Dylan Covey — OGILVIE

Dylan Covey P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 34 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 14 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.58

FIP4.55

K%20.7%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%11.0%

ROS IP14

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 14 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5050

CMD3535

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p5795.0

Whiff%

p1015.9%

p1015.7%

xwOBA vs

p280.338

SL+1.7

FB-1.8

CT-2.6

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	A+ MLE	Stockton Ports	26	26	140	595	100	43	13	100%	5.4	12.9%	8.3%	4.6%	1.6%	3.59	3.93	—
2015	23	A+ RAW	Stockton Ports	26	26	140	595	100	43	13	100%	5.4	16.8%	7.2%	9.6%	2.2%	3.59	3.80	—
2016	24	AA MLE	Midland RockHounds	6	6	29	123	26	17	2	100%	4.9	17.1%	15.2%	1.9%	2.0%	1.84	4.65	—
2016	24	AA RAW	Midland RockHounds	6	6	29	123	26	17	2	100%	4.9	21.1%	13.8%	7.3%	1.6%	1.84	3.95	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	15	81	348	49	34	21	65%	3.5	13.3%	10.7%	2.6%	6.4%	6.89	6.82	-1.7
2017	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	15	81	348	49	34	21	65%	3.5	14.1%	9.8%	4.3%	6.0%	6.89	6.52	-1.4
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	28	160	700	126	63	16	82%	4.7	17.4%	9.1%	8.3%	2.2%	4.49	3.98	+1.8
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	28	160	700	126	63	16	82%	4.7	18.0%	9.0%	9.0%	2.3%	4.49	4.00	+1.7
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	23	110	497	87	35	18	74%	3.5	16.4%	7.1%	9.3%	3.5%	5.58	4.52	+0.5
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	23	110	497	87	35	18	74%	3.5	17.5%	7.0%	10.5%	3.6%	5.58	4.60	+0.4
2020	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	8	0	14	60	11	2	2	0%	1.8	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.4%	7.07	3.85	+0.1
2020	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	8	0	14	60	11	2	2	0%	1.8	18.3%	3.3%	15.0%	3.3%	7.07	3.81	+0.1
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	7	75	333	58	34	8	19%	2.1	16.0%	9.7%	6.3%	2.4%	3.96	4.28	+0.2
2023	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	36	7	75	333	58	34	8	19%	2.1	16.0%	9.7%	6.3%	2.4%	3.96	4.28	+0.2
2023	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	36	7	75	333	58	34	8	19%	2.1	17.4%	10.2%	7.2%	2.4%	3.96	4.30	+0.2
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.9%	2.66	3.59	—
2024	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	22.9%	10.9%	12.0%	1.9%	2.66	3.59	—
2024	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	18	0	20	84	19	9	1	0%	1.1	22.6%	10.7%	11.9%	1.2%	2.66	3.20	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2025	33	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.40	—
2025	33	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	6	1	7	30	4	1	0	17%	1.2	13.3%	3.3%	10.0%	0.0%	0.00	2.42	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			100	46	307	1382	214	125	52	46%	3.1	15.5%	9.0%	6.4%	3.8%	6.18	5.13	-2.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	ATL	2	2	14	59	12	6	2	100%	7.0	20.7%	9.7%	11.0%	2.9%	4.58	4.55	+0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	ATL	26	26	157	663	131	68	21	100%	6.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.89	+0.0
2028	36	MLB MLE	ATL	23	23	139	587	110	64	21	100%	6.0	18.7%	10.8%	7.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.26	-0.6
2027	35	MLB CTX	ATL	1	1	9	38	8	4	1	100%	9.0	19.8%	10.2%	9.5%	3.2%	4.76	4.89	+0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.7%	10.8%	7.9%	3.6%	5.06	5.26	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	47	316	1418	221	129	53	47%	3.1	15.6%	9.1%	6.5%	3.7%	6.14	4.99	-1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		64	30	200	898	140	82	34	47%	3.1	15.6%	9.1%	6.5%	3.7%	6.14	4.99	-1.0
Career	—	MLE		188	106	637	2770	435	249	78	56%	3.4	15.7%	9.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		59	33	200	869	137	78	25	56%	3.4	15.7%	9.0%	6.7%	2.8%	4.55	4.46	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dylan Covey (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.55	20.7%	9.7%	2.9%	—	5.06	19.3%	8.8%	296	+0.51	—	—	—
Kyle Lohse R 2015 · 4.77 FIP	36	SP-	4.77	16.2%	6.0%	4.2%	.309	4.97	14.8%	8.8%	59	+0.20	4.77	211	69
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	64
Chris Young R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	36	SP-	4.69	16.6%	8.6%	3.5%	.209	6.33	21.1%	11.4%	119	+1.64	4.69	242	62
Jason Berken R 2016 · 4.54 FIP	32	SW	4.54	11.5%	8.3%	2.5%	.308	—	—	—	—	—	4.34	219	62
Josh Lindblom R 2021 · 3.79 FIP	34	SP-	3.79	22.7%	6.9%	3.2%	.319	5.07	20.8%	12.0%	133	+1.28	3.50	348	60
Mike Pelfrey R 2017 · 5.69 FIP	33	SP-	5.69	14.5%	10.6%	4.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	3.70	404	60
Hector Noesí R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	32	SP-	5.11	22.3%	7.2%	5.4%	.271	—	—	—	—	—	4.37	250	58
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.83	16.3%	10.6%	260	+0.51	3.42	933	56
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	56
Sam LeCure R 2016 · 4.17 FIP	32	SW	4.17	16.6%	6.5%	3.0%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	4.17	171	55
Joe Blanton R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	34	SW	3.45	22.4%	4.6%	3.0%	.272	3.70	23.5%	17.0%	124	+0.25	3.01	240	55
Ubaldo Jiménez R 2017 · 4.95 FIP	33	SP-	4.95	21.5%	9.0%	4.6%	.325	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	469	54
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	52
Ross Wolf R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	32	SP-	3.43	8.1%	5.5%	0.6%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.43	106	52
Guillermo Moscoso R 2018 · 5.07 FIP	34	SP-	5.07	18.2%	8.4%	4.5%	.318	4.35	12.6%	5.9%	104	-0.72	3.77	264	52
Roberto Hernandez R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	34	SP-	4.38	11.8%	6.7%	2.6%	.287	4.38	13.8%	6.8%	86	+0.00	4.38	171	52
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	51
Matt Cain R 2017 · 4.82 FIP	32	SP	4.82	13.2%	7.6%	3.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	4.82	294	49
Jonathan Castellanos R 2016 · 3.40 FIP	34	SP	3.40	15.2%	7.4%	1.2%	.314	5.04	9.4%	0.3%	174	+1.64	3.40	394	47
Kyle Davies R 2015 · 3.58 FIP	31	SP	3.58	13.8%	6.1%	1.6%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	153	47

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.4	157	19.8%	10.2%	1.25	4.78
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Julio Teheran ('23)	5.2	147	20.4%	8.8%	1.34	4.12
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47