Julio Teheran

PosP

B/TR/R

Born1991-01-27

Age (2026)35

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2015	24	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	33	201	843	171	70	27	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.5%	4.04	4.34	+1.3
2015	24	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	33	201	843	171	70	27	100%	6.1	20.3%	8.3%	12.0%	3.2%	4.04	4.19	+1.7
2016	25	MIX MLE	2 levels	31	31	193	776	172	39	22	100%	6.2	22.0%	5.1%	16.9%	3.1%	3.17	3.61	+3.0
2016	25	MIX RAW	2 levels	31	31	193	776	172	39	22	100%	6.2	22.2%	5.0%	17.1%	2.8%	3.17	3.41	+3.6
2017	26	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	32	32	188	812	151	69	31	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.8%	4.49	4.70	+0.4
2017	26	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	32	32	188	812	151	69	31	100%	5.9	18.6%	8.5%	10.1%	3.8%	4.49	4.74	+0.4
2018	27	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	31	31	176	724	162	81	26	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.6%	3.94	4.60	+0.6
2018	27	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	31	31	176	724	162	81	26	100%	5.7	22.4%	11.2%	11.2%	3.6%	3.94	4.56	+0.7
2019	28	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	33	33	175	754	162	80	22	100%	5.3	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	2.9%	3.81	4.23	+1.4
2019	28	MLB RAW	Atlanta Braves	33	33	175	754	162	80	22	100%	5.3	21.5%	10.6%	10.9%	2.9%	3.81	4.26	+1.3
2020	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Angels	10	9	31	149	20	16	12	90%	3.1	13.4%	10.7%	2.7%	7.9%	10.05	7.66	-1.0
2020	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Angels	10	9	31	149	20	16	12	90%	3.1	13.4%	10.7%	2.7%	8.1%	10.05	8.33	-1.2
2021	30	MLB MLE	Detroit Tigers	1	1	5	20	3	3	1	100%	5.0	15.0%	15.0%	0.0%	5.0%	1.80	6.48	-0.1
2021	30	MLB RAW	Detroit Tigers	1	1	5	20	3	3	1	100%	5.0	15.0%	15.0%	0.0%	5.0%	1.80	6.30	-0.1
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	129	549	112	35	22	89%	4.8	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	4.1%	4.74	4.59	+0.5
2023	32	MIX MLE	3 levels	27	24	129	549	112	35	22	89%	4.8	18.3%	6.1%	12.2%	4.1%	4.74	4.59	+0.5
2023	32	MIX RAW	3 levels	27	24	129	549	112	35	22	89%	4.8	20.4%	6.4%	14.0%	4.0%	4.74	4.39	+0.8
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	52	257	52	24	12	100%	4.0	16.9%	8.2%	8.7%	5.0%	9.17	5.48	-0.3
2024	33	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	13	52	257	52	24	12	100%	4.0	16.9%	8.2%	8.7%	5.0%	9.17	5.48	-0.3
2024	33	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	13	52	257	52	24	12	100%	4.0	20.2%	9.3%	10.9%	4.7%	9.17	5.48	-0.3
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			185	181	1038	4364	889	373	155	98%	5.6	20.4%	8.5%	11.8%	3.6%	4.14	4.41	+6.0
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	35	MLB	NYM	2	2	15	63	12	5	2	100%	7.5	18.5%	8.0%	10.5%	3.6%	4.61	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	36	MLB MLE	NYM	26	26	155	654	114	56	26	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	3.9%	5.00	5.25	-0.6
2028	37	MLB MLE	NYM	23	23	135	571	94	53	25	100%	5.9	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	4.3%	5.39	5.65	-1.1
2027	36	MLB CTX	NYM	26	26	155	654	114	56	26	100%	6.0	17.5%	8.6%	8.9%	3.9%	4.99	5.24	-0.6
2028	37	MLB CTX	NYM	22	22	135	570	93	53	25	100%	6.1	16.4%	9.3%	7.1%	4.3%	5.38	5.64	-1.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		233	229	1328	5589	1097	482	205	98%	5.7	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	3.7%	4.36	4.55	+5.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	842	165	73	31	98%	5.7	19.6%	8.6%	11.0%	3.7%	4.36	4.55	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		211	207	1150	4884	984	414	181	98%	5.4	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	3.7%	4.38	4.50	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		37	36	200	850	171	72	31	98%	5.4	20.1%	8.5%	11.7%	3.7%	4.38	4.50	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Teheran (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	18.5%	8.0%	3.6%	—	5.44	17.0%	8.0%	290	+0.56	—	—	—
Aaron Harang R 2015 · 4.47 FIP	37	SP	4.47	14.4%	6.4%	3.2%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.47	172	86
Colby Lewis R 2015 · 3.89 FIP	35	SP	3.89	16.5%	4.6%	2.9%	.283	4.67	15.5%	9.6%	116	+0.78	3.89	321	78
Dan Haren R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	34	SP	4.54	17.2%	4.7%	4.2%	.251	—	—	—	—	—	4.54	187	77
Ricky Nolasco R 2017 · 4.84 FIP	34	SP	4.84	18.2%	7.0%	4.4%	.307	—	—	—	—	—	3.22	425	76
Jeremy Guthrie R 2015 · 5.44 FIP	36	SP-	5.44	12.7%	6.5%	4.7%	.309	4.85	11.6%	3.0%	87	-0.59	4.85	235	74
Jarrett Grube R 2017 · 4.41 FIP	35	SP	4.41	15.8%	8.1%	3.0%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	3.75	393	73
Shaun Marcum R 2015 · 4.04 FIP	33	SP	4.04	17.8%	6.0%	3.1%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	4.04	123	73
Hisashi Iwakuma R 2016 · 4.15 FIP	35	SP	4.15	17.6%	5.1%	3.4%	.307	6.31	12.5%	3.1%	31	+2.16	3.74	360	71
Josh Lindblom R 2022 · 5.07 FIP	35	SP	5.07	20.8%	8.8%	4.8%	.270	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	348	70
Yoanner Negrin R 2019 · 3.87 FIP	35	SP	3.87	17.5%	8.1%	2.2%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.15	485	70
Roberto Hernandez R 2016 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP	4.38	13.8%	7.0%	2.8%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.38	171	68
Frankie De La Cruz R 2019 · 4.38 FIP	35	SP-	4.38	16.2%	8.0%	3.0%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.77	240	67
Daniel McCutchen R 2016 · 4.74 FIP	33	SP	4.74	10.8%	5.9%	3.3%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.30	287	67
Yasutomo Kubo R 2019 · 3.98 FIP	38	SP	3.98	20.4%	4.7%	3.6%	.327	—	—	—	—	—	3.98	152	67
Matt Garza R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	33	SP	4.57	15.7%	8.1%	3.2%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	365	66
Chien-Ming Wang R 2015 · 4.23 FIP	35	SP	4.23	7.6%	6.1%	1.8%	.354	4.53	13.0%	5.2%	53	+0.30	4.23	183	66
Walter Silva R 2015 · 4.15 FIP	38	SP	4.15	14.8%	7.4%	2.5%	.311	3.91	10.4%	3.7%	209	-0.24	3.67	428	66
Scott Feldman R 2017 · 4.58 FIP	34	SP	4.58	19.7%	7.0%	4.1%	.292	—	—	—	—	—	3.92	297	65
Adam Wainwright R 2017 · 4.08 FIP	35	SP	4.08	17.6%	7.5%	2.8%	.319	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	278	+0.00	2.03	1,127	65
Leo Medrano R 2016 · 4.34 FIP	33	SP	4.34	11.0%	7.3%	2.3%	.312	—	—	—	—	—	3.76	222	65

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.3	155	17.6%	8.6%	1.51	4.97
Dan Straily ('19)	2.7	136	20.0%	8.9%	1.72	4.54
Mike Foltynewicz ('21)	4.0	134	21.4%	7.7%	1.46	4.45
James Kaprielian ('23)	1.6	105	20.5%	9.6%	1.26	4.58
Homer Bailey ('19)	1.9	96	18.5%	7.8%	1.34	5.56
Kutter Crawford ('24)	2.0	130	23.9%	7.2%	1.45	4.47
Josiah Gray ('23)	1.9	126	22.6%	10.8%	1.88	4.64

Julio Teheran

Career Stats + Projections

Career Path Comps

Career Comps