Michael Feliz prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Michael Feliz P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 33 RHP 6'4" / 250 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 1 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.31

FIP4.33

K%24.0%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%14.8%

ROS IP1

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 1 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL4040

CMD5555

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4093.8

Whiff%

p7429.1%

p6224.4%

xwOBA vs

p100.376

SL+1.5

FB-1.3

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	28	17	119	483	110	36	9	61%	4.3	18.5%	8.0%	10.4%	1.9%	3.17	3.58	+1.9
2015	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	28	17	119	483	110	36	9	61%	4.3	22.8%	7.5%	15.3%	1.9%	3.17	3.14	+2.6
2016	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	49	2	73	309	102	29	11	4%	1.5	35.2%	8.1%	27.0%	3.8%	5.03	3.25	+1.1
2016	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	49	2	73	309	102	29	11	4%	1.5	33.0%	9.4%	23.6%	3.6%	5.03	3.45	+1.0
2017	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	48	1	50	224	73	22	8	2%	1.0	32.1%	9.6%	22.5%	3.8%	5.40	3.68	+0.5
2017	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	48	1	50	224	73	22	8	2%	1.0	32.6%	9.8%	22.8%	3.6%	5.40	3.58	+0.6
2018	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	56	0	58	260	67	24	8	0%	1.0	25.3%	10.6%	14.7%	3.0%	5.93	3.94	+0.4
2018	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	56	0	58	260	67	24	8	0%	1.0	25.8%	9.2%	16.5%	3.1%	5.93	3.83	+0.5
2019	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	68	1	71	304	95	33	12	1%	1.0	30.4%	11.0%	19.4%	4.3%	3.41	4.28	+0.2
2019	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	68	1	71	304	95	33	12	1%	1.0	31.2%	10.9%	20.4%	3.9%	3.41	4.01	+0.5
2020	27	MLB MLE	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	12	2	2	1	0%	0.6	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	8.3%	32.40	8.38	-0.1
2020	27	MLB RAW	Pittsburgh Pirates	3	0	2	12	2	2	1	0%	0.6	16.7%	16.7%	0.0%	8.3%	32.40	12.10	-0.1
2021	28	MIX MLE	3 levels	39	1	39	163	46	9	6	3%	1.0	26.0%	5.4%	20.6%	3.0%	5.59	3.21	+0.6
2021	28	MIX RAW	3 levels	39	1	39	163	46	9	6	3%	1.0	28.2%	5.5%	22.7%	3.7%	5.59	3.44	+0.5
2022	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	3	53	210	56	21	2	8%	1.4	23.2%	10.1%	13.1%	0.6%	2.73	2.77	+1.1
2022	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	3	53	210	56	21	2	8%	1.4	26.7%	10.0%	16.7%	1.0%	2.73	2.66	+1.2
2023	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	13	0	13	54	15	5	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	4.0%	3.38	4.34	—
2023	30	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	13	0	13	54	15	5	2	0%	1.0	23.9%	8.3%	15.6%	4.0%	3.38	4.34	—
2023	30	AAA RAW	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	13	0	13	54	15	5	2	0%	1.0	27.8%	9.3%	18.5%	3.7%	3.38	3.92	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			228	1	250	1097	328	107	43	0%	1.1	29.9%	9.8%	20.1%	3.9%	5.29	4.00	+1.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	33	MLB	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	24.0%	9.2%	14.8%	3.1%	4.31	4.33	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	34	MLB MLE	NYY	121	0	127	535	123	52	18	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.64	-0.1
2028	35	MLB MLE	NYY	108	0	114	480	106	49	18	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.98	-0.6
2027	34	MLB CTX	NYY	7	0	7	30	7	3	1	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.7%	13.4%	3.4%	4.51	4.64	-0.0
2028	35	MLB CTX	NYY	1	0	1	4	1	0	0	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.2%	11.9%	3.8%	4.79	4.98	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		236	1	258	1131	336	110	44	0%	1.1	29.7%	9.8%	19.9%	3.9%	5.27	3.97	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		183	1	200	877	260	85	34	0%	1.1	29.7%	9.8%	19.9%	3.9%	5.27	3.97	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		341	25	478	2019	534	183	59	7%	1.4	26.5%	9.1%	17.4%	2.9%	4.31	3.63	+0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	10	200	845	223	77	25	7%	1.4	26.5%	9.1%	17.4%	2.9%	4.31	3.63	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Michael Feliz (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.33	24.0%	9.2%	3.1%	—	4.80	22.6%	12.7%	241	+0.47	—	—	—
Tony Barnette R 2017 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	22.6%	7.1%	2.7%	.335	2.61	25.0%	20.2%	26	-0.95	2.61	144	67
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2021 · 4.48 FIP	33	SU	4.48	26.2%	11.2%	4.0%	.263	4.02	18.1%	6.8%	51	-0.46	4.02	104	67
Giovanni Carrara R 2001 · 4.06 FIP	33	SU	4.06	20.1%	6.0%	3.5%	.249	4.28	15.7%	7.9%	173	+0.22	2.50	462	64
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2018 · 3.45 FIP	34	SU	3.45	22.5%	7.3%	2.4%	.242	3.97	24.6%	15.2%	65	+0.52	3.45	132	64
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	64
Blake Parker R 2018 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	25.4%	6.5%	4.3%	.290	4.12	24.9%	16.5%	121	+0.00	2.52	406	63
Jose Manuel Lopez R 2017 · 3.61 FIP	32	SU	3.61	20.4%	10.0%	1.8%	.331	6.14	17.9%	3.7%	41	+2.53	3.50	170	63
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	63
Scott McGough R 2023 · 4.57 FIP	33	SU	4.57	28.6%	9.3%	4.9%	.266	4.23	19.4%	9.4%	126	-0.34	3.55	429	63
Felipe Arredondo R 2019 · 4.65 FIP	32	SU	4.65	16.2%	7.1%	3.7%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	337	63
D.J. Carrasco R 2010 · 3.45 FIP	33	SU	3.45	19.7%	9.4%	1.5%	.275	4.47	12.0%	6.7%	49	+1.02	3.23	490	63
Jon Edwards R 2019 · 4.43 FIP	31	SU	4.43	25.1%	11.6%	3.6%	.290	—	—	—	—	—	2.40	132	61
Aquilino López R 2008 · 3.70 FIP	33	SU	3.70	17.7%	5.2%	2.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.10	207	61
Rafael Betancourt R 2008 · 4.12 FIP	33	SU	4.12	20.7%	6.5%	3.6%	.304	2.37	31.4%	27.3%	181	-1.75	1.79	686	61
Dale Thayer R 2014 · 3.56 FIP	33	SU	3.56	23.4%	4.9%	3.3%	.243	4.34	15.8%	8.8%	38	+0.78	2.75	239	60
Jim Miller R 2015 · 3.95 FIP	33	SU	3.95	18.8%	4.1%	3.5%	.275	5.43	20.4%	6.3%	17	+1.48	3.95	140	60
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	59
Jean Machi R 2015 · 4.56 FIP	33	SU	4.56	16.3%	8.6%	3.2%	.276	4.24	18.5%	11.9%	128	-0.32	2.16	306	59
Zack Segovia R 2016 · 3.33 FIP	33	SU	3.33	20.2%	5.9%	2.2%	.312	4.55	17.6%	4.0%	57	+1.22	3.33	144	59
Rafael Martín R 2017 · 3.40 FIP	33	SU	3.40	20.4%	5.1%	2.5%	.305	4.71	22.5%	16.5%	47	+1.31	2.94	227	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	79	25.8%	9.8%	1.40	4.83
Félix Peña ('21)	1.3	65	23.9%	8.5%	1.35	4.66
Daniel Norris ('23)	2.9	73	21.5%	8.9%	1.39	4.73
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Brad Peacock ('21)	2.8	93	24.7%	10.1%	1.27	4.11
Justin Grimm ('22)	1.9	75	23.0%	10.1%	1.17	5.10
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78