Arlenn Manzanillo

C FCL Braves

Age 19 S/R 5'9" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1723ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKATL	141	.159/.321/.221	1	2	16	—	.118/.250/.168
2026	18	ROKATL	94	.185/.272/.247	0	1	1	—	.140/.196/.186
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBATL	204	.197/.269/.274	2	3	55	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBATL	36	.202/.276/.288	0	1	61	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBATL	101	.207/.281/.300	1	2	66	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Whiff%40

Speed31

K%28

ISO21

BB%18

Z-Con%12

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 51 proj PA

wRC+†55

AVG/OBP/SLG.196 / .267 / .272

PA51

HR0

K%29

BB%8

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE63

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$4M		$3M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	141	113	18	4	0	1	25	28	2	2	1	159	321	221	543	62	200	20	18	269	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK	FCL Braves	—	94	81	15	3	1	0	10	25	0	1	0	185	272	247	519	62	259	27	11	238	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	119	14	3	0	1	19	34	2	2	1	118	250	168	418	50	141	24	13	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	94	86	12	2	1	0	6	36	0	1	0	140	196	186	382	47	212	38	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	119	14	3	0	1	19	34	2	2	1	118	250	168	418	50	153	24	13	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	—	141	113	18	4	0	1	25	28	2	2	1	159	321	221	543	62	200	20	18	269	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	94	86	12	2	1	0	6	36	0	1	0	140	196	186	382	47	231	38	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	—	94	81	15	3	1	0	10	25	0	1	0	185	272	247	519	62	259	27	11	238	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	119	14	3	0	1	19	34	2	2	1	118	250	168	418	50	141	24	13	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	94	88	12	2	1	0	6	36	0	1	0	136	196	182	377	45	212	38	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	119	14	3	0	1	19	34	2	2	1	118	250	168	418	50	141	24	13	192	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	18	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	94	88	12	2	1	0	6	36	0	1	0	136	196	182	377	45	212	38	6	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	204	183	36	6	1	2	17	58	2	3	1	197	269	274	544	77	276	28	8	250	55	-11	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	107	96	19	3	1	1	9	30	1	2	1	202	276	288	564	86	278	28	8	258	61	-5	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	ATL	50%	202	181	38	7	1	3	17	56	2	4	1	207	281	300	581	94	280	28	8	265	66	-8	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	ATL	58%	312	280	59	10	2	5	26	85	3	6	2	210	284	310	595	100	281	27	8	271	69	-11	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	ATL	61%	397	357	76	13	3	6	33	107	4	7	3	213	288	319	607	106	283	27	8	275	73	-13	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.3
2032	24	MLB MLE	ATL	63%	445	400	86	15	3	8	37	119	5	8	3	216	290	326	616	110	284	27	8	279	75	-13	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2033	25	MLB MLE	ATL	65%	445	401	86	15	3	8	37	119	4	8	3	216	291	327	618	111	284	27	8	280	76	-13	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	ATL	65%	445	401	86	15	3	8	37	119	4	8	3	216	290	328	618	111	284	27	8	280	76	-13	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	ATL	65%	445	401	86	15	3	8	37	119	4	8	3	215	289	325	614	110	283	27	8	279	75	-13	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	ATL	65%	445	401	85	15	3	7	37	120	4	7	3	213	287	320	608	107	282	27	8	276	73	-14	+0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	ATL	65%	445	401	85	15	3	7	37	121	4	7	4	211	285	314	598	103	281	27	8	272	70	-16	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	36	33	6	1	0	0	3	10	0	1	0	202	276	288	564	86	278	28	8	258	61	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	ATL	50%	101	91	18	3	1	1	8	28	1	2	1	207	281	300	581	94	280	28	8	265	66	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	ATL	58%	180	161	34	6	1	3	15	49	2	3	1	210	284	310	595	100	281	27	8	271	69	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	ATL	61%	244	220	47	8	2	4	20	66	2	5	2	213	288	319	607	106	283	27	8	275	73	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	ATL	63%	281	252	55	10	2	5	24	75	3	5	2	216	290	326	616	110	284	27	9	279	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	ATL	65%	289	260	56	10	2	5	24	77	3	5	2	216	291	327	618	111	284	27	8	280	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	ATL	65%	289	260	56	10	2	5	24	77	3	5	2	216	290	328	618	111	284	27	8	280	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	ATL	65%	289	260	56	10	2	5	24	77	3	5	2	215	289	325	614	110	283	27	8	279	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	ATL	65%	289	260	56	10	2	5	24	78	3	5	2	213	287	320	608	107	282	27	8	276	73	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	ATL	65%	289	260	56	10	2	5	24	79	3	5	2	211	285	314	598	103	281	27	8	272	70	-10	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2287	2057	440	78	16	38	190	616	23	41	16	214	288	323	610	109	285	27	8	276	69	-74	+2	-1	+41	+50	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	126	22	5	11	54	175	7	12	5	215	290	326	616	111	286	27	8	276	69	-21	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.5
Career	—	MLE		—	3974	3571	741	130	26	62	336	1080	37	69	27	208	282	311	593	103	277	27	8	270	69	-123	+3	-2	+67	+81	2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	584	121	21	4	10	55	177	6	11	4	207	282	308	590	101	278	27	8	270	69	-21	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Braves · 94 PAwOBA .238 → .169 (−69)K% 26.6% → 38.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.60%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	38.30%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.64%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	6.65%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Singles /BIP	19.64%	÷1.000	×0.820	×1.026	×1.008	16.65%
Doubles /BIP	5.36%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.026	×1.008	3.99%
Triples /BIP	1.79%	÷1.000	×0.720	×1.026	×1.008	1.33%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.026.

Result: wOBA .238 → .169; ISO .062 → .042; BABIP .259 → .212. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Braves · 141 PAwOBA .265 → .192 (−73)K% 19.9% → 24.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	19.86%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	24.01%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.73%	÷0.947	×0.700	—	×1.008	13.21%
HBP% /PA	1.42%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.00%
Singles /BIP	15.29%	÷0.978	×0.680	×1.029	×1.008	11.02%
Doubles /BIP	4.71%	÷0.932	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	3.14%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.045	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	1.18%	÷0.878	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.63%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 76, 1B 96, 2B 86, 3B 109, K 102, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .265 → .192; ISO .062 → .039; BABIP .200 → .141. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	12	0	229	310	340	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	/162	664	7	1	231*	283*	340*	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.5	2,339	38	42	214	285	321	+42	+28	3.3	3.2
	/162	664	11	12	214	285	321	+11.9	+7.9	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
	/162	664	8	2	211*	275*	330*	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1

Arlenn Manzanillo

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps