Jake Reed
P
Oklahoma City Dodgers
+0.1
WAR
Age 33
RHP
6'2" / 195 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.45
FIP4.45
xFIP9.72
SIERA5.67
K%22.6%
BB%9.7%
K-BB%12.9%
IP26
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF4545
CTRL5050
CMD4545
K†5050
FB Velo
p1091.1
Whiff%
p2221.3%
K%
p1416.9%
xwOBA vs
p180.350
FB-0.8
CH-0.8
SL-1.9
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 22 | AA | Chattanooga Lookouts | 44 | 0 | 59 | 265 | 46 | 22 | 3 | 14.2% | 10.4% | 1.3% | 5.01 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| 2016 | 23 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 50 | 0 | 71 | 292 | 72 | 23 | 2 | 20.7% | 9.7% | 0.7% | 3.57 | 2.97 | +1.7 |
| 2017 | 24 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 27 | 0 | 38 | 154 | 33 | 16 | 1 | 18.2% | 8.7% | 1.0% | 2.13 | 3.19 | +0.8 |
| 2018 | 25 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 30 | 1 | 48 | 193 | 50 | 16 | 1 | 22.8% | 8.7% | 0.6% | 1.89 | 2.63 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 26 | AAA | Rochester Red Wings | 45 | 1 | 75 | 327 | 92 | 34 | 7 | 24.8% | 10.9% | 2.5% | 5.76 | 3.75 | +1.1 |
| 2021 | 28 | MLB | New York Mets | 36 | 1 | 40 | 175 | 46 | 10 | 4 | 24.0% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 4.69 | 3.29 | +0.8 |
| 2022 | 29 | MLB | Baltimore Orioles | 38 | 1 | 40 | 179 | 39 | 15 | 3 | 18.8% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 4.72 | 3.66 | +0.6 |
| 2023 | 30 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 30 | 0 | 35 | 173 | 32 | 22 | 6 | 16.4% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 8.74 | 5.21 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 33 | MLB | LAD | 26 | — | 26 | 111 | 24 | 11 | 3 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.59 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 34 | MLB | LAD | 25 | — | 25 | 106 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 21.2% | 10.3% | 3.1% | 4.64 | 4.70 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 300 | 4 | 406 | 1758 | 355 | 173 | 30 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 4.52 | 3.56 | +8.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 2 | 200 | 866 | 175 | 85 | 15 | 20.2% | 9.9% | 1.7% | 4.52 | 3.56 | +3.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jake Reed (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.59 | 21.8% | 10.2% | 3.0% | — | 4.70 | 21.2% | 10.9% | 25 | +0.11 | — | — | — |
| Fernando Nieve R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.26 | 22.0% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .290 | 2.44 | 26.9% | 22.6% | 89 | -1.82 | 1.94 | 112 | 82 |
| Cory Gearrin R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.82 | 19.5% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.17 | 272 | 82 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.54 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.54 | 27.2% | 8.4% | 3.0% | .308 | 4.43 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 255 | +0.89 | 3.54 | 348 | 78 |
| Jose Manuel Lopez R 2025 · 3.63 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.63 | 20.4% | 10.0% | 1.8% | .331 | 6.11 | 17.9% | 3.7% | 41 | +2.48 | 3.45 | 170 | 78 |
| Arcenio Leon R 2025 · 3.52 FIP | 32 | SU | 3.52 | 21.4% | 8.1% | 2.2% | .314 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.01 | 115 | 77 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.61 | 17.6% | 8.8% | 1.6% | .270 | 3.06 | 17.9% | 10.0% | 124 | -0.55 | 2.72 | 172 | 76 |
| Brad Peacock R 2026 · 4.81 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.81 | 21.0% | 9.8% | 4.1% | .327 | 3.77 | 23.9% | 13.3% | 60 | -1.04 | 2.94 | 533 | 74 |
| Manny Acosta R 2028 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 74 |
| Josh Lueke R 2027 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 73 |
| Junichi Tazawa R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.14 | 17.0% | 8.4% | 2.6% | .306 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.99 | 227 | 73 |
| Ryan Cook R 2024 · 3.85 FIP | 31 | SW | 3.85 | 25.1% | 10.8% | 2.7% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.85 | 102 | 73 |
| Tony Barnette R 2026 · 3.61 FIP | 33 | SW | 3.61 | 22.6% | 7.1% | 2.8% | .335 | 2.56 | 25.0% | 20.2% | 26 | -1.05 | 2.56 | 144 | 73 |
| Steve Cishek R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.16 | 21.3% | 10.5% | 2.8% | .234 | 3.75 | 23.2% | 12.9% | 155 | -0.41 | 2.89 | 453 | 73 |
| Mark Serrano R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 73 |
| Tyler Thornburg R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 33 | SU | 3.79 | 17.5% | 11.2% | 1.4% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.59 | 301 | 73 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.31 | 21.3% | 11.4% | 2.9% | .274 | 4.08 | 19.7% | 8.3% | 169 | -0.23 | 2.86 | 596 | 73 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.63 | 16.3% | 8.6% | 3.3% | .276 | 4.24 | 18.5% | 11.9% | 128 | -0.39 | 4.11 | 186 | 72 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2028 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 72 |
| Jeff Manship R 2024 · 4.63 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.63 | 19.0% | 10.6% | 3.3% | .262 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 114 | 72 |
| Ryan Brasier R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 33 | SU | 4.83 | 18.0% | 8.0% | 4.1% | .286 | 3.13 | 23.7% | 17.9% | 150 | -1.70 | 2.31 | 403 | 72 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.