Casey Sadler prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Casey Sadler P Tacoma Rainiers

Age 36 RHP 6'3" / 223 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 50 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.29

K%22.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%13.2%

ROS IP51

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 50 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p3493.4

Whiff%

p3923.7%

p6825.5%

xwOBA vs

p900.243

FB+6.4

SL+4.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	24	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	0	10	49	7	5	0	0%	1.7	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	0.0%	7.84	3.19	+0.2
2014	24	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	0	10	49	7	5	0	0%	1.7	14.3%	10.2%	4.1%	0.0%	7.84	3.20	+0.2
2015	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	14	86	353	53	26	10	100%	6.1	12.6%	7.9%	4.8%	3.5%	4.19	4.95	-0.0
2015	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	14	86	353	53	26	10	100%	6.1	15.0%	7.4%	7.6%	2.8%	4.19	4.29	+0.6
2017	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	26	7	79	326	66	11	5	27%	3.0	15.2%	3.4%	11.8%	2.1%	4.00	3.37	—
2017	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	26	7	79	326	66	11	5	27%	3.0	20.2%	3.4%	16.9%	1.5%	4.00	2.67	—
2018	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	29	8	81	360	64	28	7	28%	2.8	16.0%	7.8%	8.2%	2.2%	3.65	3.95	+0.6
2018	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	29	8	81	360	64	28	7	28%	2.8	17.8%	7.8%	10.0%	1.9%	3.65	3.68	+0.8
2019	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	5	85	356	84	17	11	11%	1.8	21.8%	4.9%	16.9%	3.1%	2.65	3.56	+1.0
2019	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	5	85	356	84	17	11	11%	1.8	23.6%	4.8%	18.8%	3.1%	2.65	3.41	+1.2
2020	30	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	17	0	19	86	21	12	3	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.0%	10.5%	3.6%	5.12	4.77	-0.0
2020	30	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	17	0	19	86	21	12	3	0%	1.1	24.4%	14.0%	10.5%	3.5%	5.12	4.81	-0.1
2021	31	MIX MLE	3 levels	46	0	44	156	43	10	1	0%	1.0	25.5%	6.9%	18.6%	0.7%	0.61	2.21	+1.2
2021	31	MIX RAW	3 levels	46	0	44	156	43	10	1	0%	1.0	27.6%	6.4%	21.2%	0.6%	0.61	2.12	+1.3
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	19	88	21	6	4	5%	0.8	18.2%	6.3%	11.8%	4.0%	7.71	4.57	—
2023	33	MIX MLE	3 levels	22	1	19	88	21	6	4	5%	0.8	18.2%	6.3%	11.8%	4.0%	7.71	4.57	—
2023	33	MIX RAW	3 levels	22	1	19	88	21	6	4	5%	0.8	23.9%	6.8%	17.0%	4.5%	7.71	4.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			101	2	126	518	104	42	10	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	2.86	3.48	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	36	MLB	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	9.2%	13.2%	2.8%	4.26	4.29	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	37	MLB MLE	SEA	42	0	44	187	40	18	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.69	-0.1
2027	37	MLB CTX	SEA	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	9.8%	11.5%	3.2%	4.52	4.69	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	2	126	520	104	42	10	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.49	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		161	3	200	824	165	67	16	2%	1.2	20.1%	8.1%	12.0%	1.9%	2.87	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		206	35	423	1774	313	118	46	17%	2.1	17.7%	6.6%	11.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.86	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		97	17	200	838	148	56	22	17%	2.1	17.7%	6.6%	11.0%	2.6%	3.66	3.86	+1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Casey Sadler (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.29	22.4%	9.2%	2.8%	—	4.69	21.3%	11.5%	44	+0.40	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	78
Juan Sandoval R 2017 · 3.42 FIP	36	SU	3.42	16.7%	7.2%	1.5%	.298	5.41	15.9%	8.7%	57	+1.99	3.24	225	72
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	69
Salvador Valdez R 2019 · 4.30 FIP	36	SW	4.30	17.1%	8.2%	2.9%	.405	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	326	68
Rudy Gonzalez R 2017 · 4.72 FIP	36	SU	4.72	15.8%	7.1%	3.8%	.354	—	—	—	—	—	3.31	119	67
Peter Moylan R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	36	SU	3.11	18.4%	8.2%	0.9%	.259	3.84	18.2%	9.1%	145	+0.73	2.54	431	66
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	65
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	65
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	64
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	63
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	63
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	62
Chris Nichting R 2002 · 4.67 FIP	36	SU	4.67	16.6%	3.3%	4.6%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	103	62
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	62
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	61
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	59
Daniel Bard R 2021 · 3.62 FIP	36	SU	3.62	26.3%	11.5%	2.3%	.337	3.64	24.6%	10.3%	110	+0.02	2.56	456	54
Brian Sweeney R 2010 · 4.63 FIP	36	SU	4.63	9.5%	3.4%	3.5%	.226	—	—	—	—	—	3.03	108	53
Matt Bush R 2022 · 3.73 FIP	36	SU	3.73	30.3%	6.6%	4.3%	.224	3.79	26.2%	17.5%	36	+0.06	2.87	249	52
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2020 · 5.02 FIP	36	SU	5.02	17.5%	12.7%	3.3%	.381	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	132	51

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	20.9%	8.9%	0.93	3.52
Sam LeCure ('15)	1.6	53	22.3%	9.2%	0.87	3.51
Scott Oberg ('19)	1.3	51	21.5%	9.3%	0.91	3.85
Lucas Luetge ('23)	1.2	58	22.5%	8.5%	0.77	3.60
Jared Burton ('14)	1.8	60	19.9%	8.9%	0.77	3.44
Hideki Okajima ('13)	1.3	63	20.4%	8.3%	0.97	3.09
Blaine Hardy ('21)	1.5	48	18.5%	8.3%	0.99	3.78