Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 1 | 67 | 270 | 80 | 14 | 9 | 1% | 1.0 | 30.2% | 4.0% | 26.2% | 3.8% | 3.48 | 3.12 | +1.2 |
| 2015 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 68 | 1 | 67 | 270 | 80 | 14 | 9 | 1% | 1.0 | 29.6% | 5.2% | 24.4% | 3.3% | 3.48 | 3.09 | +1.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 20% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 1.6% | 20.3% | 4.7% | 5.17 | 4.02 | +0.1 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 4 levels | 15 | 3 | 16 | 64 | 14 | 1 | 3 | 20% | 1.0 | 21.9% | 1.6% | 20.3% | 4.7% | 5.17 | 3.99 | +0.1 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 2 | 40 | 172 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 5% | 1.0 | 19.5% | 1.9% | 17.6% | 5.9% | 4.72 | 4.94 | -0.2 |
| 2018 | 27 | MIX | 3 levels | 42 | 2 | 40 | 172 | 37 | 3 | 9 | 5% | 1.0 | 21.5% | 1.7% | 19.8% | 5.2% | 4.72 | 4.40 | +0.1 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64 | 0 | 62 | 247 | 66 | 12 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 4.9% | 21.9% | 6.4% | 3.61 | 4.99 | -0.3 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64 | 0 | 62 | 247 | 66 | 12 | 15 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.7% | 4.9% | 21.9% | 6.1% | 3.61 | 4.69 | -0.1 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 14 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 8.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.48 | +0.5 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Miami Marlins | 14 | 0 | 15 | 60 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 31.7% | 8.3% | 23.3% | 0.0% | 0.60 | 1.57 | +0.5 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 58 | 237 | 60 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 5.5% | 19.8% | 3.2% | 4.21 | 3.40 | +0.8 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Houston Astros | 62 | 0 | 58 | 237 | 60 | 13 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 25.3% | 5.5% | 19.8% | 3.4% | 4.21 | 3.50 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 250 | 60 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 23.5% | 5.3% | 18.2% | 2.4% | 3.05 | 3.12 | +1.1 |
| 2022 | 31 | MIX | 2 levels | 62 | 0 | 62 | 250 | 60 | 13 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 24.0% | 5.2% | 18.8% | 2.4% | 3.05 | 3.05 | +1.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 79 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.0% | 5.0% | 23.0% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 2.92 | +1.4 |
| 2023 | 32 | MLB | Toronto Blue Jays | 73 | 0 | 66 | 282 | 79 | 14 | 8 | 0% | 0.9 | 28.0% | 5.0% | 23.0% | 2.8% | 4.09 | 2.92 | +1.4 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 51 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 32.0% | 5.9% | 26.1% | 4.1% | 3.76 | 3.41 | +0.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 41 | 0 | 41 | 160 | 51 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 31.9% | 6.2% | 25.6% | 3.8% | 3.76 | 3.25 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 2 | 24 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 2 | 8% | 0.9 | 27.8% | 12.2% | 15.6% | 2.2% | 3.42 | 3.52 | +0.3 |
| 2025 | 34 | MIX | 4 levels | 25 | 2 | 24 | 102 | 32 | 12 | 2 | 8% | 0.9 | 31.4% | 11.8% | 19.6% | 2.0% | 3.42 | 3.02 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | AAA | Buffalo Bisons | 8 | 2 | 7 | 35 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 25% | 0.8 | — | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 42 | 12 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.74 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 35 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 19 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 29.4% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.74 | +0.1 |
| 2026 TOT | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 41 | 179 | 49 | 15 | 5 | — | — | 27.6% | 8.4% | 19.2% | 3.0% | 4.93 | 3.13 | +0.7 |
| 2026 FULL | 35 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 15 | 65 | 19 | 5 | 2 | — | — | 29.4% | 8.4% | 21.1% | 3.1% | 3.78 | 3.36 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 9.0% | 19.4% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 43 | 0 | 45 | 190 | 54 | 17 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 28.4% | 9.0% | 19.4% | 3.5% | 3.98 | 4.11 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 485 | 1 | 470 | 1931 | 520 | 112 | 69 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 5.8% | 21.1% | 3.5% | 3.69 | 3.51 | +10.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 207 | 0 | 200 | 823 | 221 | 48 | 29 | 0% | 1.0 | 26.9% | 5.8% | 21.1% | 3.5% | 3.69 | 3.51 | +4.4 | ||
| Career | — | 474 | 10 | 457 | 1879 | 498 | 97 | 71 | 2% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 21.4% | 3.8% | 3.82 | 3.58 | +9.7 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 207 | 4 | 200 | 822 | 218 | 42 | 31 | 2% | 1.0 | 26.5% | 5.2% | 21.4% | 3.8% | 3.82 | 3.58 | +4.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Yimi García (OGILVIE) | — | — | 3.74 | 29.4% | 8.4% | 3.1% | — | 4.11 | 28.4% | 19.4% | 45 | +0.37 | — | — | — |
| Santiago Casilla R 2026 · 3.51 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.51 | 25.4% | 8.6% | 2.7% | .290 | 3.93 | 22.4% | 12.7% | 161 | +0.42 | 3.51 | 219 | 76 |
| Jumbo Diaz R 2026 · 2.96 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.96 | 25.0% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .290 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.82 | 284 | 74 |
| Daniel Bard R 2026 · 2.70 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.70 | 25.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | .290 | 3.50 | 25.3% | 12.0% | 175 | +0.80 | 2.48 | 200 | 73 |
| Joakim Soria R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 28.4% | 6.8% | 3.4% | .246 | 3.44 | 25.1% | 17.7% | 60 | +0.01 | 2.01 | 380 | 72 |
| Joaquín Benoit R 2029 · 3.73 FIP | 38 | SU | 3.73 | 24.8% | 8.7% | 3.0% | .179 | 4.04 | 23.5% | 12.9% | 98 | +0.31 | 3.72 | 164 | 71 |
| Brandon Morrow R 2025 · 2.77 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.77 | 25.4% | 7.4% | 1.6% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.68 | 186 | 69 |
| Fernando Rodney R 2029 · 4.26 FIP | 38 | SU | 4.26 | 20.9% | 9.4% | 3.2% | .272 | 3.34 | 26.2% | 15.2% | 185 | -0.92 | 2.67 | 295 | 65 |
| Matt Bush R 2027 · 3.95 FIP | 36 | SU | 3.95 | 30.3% | 6.6% | 4.7% | .224 | 3.83 | 26.6% | 17.3% | 36 | -0.12 | 2.86 | 249 | 64 |
| Josh Lueke R 2025 · 4.79 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.79 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 4.8% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.50 | 107 | 64 |
| Yoshihisa Hirano R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.55 | 26.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .303 | 5.07 | 17.5% | 4.8% | 12 | +1.52 | 3.32 | 132 | 63 |
| Tony Barnette R 2025 · 2.63 FIP | 34 | SU | 2.63 | 25.0% | 4.8% | 1.9% | .239 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 144 | 63 |
| Tony Pena Jr. R 2026 · 2.91 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.91 | 21.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | .249 | 3.54 | 10.9% | 6.6% | 22 | +0.63 | 2.79 | 128 | 63 |
| Fernando Cruz R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 36.0% | 12.0% | 2.3% | .283 | 2.82 | 29.9% | 17.3% | 40 | -0.04 | 2.52 | 356 | 62 |
| Carlos Torres R 2026 · 2.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.78 | 22.3% | 7.3% | 1.2% | .248 | 4.25 | 17.8% | 8.8% | 62 | +1.47 | 2.78 | 326 | 62 |
| Luis Ayala R 2028 · 3.02 FIP | 37 | SU | 3.02 | 19.7% | 5.0% | 1.7% | .270 | 3.22 | 12.1% | 5.9% | 57 | +0.20 | 2.99 | 119 | 62 |
| Adam Ottavino R 2026 · 3.43 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.43 | 25.7% | 12.0% | 1.8% | .299 | 3.15 | 27.7% | 19.7% | 183 | -0.28 | 1.99 | 488 | 61 |
| Blake Parker R 2026 · 2.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 2.86 | 36.2% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .286 | 4.53 | 22.3% | 13.0% | 71 | +1.67 | 2.61 | 339 | 61 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 34 | SU | 4.21 | 21.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | .244 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 212 | 61 |
| John Axford R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.78 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 2.7% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.10 | 197 | 60 |
| Ryan Madson R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 35 | SU | 3.86 | 18.1% | 6.3% | 2.7% | .284 | 2.47 | 27.2% | 22.6% | 112 | -1.39 | 1.42 | 240 | 60 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 40 | 28.9% | 8.7% | 1.27 | 3.89 |
| Colin Poche ('24) | 4 | 52 | 27.0% | 9.2% | 1.34 | 3.63 |
| Zach McAllister ('18) | 4 | 57 | 24.8% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 3.63 |
| Blake Parker ('21) | 4 | 60 | 26.6% | 7.3% | 1.40 | 3.36 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| David Hernandez ('19) | 5 | 54 | 25.0% | 7.9% | 1.14 | 4.10 |
| Diego Castillo ('22) | 5 | 52 | 28.1% | 8.9% | 1.07 | 3.12 |