | 49 | 206 | 43 | 22 | 7 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.86 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 185 | 37 | 20 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.16 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 21.0% | 10.6% | 10.4% | 3.3% | 4.74 | 4.86 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 35 | MLB | LAD | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 20.2% | 11.0% | 9.2% | 3.6% | 4.98 | 5.16 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 32 | 1 | 30 | 140 | 27 | 11 | 4 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 7.29 | 4.26 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 210 | 7 | 200 | 921 | 177 | 72 | 26 | 3% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 3.2% | 7.29 | 4.26 | +2.7 | ||
| Career | — | 300 | 4 | 406 | 1758 | 355 | 173 | 29 | 1% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.52 | 3.54 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 2 | 200 | 866 | 175 | 85 | 14 | 1% | 1.4 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 10.4% | 1.6% | 4.52 | 3.54 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Reed (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 5.00 | 20.7% | 9.8% | 92 | +0.41 | — | — | — |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.77 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 1.9% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.15 | 272 | 86 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.40 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 3.0% | .274 | 3.99 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.41 | 2.78 | 596 | 80 |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.17 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 2.9% | .290 | 2.37 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.80 | 2.08 | 112 | 79 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.77 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .331 | 5.83 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.06 | 3.37 | 170 | 78 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 78 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.58 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.58 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.7% | .335 | 2.63 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -0.95 | 2.63 | 144 | 77 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.03 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.03 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.6% | .234 | 3.81 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.22 | 2.80 | 453 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.55 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.5% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.49 | 2.77 | 172 | 77 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 4.04 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.04 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 3.1% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.04 | 102 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.50 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.1% | .276 | 4.06 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.44 | 3.92 | 186 | 76 |
| Brad Brach R 2026 · 3.44 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.44 | 24.8% | 12.0% | 1.7% | .356 | 4.68 | 23.0% | 9.8% | 66 | +1.24 | 2.73 | 410 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.99 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.26 | 122 | 74 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2025 · 4.62 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.62 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.1% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.23 | 221 | 74 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.43 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.43 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.0% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 115 | 74 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2029 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.21 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.21 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.1% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.03 | 120 | 73 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.89 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.6% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.67 | 301 | 73 |
| Zack Segovia R 2026 · 3.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.41 | 20.2% | 5.9% | 2.3% | .312 | 4.36 | 17.6% | 4.0% | 57 | +0.95 | 3.41 | 144 | 72 |
| Craig Stammen R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.32 | 22.5% | 7.6% | 3.9% | .257 | 2.99 | 23.9% | 19.8% | 185 | -1.33 | 1.87 | 407 | 72 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 49 | 21.1% | 10.6% | 1.28 | 4.76 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |