Phillips Valdez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Phillips Valdez P Albuquerque Isotopes

Age 34 RHP 6'2" / 160 lbs AAA

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 142 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 122114vR 106

ERA4.72

FIP4.70

K%20.6%

BB%10.6%

K-BB%10.0%

ROS IP143

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 142 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL4040

CMD4040

K†5050

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p4494.1

Whiff%

p3523.2%

p2218.1%

xwOBA vs

p470.315

FB+1.9

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	18	103	449	80	35	3	60%	3.4	13.5%	9.0%	4.5%	0.9%	2.81	3.59	—
2015	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	18	103	449	80	35	3	60%	3.4	17.8%	7.8%	10.0%	0.7%	2.81	2.94	—
2016	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	27	27	153	657	109	51	10	100%	5.7	13.1%	8.7%	4.5%	1.4%	4.24	3.88	—
2016	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	27	27	153	657	109	51	10	100%	5.7	16.6%	7.8%	8.8%	1.5%	4.24	3.53	—
2017	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	35	3	67	283	53	17	2	9%	1.9	15.6%	6.5%	9.1%	0.8%	4.16	3.06	—
2017	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	35	3	67	283	53	17	2	9%	1.9	18.7%	6.0%	12.7%	0.7%	4.16	2.67	—
2018	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	19	135	562	104	45	10	61%	4.4	16.2%	8.6%	7.5%	1.7%	2.73	3.79	—
2018	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	19	135	562	104	45	10	61%	4.4	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	1.8%	2.73	3.52	—
2019	27	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	14	95	442	83	45	13	38%	2.6	17.0%	10.6%	6.4%	3.1%	4.75	4.73	-0.2
2019	27	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	14	95	442	83	45	13	38%	2.6	18.8%	10.2%	8.6%	2.9%	4.75	4.56	-0.0
2020	28	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	24	0	30	137	30	16	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.2%	3.26	3.96	+0.2
2020	28	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	24	0	30	137	30	16	3	0%	1.3	21.9%	11.7%	10.2%	2.2%	3.26	3.99	+0.2
2021	29	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	56	249	55	32	6	0%	1.2	21.1%	13.1%	8.0%	2.3%	5.30	4.25	+0.2
2021	29	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	56	249	55	32	6	0%	1.2	22.1%	12.9%	9.2%	2.4%	5.30	4.24	+0.2
2022	30	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	1	55	242	48	30	3	2%	1.2	18.1%	12.9%	5.2%	1.2%	3.90	3.86	+0.5
2022	30	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	1	55	242	48	30	3	2%	1.2	19.8%	12.4%	7.4%	1.2%	3.90	3.70	+0.6
2023	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	22	15	67	327	49	41	11	68%	3.1	12.9%	11.3%	1.6%	3.5%	8.15	5.35	—
2023	31	AAA MLE	Albuquerque Isotopes	22	15	67	327	49	41	11	68%	3.1	12.9%	11.3%	1.6%	3.5%	8.15	5.35	—
2023	31	AAA RAW	Albuquerque Isotopes	22	15	67	327	49	41	11	68%	3.1	15.0%	12.5%	2.4%	3.4%	8.15	5.60	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			76	0	103	461	96	50	10	0%	1.4	20.8%	10.8%	10.0%	2.2%	4.56	3.96	+0.7
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	34	MLB	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.6%	10.6%	10.0%	2.9%	4.72	4.70	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	35	MLB MLE	COL	141	0	148	625	123	70	21	0%	1.1	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.3%	4.91	5.04	-0.8
2028	36	MLB MLE	COL	125	0	131	554	103	65	20	0%	1.0	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.7%	5.21	5.41	-1.2
2027	35	MLB CTX	COL	8	0	8	34	7	4	1	0%	1.0	19.6%	11.1%	8.5%	3.3%	4.91	5.04	-0.0
2028	36	MLB CTX	COL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	3.7%	5.21	5.41	—
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		84	0	111	495	103	54	11	0%	1.3	20.7%	10.9%	9.9%	2.2%	4.58	3.96	+0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		151	0	200	894	186	97	20	0%	1.3	20.7%	10.9%	9.9%	2.2%	4.58	3.96	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		296	97	761	3348	526	328	63	33%	2.6	15.7%	9.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.04	-1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		78	25	200	880	138	86	16	33%	2.6	15.7%	9.8%	5.9%	1.9%	4.20	4.04	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Phillips Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.70	20.6%	10.6%	2.9%	—	5.21	19.1%	7.7%	279	+0.51	—	—	—
Tiago Da Silva R 2019 · 3.95 FIP	34	SW	3.95	15.0%	7.2%	2.2%	.365	—	—	—	—	—	2.21	287	60
Paolo Espino R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	34	SP-	4.32	20.2%	5.1%	4.2%	.277	4.81	16.6%	10.9%	260	+0.49	3.42	933	58
Chris Jakubauskas R 2011 · 4.42 FIP	32	SW	4.42	15.7%	7.9%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	165	58
Ivan Maldonado R 2015 · 4.60 FIP	35	SW	4.60	12.8%	8.7%	2.7%	.269	5.41	6.4%	-3.3%	104	+0.81	4.60	172	56
Fernando Rodriguez Jr. R 2018 · 4.07 FIP	34	SW	4.07	23.7%	9.9%	3.1%	.253	5.11	25.0%	13.8%	32	+1.04	3.34	335	54
Giovanni Carrara R 2002 · 4.78 FIP	34	SU	4.78	14.5%	7.2%	3.6%	.239	3.83	17.1%	7.9%	158	-0.95	2.50	462	53
Keiichi Yabu R 2005 · 4.05 FIP	36	SU	4.05	16.8%	8.8%	2.3%	.307	3.48	15.9%	6.6%	68	-0.57	3.48	126	51
Angel Sánchez R 2023 · 4.90 FIP	33	SW	4.90	19.0%	10.5%	3.8%	.333	3.77	11.8%	6.8%	27	-1.13	3.77	284	51
Nelson Figueroa R 2008 · 3.94 FIP	34	SW	3.94	17.1%	11.8%	1.4%	.306	3.96	17.5%	9.9%	192	+0.02	3.71	499	49
Daniel Guerrero R 2019 · 5.59 FIP	34	SW	5.59	14.7%	11.1%	4.2%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.61	269	48
Jarrett Grube R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	34	SP-	4.74	18.9%	7.2%	4.2%	.280	4.41	15.8%	7.7%	134	-0.33	3.75	393	48
Tim Dillard R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	34	SU	3.62	15.1%	8.8%	1.2%	.310	4.32	13.2%	7.1%	188	+0.70	2.92	432	48
Tim Adleman R 2022 · 5.69 FIP	34	SP-	5.69	17.5%	8.6%	5.4%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.63	605	47
Kenshin Kawakami R 2009 · 3.97 FIP	34	SP-	3.97	15.7%	7.6%	2.2%	.277	4.06	15.1%	9.5%	87	+0.09	3.97	244	47
Rudy Gonzalez R 2015 · 4.52 FIP	34	SW	4.52	13.5%	9.6%	2.4%	.347	3.84	14.0%	6.5%	79	-0.68	3.31	119	47
Marco Antonio Duarte R 2019 · 5.03 FIP	32	SW	5.03	12.2%	9.1%	3.3%	.420	—	—	—	—	—	4.07	203	46
Jean Machi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	34	SU	4.36	18.3%	6.6%	3.6%	.282	4.12	18.6%	12.0%	67	-0.24	2.16	306	46
Francisco Del Rosario R 2017 · 4.15 FIP	36	SU	4.15	16.4%	10.0%	2.1%	.267	6.35	11.9%	-0.6%	77	+2.20	3.93	194	46
Austin Adams R 2019 · 5.80 FIP	32	SU	5.80	20.8%	10.6%	5.7%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	162	46
Juan Omar Espinoza R 2016 · 4.84 FIP	32	SP-	4.84	8.4%	9.2%	2.4%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.81	104	45

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,179 pitcher careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.7	109	19.9%	11.1%	1.18	4.86
Jeff Juden ('99)	2.7	107	18.8%	10.5%	1.23	4.81
Robert Person ('03)	4.5	128	19.8%	11.2%	1.29	4.64
Alan Benes ('03)	2.5	99	18.6%	10.2%	1.07	4.59
Felix Doubront ('15)	2.6	103	19.5%	9.7%	1.10	4.89
Micah Owings ('12)	2.4	97	16.4%	9.8%	1.19	4.86
Felipe Paulino ('14)	2.0	101	20.7%	9.5%	1.14	5.22