Arlenn Manzanillo

Arlenn ManzanilloC FCL Braves

Age 18 S/R 5'9" / 165 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION94 act + 10 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.111 / .200 / .111

PA10

HR0

K%30

BB%10

BABIP265

ISO81

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$3M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 35 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT35

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Braves	—	141	113	18	4	0	1	25	28	2	2	1	159	321	221	543	62	200	20	18	269	68	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	122	15	3	0	1	16	40	2	2	1	123	236	172	408	49	169	28	11	197	19	-14	+0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	122	15	3	0	1	16	40	2	2	1	123	236	172	408	49	171	28	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Braves	—	141	113	18	4	0	1	25	28	2	2	1	159	321	221	543	62	200	20	18	269	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	122	15	3	0	1	16	40	2	2	1	123	236	172	408	49	169	28	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Braves	—	141	122	15	3	0	1	16	40	2	2	1	123	236	172	408	49	169	28	11	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	ATL	—	94	86	12	2	1	0	6	36	0	1	0	140	196	186	382	47	231	38	6	168	0	-11	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.7
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	ATL	—	94	81	15	3	1	0	10	25	0	1	0	185	272	247	519	62	259	27	11	238	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	ATL	0%	10	9	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	111	200	111	311		265	30	10	237	46	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	ATL	—	104	95	13	2	1	0	7	39	0	1	0	137	196	179	375	42	224	38	7	175	4	-12	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	207	186	36	7	1	2	17	61	2	3	1	194	268	274	542	81	269	29	8	250	56	-11	+0	+0	+4	+4	-0.3
2028	20	MLB MLE	ATL	48%	343	308	61	11	2	5	28	98	4	6	2	198	274	295	569	97	272	29	8	261	62	-15	+0	+0	+6	+7	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	446	401	82	15	3	7	37	125	5	8	2	204	280	309	589	105	274	28	8	267	67	-18	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	518	464	96	17	3	9	43	144	6	10	3	207	283	315	597	108	276	28	8	271	70	-19	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.3
2031	23	MLB MLE	ATL	58%	520	466	96	17	3	9	43	144	6	10	3	206	282	313	595	107	276	28	8	273	71	-18	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2032	24	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	520	466	97	18	3	9	43	144	6	10	3	208	283	318	601	109	277	28	8	275	72	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	520	466	98	18	3	10	43	143	6	10	3	210	285	326	612	116	277	28	8	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	ATL	57%	520	465	98	18	3	10	44	143	6	10	3	211	287	327	614	116	277	28	8	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	520	465	97	17	3	10	44	144	6	10	3	209	285	323	608	114	277	28	8	276	73	-17	+1	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	520	464	97	17	3	10	45	144	6	10	3	209	287	323	611	114	276	28	9	275	72	-17	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.4
2037	29	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	520	464	95	17	3	9	45	146	6	9	3	205	283	312	596	108	275	28	9	273	71	-18	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	71	64	12	2	0	1	6	21	1	1	0	188	268	266	533	78	269	30	8	244	56	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB CTX	ATL	48%	166	149	29	5	1	2	14	47	2	3	1	195	273	282	555	87	272	28	8	253	62	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	242	217	45	8	2	4	20	68	3	4	1	207	283	318	601	111	274	28	8	259	67	-10	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	293	264	55	10	2	5	24	81	3	5	2	208	282	318	600	110	276	28	8	263	70	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2031	23	MLB CTX	ATL	58%	299	269	56	10	2	5	25	83	3	6	2	208	283	316	599	108	276	28	8	265	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	296	266	55	10	2	5	25	82	3	6	2	207	282	316	598	109	277	28	8	267	72	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2033	25	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	295	265	55	10	2	5	25	81	3	6	2	208	283	317	600	109	277	27	8	268	73	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	ATL	57%	294	264	56	10	2	6	25	81	3	6	2	212	288	333	621	121	277	28	9	268	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	289	259	54	10	2	5	25	80	3	5	2	208	286	320	606	112	277	28	9	268	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2036	28	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	286	256	54	10	2	5	25	79	3	5	2	211	289	324	613	113	276	28	9	267	72	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	278	249	51	9	2	5	24	78	3	5	1	205	283	317	600	112	275	28	9	265	71	-10	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2809	2522	522	94	19	48	238	781	30	52	17	207	283	316	600	109	278	28	8	264	69	-98	+4	-1	+50	+61	1.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	121	22	4	11	55	181	7	12	4	207	283	315	598	108	279	28	8	264	69	-23	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	5305	4746	969	175	30	91	449	1479	61	98	30	204	281	311	593	107	274	28	8	270	69	-183	+8	-2	+92	+112	2.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	118	21	4	11	55	181	7	12	4	203	280	309	589	107	272	28	8	270	69	-23	+1	-0	+12	+14	0.3

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,927	51	53	207	280	317	+52	+28	3.4	3.2
/162	664	11	12	+11.9	+6.4	0.8	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Arlenn Manzanillo (OGILVIE)	18	30→35	30→35	45→50	60	183/253/257	74	265	1	2	30%	8%	46	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Emmanuel Morel 2015 · A	18	42	36→30	51→55	41	199/261/262	63	278	3	9	28%	6%	50	-2.3	192/267/250	58	298	2	16	33%	9%	50	-2.3	173/256/219	46	280	0	22	34%	9%	37	-0.9
✕Jose Perez 2022 · A	18	41	38→40	42→45	44	193/266/276	83	281	5	6	31%	8%	55	-1.9	200/299/287	87	269	5	7	25%	11%	71	-0.8	193/314/286	93	255	5	7	23%	13%	76	-0.1
✕Deivi Estrada 2019 · A	18	40	36→30	45→50	43	190/259/260	71	280	2	10	31%	7%	49	-2.4	210/287/274	64	289	3	9	26%	9%	63	-1.4	195/270/241	46	288	2	8	30%	8%	47	-0.8
✕Francis Grullon 2019 · A	18	39	35→45	47→55	45	184/247/246	62	246	2	9	25%	7%	41	-3.0	202/273/292	90	249	7	13	20%	8%	62	-1.4	191/274/289	97	228	9	18	19%	9%	61	-0.4
✕Enderson Delgado 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	45→30	42	194/262/251	57	270	2	6	27%	6%	49	-2.4	176/258/262	86	262	7	4	33%	7%	51	-2.3	175/262/263	87	248	9	2	30%	7%	50	-0.7
✕Kleiber Rodriguez 2018 · A	19	37	35→30	46→40	46	175/250/234	59	244	2	5	27%	8%	40	-3.0	219/280/288	69	282	3	5	21%	7%	63	-1.4	240/298/301	61	284	2	4	15%	8%	71	-0.4
✕Jose Herrera 2015 · A	18	42	34→40	49→40	44	196/267/251	55	284	2	4	30%	8%	50	-2.3	208/268/285	77	270	6	3	24%	7%	58	-1.7	210/292/298	88	277	8	3	26%	10%	69	-0.5
✕Ronald Hernandez 2022 · A	18	40→47	39→40	50	48	191/272/280	89	263	6	6	28%	9%	59	-1.6	199/283/283	84	294	7	6	32%	9%	64	-1.3	199/287/276	77	306	7	5	34%	10%	62	-0.7
✕Carlos Ramirez 2007 · A	18	39	36→40	44→45	46	187/255/250	63	262	3	6	28%	8%	45	-2.7	221/282/291	70	277	2	5	20%	6%	64	-1.3	241/302/311	71	291	2	4	17%	6%	75	-0.2
✕Francisco Aponte 2009 · A	18	43	36→30	49→60	46	205/268/268	64	265	4	9	23%	7%	54	-2.0	230/305/289	59	291	2	17	20%	8%	73	-0.6	224/288/270	46	274	0	22	17%	8%	61	-0.6
✕Yamal Encarnacion 2022 · A	18	43	37→40	51→60	47	204/269/281	77	269	4	13	24%	8%	57	-1.8	205/266/267	62	274	3	17	24%	7%	53	-2.1	225/283/303	79	291	5	45	23%	7%	64	-0.6
✕Chace Numata 2011 · A	18	44	36→40	47→40	43	205/271/275	70	308	4	7	32%	8%	57	-1.8	209/270/283	74	274	5	7	24%	7%	58	-1.7	248/299/321	72	292	3	2	15%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Leandro Arias 2023 · A	18	40→46	37→40	51→45	44	187/262/262	75	279	4	11	32%	8%	51	-2.2	199/268/279	80	262	6	10	25%	7%	57	-1.8	194/265/264	69	249	6	8	23%	7%	51	-1.1
✕Derwin Barreto 2019 · A	18	40	39→40	49→50	51	191/279/279	88	254	6	10	26%	10%	62	-1.4	199/274/291	92	289	7	10	31%	9%	62	-1.4	148/241/195	47	257	4	9	40%	10%	26	-0.8
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	45	-2.7	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	55	-2.0	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Alejandro Flores 2014 · A	18	41	37→50	48→40	43	196/253/264	68	270	4	7	28%	7%	47	-2.5	190/255/273	83	275	7	6	31%	8%	51	-2.3	197/254/327	129	264	12	3	29%	6%	59	-0.6
✕David García 2018 · A	18	38	36→40	49→30	41	182/250/243	61	270	3	4	32%	7%	42	-2.9	201/254/274	73	292	4	5	31%	6%	50	-2.3	188/283/256	67	278	4	2	30%	9%	56	-0.8
✕Wondy De Los Santos 2008 · A	18	40	35→40	52→50	43	192/257/251	59	262	3	8	27%	6%	46	-2.6	207/256/275	68	267	3	9	22%	5%	51	-2.3	208/250/275	67	259	1	11	19%	4%	47	-0.7
✕Carlos Garcia 2010 · A	18	38→48	34→40	43→55	51	178/270/230	52	243	2	8	26%	10%	47	-2.5	204/273/260	56	254	2	22	19%	8%	54	-2.0	245/292/307	62	302	3	21	19%	5%	68	-0.5

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps