Dylan Covey
P
Gwinnett Stripers
Age 34
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 161 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 124115vR 106
ERA4.59
FIP4.58
K%20.9%
BB%10.0%
K-BB%10.9%
ROS IP161
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 161 IP
Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Statcast Percentiles
FB Velo
p5795.0
Whiff%
p1015.9%
K%
p1015.7%
xwOBA vs
p280.338
SL+1.7
FB-1.8
CT-2.6
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 26 | 140 | 595 | 100 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 12.9% | 8.3% | 4.6% | 1.1% | 3.59 | 3.68 | — |
| 2015 | 23 | A+ | Stockton Ports | 26 | 26 | 140 | 595 | 100 | 43 | 13 | 100% | 5.4 | 16.8% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 2.2% | 3.59 | 3.80 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 6 | 6 | 29 | 123 | 26 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 4.9 | 17.1% | 15.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.84 | 4.65 | — |
| 2016 | 24 | AA | Midland RockHounds | 6 | 6 | 29 | 123 | 26 | 17 | 2 | 100% | 4.9 | 21.1% | 13.8% | 7.3% | 1.6% | 1.84 | 3.95 | — |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 15 | 81 | 348 | 49 | 34 | 21 | 65% | 3.5 | 13.3% | 10.7% | 2.6% | 6.3% | 6.89 | 6.76 | -1.7 |
| 2017 | 25 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 15 | 81 | 348 | 49 | 34 | 21 | 65% | 3.5 | 14.1% | 9.8% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.89 | 6.52 | -1.4 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 160 | 700 | 126 | 63 | 16 | 82% | 4.7 | 17.4% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 2.1% | 4.49 | 3.93 | +2.8 |
| 2018 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 34 | 28 | 160 | 700 | 126 | 63 | 16 | 82% | 4.7 | 18.0% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 2.3% | 4.49 | 4.00 | +2.6 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 23 | 110 | 497 | 87 | 35 | 18 | 74% | 3.5 | 16.4% | 7.1% | 9.3% | 3.3% | 5.58 | 4.41 | +1.3 |
| 2019 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 23 | 110 | 497 | 87 | 35 | 18 | 74% | 3.5 | 17.5% | 7.0% | 10.5% | 3.6% | 5.58 | 4.60 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.3% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 7.07 | 3.79 | +0.1 |
| 2020 | 28 | MLB | Boston Red Sox | 8 | 0 | 14 | 60 | 11 | 2 | 2 | 0% | 1.8 | 18.3% | 3.3% | 15.0% | 3.3% | 7.07 | 3.81 | +0.1 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 7 | 75 | 333 | 58 | 34 | 8 | 19% | 2.1 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 5.9% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.38 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 7 | 75 | 333 | 58 | 34 | 8 | 19% | 2.1 | 17.4% | 10.2% | 7.2% | 2.4% | 3.96 | 4.30 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 24.3% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 1.9% | 2.66 | 3.72 | — |
| 2024 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 18 | 0 | 20 | 84 | 19 | 9 | 1 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.6% | 10.7% | 11.9% | 1.2% | 2.66 | 3.20 | — |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 6 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.40 | — |
| 2025 | 33 | AAA | Gwinnett Stripers | 6 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 17% | 1.2 | 13.3% | 3.3% | 10.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 2.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 34 | MLB | ATL | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 155 | 74 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.58 | +1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 26 | 26 | 157 | 663 | 132 | 70 | 22 | 100% | 6.0 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.92 | +0.9 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | ATL | 23 | 23 | 139 | 587 | 111 | 66 | 21 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.28 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 35 | MLB | ATL | 1 | 1 | 9 | 38 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 100% | 9.0 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 9.4% | 3.2% | 4.79 | 4.92 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 36 | MLB | ATL | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 18.9% | 11.2% | 7.8% | 3.6% | 5.09 | 5.28 | — |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 101 | 47 | 316 | 1418 | 221 | 129 | 53 | 47% | 3.1 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 6.14 | 4.99 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 64 | 30 | 200 | 898 | 140 | 82 | 34 | 47% | 3.1 | 15.6% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 3.7% | 6.14 | 4.99 | +1.0 | ||
| Career | — | 188 | 106 | 637 | 2770 | 438 | 253 | 73 | 56% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.38 | +7.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 33 | 200 | 869 | 137 | 79 | 23 | 56% | 3.4 | 15.8% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 2.6% | 4.55 | 4.38 | +2.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Covey (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.58 | 20.9% | 10.0% | 2.9% | — | 5.09 | 19.5% | 8.6% | 296 | +0.51 | — | — | — |
| Mike Pelfrey R 2025 · 5.65 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.65 | 14.5% | 10.6% | 4.4% | .266 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 404 | 69 |
| Kyle Lohse R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.98 | 16.2% | 6.0% | 4.5% | .309 | 5.53 | 14.8% | 8.8% | 59 | +0.55 | 4.98 | 211 | 67 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2025 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 64 |
| Chris Young R 2028 · 4.67 FIP | 36 | SP- | 4.67 | 16.6% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .209 | 6.29 | 21.1% | 11.4% | 119 | +1.62 | 4.67 | 242 | 62 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.05 | 18.9% | 7.2% | 4.8% | .280 | 4.16 | 15.8% | 7.7% | 134 | -0.89 | 3.49 | 393 | 62 |
| Albert Suárez R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.89 | 19.5% | 6.8% | 2.9% | .293 | 4.97 | 16.8% | 9.0% | 41 | +1.08 | 3.59 | 577 | 62 |
| Jason Berken R 2024 · 4.31 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.31 | 11.5% | 8.3% | 2.1% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 219 | 61 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 3.97 FIP | 34 | SP- | 3.97 | 22.7% | 6.9% | 3.5% | .319 | 5.22 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 133 | +1.25 | 3.66 | 348 | 59 |
| Hector Noesí R 2024 · 4.92 FIP | 32 | SP- | 4.92 | 22.3% | 7.2% | 5.1% | .271 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 59 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2028 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 56 |
| Paolo Espino R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.32 | 20.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | .277 | 4.85 | 16.8% | 10.5% | 260 | +0.53 | 3.45 | 933 | 56 |
| Matt Garza R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 55 |
| Sam LeCure R 2024 · 4.27 FIP | 32 | SW | 4.27 | 16.6% | 6.5% | 3.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.27 | 171 | 54 |
| Guillermo Moscoso R 2026 · 5.03 FIP | 34 | SP- | 5.03 | 18.2% | 8.4% | 4.4% | .318 | 4.19 | 12.6% | 5.9% | 104 | -0.84 | 3.79 | 264 | 52 |
| Tiago Da Silva R 2026 · 3.72 FIP | 34 | SW | 3.72 | 15.0% | 7.2% | 1.8% | .365 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.11 | 287 | 52 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.26 FIP | 34 | SP- | 4.26 | 11.8% | 6.7% | 2.4% | .287 | 4.22 | 13.8% | 6.8% | 86 | -0.04 | 4.22 | 171 | 51 |
| David Buchanan R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.23 | 15.1% | 7.6% | 2.6% | .337 | 5.96 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 29 | +1.73 | 4.23 | 443 | 51 |
| Ross Wolf R 2024 · 3.39 FIP | 32 | SP- | 3.39 | 8.1% | 5.5% | 0.5% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.39 | 106 | 51 |
| Matt Cain R 2024 · 4.83 FIP | 32 | SP | 4.83 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 3.4% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.83 | 294 | 50 |
| Jonathan Castellanos R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 34 | SP | 3.56 | 15.2% | 7.4% | 1.5% | .314 | 5.01 | 9.4% | 0.3% | 174 | +1.45 | 3.56 | 394 | 47 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 157 | 20.0% | 10.6% | 1.25 | 4.80 |
| Tom Koehler ('17) | 3 | 146 | 18.1% | 10.2% | 1.24 | 4.62 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| James Kaprielian ('23) | 3 | 105 | 20.5% | 9.6% | 1.26 | 4.58 |
| Yovani Gallardo ('18) | 4 | 132 | 15.4% | 10.2% | 1.18 | 4.97 |
| Andrew Cashner ('19) | 5 | 157 | 16.7% | 9.2% | 1.11 | 4.54 |
| Edinson Volquez ('17) | 3 | 161 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 0.88 | 4.39 |