Luke Bard prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Luke Bard P Buffalo Bisons

Age 35 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs AAA peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.41

K%23.3%

BB%9.5%

K-BB%13.8%

ROS IP52

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 51 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5555

CTRL5050

CMD4545

K†5555

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4394.0

Whiff%

p5325.7%

p1013.6%

xwOBA vs

p150.354

SL+2.2

CH-0.8

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	A MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	52	213	47	15	1	0%	1.9	16.3%	8.3%	8.0%	0.5%	2.41	3.07	—
2015	24	A RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	28	0	52	213	47	15	1	0%	1.9	22.1%	7.0%	15.0%	0.5%	2.41	2.41	—
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	44	0	65	283	57	28	1	0%	1.5	15.7%	11.2%	4.4%	0.3%	3.74	3.38	—
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	44	0	65	283	57	28	1	0%	1.5	20.1%	9.9%	10.2%	0.4%	3.74	2.84	—
2017	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	41	0	65	285	99	21	5	0%	1.6	28.7%	8.0%	20.6%	2.1%	2.76	2.87	—
2017	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	41	0	65	285	99	21	5	0%	1.6	34.7%	7.4%	27.4%	1.8%	2.76	2.03	—
2018	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	40	0	60	265	65	21	10	0%	1.5	22.2%	8.2%	13.9%	4.3%	4.80	4.64	-0.1
2018	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	40	0	60	265	65	21	10	0%	1.5	24.5%	7.9%	16.6%	3.8%	4.80	4.15	+0.3
2019	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	48	4	68	293	66	22	12	8%	1.4	21.5%	7.7%	13.8%	4.1%	5.43	4.51	+0.0
2019	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	48	4	68	293	66	22	12	8%	1.4	22.5%	7.5%	15.0%	4.1%	5.43	4.42	+0.1
2020	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	6	0	5	23	7	0	2	0%	0.9	30.4%	0.0%	30.4%	8.7%	6.75	5.30	-0.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	6	0	5	23	7	0	2	0%	0.9	30.4%	0.0%	30.4%	8.7%	6.75	5.35	-0.0
2022	31	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	1	51	206	46	16	9	3%	1.4	20.1%	8.0%	12.1%	4.8%	3.55	5.03	-0.3
2022	31	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	1	51	206	46	16	9	3%	1.4	22.3%	7.8%	14.6%	4.4%	3.55	4.54	+0.0
2023	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.9%	6.15	4.72	—
2023	32	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	20.1%	9.4%	10.7%	3.9%	6.15	4.72	—
2023	32	AAA RAW	Buffalo Bisons	16	6	26	124	29	13	4	38%	1.6	23.4%	10.5%	12.9%	3.2%	6.15	4.35	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			55	3	81	334	68	23	14	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.44	4.52	+0.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	3.1%	4.40	4.41	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	TOR	44	0	46	193	43	19	7	0%	1.0	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.77	-0.1
2028	37	MLB MLE	TOR	38	0	40	169	36	18	6	0%	1.1	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	3.8%	4.91	5.13	-0.3
2027	36	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	10.1%	12.2%	3.5%	4.62	4.77	—
2028	37	MLB CTX	TOR	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	21.3%	10.7%	10.7%	3.8%	4.91	5.13	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		55	3	81	336	68	23	14	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.55	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		136	7	200	825	167	56	34	5%	1.5	20.4%	6.9%	13.5%	4.2%	4.45	4.55	-0.0
Career	—	MLE		260	11	393	1692	356	145	48	4%	1.5	21.0%	8.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	6	200	861	181	74	25	4%	1.5	21.0%	8.6%	12.5%	2.8%	4.03	3.97	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Luke Bard (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.41	23.3%	9.5%	3.1%	—	4.94	21.8%	11.5%	86	+0.53	—	—	—
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	75
Mark Serrano R 2019 · 5.25 FIP	33	SU	5.25	20.2%	7.9%	5.2%	.289	—	—	—	—	—	3.16	120	75
Jean Machi R 2017 · 4.12 FIP	35	SU	4.12	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	2.16	306	74
Brendan Donnelly R 2006 · 4.21 FIP	35	SU	4.21	19.1%	9.0%	2.9%	.260	3.19	18.6%	10.1%	60	-1.02	2.23	385	72
Toby Borland R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	35	SU	4.28	20.9%	8.1%	3.5%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	248	71
Juan Sandoval R 2016 · 3.24 FIP	35	SU	3.24	18.2%	10.2%	0.7%	.288	4.40	16.3%	9.1%	116	+1.16	3.24	225	70
Spencer Patton R 2023 · 4.33 FIP	35	SU	4.33	18.9%	9.7%	2.9%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	2.79	239	70
Huascar Brazobán R 2023 · 3.52 FIP	33	SU	3.52	25.3%	11.3%	2.1%	.304	3.54	21.9%	11.8%	195	+0.02	3.08	370	69
Leo Rosales R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	34	SU	3.99	18.1%	10.8%	1.9%	.261	4.24	7.8%	-0.4%	22	+0.25	3.85	130	69
Hector Navarro R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	35	SU	4.35	15.0%	5.4%	3.3%	.281	3.00	15.2%	9.0%	81	-1.35	2.30	126	69
Brian Schlitter R 2021 · 4.70 FIP	35	SU	4.70	14.9%	9.1%	3.1%	.318	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	300	68
Rafael Martín R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	35	SU	4.71	22.5%	6.0%	5.0%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	227	66
Joe Nelson R 2009 · 5.35 FIP	34	SU	5.35	19.8%	14.3%	3.9%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	3.08	139	66
Zack Segovia R 2019 · 4.55 FIP	36	SU	4.55	17.6%	13.6%	2.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	3.33	144	66
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2019 · 5.11 FIP	35	SW	5.11	25.0%	11.2%	4.9%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	335	65
Matt Miller R 2006 · 4.98 FIP	34	SU	4.98	18.5%	13.8%	3.1%	.214	—	—	—	—	—	2.13	101	64
Hirokazu Sawamura R 2022 · 4.02 FIP	34	SU	4.02	18.1%	11.3%	1.9%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	63
Jim Miller R 2016 · 5.43 FIP	34	SU	5.43	20.4%	14.1%	4.1%	.347	—	—	—	—	—	3.95	140	63
Rodolfo Aguirre R 2019 · 4.50 FIP	34	SU	4.50	21.3%	5.1%	4.7%	.244	—	—	—	—	—	3.39	212	63
Kazuhiro Sasaki R 2003 · 3.30 FIP	35	SU	3.30	19.3%	8.7%	1.3%	.274	—	—	—	—	—	2.76	223	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	55	21.7%	9.1%	1.43	4.56
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.5	59	24.8%	9.4%	1.42	4.21
Josh Lindblom ('21)	1.0	52	22.1%	9.6%	1.25	4.78
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
John Johnstone ('00)	1.4	56	19.4%	9.5%	1.23	4.01