Mike Morin prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Mike Morin P Gwinnett Stripers

Age 35 RHP 6'4" / 220 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.36

FIP4.46

K%21.7%

BB%9.3%

K-BB%12.3%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL6060

CMD4545

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.6

Whiff%

p2321.5%

p1012.4%

xwOBA vs

p340.331

FB+1.1

CH+1.0

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2014	23	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	60	0	59	246	54	13	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	5.3%	16.7%	1.2%	2.90	2.57	+1.4
2014	23	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	60	0	59	246	54	13	3	0%	1.0	22.0%	5.3%	16.7%	1.2%	2.90	2.59	+1.4
2015	24	MIX MLE	3 levels	62	1	54	238	61	13	6	2%	0.9	24.7%	5.7%	19.0%	2.7%	6.20	3.22	+0.9
2015	24	MIX RAW	3 levels	62	1	54	238	61	13	6	2%	0.9	25.6%	5.5%	20.2%	2.5%	6.20	3.01	+1.0
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	71	0	66	265	60	15	8	0%	0.9	21.6%	6.2%	15.4%	2.6%	4.25	3.48	+0.8
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	71	0	66	265	60	15	8	0%	0.9	22.6%	5.7%	17.0%	3.0%	4.25	3.54	+0.8
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	38	1	59	247	41	11	8	3%	1.6	15.4%	4.6%	10.8%	3.6%	4.55	4.34	+0.1
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	38	1	59	247	41	11	8	3%	1.6	16.6%	4.5%	12.1%	3.2%	4.55	4.03	+0.4
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	3	58	243	58	13	3	7%	1.3	20.3%	6.1%	14.3%	1.6%	4.06	3.03	+1.1
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	3	58	243	58	13	3	7%	1.3	23.9%	5.3%	18.5%	1.2%	4.06	2.44	+1.5
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	60	1	63	260	38	13	7	2%	1.0	14.1%	5.1%	9.0%	2.6%	4.16	3.98	+0.4
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	60	1	63	260	38	13	7	2%	1.0	14.6%	5.0%	9.6%	2.7%	4.16	3.96	+0.4
2020	29	MLB MLE	Miami Marlins	3	0	4	12	2	1	0	0%	1.3	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.75	+0.1
2020	29	MLB RAW	Miami Marlins	3	0	4	12	2	1	0	0%	1.3	16.7%	8.3%	8.3%	0.0%	0.00	2.85	+0.1
2023	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	16	1	18	82	16	11	3	6%	1.1	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	4.1%	5.09	5.46	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	16	1	18	82	16	11	3	6%	1.1	16.8%	12.1%	4.7%	4.1%	5.09	5.46	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	16	1	18	82	16	11	3	6%	1.1	19.5%	13.4%	6.1%	3.7%	5.09	5.36	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			241	0	229	957	194	49	21	0%	0.9	20.3%	5.1%	15.2%	2.2%	4.57	3.24	+3.6
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.7%	9.3%	12.3%	3.0%	4.36	4.46	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	ATL	44	0	46	193	40	19	6	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.3%	4.64	4.83	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	ATL	38	0	40	169	33	18	6	0%	1.1	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	3.8%	5.00	5.23	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	9.9%	10.7%	3.3%	4.64	4.83	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.5%	10.6%	8.9%	3.8%	5.00	5.23	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	0	229	959	194	49	21	0%	1.0	20.3%	5.1%	15.1%	2.2%	4.57	3.24	+3.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		211	0	200	837	169	43	18	0%	0.9	20.3%	5.1%	15.1%	2.2%	4.57	3.24	+3.1
Career	—	MLE		354	7	380	1593	310	93	39	2%	1.1	19.4%	5.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.31	3.54	+3.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		186	4	200	839	163	49	21	2%	1.1	19.4%	5.8%	13.6%	2.4%	4.31	3.54	+2.0

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Mike Morin (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.46	21.7%	9.3%	3.0%	—	5.02	20.1%	9.9%	86	+0.56	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	81
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	78
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	77
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	76
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	75
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	74
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	74
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	73
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	73
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	71
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	71
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	70
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	70
Yoshihisa Hirano R 2019 · 3.72 FIP	35	SU	3.72	26.2%	8.6%	3.2%	.303	5.02	17.5%	4.8%	12	+1.30	3.45	132	69
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	68
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	68
Erubiel Gonzalez R 2015 · 3.43 FIP	36	SU	3.43	12.4%	6.0%	1.1%	.328	3.26	14.8%	10.4%	69	-0.17	2.99	119	66
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	66
Jesus Adrian Castillo R 2019 · 5.13 FIP	35	SU	5.13	13.1%	7.8%	3.9%	.319	—	—	—	—	—	2.23	173	66
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	65

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.8	46	20.4%	7.7%	1.02	4.59
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23
Juan Carlos Oviedo ('14)	1.9	56	18.9%	8.0%	1.16	4.28
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Junichi Tazawa ('18)	2.0	49	22.2%	6.5%	1.12	4.12
Joe Borowski ('08)	2.3	57	18.9%	9.0%	1.05	4.18