Daniel Norris prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Daniel Norris P Columbus Clippers

Age 33 LHP 6'2" / 207 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 165 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 106114vR 122

ERA4.60

FIP4.67

K%21.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%11.6%

ROS IP165

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 165 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF6060

CTRL3535

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1088.8

Whiff%

p4424.5%

p1817.5%

xwOBA vs

p100.412

FB+1.4

SL-0.6

CH-4.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	21	MLB MLE	Toronto Blue Jays	5	1	7	30	4	5	1	20%	1.3	13.3%	16.7%	-3.3%	3.3%	5.40	5.91	-0.1
2014	21	MLB RAW	Toronto Blue Jays	5	1	7	30	4	5	1	20%	1.3	13.3%	16.7%	-3.3%	3.3%	5.40	6.10	-0.1
2015	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	29	151	656	123	60	14	100%	5.2	17.3%	9.5%	7.9%	2.3%	4.06	4.10	+1.4
2015	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	29	151	656	123	60	14	100%	5.2	18.8%	9.1%	9.6%	2.1%	4.06	3.87	+1.9
2016	23	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	30	155	677	162	53	14	97%	5.0	22.3%	8.1%	14.2%	2.1%	4.00	3.38	+2.9
2016	23	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	30	155	677	162	53	14	97%	5.0	23.9%	7.8%	16.1%	2.1%	4.00	3.21	+3.2
2017	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	28	24	116	540	104	57	15	86%	4.1	18.9%	10.7%	8.2%	2.9%	6.15	4.46	+0.6
2017	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	28	24	116	540	104	57	15	86%	4.1	19.3%	10.6%	8.7%	2.8%	6.15	4.47	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	4 levels	15	11	56	248	68	24	8	73%	3.7	25.5%	9.5%	16.0%	4.2%	4.98	4.44	+0.3
2018	25	MIX RAW	4 levels	15	11	56	248	68	24	8	73%	3.7	27.4%	9.7%	17.7%	3.2%	4.98	3.81	+0.7
2019	26	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	32	29	144	610	125	38	25	91%	4.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.3%	4.49	4.51	+0.7
2019	26	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	32	29	144	610	125	38	25	91%	4.5	20.5%	6.2%	14.3%	4.1%	4.49	4.41	+0.8
2020	27	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	14	1	28	116	28	7	2	7%	2.0	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	1.8%	3.25	2.81	+0.6
2020	27	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	14	1	28	116	28	7	2	7%	2.0	24.1%	6.0%	18.1%	1.7%	3.25	2.77	+0.6
2021	28	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	56	0	57	248	58	29	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.5%	6.16	4.50	+0.0
2021	28	MLB RAW	Milwaukee Brewers	56	0	57	248	58	29	9	0%	1.0	23.4%	11.7%	11.7%	3.6%	6.16	4.64	-0.1
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	6	70	296	76	32	11	13%	1.5	26.4%	11.6%	14.8%	4.6%	4.61	4.86	-0.3
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	6	70	296	76	32	11	13%	1.5	25.7%	10.8%	14.9%	3.7%	4.61	4.34	+0.2
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	4.6%	5.49	5.43	-0.5
2023	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	4.6%	5.49	5.43	-0.5
2023	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	16	80	369	73	41	16	55%	2.8	19.8%	11.1%	8.7%	4.3%	5.49	5.40	-0.5
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			215	86	582	2530	545	221	90	40%	2.7	21.5%	8.7%	12.8%	3.6%	4.73	4.38	+1.2
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	CLE	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	9.6%	11.6%	3.2%	4.60	4.67	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	CLE	25	25	150	634	129	64	22	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.82	4.97	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	CLE	22	22	135	569	111	61	22	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.9%	5.11	5.31	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	CLE	25	25	150	633	129	64	22	100%	6.0	20.4%	10.1%	10.2%	3.5%	4.82	4.97	-0.1
2028	35	MLB CTX	CLE	22	22	135	570	111	61	22	100%	6.1	19.4%	10.7%	8.7%	3.9%	5.11	5.31	-0.6
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		262	134	867	3733	785	346	134	51%	3.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.47	+4.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		61	31	200	861	181	80	31	51%	3.3	21.0%	9.3%	11.8%	3.6%	4.80	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		285	147	864	3790	787	350	123	52%	3.0	20.8%	9.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.76	4.30	+2.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		66	34	200	877	182	81	29	52%	3.0	20.8%	9.2%	11.5%	3.3%	4.76	4.30	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Daniel Norris (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.67	21.3%	9.6%	3.2%	—	5.13	19.9%	9.5%	285	+0.46	—	—	—
Hisanori Takahashi L 2010 · 3.50 FIP	35	SW	3.50	22.1%	7.0%	2.5%	.292	3.81	21.1%	15.0%	118	+0.31	3.50	240	67
Kwang Hyun Kim L 2021 · 4.21 FIP	33	SP-	4.21	17.7%	8.2%	2.9%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	146	60
Luke Westphal L 2022 · 4.35 FIP	33	SW	4.35	24.2%	13.4%	2.9%	.302	5.19	15.7%	-0.7%	26	+0.84	2.97	294	54
Everett Teaford L 2015 · 4.42 FIP	31	SP-	4.42	13.9%	7.6%	2.8%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	208	53
Edgar Osuna L 2019 · 5.09 FIP	31	SW	5.09	10.0%	7.2%	3.5%	.373	—	—	—	—	—	5.05	175	48
Orlando Lara L 2017 · 4.39 FIP	32	SP	4.39	14.7%	6.5%	3.1%	.346	4.09	22.0%	14.2%	104	-0.30	3.85	426	46
Brandon Mann L 2017 · 4.24 FIP	33	SU	4.24	19.8%	11.3%	2.5%	.286	3.59	17.8%	6.4%	52	-0.65	3.59	190	45
Chris Narveson L 2015 · 4.79 FIP	33	SW	4.79	23.6%	8.0%	4.9%	.333	4.59	14.1%	4.5%	193	-0.20	4.00	625	44
Alejandro Soto L 2019 · 4.03 FIP	33	SW	4.03	17.1%	6.9%	2.7%	.376	—	—	—	—	—	3.96	280	44
Colt Hynes L 2017 · 3.75 FIP	32	SW	3.75	14.1%	4.6%	2.3%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	3.42	169	44
Jorge Castillo L 2015 · 4.50 FIP	33	SP	4.50	16.8%	9.2%	3.0%	.292	4.95	12.4%	7.2%	186	+0.45	4.50	408	43
Carlos Teller L 2019 · 4.90 FIP	32	SP-	4.90	13.1%	14.2%	2.0%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	333	41
Micah Bowie L 2007 · 4.60 FIP	32	SW	4.60	16.9%	10.9%	2.8%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.78	140	40
Tomas Solis L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	33	SP	4.86	12.4%	8.5%	3.1%	.273	5.95	10.1%	2.4%	117	+1.09	4.20	327	40
Pat Misch L 2015 · 3.94 FIP	33	SP-	3.94	11.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.257	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	265	38
Oscar Rivera L 2015 · 3.68 FIP	34	SP	3.68	14.2%	6.9%	1.7%	.298	4.66	10.4%	3.0%	129	+0.98	3.68	237	38
Arturo Lopez L 2016 · 5.26 FIP	33	SP	5.26	11.5%	7.9%	3.9%	.341	4.92	11.3%	5.2%	224	-0.34	4.34	445	38
Mauricio Lara L 2015 · 3.62 FIP	36	SP	3.62	13.9%	6.9%	1.5%	.310	3.69	12.1%	5.1%	220	+0.07	3.62	444	37
Roy Merritt L 2017 · 3.95 FIP	31	SP	3.95	16.2%	5.8%	2.7%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	129	37
Tsuyoshi Wada L 2014 · 3.60 FIP	33	SP	3.60	19.7%	6.2%	2.5%	.290	3.66	16.8%	9.7%	119	+0.06	3.60	188	36

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	5.2	94	21.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.77
Scott Sanders ('99)	3.4	97	21.2%	9.3%	1.23	4.86
Derek Holland ('21)	7.3	113	19.7%	8.4%	1.35	4.62
Bud Norris ('18)	6.1	122	21.7%	9.1%	1.15	4.45
Héctor Santiago ('21)	4.7	105	20.7%	10.6%	1.38	4.12
Chase Anderson ('24)	5.5	101	19.7%	8.1%	1.48	4.41
Drew Hutchison ('22)	2.9	84	19.2%	8.2%	1.29	4.89