Juan Minaya prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Juan Minaya P Altoona Curve

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 210 lbs AA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 108100vR 91

ERA4.35

FIP4.35

K%23.4%

BB%10.0%

K-BB%13.4%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p6095.2

Whiff%

p5626.2%

p6925.7%

xwOBA vs

p700.293

CH+0.7

SL-0.7

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	0	55	229	59	21	2	0%	1.6	20.5%	9.3%	11.2%	1.2%	2.80	3.20	—
2015	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	0	55	229	59	21	2	0%	1.6	25.8%	9.2%	16.6%	0.9%	2.80	2.57	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	62	270	53	22	3	0%	1.4	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	1.6%	3.75	3.40	+0.9
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	62	270	53	22	3	0%	1.4	19.6%	8.1%	11.5%	1.1%	3.75	3.08	+1.1
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	53	0	63	263	66	25	7	0%	1.2	24.4%	9.6%	14.8%	2.6%	3.59	3.69	+0.6
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	53	0	63	263	66	25	7	0%	1.2	25.1%	9.5%	15.6%	2.7%	3.59	3.64	+0.7
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	0	70	303	85	34	7	0%	1.0	27.0%	11.4%	15.6%	2.1%	3.60	3.40	+1.0
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	0	70	303	85	34	7	0%	1.0	28.1%	11.2%	16.8%	2.3%	3.60	3.43	+0.9
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	62	275	68	26	8	0%	1.3	22.9%	9.7%	13.2%	2.7%	3.79	3.90	+0.5
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	62	275	68	26	8	0%	1.3	24.7%	9.5%	15.3%	2.9%	3.79	3.85	+0.5
2021	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	46	0	69	302	80	35	7	0%	1.5	25.0%	11.8%	13.2%	2.3%	2.87	3.75	+0.7
2021	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	46	0	69	302	80	35	7	0%	1.5	26.5%	11.6%	14.9%	2.3%	2.87	3.62	+0.8
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	1	58	268	53	30	8	2%	1.4	16.6%	11.8%	4.8%	3.6%	6.17	5.19	-0.4
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	1	58	268	53	30	8	2%	1.4	19.8%	11.2%	8.6%	3.0%	6.17	4.61	-0.0
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	2.4%	4.34	4.26	—
2023	32	MIX MLE	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.7%	8.0%	2.4%	4.34	4.26	—
2023	32	MIX RAW	2 levels	34	0	37	172	41	20	4	0%	1.1	23.8%	11.6%	12.2%	2.3%	4.34	3.90	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			160	0	178	778	196	88	18	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.70	+1.8
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.4%	10.0%	13.4%	2.9%	4.35	4.35	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	PIT	44	0	46	193	43	20	6	0%	1.0	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.72	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	PIT	38	0	40	169	36	19	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	11.2%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.12	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	10.6%	11.8%	3.3%	4.57	4.72	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	11.2%	10.0%	3.7%	4.90	5.12	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		160	0	178	778	196	88	18	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.68	+1.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		180	0	200	874	220	99	20	0%	1.1	25.2%	11.3%	13.9%	2.3%	3.69	3.68	+2.1
Career	—	MLE		371	1	476	2082	460	217	49	0%	1.3	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.3%	3.82	3.83	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		156	0	200	875	193	91	20	0%	1.3	22.1%	10.4%	11.7%	2.3%	3.82	3.83	+1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Minaya (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.35	23.4%	10.0%	2.9%	—	4.91	21.9%	11.0%	86	+0.56	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	71
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	70
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	69
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	69
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	69
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	67
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	67
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	67
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	65
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	65
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	64
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	64
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	63
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	61
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	61
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	60
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	60
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	60
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	59

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.6	45	24.0%	11.2%	1.05	4.08
José Cisnero ('24)	1.4	46	24.0%	11.3%	1.01	4.16
Al Reyes ('08)	2.1	54	23.2%	10.7%	1.11	3.84
Brandon Workman ('21)	1.6	55	24.3%	11.1%	1.04	4.02
David Aardsma ('15)	1.7	48	23.1%	12.4%	1.09	4.27
Michael Wuertz ('11)	2.1	52	25.3%	11.3%	0.96	3.71
Louis Coleman ('18)	1.4	46	23.4%	10.8%	1.17	3.51