Dylan Covey
P
Gwinnett Stripers
+0.1
WAR
Age 34
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
ERA4.17
FIP4.45
xFIP4.42
SIERA4.45
K%21.8%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.1%
IP23
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.1peak
2026
STUF3535
CTRL5050
CMD3535
K†5050
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p1015.9%
K%
p1015.7%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SL+1.7
FB-1.8
CT-2.6
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 26 | 140 | 595 | 100 | 43 | 13 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 1.6% | 3.59 | 3.91 | +2.2 |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 6 | 6 | 29 | 123 | 26 | 17 | 2 | 17.1% | 15.2% | 2.0% | 1.84 | 4.65 | +0.1 |
| 2017 | 25 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 23 | 15 | 81 | 348 | 49 | 34 | 21 | 13.3% | 10.7% | 6.4% | 6.89 | 6.83 | -1.6 |
| 2018 | 26 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 34 | 28 | 160 | 700 | 126 | 63 | 16 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 2.2% | 4.49 | 3.98 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 27 | MLB | Chicago White Sox | 31 | 23 | 110 | 497 | 87 | 35 | 18 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 3.5% | 5.58 | 4.52 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 18.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 7.07 | 3.97 | +0.2 |
| 2023 | 31 | MLB | Philadelphia Phillies | 36 | 7 | 75 | 333 | 58 | 34 | 8 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.34 | +0.6 |
| 2024 | 32 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 18 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 24.3% | 12.7% | 1.9% | 2.66 | 3.71 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 6 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | — | — | — | 0.00 | — | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 23 | — | 23 | 95 | 20 | 10 | 3 | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | 4.36 | 4.57 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 21 | — | 21 | 90 | 18 | 9 | 3 | 20.2% | 10.3% | 3.0% | 4.58 | 4.72 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 188 | 106 | 637 | 2770 | 438 | 253 | 78 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.47 | +6.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 33 | 200 | 869 | 137 | 79 | 24 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 2.8% | 4.55 | 4.47 | +1.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Covey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.57 | 21.0% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 4.72 | 20.2% | 10.0% | 21 | +0.15 | — | — | — |
| Diego Moreno R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.75 | 18.6% | 9.4% | 3.7% | .232 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.31 | 187 | 82 |
| Mark Lowe R 2026 · 5.01 FIP | 34 | SU | 5.01 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.7% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.30 | 153 | 81 |
| Manny Acosta R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.09 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.5% | .273 | 3.07 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -1.02 | 3.07 | 102 | 81 |
| Josh Lueke R 2026 · 4.14 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.14 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 3.6% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.32 | 107 | 79 |
| Alexi Ogando R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.09 | 15.0% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .312 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.80 | 132 | 78 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.96 | 23.8% | 8.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 4.52 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 63 | +0.56 | 2.57 | 251 | 78 |
| Mark Serrano R 2025 · 5.25 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.25 | 20.2% | 7.9% | 5.2% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 120 | 78 |
| Carlos Fisher R 2026 · 3.94 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.94 | 18.1% | 12.9% | 1.3% | .333 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.48 | 147 | 78 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 3.81 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.81 | 22.6% | 9.3% | 2.6% | .230 | 4.45 | 19.4% | 12.7% | 78 | +0.64 | 3.81 | 208 | 77 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.63 | 18.4% | 6.0% | 2.4% | .262 | 3.50 | 14.0% | 8.2% | 40 | -0.13 | 2.37 | 140 | 76 |
| Santiago Casilla R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 35 | SW | 3.50 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.6% | .290 | 3.90 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.40 | 3.50 | 219 | 76 |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.39 | 18.3% | 6.6% | 3.6% | .282 | 4.11 | 18.6% | 12.0% | 67 | -0.28 | 4.11 | 186 | 76 |
| Hector Navarro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.37 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 3.4% | .281 | 2.96 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.41 | 2.30 | 126 | 76 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2024 · 4.60 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.60 | 23.2% | 14.2% | 3.0% | .258 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 221 | 75 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 4.51 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.51 | 17.4% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .304 | 3.66 | 19.8% | 11.6% | 113 | -0.85 | 2.89 | 326 | 75 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2028 · 4.12 FIP | 36 | SW | 4.12 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.1% | .267 | 6.46 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.34 | 4.12 | 145 | 75 |
| Rafael Dolis R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 34 | SU | 3.60 | 19.9% | 11.9% | 1.2% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.80 | 162 | 75 |
| Chris Hatcher R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 33 | SU | 5.41 | 18.0% | 9.6% | 4.8% | .316 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.93 | 176 | 75 |
| Ross Ohlendorf R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 23.4% | 10.7% | 4.6% | .254 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.33 | 122 | 74 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.50 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.4% | .347 | 3.82 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.68 | 3.32 | 119 | 74 |
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.