Dylan Covey

P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 35 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2027

Overview

AAARP

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	31	MIX2 levels	36	7	75	3.96	4.30	17.4%	10.2%	0.2	K 16.2% · BB 9.7% · FIP 4.26
2024	32	MIX3 levels	18	0	20	2.66	3.20	22.6%	10.7%	—	K 23.7% · BB 10.9% · FIP 3.52
2025	33	AAAATL	6	1	7	0.00	2.42	13.3%	3.3%	—	K 13.3% · BB 3.3% · FIP 2.40
2027PROJ	35	MLBATL	9	9	52	4.50	4.45	22.3%	9.6%	0.3
2028PROJ1% MLB	36	MLBATL	—	—	0	4.69	4.82	21.3%	10.2%	—
2029PROJ0% MLB	37	MLBATL	—	—	0	5.01	5.22	20.2%	10.8%	—

Last 3 seasons WAR 0.2 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023

FB Velo57

xwOBA vs28

Whiff%10

K%10

CompsJesse Estrada (age 35) · Tiago Da Silva (age 34) · Ivan Maldonado (age 35)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 120111vR 103

ERA4.50

FIP4.45

K%22.3%

BB%9.6%

K-BB%12.8%

Proj IP52

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 52 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

SL+1.7

FB-1.8

CT-2.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	26	26	140	595	100	43	13	100%	5.4	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	1.6%	3.59	3.93	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	26	26	140	595	100	43	13	100%	5.4	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.59	3.80	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	6	6	29	123	26	17	2	100%	4.9	17.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.0%	1.84	4.65	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	6	6	29	123	26	17	2	100%	4.9	21.1%	13.8%	7.3%	1.6%	1.84	3.95	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	81	348	49	34	21	65%	3.5	13.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.4%	6.89	6.82	-1.7
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	15	81	348	49	34	21	65%	3.5	14.1%	9.8%	4.3%	6.0%	6.89	6.52	-1.4
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	160	700	126	63	16	82%	4.7	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.2%	4.49	3.98	+1.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	28	160	700	126	63	16	82%	4.7	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	2.3%	4.49	4.00	+1.7
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	23	110	497	87	35	18	74%	3.5	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	3.5%	5.58	4.52	+0.5
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	23	110	497	87	35	18	74%	3.5	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	5.58	4.60	+0.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	8	0	14	60	11	2	2	0%	1.8	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.4%	7.07	3.85	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	8	0	14	60	11	2	2	0%	1.8	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.3%	7.07	3.81	+0.1
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	7	75	333	58	34	8	19%	2.1	16.2%	9.7%	6.6%	2.4%	3.96	4.26	+0.3
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	7	75	333	58	34	8	19%	2.1	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.4%	3.96	4.30	+0.2
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.9%	12.9%	1.9%	2.66	3.52	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	23.7%	10.9%	12.9%	1.9%	2.66	3.52	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	1.2%	2.66	3.20	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.42	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			100	46	307	1382	214	125	52	46%	3.1	15.5%	9.0%	6.4%	3.8%	6.18	5.13	-2.0
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	35	MLB	ATL	9	9	52	220	49	21	7	100%	5.8	22.3%	9.6%	12.8%	3.0%	4.50	4.45	+0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	36	MLB MLE	ATL	8	8	46	193	41	20	7	100%	5.7	21.3%	10.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.82	+0.0
2029	37	MLB MLE	ATL	7	7	40	169	34	18	6	100%	5.7	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.8%	5.01	5.22	-0.1
2028	36	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	10.2%	11.2%	3.4%	4.69	4.82	—
2029	37	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.2%	10.8%	9.4%	3.8%	5.01	5.22	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		100	46	308	1384	214	125	52	46%	3.1	15.5%	9.0%	6.4%	3.8%	6.18	5.00	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		65	30	200	899	139	81	34	46%	3.1	15.5%	9.0%	6.4%	3.8%	6.18	5.00	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		188	106	637	2770	437	249	78	56%	3.4	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	33	200	869	137	78	25	56%	3.4	15.8%	9.0%	6.8%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Covey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.45	22.3%	9.6%	3.0%	—	5.01	20.8%	10.3%	86	+0.56	—	—	—
Jesse Estrada R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	35	SP-	4.34	14.4%	6.6%	2.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	257	71
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	56
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	54
Yohan Pino R 2017 · 5.33 FIP	33	SP-	5.33	15.2%	3.6%	5.6%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	193	52
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	52
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	51
Juan Delgadillo R 2017 · 4.47 FIP	34	SP	4.47	10.9%	6.2%	2.7%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	143	50
Kenshin Kawakami R 2010 · 4.06 FIP	35	SP	4.06	15.1%	5.6%	2.8%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	3.97	244	50
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	2.87	262	49
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	49
Jose Oyervides R 2017 · 5.38 FIP	35	SP	5.38	18.0%	6.3%	5.5%	.254	5.66	16.3%	5.1%	115	+0.28	3.01	407	49
Angel Sánchez R 2024 · 3.77 FIP	34	SP	3.77	11.8%	5.0%	1.9%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	284	49
David Buchanan R 2024 · 4.26 FIP	35	SP-	4.26	14.7%	6.5%	2.9%	.337	5.56	12.2%	4.1%	29	+1.30	3.88	560	47
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	46
Jorge Martinez R 2019 · 3.71 FIP	34	SP	3.71	16.3%	5.7%	2.3%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	3.53	214	45
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	44
Josh Lowey R 2019 · 3.45 FIP	34	SP	3.45	22.4%	6.8%	2.5%	.303	—	—	—	—	—	2.22	426	44
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	43
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	43
Chris Smith R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	35	SP-	3.85	20.8%	8.9%	2.5%	.279	5.08	15.6%	8.1%	130	+1.23	3.79	477	43

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.2	64	17.3%	9.8%	1.41	5.73
Mike Wright Jr. ('21)	1.4	55	17.4%	8.8%	1.47	5.97
Steve Shields ('85-'89, -3 WAR*)	1.1	55	17.0%*	9.0%*	1.61*	5.49*
Scott Aldred ('00)	2.5	71	13.8%	10.1%	1.40	6.02
Dave Borkowski ('08)	1.7	58	16.9%	9.5%	1.25	5.87
Dennis Powell ('85-'93, -2 WAR*)	1.7	49	17.6%*	10.1%*	1.18*	5.31*
Darrel Akerfelds ('86-'91, -3 WAR*)	1.2	78	15.8%*	11.9%*	1.61*	5.40*