Wily Villar

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 28 RHP 6'4" / 215 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	26	MIX2 levels	19	26	6.23	2.95	30.3%	15.6%	—	K 24.1% · BB 16.1% · FIP 3.74
2026	27	MIX3 levels	35	55	4.91	4.39	23.7%	7.8%	—	K 17.9% · BB 9.3% · FIP 5.57
2027PROJ	28	MLBTEX	19	20	4.82	4.82	20.4%	10.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ30% MLB	29	MLBTEX	6	6	4.85	4.90	20.5%	10.5%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsWirfin Obispo (age 30) · Jim Miller (age 30) · Spencer Bivens (age 28)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125117vR 108

ERA4.82

FIP4.82

K%20.4%

BB%10.4%

K-BB%10.0%

Proj IP20

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 20 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.1%	8.0%	1.2%	6.23	3.74	—
2025	26	MIX MLE	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	24.1%	16.1%	8.0%	1.2%	6.23	3.74	—
2025	26	MIX RAW	2 levels	19	0	26	122	37	19	1	0%	1.4	30.3%	15.6%	14.8%	0.8%	6.23	2.95	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	55	245	58	19	10	0%	1.6	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	5.1%	4.91	5.57	—
2026	27	MIX MLE	3 levels	35	0	55	245	58	19	10	0%	1.6	17.9%	9.3%	8.6%	5.1%	4.91	5.57	—
2026	27	MIX RAW	3 levels	35	0	55	245	58	19	10	0%	1.6	23.7%	7.8%	15.9%	4.1%	4.91	4.39	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	28	MLB	TEX	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	10.4%	10.0%	3.2%	4.82	4.82	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	29	MLB MLE	TEX	19	0	20	84	17	9	3	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.90	-0.1
2028	29	MLB CTX	TEX	6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.90	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		6	0	6	25	5	3	1	0%	1.0	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.52	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	100	33	0%	1.1	20.5%	10.5%	10.0%	3.3%	4.85	4.52	+0.1
Career	—	MLE		54	0	81	367	73	42	14	0%	1.5	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.8%	5.33	4.96	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	0	200	906	181	105	34	0%	1.5	20.0%	11.6%	8.4%	3.8%	5.33	4.96	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Wily Villar (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.82	20.4%	10.4%	3.2%	—	4.90	20.5%	10.0%	20	+0.08	—	—	—
Wirfin Obispo R 2015 · 4.80 FIP	30	SU	4.80	18.6%	12.2%	3.1%	.292	1.31	28.6%	24.5%	126	-3.49	1.30	218	85
Jim Miller R 2012 · 4.56 FIP	30	SU	4.56	20.9%	11.8%	3.1%	.243	3.95	18.8%	14.7%	74	-0.61	3.95	140	85
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	85
Neil Wagner R 2013 · 4.02 FIP	29	SU	4.02	20.5%	7.5%	3.1%	.306	4.05	19.8%	7.5%	43	+0.03	3.11	135	84
Brandon Cunniff R 2017 · 4.79 FIP	28	SU	4.79	20.1%	11.6%	3.5%	.275	6.80	13.9%	-1.9%	30	+2.01	3.89	180	84
Tyler Sturdevant R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	29	SU	4.37	21.3%	8.5%	3.6%	.241	3.97	18.5%	11.9%	118	-0.40	3.44	149	83
Joe Nelson R 2006 · 3.91 FIP	31	SU	3.91	22.8%	10.4%	2.6%	.258	4.05	23.4%	12.8%	94	+0.14	3.08	139	83
Joe Colón J R 2017 · 4.25 FIP	27	SU	4.25	20.4%	12.1%	2.4%	.315	—	—	—	—	—	3.27	113	83
Tyler Walker R 2004 · 4.28 FIP	28	SU	4.28	17.5%	8.4%	2.9%	.311	3.77	18.5%	10.4%	101	-0.51	2.38	289	82
Jeff Fulchino R 2008 · 4.62 FIP	28	SU	4.62	16.7%	11.1%	2.8%	.380	3.86	21.0%	12.4%	164	-0.76	3.36	178	82
Tyler Yates R 2006 · 4.17 FIP	28	SU	4.17	21.2%	10.6%	2.8%	.254	3.70	20.7%	11.1%	151	-0.47	3.23	248	82
Francisco Del Rosario R 2007 · 3.93 FIP	26	SU	3.93	19.7%	9.4%	2.4%	.356	—	—	—	—	—	3.93	194	82
Cole McDonald R 2024 · 5.01 FIP	27	SU	5.01	20.9%	12.7%	3.8%	.281	—	—	—	—	—	2.81	153	81
Carlos Fisher R 2011 · 4.33 FIP	28	SU	4.33	15.5%	9.1%	2.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	2.48	245	81
Luis Mateo R 2017 · 4.60 FIP	27	SU	4.60	17.6%	11.2%	2.9%	.309	5.55	8.6%	-4.8%	43	+0.95	3.48	160	81
Santiago Casilla R 2008 · 3.71 FIP	28	SU	3.71	18.8%	7.9%	2.2%	.337	3.37	20.6%	10.4%	155	-0.34	2.76	647	81
Dustin Molleken R 2015 · 3.74 FIP	30	SU	3.74	20.4%	11.7%	1.6%	.287	3.90	20.6%	8.4%	77	+0.16	3.38	129	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Matt Ramsey R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	28	SU	3.78	24.9%	8.8%	3.0%	.276	2.42	21.7%	12.6%	34	-1.36	2.42	125	81
Arcenio Leon R 2015 · 4.73 FIP	28	SU	4.73	17.9%	12.5%	2.9%	.450	3.37	18.0%	9.1%	85	-1.36	3.00	115	80