Humberto Castellanos
P
Reno Aces
Age 28
RHP
5'11" / 222 lbs
AAA
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 72 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 137128vR 119
ERA5.09
FIP5.24
K%16.2%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%6.0%
ROS IP72
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 72 IP
Grades · Arsenal · Contract
CT (27%)
SI (32%)
CU (15%)
FB (46%)
CH (13%)
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 11 | 50 | 222 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 85% | 3.9 | 9.8% | 6.2% | 3.6% | 0.0% | 4.29 | 3.06 | — |
| 2016 | 18 | ROK | DSL Astros Orange | 13 | 11 | 50 | 222 | 32 | 11 | 0 | 85% | 3.9 | 14.4% | 5.0% | 9.5% | 0.0% | 4.29 | 2.48 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 11 | 3 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 27% | 3.8 | 14.6% | 6.4% | 8.2% | 1.6% | 2.55 | 3.54 | — |
| 2017 | 19 | ROK | Greeneville Astros | 11 | 3 | 42 | 177 | 38 | 9 | 2 | 27% | 3.8 | 21.5% | 5.1% | 16.4% | 1.1% | 2.55 | 2.56 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 21 | 0 | 43 | 185 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 19.2% | 7.0% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 2.09 | 2.37 | — |
| 2018 | 20 | A | Quad Cities River Bandits | 21 | 0 | 43 | 185 | 48 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 2.0 | 25.9% | 5.9% | 20.0% | 0.0% | 2.09 | 1.63 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 75 | 306 | 83 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 2.2 | 20.8% | 5.3% | 15.5% | 2.6% | 2.89 | 3.46 | — |
| 2019 | 21 | MIX | 3 levels | 34 | 0 | 75 | 306 | 83 | 14 | 6 | 0% | 2.2 | 27.1% | 4.6% | 22.5% | 2.0% | 2.89 | 2.48 | — |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 3.7% | 6.75 | 4.39 | +0.0 |
| 2020 | 22 | MLB | Houston Astros | 8 | 0 | 11 | 51 | 12 | 5 | 2 | 0% | 1.3 | 23.5% | 9.8% | 13.7% | 3.9% | 6.75 | 4.69 | -0.0 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 103 | 443 | 88 | 28 | 21 | 73% | 4.0 | 18.3% | 6.5% | 11.8% | 5.3% | 4.96 | 5.29 | +0.1 |
| 2021 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 19 | 103 | 443 | 88 | 28 | 21 | 73% | 4.0 | 19.9% | 6.3% | 13.5% | 4.7% | 4.96 | 4.85 | +0.7 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 9 | 44 | 194 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 82% | 4.0 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 3.5% | 5.68 | 4.39 | +0.1 |
| 2022 | 24 | MLB | Arizona Diamondbacks | 11 | 9 | 44 | 194 | 32 | 12 | 7 | 82% | 4.0 | 16.5% | 6.2% | 10.3% | 3.6% | 5.68 | 4.52 | +0.0 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 114 | 476 | 109 | 43 | 21 | 71% | 4.1 | 21.0% | 9.6% | 11.4% | 4.3% | 3.94 | 4.91 | +0.7 |
| 2024 | 26 | MIX | 2 levels | 28 | 20 | 114 | 476 | 109 | 43 | 21 | 71% | 4.1 | 22.9% | 9.0% | 13.9% | 4.4% | 3.94 | 4.71 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 69 | 0 | 72 | 304 | 49 | 31 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 6.0% | 3.3% | 5.09 | 5.24 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 45 | 30 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.40 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 62 | 0 | 65 | 274 | 41 | 29 | 10 | 0% | 1.0 | 14.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 5.60 | -0.7 |
| 2027 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 0 | 25 | 106 | 16 | 11 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 5.27 | 5.40 | -0.2 |
| 2028 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 34 | 0 | 36 | 152 | 23 | 16 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 14.9% | 10.7% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.47 | 5.60 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 98 | 16 | 172 | 747 | 119 | 63 | 25 | 16% | 1.8 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 4.69 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 114 | 19 | 200 | 868 | 138 | 73 | 29 | 16% | 1.8 | 15.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 3.4% | 5.42 | 4.69 | +1.7 | ||
| Career | — | 152 | 62 | 483 | 2054 | 372 | 145 | 64 | 41% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.17 | +7.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 63 | 26 | 200 | 851 | 154 | 60 | 26 | 41% | 3.2 | 18.1% | 7.1% | 11.0% | 3.1% | 3.97 | 4.17 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Humberto Castellanos (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.24 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 3.3% | — | 5.50 | 15.2% | 4.7% | 134 | +0.26 | — | — | — |
| Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP | 27 | SW | 4.60 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 3.1% | .304 | 4.88 | 15.8% | 3.2% | 11 | +0.28 | 3.25 | 221 | 80 |
| Christian Bergman R 2026 · 4.43 FIP | 28 | SW | 4.43 | 15.3% | 5.6% | 3.5% | .309 | 4.70 | 15.0% | 9.1% | 322 | +0.27 | 3.80 | 467 | 79 |
| Justin Masterson R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.06 | 18.2% | 10.5% | 2.1% | .307 | 3.76 | 17.3% | 6.4% | 196 | -0.30 | 3.51 | 269 | 79 |
| Sugar Ray Marimon R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.08 | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.6% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 107 | 76 |
| Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 5.19 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.19 | 13.5% | 11.0% | 3.4% | .339 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.79 | 157 | 76 |
| Josh Roeder R 2024 · 4.75 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.75 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.75 | 175 | 75 |
| Ramon Delgado R 2027 · 4.73 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.73 | 13.8% | 5.9% | 3.7% | .332 | 4.45 | 11.2% | 7.2% | 74 | -0.28 | 4.45 | 135 | 72 |
| Jose Pina R 2027 · 5.09 FIP | 29 | SW | 5.09 | 16.9% | 9.2% | 4.1% | .231 | 3.69 | 13.6% | 6.9% | 246 | -1.40 | 3.68 | 424 | 72 |
| Mitch Neunborn R 2026 · 6.03 FIP | 28 | SW | 6.03 | 17.0% | 10.1% | 5.6% | .289 | 4.41 | 8.3% | -7.5% | 10 | -1.62 | 3.92 | 233 | 72 |
| Tim Melville R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.09 | 15.6% | 9.5% | 3.8% | .308 | 5.31 | 18.2% | 9.0% | 130 | +0.22 | 3.60 | 471 | 72 |
| Mike Connolly R 2024 · 5.26 FIP | 26 | SW | 5.26 | 13.2% | 9.4% | 3.8% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.24 | 328 | 72 |
| Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 28 | SU | 4.56 | 15.3% | 9.6% | 2.8% | .278 | 4.89 | 12.2% | 4.4% | 133 | +0.33 | 4.01 | 411 | 71 |
| Rodolfo Aguirre R 2028 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .288 | 4.99 | 11.4% | 1.3% | 125 | +0.71 | 3.49 | 212 | 71 |
| Alfonso Sanchez R 2026 · 5.49 FIP | 28 | SW | 5.49 | 15.9% | 7.4% | 5.1% | .244 | 5.53 | 11.2% | 2.3% | 115 | +0.04 | 4.54 | 224 | 71 |
| Kanekoa Texeira R 2027 · 4.12 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.12 | 14.5% | 11.2% | 1.5% | .280 | 4.05 | 10.2% | -0.2% | 63 | -0.07 | 4.05 | 165 | 71 |
| Chris Leroux R 2029 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 71 |
| Chris Jensen R 2025 · 5.29 FIP | 27 | SW | 5.29 | 12.0% | 10.6% | 3.4% | .347 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.73 | 488 | 70 |
| Ryan Weber R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 16.3% | 6.6% | 2.7% | .317 | 4.38 | 18.4% | 14.1% | 186 | +0.32 | 2.91 | 727 | 70 |
| Nolan Sanburn R 2024 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.25 | 15.0% | 10.4% | 2.0% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.91 | 169 | 70 |
| Bud Norris R 2028 · 4.90 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.90 | 18.8% | 8.2% | 4.3% | .327 | 3.85 | 24.2% | 15.5% | 233 | -1.05 | 3.52 | 316 | 70 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 69 | 15.6% | 10.4% | 1.36 | 5.27 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Jorge De La Rosa ('18) | 4 | 98 | 19.5% | 10.3% | 1.22 | 4.52 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |