Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 25 | 22 | 133 | 571 | 81 | 21 | 10 | 88% | 5.3 | 12.5% | 3.9% | 8.6% | 1.8% | 5.02 | 3.52 | — |
| 2015 | 24 | AAA | Durham Bulls | 25 | 22 | 133 | 571 | 81 | 21 | 10 | 88% | 5.3 | 14.2% | 3.7% | 10.5% | 1.8% | 5.02 | 3.33 | — |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 65 | 279 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 17.6% | 4.8% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 3.18 | 3.19 | +1.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 44 | 0 | 65 | 279 | 54 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.5 | 19.4% | 4.7% | 14.7% | 2.2% | 3.18 | 3.24 | +1.1 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 70 | 306 | 44 | 13 | 11 | 6% | 1.9 | 12.8% | 4.4% | 8.4% | 3.9% | 4.52 | 4.71 | +0.0 |
| 2017 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 36 | 2 | 70 | 306 | 44 | 13 | 11 | 6% | 1.9 | 14.4% | 4.2% | 10.1% | 3.6% | 4.52 | 4.45 | +0.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 68 | 289 | 60 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 21.4% | 6.3% | 15.1% | 1.2% | 2.25 | 2.73 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 57 | 0 | 68 | 289 | 60 | 17 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 20.8% | 5.9% | 14.9% | 1.4% | 2.25 | 2.85 | +1.5 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 20.9% | 4.5% | 16.4% | 2.1% | 3.91 | 3.06 | +0.9 |
| 2019 | 28 | MIX | 3 levels | 58 | 0 | 53 | 229 | 48 | 13 | 4 | 0% | 0.9 | 21.0% | 5.7% | 15.3% | 1.7% | 3.91 | 3.01 | +1.0 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 0 | 24 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 16.3% | 1.1% | 2.59 | 2.44 | +0.6 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 25 | 0 | 24 | 98 | 19 | 3 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 3.1% | 16.3% | 1.0% | 2.59 | 2.44 | +0.6 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 68 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 0.8% | 2.81 | 2.62 | +1.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 68 | 0 | 64 | 270 | 62 | 22 | 2 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.0% | 8.1% | 14.8% | 0.7% | 2.81 | 2.60 | +1.5 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 3 | 59 | 242 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 5% | 1.0 | 21.8% | 5.5% | 16.4% | 1.9% | 3.22 | 3.00 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 3 levels | 61 | 3 | 59 | 242 | 52 | 14 | 4 | 5% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 5.8% | 15.7% | 1.7% | 3.22 | 2.93 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 62 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 5.6% | 17.7% | 1.2% | 4.76 | 2.50 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Minnesota Twins | 62 | 0 | 57 | 248 | 58 | 14 | 3 | 0% | 0.9 | 23.4% | 5.6% | 17.7% | 1.2% | 4.76 | 2.48 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66 | 0 | 69 | 279 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 1.7% | 3.80 | 3.36 | +1.1 |
| 2024 | 33 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 66 | 0 | 69 | 279 | 48 | 17 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.2% | 6.1% | 11.1% | 1.8% | 3.80 | 3.39 | +1.1 |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 16 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 3.5% | 7.04 | 4.67 | — |
| 2025 | 34 | AAA | Las Vegas Aviators | 16 | 0 | 15 | 70 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.1% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 4.3% | 7.04 | 5.06 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | OAK | 57 | 0 | 60 | 252 | 44 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 10.6% | 2.5% | 4.14 | 4.25 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 53 | 223 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 44 | 0 | 46 | 195 | 30 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 38 | 0 | 40 | 167 | 23 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | OAK | 50 | 0 | 53 | 224 | 36 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 16.3% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.43 | 4.62 | -0.0 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | OAK | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 29 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.2% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 3.3% | 4.78 | 5.02 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 38 | MLB | OAK | 38 | 0 | 40 | 169 | 24 | 15 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.0% | 8.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 5.18 | 5.45 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 528 | 0 | 541 | 2289 | 444 | 146 | 43 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 3.81 | 3.31 | +13.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 195 | 0 | 200 | 846 | 164 | 54 | 16 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 6.4% | 13.0% | 1.9% | 3.81 | 3.31 | +4.9 | ||
| Career | — | 518 | 27 | 676 | 2881 | 520 | 152 | 53 | 5% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 5.3% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 3.87 | 3.26 | +16.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 153 | 8 | 200 | 852 | 154 | 45 | 16 | 5% | 1.3 | 18.0% | 5.3% | 12.8% | 1.8% | 3.87 | 3.26 | +5.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Dylan Floro (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.25 | 17.3% | 6.7% | 2.5% | — | 4.99 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 138 | +0.74 | — | — | — |
| Jean Machi R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.92 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 2.8% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 186 | 82 |
| Jim Johnson R 2026 · 4.58 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.58 | 16.8% | 7.8% | 3.5% | .285 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 251 | 81 |
| Manny Acosta R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.99 | 18.1% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .273 | 3.04 | 23.2% | 9.9% | 44 | -0.95 | 3.04 | 102 | 79 |
| Peter Moylan R 2027 · 3.10 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.10 | 18.4% | 8.2% | 0.9% | .259 | 3.82 | 18.2% | 9.1% | 145 | +0.72 | 3.10 | 174 | 77 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 77 |
| Francisco Del Rosario R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 36 | SU | 4.09 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 2.0% | .267 | 6.61 | 11.9% | -0.6% | 77 | +2.52 | 4.09 | 145 | 76 |
| Hector Navarro R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.75 | 15.0% | 5.4% | 4.1% | .281 | 2.93 | 15.2% | 9.0% | 81 | -1.82 | 2.30 | 126 | 76 |
| Matt Belisle R 2026 · 3.16 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.16 | 16.8% | 8.7% | 0.7% | .300 | 3.49 | 18.8% | 13.8% | 141 | +0.33 | 2.51 | 174 | 76 |
| Ramon E Ramirez R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.63 | 14.0% | 5.8% | 1.8% | .286 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.35 | 140 | 76 |
| Brian Schlitter R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.76 | 14.9% | 9.1% | 3.2% | .318 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.20 | 244 | 75 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 74 |
| Mark Lowe R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 16.4% | 10.0% | 3.3% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.37 | 153 | 74 |
| Erubiel Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.54 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.54 | 12.4% | 6.0% | 1.3% | .328 | 3.35 | 14.8% | 10.4% | 69 | -0.19 | 3.03 | 119 | 74 |
| Dustin McGowan R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 35 | SU | 4.59 | 19.4% | 6.7% | 4.2% | .277 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.83 | 208 | 74 |
| Wade Davis R 2026 · 5.15 FIP | 35 | SU | 5.15 | 20.0% | 10.0% | 4.5% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.00 | 320 | 73 |
| Logan Kensing R 2026 · 3.26 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.26 | 16.5% | 7.9% | 1.0% | .308 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.77 | 172 | 72 |
| Juan Sandoval R 2026 · 3.17 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.17 | 18.2% | 10.2% | 0.6% | .288 | 4.50 | 16.3% | 9.1% | 116 | +1.33 | 3.17 | 225 | 72 |
| Blaine Boyer R 2026 · 3.76 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.76 | 9.2% | 5.0% | 1.5% | .319 | 4.35 | 15.3% | 7.3% | 78 | +0.59 | 3.21 | 209 | 71 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 71 |
| Ivan Maldonado R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SW | 4.91 | 12.8% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .269 | 5.68 | 6.4% | -3.3% | 104 | +0.77 | 4.91 | 172 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 50 | 15.9% | 7.6% | 1.18 | 4.57 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Matt Albers ('19) | 5 | 49 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 1.37 | 4.21 |