Humberto Castellanos

Humberto Castellanos P Reno Aces

+0.0 WAR

Age 28 RHP 5'11" / 222 lbs AAA peak 0.3 · 2026

ERA4.73

FIP4.73

xFIP5.16

SIERA4.87

K%22.2%

BB%9.4%

K-BB%12.8%

IP103

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.3peak

2026

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

CT (27%)

SI (32%)

CU (15%)

FB (46%)

CH (13%)

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2016	18	ROK	DSL Astros Orange	13	11	50	222	32	11	0	9.8%	6.2%	0.0%	4.29	3.06	+1.1
2017	19	ROK	Greeneville Astros	11	3	42	177	38	9	2	14.6%	6.4%	1.6%	2.55	3.54	+0.7
2018	20	A	Quad Cities River Bandits	21	0	43	185	48	11	0	19.2%	7.0%	0.0%	2.09	2.37	+1.3
2019	21	AAA	Round Rock Express	34	0	75	306	83	14	6	20.8%	5.3%	2.6%	2.89	3.41	+1.4
2020	22	MLB	Houston Astros	8	0	11	51	12	5	2	23.5%	9.8%	4.0%	6.75	4.54	+0.0
2021	23	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	26	19	103	443	88	28	21	18.3%	6.5%	5.1%	4.96	5.17	+0.2
2022	24	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	11	9	44	194	32	12	7	16.5%	6.2%	3.9%	5.68	4.63	+0.2
2024	26	MLB	Arizona Diamondbacks	28	20	114	476	109	43	21	21.0%	9.6%	4.7%	3.94	5.15	+0.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	28	MLB	ARI	19	19	103	435	69	43	15	16.0%	9.9%	3.5%	5.00	5.28	+0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	29	MLB	ARI	18	18	101	425	66	42	15	15.5%	10.0%	3.5%	5.21	5.35	-0.1
2028	30	MLB	ARI	18	18	98	413	62	41	15	14.9%	10.1%	3.6%	5.35	5.44	-0.2
2029	31	MLB	ARI	17	17	94	398	57	41	14	14.3%	10.2%	3.6%	5.47	5.55	-0.3
2030	32	MLB	ARI	16	16	90	382	52	39	14	13.7%	10.3%	3.7%	5.59	5.66	-0.5
2031	33	MLB	ARI	16	16	86	365	48	38	14	13.1%	10.5%	3.8%	5.71	5.79	-0.6
2032	34	MLB	ARI	15	15	82	347	43	37	14	12.3%	10.7%	3.9%	5.84	5.93	-0.7
2033	35	MLB	ARI	14	14	77	327	44	33	13	13.6%	10.1%	4.0%	5.82	5.81	-0.6
2034	36	MLB	ARI	13	13	72	306	39	32	13	12.8%	10.4%	4.1%	5.91	5.98	-0.8
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			152	62	483	2054	372	145	65	18.1%	7.1%	3.2%	3.97	4.21	+5.9
/ 200 IP	—			63	26	200	851	154	60	27	18.1%	7.1%	3.2%	3.97	4.21	+2.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Humberto Castellanos (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.28	16.0%	9.9%	3.5%	—	5.44	14.9%	4.9%	293	+0.16	—	—	—
Vance Worley R 2026 · 4.65 FIP	28	SP-	4.65	15.3%	9.6%	3.0%	.278	4.81	12.2%	4.4%	133	+0.16	3.81	411	83
Sam LeCure R 2029 · 4.41 FIP	31	SP-	4.41	15.6%	8.8%	2.8%	.283	4.16	16.6%	10.1%	91	-0.25	4.16	171	83
Lisalverto Bonilla R 2025 · 4.60 FIP	27	SP-	4.60	18.2%	10.5%	3.1%	.304	4.72	15.8%	3.2%	11	+0.12	3.22	221	82
Kris Medlen R 2027 · 4.76 FIP	29	SP-	4.76	15.4%	6.4%	3.9%	.261	5.17	17.1%	8.6%	173	+0.41	4.58	261	82
Dylan Axelrod R 2028 · 4.77 FIP	30	SP-	4.77	14.1%	6.6%	3.7%	.304	4.31	13.7%	7.4%	133	-0.46	4.31	251	82
Hector Noesí R 2026 · 4.38 FIP	28	SP-	4.38	17.6%	8.1%	3.2%	.261	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	250	81
Matt Cain R 2028 · 4.87 FIP	30	SP-	4.87	17.1%	6.8%	4.3%	.296	5.04	15.2%	7.6%	214	+0.17	4.87	294	80
Jose Pina R 2027 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	16.9%	9.2%	3.7%	.231	3.67	13.6%	6.9%	246	-1.19	3.65	424	79
Sugar Ray Marimon R 2024 · 4.11 FIP	26	SP-	4.11	12.4%	9.1%	1.7%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.11	107	78
Matt Harvey R 2026 · 5.94 FIP	28	SP-	5.94	15.5%	10.2%	5.2%	.298	4.62	19.0%	12.0%	249	-1.32	2.90	806	78
Yohan Pino R 2029 · 4.10 FIP	31	SP-	4.10	17.8%	5.8%	3.2%	.312	5.35	15.2%	11.6%	35	+1.25	4.10	133	77
Luke Irvine R 2025 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	77
Tyler Wilson R 2025 · 4.49 FIP	27	SP-	4.49	12.1%	7.0%	2.8%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	3.61	377	77
Warwick Saupold R 2026 · 4.79 FIP	28	SP-	4.79	13.7%	7.6%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.45	389	77
Odrisamer Despaigne R 2026 · 4.34 FIP	28	SP-	4.34	12.6%	5.3%	3.0%	.289	3.82	15.5%	7.0%	329	-0.52	3.14	593	77
Ryan Weber R 2026 · 4.10 FIP	28	SP-	4.10	16.3%	6.6%	2.8%	.317	4.40	18.4%	14.1%	186	+0.30	2.88	727	77
Scott McGregor R 2026 · 4.41 FIP	28	SP-	4.41	11.8%	7.6%	2.4%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	107	77
Dennis O'Grady R 2024 · 4.98 FIP	26	SP-	4.98	13.5%	11.0%	3.0%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	157	76
Felipe Paulino R 2029 · 4.52 FIP	31	SP-	4.52	15.8%	11.8%	2.3%	.312	4.86	15.0%	4.8%	26	+0.34	4.52	150	76
Iván Nova R 2026 · 4.30 FIP	28	SP-	4.30	15.3%	8.0%	2.7%	.283	4.33	17.3%	13.1%	510	+0.03	4.13	810	76

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.