Jake Reed — OGILVIE

Jake Reed P Oklahoma City Dodgers

Age 33 RHP 6'2" / 195 lbs AAA

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 5 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 109

ERA4.85

FIP4.85

K%19.1%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP5

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 5 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†4545

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p2221.3%

p1416.9%

xwOBA vs

p180.350

FB-0.8

CH-0.8

SL-1.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	59	265	46	22	3	0%	1.3	14.2%	10.4%	3.8%	1.3%	5.01	3.94	—
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	59	265	46	22	3	0%	1.3	17.4%	8.3%	9.1%	1.1%	5.01	3.32	—
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	50	0	71	292	72	23	2	0%	1.4	20.7%	9.7%	11.1%	0.7%	3.57	2.98	—
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	50	0	71	292	72	23	2	0%	1.4	24.7%	7.9%	16.8%	0.7%	3.57	2.41	—
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	0	38	154	33	16	1	0%	1.4	18.2%	8.7%	9.5%	1.0%	2.13	3.19	—
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	0	38	154	33	16	1	0%	1.4	21.4%	10.4%	11.0%	0.6%	2.13	2.97	—
2018	25	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	30	1	48	193	50	16	1	3%	1.6	22.8%	8.7%	14.1%	0.6%	1.89	2.63	—
2018	25	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	30	1	48	193	50	16	1	3%	1.6	25.9%	8.3%	17.6%	0.5%	1.89	2.28	—
2019	26	AAA MLE	Rochester Red Wings	45	1	75	327	92	34	7	2%	1.7	24.8%	10.9%	13.8%	2.5%	5.76	3.74	—
2019	26	AAA RAW	Rochester Red Wings	45	1	75	327	92	34	7	2%	1.7	28.1%	10.4%	17.7%	2.1%	5.76	3.22	—
2021	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	1	40	175	46	10	4	3%	1.1	24.0%	7.2%	16.8%	2.4%	4.69	3.30	+0.6
2021	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	1	40	175	46	10	4	3%	1.1	26.3%	5.7%	20.6%	2.3%	4.69	2.85	+0.8
2022	29	MIX MLE	3 levels	38	1	40	179	39	15	3	3%	1.1	18.8%	8.9%	9.9%	1.8%	4.72	3.64	+0.4
2022	29	MIX RAW	3 levels	38	1	40	179	39	15	3	3%	1.1	21.8%	8.4%	13.4%	1.7%	4.72	3.25	+0.6
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	35	173	32	22	6	0%	1.2	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	3.3%	8.74	5.04	-0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	35	173	32	22	6	0%	1.2	15.5%	11.4%	4.1%	3.3%	8.74	5.04	-0.2
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	35	173	32	22	6	0%	1.2	18.5%	12.7%	5.8%	3.5%	8.74	5.39	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			29	1	27	127	24	10	4	3%	0.9	18.9%	7.9%	11.0%	3.1%	7.57	4.34	+0.1
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	LAD	5	0	5	21	4	2	1	0%	1.0	19.1%	10.5%	8.6%	3.0%	4.85	4.85	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	LAD	46	0	49	206	38	22	7	0%	1.1	18.6%	10.9%	7.8%	3.3%	4.98	5.10	-0.3
2028	35	MLB MLE	LAD	42	0	44	185	33	21	7	0%	1.0	18.0%	11.3%	6.7%	3.6%	5.20	5.38	-0.4
2027	34	MLB CTX	LAD	3	0	3	13	2	1	0	0%	1.0	18.6%	10.9%	7.8%	3.3%	4.98	5.10	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	LAD	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.0%	11.3%	6.7%	3.6%	5.20	5.38	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		32	1	30	140	26	11	4	3%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	3.2%	7.31	4.28	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		210	7	200	921	171	72	26	3%	1.0	18.9%	8.2%	10.7%	3.2%	7.31	4.28	+0.6
Career	—	MLE		300	4	406	1758	354	170	30	1%	1.4	20.1%	9.7%	10.5%	1.7%	4.52	3.55	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		148	2	200	866	174	84	15	1%	1.4	20.1%	9.7%	10.5%	1.7%	4.52	3.55	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jake Reed (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.85	19.1%	10.5%	3.0%	—	5.23	18.4%	7.3%	92	+0.38	—	—	—
Manny Acosta R 2016 · 4.19 FIP	35	SU	4.19	18.1%	9.1%	2.7%	.273	3.08	23.2%	9.9%	44	-1.11	3.08	102	80
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	4.12	186	80
Cory Gearrin R 2019 · 3.78 FIP	33	SU	3.78	19.5%	10.0%	1.9%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	272	78
Fernando Nieve R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	33	SU	4.27	22.0%	10.5%	3.1%	.290	2.43	26.9%	22.6%	89	-1.84	1.96	112	78
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	4.15	145	77
Bryan Shaw R 2021 · 4.39 FIP	33	SU	4.39	21.3%	11.4%	3.0%	.274	3.93	19.2%	8.7%	169	-0.46	2.78	596	76
Tyler Thornburg R 2022 · 3.83 FIP	33	SU	3.83	17.5%	11.2%	1.5%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.56	301	76
Tyler Sturdevant R 2017 · 4.48 FIP	31	SU	4.48	13.5%	6.7%	3.0%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	3.44	149	75
Miguel Mejia R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	31	SU	4.41	15.7%	10.7%	2.3%	.341	—	—	—	—	—	3.37	108	74
Clayton Mortensen R 2017 · 4.59 FIP	32	SU	4.59	23.2%	14.2%	3.0%	.258	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	221	74
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	74
Juan Sandoval R 2015 · 3.82 FIP	34	SU	3.82	15.4%	6.0%	2.3%	.294	3.33	17.4%	8.8%	116	-0.49	3.24	225	73
Ross Ohlendorf R 2016 · 4.93 FIP	33	SU	4.93	23.4%	10.7%	4.5%	.254	—	—	—	—	—	3.30	122	72
Jeff Manship R 2016 · 4.87 FIP	31	SU	4.87	19.0%	10.6%	3.7%	.262	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	114	72
Ryan Cook R 2018 · 3.96 FIP	31	SU	3.96	25.1%	10.8%	2.9%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	102	72
Josh Lueke R 2019 · 4.11 FIP	34	SU	4.11	20.4%	6.4%	3.5%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.29	107	72
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	72
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	71
Dustin McGowan R 2015 · 5.32 FIP	33	SU	5.32	15.0%	14.5%	3.0%	.300	4.23	20.9%	13.0%	145	-1.09	3.82	208	71
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	70

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	49	18.6%	10.9%	1.28	5.00
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Roansy Contreras ('24)	1.2	77	19.5%	10.1%	1.36	4.78
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Josh Winckowski ('24)	1.2	77	18.3%	8.2%	1.13	4.21