Justin Turner

1B Chicago Cubs

Age 42 R/R 5'11" / 208 lbs MLB HR -8% Svc 18.000 · Ctrl thru 2027

Overview

MLBExt / FA-dealFA 2028

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR
2023	38	MLBBOS	626	.276/.348/.455	23	4	121	1.4
2024	39	MLBSEA	539	.259/.359/.383	11	0	113	0.8
2025	40	MLBCHC	191	.219/.294/.314	3	2	71	-0.5
2026	41	No MLB games played
2027PROJ	42	MLBCHC	143	.257/.342/.392	3	2	108	0.3

Last 3 seasons WAR 1.6 · Next 1 projected WAR 0.3Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2027Service18.000First FA2028

2027Ext / FA-deal$1M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2023-2025

xwOBA69

Avg EV40

Barrel%25

Speed10

Bat Spd10

CompsJeff Conine (age 41) · Cornelio Garcia (age 41) · Sharnol Adriana (age 42)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 111108vR 98

AVG/OBP/SLG.257 / .342 / .392

PA143

HR3

K%20

BB%10

BABIP305

ISO143

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

Tools · Splits · Contract

ToolsStatcast %ile · 2023-2025

CONTACT

xAVG

500.252

POWER

Barrel%

255.0

Avg EV

4088.4

Bat Spd

1066.3

SPEED

Sprint

1025.3

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 730 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

250

480

—

wRC+

111

◀◀L

wOBA

332

305

◀L

ISO

152

097

◀◀L

BABIP

300

281

◀L

18.0%

18.1%

—

BB%

9.6%

10.4%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status FA

MLB Debut 2009

Service 18.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2027

First FA Year 2028

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.2	$0.8M	-$0.3M
Totals		$1M		$0.8M	-$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2006	21	ROK	Billings Mustangs	—	263	231	78	16	3	6	23	38	7	12	2	338	414	511	925	173	381	14	9	407	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	200	238	200	438		222	10	5	206	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A	Dayton Dragons	—	516	466	145	25	4	10	39	72	9	12	8	311	375	446	822	135	350	14	8	367	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	323	280	81	14	1	8	33	54	1	2	1	289	366	432	798	143	326	17	10	348	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+	Sarasota Reds	—	151	136	43	8	1	0	12	19	3	3	1	316	384	390	774	74	368	13	8	353	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB	Baltimore Orioles	—	22	18	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	167	318	167	485		200	14	18	250	56	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.1
2009	24	AAA	Norfolk Tides	—	441	387	116	28	0	2	34	37	8	9	4	300	368	388	756	88	320	8	8	335	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB	New York Mets	—	18	17	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	59	111	118	229	59	71	17	6	110	-36	-3	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.2
2010	25	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	443	396	125	30	1	12	33	51	6	7	3	316	377	487	864	172	336	12	7	376	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	90	80	25	7	0	1	7	7	2	0	1	312	382	438	820	125	333	8	8	365	133	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB	New York Mets	—	487	435	113	30	0	4	39	59	10	7	2	260	335	356	691	97	292	12	8	314	103	+1	+1	-9	+2	+11	0.5
2011	26	AAA	Buffalo Bisons	—	44	40	12	3	2	0	2	6	2	0	0	300	364	475	839	175	353	14	5	370	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB	New York Mets	—	185	171	46	13	1	2	9	24	4	1	1	269	321	392	712	123	301	13	5	318	108	+2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.7
2012	27	INTL	Leones del Escogido	—	87	80	15	5	0	1	5	15	1	0	0	188	244	287	532	100	215	17	6	240	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB	New York Mets	—	214	200	56	13	1	2	11	34	1	0	1	280	321	385	706	105	327	16	5	313	102	+1	-0	+1	+1	+5	0.7
2013	28	AA	Binghamton Mets	—	17	15	6	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	400	471	533	1.004	133	462	12	6	448	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	322	288	98	21	1	7	28	58	4	6	1	340	406	493	899	153	404	18	9	398	160	+23	+1	-1	+1	+7	3.1
2015	30	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	439	385	113	26	1	16	36	71	13	5	2	294	373	491	864	197	321	16	8	379	145	+24	+0	+3	+2	+10	3.8
2016	31	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	622	556	153	34	3	27	48	107	10	4	1	275	344	493	836	218	293	17	8	363	135	+26	+0	+6	+2	+13	4.9
2017	32	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	543	457	147	32	0	21	59	56	19	7	1	322	421	530	950	208	326	10	11	414	166	+43	+1	+3	+2	+12	6.2
2018	33	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	426	365	114	31	1	14	47	54	12	2	1	312	408	518	926	205	334	13	11	408	164	+32	+0	-0	+2	+9	4.4
2019	34	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	549	479	139	24	0	27	51	88	14	2	0	290	375	509	884	219	304	16	9	387	149	+32	+0	+4	+2	+12	5.1
2020	35	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	175	150	46	9	1	4	18	26	6	1	0	307	402	460	862	153	347	15	10	385	153	+11	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.7
2021	36	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	612	533	148	22	0	27	61	98	12	3	0	278	365	471	836	193	292	16	10	368	138	+27	+1	+2	+2	+13	4.6
2022	37	MLB	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	532	468	130	36	0	13	50	89	6	3	0	278	355	438	793	160	313	17	9	349	126	+17	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2023	38	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	626	558	154	31	0	23	51	110	11	4	1	276	348	455	804	179	304	18	8	354	121	+16	+0	-5	-11	+14	1.4
2024	39	MLB	Seattle Mariners	—	539	460	119	24	0	11	59	95	13	0	2	259	359	383	742	124	299	18	11	335	113	+8	-1	-2	-10	+12	0.8
2025	40	MLB	Chicago Cubs	—	191	169	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	219	294	314	608	95	256	19	9	274	71	-7	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	6502	5709	1617	354	9	201	589	1012	136	47	13	283	364	454	818	171	311	16	9	362	131	+239	+4	+0	-2	+141	39.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	263	241	60	11	2	4	13	55	7	12	2	249	307	361	668	112	300	21	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	21	20	4	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	200	238	200	438		204	14	5	173	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	Dayton Dragons	—	516	478	127	20	4	8	27	98	9	12	8	266	317	374	692	109	312	19	5	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	Chattanooga Lookouts	—	323	290	76	13	1	7	23	66	1	2	1	262	318	386	705	124	297	20	7	303	91	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	A+ MLE	Sarasota Reds	—	151	139	36	7	1	0	9	27	3	3	1	259	318	324	642	65	319	18	6	283	78	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	MLB MLE	Baltimore Orioles	—	22	18	3	0	0	0	4	3	0	0	0	167	318	167	485		200	14	18	250	56	-1	+0	+0	+2	+0	0.1
2009	24	AAA MLE	Norfolk Tides	—	441	397	114	25	0	2	24	45	8	9	4	287	340	365	706	78	304	10	5	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	18	17	1	1	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	59	111	118	229	59	71	17	6	114	-36	-3	+0	-1	+2	+0	-0.2
2010	25	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	443	405	115	23	1	10	24	62	6	7	3	284	333	420	753	136	306	14	5	324	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	487	437	117	32	0	4	37	59	10	7	2	268	339	368	707	101	292	12	8	320	103	+1	+1	-9	+2	+11	0.5
2011	26	AAA MLE	Buffalo Bisons	—	44	41	11	3	2	0	1	7	2	0	0	268	318	439	757	171	324	16	2	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	185	171	48	14	1	2	9	24	4	1	1	281	332	409	741	129	301	13	5	328	108	+2	-0	-0	+1	+4	0.7
2013	28	MLB MLE	New York Mets	—	214	201	58	14	1	2	10	34	1	0	1	289	325	398	723	109	327	16	5	320	102	+1	-0	+1	+1	+5	0.7
2013	28	AA MLE	Binghamton Mets	—	17	15	6	2	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	400	471	533	1.004	133	429	12	6	390	150	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	322	289	100	22	1	7	27	58	4	6	1	346	409	502	911	156	404	18	8	404	160	+23	+1	-1	+1	+7	3.1
2015	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	439	386	115	28	1	15	35	71	13	5	2	298	376	492	868	194	321	16	8	383	145	+24	+0	+3	+2	+10	3.8
2016	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	622	557	156	36	4	26	47	107	10	4	1	280	347	499	846	219	293	17	8	368	135	+26	+0	+6	+2	+13	4.9
2017	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	543	462	149	34	0	20	54	56	19	7	1	323	415	526	941	203	326	10	10	413	166	+43	+1	+3	+2	+12	6.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	426	368	116	33	1	13	44	54	12	2	1	315	406	516	922	201	334	13	10	411	164	+32	+0	-0	+2	+9	4.4
2019	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	549	480	140	25	0	26	50	88	14	2	0	292	375	506	881	215	304	16	9	389	149	+32	+0	+4	+2	+12	5.1
2020	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	175	150	47	10	1	4	18	26	6	1	0	313	408	473	881	160	347	15	10	394	153	+11	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.7
2021	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	612	533	149	23	0	26	61	98	12	3	0	280	366	469	835	189	292	16	10	372	138	+27	+1	+2	+2	+13	4.6
2022	37	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	532	469	132	38	0	12	49	89	6	3	0	281	357	439	796	158	313	17	9	355	126	+17	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2023	38	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	626	558	151	28	0	24	51	110	11	4	1	271	344	450	793	179	304	18	8	347	121	+16	+0	-5	-11	+14	1.4
2024	39	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	539	462	119	24	0	11	57	95	13	0	2	258	355	381	736	123	299	18	11	335	113	+8	-1	-2	-10	+12	0.8
2025	40	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	191	169	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	219	294	314	608	95	256	19	9	273	71	-7	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	263	241	60	11	2	4	13	55	7	12	2	249	307	361	668	112	304	21	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2006	21	ROK RAW	Billings Mustangs	—	263	231	78	16	3	6	23	38	7	12	2	338	414	511	925	173	381	14	9	407	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	537	498	130	20	4	8	28	101	9	12	8	261	312	365	678	104	312	19	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	537	486	149	25	4	10	40	74	9	12	8	307	370	436	806	130	344	14	7	360	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	474	429	112	20	2	7	32	93	4	5	2	261	318	366	684	105	313	20	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA RAW	2 teams	—	474	416	124	22	2	8	45	73	4	5	2	298	372	418	790	120	340	15	9	350	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	415	117	25	0	2	28	48	8	9	4	282	339	357	696	75	308	10	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA RAW	2 teams	—	463	405	119	28	0	2	38	40	8	9	4	294	366	378	744	84	315	9	8	331	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	551	504	138	28	1	12	30	78	8	7	4	274	325	405	729	131	302	14	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	551	493	151	38	1	13	41	61	8	7	4	306	369	467	836	160	327	11	7	366	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	531	478	127	34	2	4	38	66	12	7	2	266	335	370	706	105	301	12	7	320	103	+2	+1	-9	+2	+12	0.7
2011	26	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	531	475	125	33	2	4	41	65	12	7	2	263	337	366	703	103	297	12	8	319	103	+2	+1	-9	+2	+12	0.7
2012	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	252	70	20	2	3	13	35	5	1	1	278	326	409	735	131	310	13	5	328	108	+3	-0	-0	+1	+6	0.9
2012	27	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	272	251	61	18	1	3	14	39	5	1	1	243	296	359	655	116	275	14	5	293	108	+3	-0	-0	+1	+6	0.9
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	231	216	63	15	1	2	11	36	2	0	1	292	332	398	730	106	341	16	5	325	106	+2	-0	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2013	28	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	231	215	62	15	1	2	12	36	2	0	1	288	332	395	727	107	337	16	5	323	106	+2	-0	+1	+1	+5	0.8
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	322	289	100	22	1	7	27	58	4	6	1	346	409	502	911	156	412	18	8	404	160	+23	+1	-1	+1	+7	3.1
2014	29	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	322	288	98	21	1	7	28	58	4	6	1	340	406	493	899	153	404	18	9	398	160	+23	+1	-1	+1	+7	3.1
2015	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	439	386	115	28	1	15	35	71	13	5	2	298	376	492	868	194	329	16	8	383	145	+24	+0	+3	+2	+10	3.8
2015	30	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	439	385	113	26	1	16	36	71	13	5	2	294	373	491	864	197	321	16	8	379	145	+24	+0	+3	+2	+10	3.8
2016	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	622	557	156	36	4	26	47	107	10	4	1	280	347	499	846	219	301	17	8	368	135	+26	+0	+6	+2	+13	4.9
2016	31	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	622	556	153	34	3	27	48	107	10	4	1	275	344	493	836	218	293	17	8	363	135	+26	+0	+6	+2	+13	4.9
2017	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	543	462	149	34	0	20	54	56	19	7	1	323	415	526	941	203	328	10	10	413	166	+43	+1	+3	+2	+12	6.2
2017	32	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	543	457	147	32	0	21	59	56	19	7	1	322	421	530	950	208	326	10	11	414	166	+43	+1	+3	+2	+12	6.2
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	426	368	116	33	1	13	44	54	12	2	1	315	406	516	922	201	340	13	10	411	164	+32	+0	-0	+2	+9	4.4
2018	33	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	426	365	114	31	1	14	47	54	12	2	1	312	408	518	926	205	334	13	11	408	164	+32	+0	-0	+2	+9	4.4
2019	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	549	480	140	25	0	26	50	88	14	2	0	292	375	506	881	215	307	16	9	389	149	+32	+0	+4	+2	+12	5.1
2019	34	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	549	479	139	24	0	27	51	88	14	2	0	290	375	509	884	219	304	16	9	387	149	+32	+0	+4	+2	+12	5.1
2020	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	175	150	47	10	1	4	18	26	6	1	0	313	408	473	881	160	355	15	10	394	153	+11	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.7
2020	35	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	175	150	46	9	1	4	18	26	6	1	0	307	402	460	862	153	347	15	10	385	153	+11	+0	+1	+1	+4	1.7
2021	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	612	533	149	23	0	26	61	98	12	3	0	280	366	469	835	189	296	16	10	372	138	+27	+1	+2	+2	+13	4.6
2021	36	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	612	533	148	22	0	27	61	98	12	3	0	278	365	471	836	193	292	16	10	368	138	+27	+1	+2	+2	+13	4.6
2022	37	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	532	469	132	38	0	12	49	89	6	3	0	281	357	439	796	158	319	17	9	355	126	+17	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2022	37	MLB RAW	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	532	468	130	36	0	13	50	89	6	3	0	278	355	438	793	160	313	17	9	349	126	+17	+1	-1	+2	+12	3.1
2023	38	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	626	558	151	28	0	24	51	110	11	4	1	271	344	450	793	179	295	18	8	347	121	+16	+0	-5	-11	+14	1.4
2023	38	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	626	558	154	31	0	23	51	110	11	4	1	276	348	455	804	179	304	18	8	354	121	+16	+0	-5	-11	+14	1.4
2024	39	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	539	462	119	24	0	11	57	95	13	0	2	258	355	381	736	123	298	18	11	335	113	+8	-1	-2	-10	+12	0.8
2024	39	MLB RAW	Seattle Mariners	—	539	460	119	24	0	11	59	95	13	0	2	259	359	383	742	124	299	18	11	335	113	+8	-1	-2	-10	+12	0.8
2025	40	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	191	169	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	219	294	314	608	95	256	19	9	273	71	-7	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
2025	40	MLB RAW	Chicago Cubs	—	191	169	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	219	294	314	608	95	256	19	9	274	71	-7	+0	+0	-3	+4	-0.5
2006	21	ROK MLE	Billings Mustangs	—	263	241	60	11	2	4	13	55	7	12	2	249	307	361	668	112	300	21	5	294	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2007	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	537	495	130	20	4	8	28	101	9	12	8	263	312	368	680	105	308	19	5	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2008	23	AA MLE	2 teams	—	474	435	112	20	2	7	32	93	4	5	2	257	318	361	679	103	304	20	7	297	87	—	—	—	—	—	—
2009	24	AAA MLE	2 teams	—	463	424	117	25	0	2	28	48	8	9	4	276	339	349	688	73	299	10	6	307	94	—	—	—	—	—	—
2010	25	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	551	508	138	28	1	12	30	78	8	7	4	272	325	402	726	130	297	14	5	316	100	—	—	—	—	—	—
2011	26	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	531	476	127	34	2	4	38	66	12	7	2	267	335	372	707	105	295	12	7	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2012	27	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	272	252	70	20	2	3	13	35	5	1	1	278	326	409	735	131	301	13	5	328	108	—	—	—	—	—	—
2013	28	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	231	216	63	15	1	2	11	36	2	0	1	292	332	398	730	106	335	16	5	325	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2014	29	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	322	288	100	22	1	7	27	58	4	6	1	347	409	503	913	156	404	18	8	404	160	—	—	—	—	—	—
2015	30	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	439	388	115	28	1	15	35	71	13	5	2	296	376	490	865	193	321	16	8	383	145	—	—	—	—	—	—
2016	31	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	622	560	156	36	4	26	47	107	10	4	1	279	347	496	843	218	293	17	8	368	135	—	—	—	—	—	—
2017	32	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	543	465	149	34	0	20	54	56	19	7	1	320	415	523	938	202	326	10	10	413	166	—	—	—	—	—	—
2018	33	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	426	367	116	33	1	13	44	54	12	2	1	316	406	518	923	202	334	13	10	411	164	—	—	—	—	—	—
2019	34	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	549	480	140	25	0	26	50	88	14	2	0	292	375	506	881	215	304	16	9	389	149	—	—	—	—	—	—
2020	35	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	175	149	47	10	1	4	18	26	6	1	0	315	408	477	885	161	347	15	10	394	153	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	36	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	612	534	149	23	0	26	61	98	12	3	0	279	366	468	835	189	292	16	10	372	138	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	37	MLB MLE	Los Angeles Dodgers	—	532	472	132	38	0	12	49	89	6	3	0	280	357	436	793	157	313	17	9	355	126	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	38	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	626	559	151	28	0	24	51	110	11	4	1	270	344	449	793	179	304	18	8	347	121	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	39	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	539	464	119	24	0	11	57	95	13	0	2	256	355	379	735	123	299	18	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	40	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	191	171	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	216	294	310	604	94	256	19	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	39	MLB MLE	Seattle Mariners	—	539	464	119	24	0	11	57	95	13	0	2	256	355	379	735	123	299	18	11	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	40	MLB MLE	Chicago Cubs	—	191	171	37	7	0	3	17	37	1	2	0	216	294	310	604	94	256	19	9	273	71	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	42	MLB MLE	CHC	100%	230	202	52	11	1	5	23	44	3	2	1	256	341	390	731	135	302	19	10	328	108	+2	+0	+1	-4	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	42	MLB CTX	CHC	100%	143	126	33	7	1	3	14	28	2	2	1	257	342	392	734	135	305	20	10	330	108	+1	+0	+1	-3	+3	0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	6502	5709	1617	354	9	201	589	1012	136	47	13	283	364	454	818	171	311	16	9	362	122	+239	+4	+0	-2	+141	39.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	571	161	35	1	20	59	101	14	5	1	282	363	452	815	170	309	16	9	362	122	+24	+0	+0	-0	+14	3.9
Career	—	MLE		—	9041	8042	2260	488	22	232	717	1429	178	94	34	281	353	434	787	153	314	16	8	348	122	+240	+4	+1	-4	+144	39.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	163	35	2	17	52	103	13	7	2	282	355	438	792	156	315	16	8	348	122	+23	+0	+0	-0	+14	3.8

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2013 AABinghamton Mets · 17 PAwOBA .437 → .390 (−47)K% 11.8% → 13.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.76%	÷1.034	×1.220	—	—	13.89%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	5.88%	÷1.019	×0.700	—	×0.958	3.87%
HBP% /PA	5.88%	—	×0.850	—	×0.958	4.79%
Singles /BIP	30.77%	÷0.949	×0.970	—	×0.958	30.14%
Doubles /BIP	15.38%	÷0.991	×0.860	—	×0.958	12.79%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.950	—	×0.958	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.012	×0.780	—	×0.958	0.00%

Factors used: league row EL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 90, 2B 98, 3B 80, K 107, BB 104 — applied at half strength. Age: age 29 vs a level average of 24.8 → −4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (4.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .437 → .390; ISO .133 → .112; BABIP .462 → .429. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2011 AAABuffalo Bisons · 44 PAwOBA .360 → .322 (−38)K% 13.6% → 15.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.64%	÷1.026	×1.200	—	—	15.94%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.55%	÷1.088	×0.690	—	×1.003	2.89%
HBP% /PA	4.55%	—	×0.940	—	×1.003	4.29%
Singles /BIP	20.59%	÷1.008	×0.930	—	×1.003	19.05%
Doubles /BIP	8.82%	÷0.977	×0.830	—	×1.003	7.52%
Triples /BIP	5.88%	÷0.981	×0.970	—	×1.003	5.83%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.139	×0.840	—	×1.003	0.00%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 128, 1B 102, 2B 95, 3B 96, K 105, BB 118 — applied at half strength. Age: age 27 vs a level average of 27.2 → +0.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .360 → .322; ISO .175 → .162; BABIP .353 → .324. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2010 AAABuffalo Bisons · 443 PAwOBA .369 → .324 (−45)K% 11.5% → 14.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	11.51%	÷0.984	×1.200	—	—	14.04%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.45%	÷0.958	×0.690	—	×1.018	5.46%
HBP% /PA	1.35%	—	×0.940	—	×1.018	1.30%
Singles /BIP	23.77%	÷0.969	×0.930	×0.999	×1.018	23.20%
Doubles /BIP	8.70%	÷1.133	×0.830	×0.999	×1.018	6.48%
Triples /BIP	0.29%	÷1.150	×0.970	×0.999	×1.018	0.25%
Home runs /BIP	3.48%	÷1.026	×0.840	—	×1.018	2.90%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 105, 1B 94, 2B 127, 3B 130, K 97, BB 92 — applied at half strength. Age: age 26 vs a level average of 27.2 → +1.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.999.

Result: wOBA .369 → .324; ISO .172 → .139; BABIP .336 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2009 AAANorfolk Tides · 441 PAwOBA .332 → .310 (−22)K% 8.4% → 10.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	8.39%	÷1.000	×1.200	—	—	10.07%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.71%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.033	5.50%
HBP% /PA	1.81%	—	×0.940	—	×1.033	1.76%
Singles /BIP	24.57%	÷1.000	×0.930	×1.013	×1.033	23.92%
Doubles /BIP	8.00%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.013	×1.033	6.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.970	×1.013	×1.033	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.57%	÷1.000	×0.840	—	×1.033	0.50%

Factors used: league row IL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 25 vs a level average of 27.2 → +3.3% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.2 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.013.

Result: wOBA .332 → .310; ISO .088 → .080; BABIP .320 → .304. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 AAChattanooga Lookouts · 323 PAwOBA .346 → .303 (−43)K% 16.7% → 20.4%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	16.72%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	20.40%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.22%	÷1.000	×0.680	—	×1.012	7.03%
HBP% /PA	0.31%	—	×0.840	—	×1.012	0.26%
Singles /BIP	25.66%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.987	×1.012	23.59%
Doubles /BIP	6.19%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.987	×1.012	5.63%
Triples /BIP	0.44%	÷1.000	×0.880	×0.987	×1.012	0.39%
Home runs /BIP	3.54%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.012	2.87%

Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 24.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.987.

Result: wOBA .346 → .303; ISO .143 → .125; BABIP .326 → .297. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2008 A+Sarasota Reds · 151 PAwOBA .344 → .283 (−61)K% 12.6% → 17.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.58%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	17.87%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.95%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.988	5.89%
HBP% /PA	1.99%	—	×0.930	—	×0.988	1.83%
Singles /BIP	29.06%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×0.988	25.09%
Doubles /BIP	6.84%	÷1.000	×0.960	×0.950	×0.988	6.16%
Triples /BIP	0.85%	÷1.000	×0.810	×0.950	×0.988	0.65%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.988	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 24 vs a level average of 22.8 → −1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .344 → .283; ISO .074 → .062; BABIP .368 → .319. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 ADayton Dragons · 516 PAwOBA .358 → .297 (−61)K% 14.0% → 19.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	13.95%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	18.98%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.56%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×0.990	5.16%
HBP% /PA	1.74%	—	×0.780	—	×0.990	1.35%
Singles /BIP	26.90%	÷1.000	×0.920	×1.004	×0.990	24.60%
Doubles /BIP	6.35%	÷1.000	×0.830	×1.004	×0.990	5.23%
Triples /BIP	1.02%	÷1.000	×0.910	×1.004	×0.990	0.92%
Home runs /BIP	2.54%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×0.990	2.01%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.0 → −1.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.004.

Result: wOBA .358 → .297; ISO .135 → .108; BABIP .350 → .312. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2007 A+Sarasota Reds · 21 PAwOBA .200 → .173 (−27)K% 9.5% → 13.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	9.52%	÷1.000	×1.420	—	—	13.52%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	4.76%	÷1.000	×0.750	—	×0.998	3.56%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.930	—	×0.998	0.00%
Singles /BIP	22.22%	÷1.000	×0.920	—	×0.998	20.40%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.960	—	×0.998	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.810	—	×0.998	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.880	—	×0.998	0.00%

Factors used: league row FSL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .200 → .173; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .222 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bob Watson'66-'84 * career totals — 16 seasons, 6,962 PA	10.5	6,962	184	27	290*	360*	483*	-108	-16	33.6	30.4
/162	664	18	3	-10.3	-1.5	3.2	pk7: 27
#2Jayson Werthlast yr '17 career totals — 15 seasons, 6,366 PA	9.6	6,366	229	132	267	360	455	-68	-36	32.1	29.8
/162	664	24	14	-7.1	-3.7	3.3	pk7: 27
#3Hal McRae'68-'87 * career totals — 18 seasons, 8,058 PA	12.1	8,058	191	109	286*	352*	488*	-166	-5	29.8	27.1
/162	664	16	9	-13.7	-0.4	2.5	pk7: 24
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 16 projected seasons	9.9	6,605	204	49	284	361	455	-118	+2	30.4	27.0
/162	664	21	5	-11.9	+0.2	3.1	pk7: 23
#4Mike Sweeney'95-'10 * career totals — 15 seasons, 5,848 PA	8.8	5,848	215	53	284*	354*	472*	-93	+19	27.4	25.8
/162	664	24	6	-10.5	+2.2	3.1	pk7: 24
#5Aubrey Huff'00-'12 * career totals — 13 seasons, 6,786 PA	10.2	6,786	242	37	270*	335*	458*	-92	-24	23.5	23.6
/162	664	24	4	-9.0	-2.3	2.3	pk7: 24
#6Kendrys Moraleslast yr '19 career totals — 13 seasons, 5,357 PA	8.1	5,357	213	6	265	327	453	-95	-16	14.9	15.2
/162	664	26	1	-11.8	-2.0	1.8	pk7: 16

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Justin Turner (OGILVIE)	42	—	—	—	—	253/338/387	133	302	3	2	19%	10%	108	+0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeff Conine 2007 · MLB	41	56→62	44→55	45→50	53	272/331/400	128	300	11	5	13%	8%	107	+1.9	251/314/385	134	275	13	8	14%	8%	98	+1.2	243/308/367	123	262	12	8	12%	9%	93	+0.4
✕Cornelio Garcia 2006 · AAA	41	56→59	46→40	42→45	51	271/328/409	138	315	11	5	18%	8%	108	+1.9	253/316/341	88	306	6	9	18%	8%	88	+0.5	252/320/308	56	307	3	8	17%	9%	79	-0.1
✕Sharnol Adriana 2013 · AAA	42	48→58	43→50	35→60	49	235/298/343	108	274	11	5	19%	7%	82	+0.0	234/304/341	107	282	11	11	20%	8%	84	+0.2	285/363/414	128	338	16	11	19%	10%	119	+0.8
✕Pedro Castellano 2012 · AAA	42	52→61	43→50	48→45	44	255/302/361	106	303	12	5	20%	6%	88	+0.4	231/275/344	113	279	13	8	21%	5%	74	-0.6	245/278/363	118	279	15	7	18%	4%	78	-0.1
✕Roberto Mendez 2014 · AAA	41	50→56	42→45	48→45	53	243/314/355	112	293	9	5	20%	9%	91	+0.7	238/309/337	99	297	8	9	21%	9%	85	+0.2	235/315/300	65	295	4	7	20%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Javier Robles 2012 · AAA	42	48→58	45→55	38→50	49	238/293/350	112	258	14	6	15%	7%	82	+0.0	218/283/317	99	258	10	7	19%	8%	72	-0.7	178/259/241	63	213	6	2	19%	9%	42	-1.2
✕Hector Alvarez 2006 · AAA	40	58	41→40	40→45	42	277/317/374	97	329	8	6	18%	4%	96	+1.0	249/288/342	93	288	8	9	16%	4%	78	-0.3	251/282/322	71	284	5	8	13%	3%	67	-0.6
✕Ramon Orantes 2014 · AAA	40	56→59	41→45	37→40	43	270/306/362	91	308	8	4	16%	4%	89	+0.5	243/280/325	82	288	7	5	18%	4%	70	-0.8	250/283/312	63	295	5	2	17%	4%	67	-0.5
✕Ray Martinez 2009 · AAA	40	49→52	44→45	44→45	47	240/292/350	109	274	12	7	17%	6%	82	-0.0	261/308/375	114	313	11	8	19%	6%	93	+0.8	302/344/404	101	367	9	6	19%	5%	113	+1.0
✕Rafael Castaneda 2008 · AAA	40	52→61	42→45	41→40	50	250/295/355	106	264	10	4	10%	6%	84	+0.1	235/298/350	115	261	11	9	14%	7%	84	+0.1	234/314/326	92	256	6	7	10%	9%	82	-0.0
✕Roberto Vizcarra 2007 · AAA	40	56→59	44→45	41→40	49	270/321/386	116	274	12	6	8%	5%	101	+1.4	241/287/348	107	249	12	6	9%	5%	79	-0.2	252/294/345	93	256	13	1	8%	5%	76	-0.3
✕Andres Galarraga 2003 · MLB	42	52→58	54→60	38→40	45	263/331/440	177	321	22	4	25%	7%	118	+2.6	271/329/443	172	323	21	6	22%	7%	118	+2.6	300/348/487	187	350	25	2	21%	6%	136	+1.9
✕So Taguchi 2009 · MLB	40	54→58	39→45	50	53	256/319/347	92	284	6	14	12%	8%	91	+0.6	228/299/326	98	257	9	10	15%	8%	80	-0.2	208/285/272	63	235	6	7	14%	7%	61	-0.8
✕Saul Soto 2019 · AAA	40	51→60	42→55	44→45	54	245/316/353	108	282	10	4	17%	9%	91	+0.7	213/281/344	131	263	15	6	24%	8%	77	-0.3	190/262/314	125	230	15	3	24%	9%	61	-1.3
✕Willis Otáñez 2014 · AAA	41	50→60	50→55	46→40	47	255/309/400	145	286	19	3	18%	6%	100	+1.3	231/290/356	125	276	16	4	22%	7%	82	+0.0	221/287/332	110	260	16	0	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Barry Larkin 2004 · MLB	40	53→63	42→50	49→50	54	252/312/368	115	275	8	10	12%	8%	93	+0.8	267/329/398	131	288	12	7	12%	8%	106	+1.8	284/347/412	128	302	12	3	10%	9%	117	+1.6
✕Ricardo Saenz 2006 · AAA	44	48→50	51→50	44→30	47	246/302/404	158	286	20	5	22%	7%	98	+1.2	230/288/372	142	270	16	3	21%	7%	86	+0.3	219/279/352	134	254	15	1	20%	7%	78	-0.2
✕Adan Amezcua 2014 · AAA	40	48	46→45	44→45	47	237/304/371	133	276	13	6	19%	7%	92	+0.7	217/285/324	107	269	9	6	22%	6%	74	-0.5	199/258/262	62	251	2	3	20%	4%	47	-0.9
✕Trenidad Hubbard 2005 · MLB	41	48→52	45→40	49→55	54	236/319/361	124	280	12	18	20%	10%	95	+0.9	240/303/337	97	266	8	21	12%	7%	83	+0.1	242/303/315	73	269	4	28	11%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Derek Jeter 2014 · MLB	40	59→69	42→50	46→55	51	287/342/392	104	318	10	9	13%	7%	109	+2.0	251/303/330	79	287	7	10	14%	6%	81	-0.1	251/300/306	55	289	4	9	14%	6%	74	-0.6

Justin Turner

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps