Julio Teheran
PosP
B/TR/R
Born1991-01-27
Age (2026)35
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 201 | 843 | 171 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.20 | +2.8 |
| 2015 | 24 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 201 | 843 | 171 | 70 | 27 | 100% | 6.1 | 20.3% | 8.3% | 12.0% | 3.2% | 4.04 | 4.19 | +2.8 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 193 | 776 | 172 | 39 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.0% | 5.1% | 16.9% | 2.9% | 3.17 | 3.48 | +4.3 |
| 2016 | 25 | MIX | 2 levels | 31 | 31 | 193 | 776 | 172 | 39 | 22 | 100% | 6.2 | 22.2% | 5.0% | 17.1% | 2.8% | 3.17 | 3.41 | +4.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 32 | 188 | 812 | 151 | 69 | 31 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 4.70 | +1.5 |
| 2017 | 26 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 32 | 32 | 188 | 812 | 151 | 69 | 31 | 100% | 5.9 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 10.1% | 3.8% | 4.49 | 4.74 | +1.5 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 31 | 176 | 724 | 162 | 81 | 26 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 3.94 | 4.60 | +1.6 |
| 2018 | 27 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 31 | 31 | 176 | 724 | 162 | 81 | 26 | 100% | 5.7 | 22.4% | 11.2% | 11.2% | 3.6% | 3.94 | 4.56 | +1.7 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 175 | 754 | 162 | 80 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 4.23 | +2.4 |
| 2019 | 28 | MLB | Atlanta Braves | 33 | 33 | 175 | 754 | 162 | 80 | 22 | 100% | 5.3 | 21.5% | 10.6% | 10.9% | 2.9% | 3.81 | 4.26 | +2.3 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 10 | 9 | 31 | 149 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 90% | 3.1 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 8.3% | 10.05 | 7.91 | -1.2 |
| 2020 | 29 | MLB | Los Angeles Angels | 10 | 9 | 31 | 149 | 20 | 16 | 12 | 90% | 3.1 | 13.4% | 10.7% | 2.7% | 8.1% | 10.05 | 8.33 | -1.4 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 1.80 | 6.48 | -0.1 |
| 2021 | 30 | MLB | Detroit Tigers | 1 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 100% | 5.0 | 15.0% | 15.0% | 0.0% | 5.0% | 1.80 | 6.30 | -0.1 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 129 | 549 | 112 | 35 | 22 | 89% | 4.8 | 18.9% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 4.6% | 4.74 | 4.86 | +0.8 |
| 2023 | 32 | MIX | 3 levels | 27 | 24 | 129 | 549 | 112 | 35 | 22 | 89% | 4.8 | 20.4% | 6.4% | 14.0% | 4.0% | 4.74 | 4.39 | +1.5 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 52 | 257 | 52 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 4.0 | 17.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 5.1% | 9.17 | 5.58 | -0.6 |
| 2024 | 33 | MIX | 2 levels | 13 | 13 | 52 | 257 | 52 | 24 | 12 | 100% | 4.0 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 10.9% | 4.7% | 9.17 | 5.48 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 35 | MLB | NYM | 29 | 29 | 175 | 739 | 140 | 63 | 27 | 100% | 6.0 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 3.6% | 4.65 | 4.96 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 117 | 60 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.05 | 5.32 | +0.1 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 23 | 23 | 135 | 571 | 96 | 56 | 25 | 100% | 5.9 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.46 | 5.73 | -0.5 |
| 2027 | 36 | MLB | NYM | 26 | 26 | 155 | 654 | 117 | 60 | 26 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 4.0% | 5.04 | 5.31 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 37 | MLB | NYM | 22 | 22 | 135 | 570 | 96 | 56 | 25 | 100% | 6.1 | 16.8% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.45 | 5.72 | -0.5 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 233 | 229 | 1328 | 5589 | 1102 | 489 | 206 | 98% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.57 | +12.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 842 | 166 | 74 | 31 | 98% | 5.7 | 19.7% | 8.7% | 11.0% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 211 | 207 | 1150 | 4884 | 989 | 421 | 180 | 98% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +12.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 37 | 36 | 200 | 850 | 172 | 73 | 31 | 98% | 5.4 | 20.3% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 3.7% | 4.38 | 4.50 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Julio Teheran (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.96 | 18.9% | 8.6% | 3.6% | — | 5.51 | 17.4% | 7.9% | 290 | +0.55 | — | — | — |
| Aaron Harang R 2028 · 4.54 FIP | 37 | SP | 4.54 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 3.4% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.54 | 172 | 85 |
| Ricky Nolasco R 2025 · 4.98 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.98 | 18.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | .307 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.21 | 425 | 81 |
| Tomoyuki Sugano R 2026 · 4.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.91 | 15.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | .279 | 5.23 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 84 | +0.32 | 4.91 | 241 | 78 |
| Colby Lewis R 2026 · 3.91 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.91 | 16.5% | 4.6% | 2.9% | .283 | 4.70 | 15.5% | 9.6% | 116 | +0.79 | 3.91 | 321 | 76 |
| Dan Haren R 2025 · 4.40 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.40 | 17.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | .251 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.40 | 187 | 76 |
| Aníbal Sánchez R 2026 · 4.06 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.06 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 3.1% | .258 | 5.04 | 17.2% | 7.8% | 135 | +0.98 | 3.49 | 869 | 74 |
| Jeremy Guthrie R 2027 · 5.42 FIP | 36 | SP- | 5.42 | 12.7% | 6.5% | 4.7% | .309 | 5.00 | 11.6% | 3.0% | 87 | -0.42 | 5.00 | 235 | 73 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez R 2024 · 5.02 FIP | 33 | SP- | 5.02 | 21.5% | 9.0% | 4.7% | .325 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.67 | 469 | 73 |
| Marco Estrada R 2026 · 5.26 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.26 | 16.4% | 8.0% | 4.6% | .283 | 6.98 | 10.4% | 2.9% | 24 | +1.72 | 4.04 | 710 | 73 |
| Jarrett Grube R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.16 | 15.8% | 8.1% | 2.5% | .296 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.49 | 393 | 72 |
| Shaun Marcum R 2024 · 3.94 FIP | 33 | SP | 3.94 | 17.8% | 6.0% | 2.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.94 | 123 | 72 |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.31 | 17.5% | 8.1% | 3.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.19 | 485 | 72 |
| Matt Garza R 2024 · 4.74 FIP | 33 | SP | 4.74 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 3.5% | .283 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.12 | 365 | 71 |
| James Shields R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.07 | 20.1% | 9.3% | 4.5% | .271 | 4.81 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 205 | -0.26 | 4.36 | 720 | 70 |
| Hisashi Iwakuma R 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.20 | 17.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | .307 | 6.39 | 12.5% | 3.1% | 31 | +2.19 | 3.79 | 360 | 70 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2026 · 5.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 5.22 | 20.8% | 8.8% | 5.0% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.66 | 348 | 70 |
| Adam Wainwright R 2026 · 3.98 FIP | 35 | SP | 3.98 | 17.6% | 7.5% | 2.6% | .319 | 3.96 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 278 | -0.02 | 2.03 | 1,127 | 68 |
| Frankie De La Cruz R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 35 | SP- | 4.34 | 16.2% | 8.0% | 2.9% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.70 | 240 | 67 |
| Scott Feldman R 2025 · 4.64 FIP | 34 | SP | 4.64 | 19.7% | 7.0% | 4.2% | .292 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.92 | 297 | 66 |
| Roberto Hernandez R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 35 | SP | 4.22 | 13.8% | 7.0% | 2.5% | .299 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.22 | 171 | 66 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 155 | 18.0% | 9.1% | 1.54 | 5.02 |
| James Shields ('18) | 4 | 176 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 1.71 | 4.81 |
| Ubaldo Jiménez ('17) | 3 | 156 | 20.8% | 9.5% | 1.32 | 5.33 |
| Dan Straily ('19) | 4 | 136 | 20.0% | 8.9% | 1.72 | 4.54 |
| Marco Estrada ('19) | 5 | 142 | 19.6% | 8.3% | 1.44 | 4.33 |
| Matt Garza ('17) | 3 | 122 | 15.5% | 8.5% | 1.26 | 5.10 |
| Jason Vargas ('19) | 4 | 116 | 18.5% | 8.2% | 1.38 | 4.57 |