Abel Pena — OGILVIE

Abel PenaC DSL Reds

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 198 lbs ROK HR +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .264 / .264

PA100

HR1

K%30

BB%6

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$4M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$15M	+$13M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	119	105	14	2	0	0	6	45	6	0	0	133	222	152	375	19	226	38	5	176	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	54	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	CIN	—	100	92	19	3	1	1	6	30	2	1	0	207	270	293	563	87	289	30	6	246	46	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	CIN	34%	192	173	36	6	1	2	13	57	4	2	1	208	279	289	568	81	291	30	7	259	56	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	CIN	48%	331	298	63	10	2	4	23	95	7	3	1	211	284	299	582	87	293	29	7	268	63	-14	+0	+0	+6	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	CIN	54%	436	393	85	14	2	7	31	123	9	4	1	216	289	316	604	99	294	28	7	274	68	-16	+0	+0	+8	+12	0.5
2030	22	MLB	CIN	57%	511	460	100	16	3	8	36	143	10	4	2	217	289	317	606	100	295	28	7	278	71	-17	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.7
2031	23	MLB	CIN	58%	520	467	103	17	3	9	37	145	11	4	2	221	293	328	621	107	296	28	7	280	73	-16	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2032	24	MLB	CIN	57%	520	467	104	17	3	9	37	145	11	4	2	223	295	330	625	107	297	28	7	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	0.9
2033	25	MLB	CIN	57%	520	467	105	17	3	10	37	145	11	4	2	225	297	338	635	113	297	28	7	284	75	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2034	26	MLB	CIN	57%	520	467	104	17	3	10	37	145	11	4	2	223	295	336	631	113	297	28	7	285	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2035	27	MLB	CIN	55%	520	466	104	17	3	10	38	145	11	4	2	223	297	337	634	114	296	28	7	285	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2027	19	MLB	CIN	34%	66	61	12	2	0	1	4	19	1	1	0	197	258	279	536	82	294	29	6	246	47	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	CIN	48%	160	145	31	5	1	2	11	46	3	1	1	214	283	303	586	90	295	29	7	255	53	-8	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.1
2029	21	MLB	CIN	54%	236	212	47	8	1	4	17	67	5	2	1	222	295	325	620	104	296	28	7	261	58	-11	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.0
2030	22	MLB	CIN	57%	289	260	58	10	2	5	21	81	6	2	1	223	296	335	631	112	297	28	7	266	61	-13	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB	CIN	58%	299	270	60	10	2	5	21	84	6	3	1	222	293	330	623	107	298	28	7	268	63	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2032	24	MLB	CIN	57%	296	267	60	10	2	5	21	83	6	3	1	225	296	333	629	109	299	28	7	270	65	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2033	25	MLB	CIN	57%	295	266	61	10	2	6	21	82	6	3	1	229	300	350	650	120	299	28	7	271	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2034	26	MLB	CIN	57%	294	265	60	10	2	6	21	82	6	3	1	226	298	347	645	121	299	28	7	272	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2035	27	MLB	CIN	55%	289	260	58	9	2	6	21	81	6	2	1	223	296	342	638	119	299	28	7	272	66	-11	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2224	2006	447	74	14	40	158	625	45	20	8	223	294	333	628	111	302	28	7	267	63	-94	+1	+0	+40	+63	1.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	131	22	4	12	46	183	13	6	2	224	294	336	630	113	303	28	7	267	63	-27	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	4289	3855	837	136	24	70	301	1218	93	34	15	217	290	319	609	102	296	28	7	275	69	-150	+1	+0	+77	+122	5.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	128	21	4	11	46	185	14	5	2	219	292	325	617	106	298	28	7	275	69	-23	+0	+0	+12	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	54	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,326	39	20	220	288	323	+42	+24	3.3	3.3
	/162	664	11	6	220	288	323	+11.9	+6.9	0.9	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Pena (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	198/264/264	66	289	1	1	30%	6%	46	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→55	47→40	38	176/239/249	73	297	5	6	40%	8%	30	-3.1	195/259/306	111	313	11	5	38%	8%	55	-1.4	199/259/329	129	331	13	2	41%	6%	57	-0.5
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Hector Martinez 2015 · A	18	42	38→45	41→45	33	201/241/285	84	303	5	7	34%	4%	40	-2.4	226/266/311	85	316	6	8	29%	4%	57	-1.2	244/276/343	99	341	7	9	29%	2%	66	-0.2
✕Bryan Andrade 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	49→45	44	191/257/246	55	259	2	5	26%	7%	38	-2.6	187/247/239	52	258	3	4	27%	6%	31	-3.0	187/256/263	76	248	7	5	26%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Jesus Galiz 2022 · A	18	40	36→45	51→40	40	190/241/256	66	253	3	7	25%	5%	33	-2.9	200/258/308	108	293	10	4	33%	6%	55	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Adrian De Leon 2022 · A	18	43	38→40	49→45	42	202/274/283	81	295	6	6	32%	7%	55	-1.4	204/293/283	79	316	6	6	34%	9%	64	-0.8	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Alixon Suarez 2012 · A	18	39	36→45	43→40	48	187/274/249	62	250	4	3	25%	8%	47	-1.9	195/268/275	80	256	5	4	24%	7%	51	-1.7	183/257/267	85	235	5	2	23%	7%	42	-0.7
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Emilio King 2008 · A	18	40	39→45	44→40	38	192/250/280	89	281	6	5	33%	5%	44	-2.1	184/255/258	74	259	4	7	29%	6%	41	-2.3	206/259/300	94	298	6	4	31%	4%	49	-0.8
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2018 · A	18	43→45	37→40	48→40	42	207/251/284	76	266	4	4	23%	5%	44	-2.1	217/263/295	78	273	6	4	22%	5%	52	-1.6	220/294/315	95	295	8	2	26%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Johanfran Garcia 2023 · A	18	42	35→50	45	45	198/259/260	62	268	2	4	26%	7%	42	-2.3	205/269/313	108	314	11	5	36%	6%	61	-1.0	201/254/335	134	301	19	5	38%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6