Abel Pena — OGILVIE

Abel PenaC DSL Reds

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 198 lbs ROK HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA

wRC+†53

AVG/OBP/SLG.198 / .266 / .265

PA9

HR0

K%30

BB%7

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.3	$0.5M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	59	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	104	14	2	0	0	7	45	6	0	0	135	231	154	385	19	217	38	6	178	7	-13	+0	—	—	+3	-1.1
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	104	14	2	0	0	7	45	6	0	0	135	231	154	385	19	230	38	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	105	14	2	0	0	7	45	6	0	0	133	231	152	383	19	217	38	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	105	14	2	0	0	7	45	6	0	0	133	231	152	383	19	217	38	6	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	9	8	1	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	125	222	125	347		289	33	11	247	53	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	CIN	34%	192	173	36	6	1	2	13	56	4	1	0	208	279	289	568	81	291	29	7	260	62	-9	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	CIN	48%	331	298	63	10	2	4	23	95	7	1	0	211	284	299	582	87	293	29	7	269	68	-13	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	CIN	54%	436	393	85	14	2	7	31	123	9	1	0	216	289	316	604	99	294	28	7	275	72	-14	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	511	459	101	17	3	8	37	142	10	1	0	220	292	322	615	102	295	28	7	279	75	-15	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	520	466	103	17	3	9	38	144	11	1	0	221	295	328	623	107	295	28	7	281	77	-14	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	520	466	103	17	3	9	38	144	11	1	0	221	295	328	623	107	296	28	7	283	78	-14	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.7
2033	25	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	520	466	104	17	3	10	38	144	11	1	0	223	297	337	634	114	296	28	7	285	79	-13	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2034	26	MLB MLE	CIN	57%	520	466	104	17	3	10	38	144	11	1	0	223	297	337	634	114	296	28	7	286	79	-13	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2035	27	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	520	465	104	17	3	10	39	144	11	1	0	224	299	338	637	114	296	28	8	286	79	-13	+0	+0	+9	+11	0.8
2036	28	MLB MLE	CIN	55%	520	465	104	17	3	10	39	145	11	1	0	224	299	338	637	114	296	28	8	285	79	-13	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.7
2037	29	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	520	465	102	17	3	9	39	146	11	1	0	219	295	327	622	108	295	28	8	283	77	-14	+0	-1	+9	+11	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	CIN	53%	520	464	100	16	2	9	40	147	11	1	0	216	293	317	610	101	293	28	8	280	76	-15	+0	-2	+9	+11	0.4
2039	31	MLB MLE	CIN	52%	504	451	95	15	2	8	38	144	10	1	0	211	287	306	593	95	291	29	8	276	73	-16	+0	-3	+9	+11	0.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	CIN	56%	489	439	92	14	2	8	37	142	10	1	0	210	286	305	591	96	288	29	8	270	69	-18	+0	-4	+9	+11	-0.2
2027	19	MLB CTX	CIN	34%	66	60	12	2	0	1	5	19	1	0	0	200	273	283	556	83	294	29	8	249	62	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	CIN	48%	160	145	31	5	1	2	11	46	3	0	0	214	283	303	586	90	295	29	7	258	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	CIN	54%	236	212	47	8	1	4	17	66	5	1	0	222	295	325	620	104	297	28	7	264	72	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	289	260	58	10	2	5	21	81	6	1	0	223	296	335	631	112	297	28	7	268	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	299	269	61	10	2	6	22	83	6	1	0	227	300	346	645	119	298	28	7	271	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	296	266	61	10	2	6	22	82	6	1	0	229	303	350	652	120	299	28	7	273	78	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2033	25	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	295	265	60	10	2	6	22	82	6	1	0	226	300	347	648	121	299	28	7	274	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	CIN	57%	294	264	60	10	2	6	22	81	6	1	0	227	301	348	650	121	299	28	7	275	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	289	259	59	10	2	6	22	80	6	1	0	228	303	351	654	124	299	28	8	275	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	CIN	55%	286	256	57	9	1	6	22	80	6	1	0	223	299	336	635	113	299	28	8	274	79	-7	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.4
2037	29	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	278	249	54	9	1	5	21	78	6	1	0	217	293	321	615	104	298	28	8	272	77	-7	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2038	30	MLB CTX	CIN	53%	274	245	54	9	1	5	21	78	6	1	0	220	298	327	624	106	296	28	8	269	76	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	CIN	52%	263	236	51	8	1	5	20	75	5	1	0	216	291	322	613	106	294	29	8	265	73	-9	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	CIN	56%	275	247	52	8	1	5	21	80	5	1	0	211	286	312	597	101	290	29	8	260	69	-10	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3600	3233	717	118	19	68	269	1011	73	12	0	222	296	333	629	111	299	28	7	269	74	-104	+2	-6	+64	+78	3.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	128	21	3	12	49	183	13	2	0	219	294	327	621	108	297	28	8	269	74	-19	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	6751	6048	1311	213	35	113	496	1908	144	14	0	217	292	320	611	103	295	28	7	278	74	-194	+3	-10	+118	+144	6.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	126	21	3	11	48	184	14	1	0	216	292	320	612	103	294	28	7	278	74	-19	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Tucker Barnhartlast yr '24 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,088 PA	4.7	3,088	53	8	241	318	351	+55	+57	16.5	16.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+12.3	3.6	pk7: 16
#2John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#3Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#4Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	5.0	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.8
/162	664	7	7	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	5.6	3,701	63	9	219	290	323	+66	+32	5.9	5.1
/162	664	11	2	+11.9	+5.7	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Pena (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	198/266/265	66	289	1	0	30%	7%	53	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→48	36→50	49→40	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	49	-2.4	204/277/280	76	276	6	5	26%	8%	61	-1.5	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→50	45	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	37	-3.3	211/249/327	116	282	13	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Carlos Cauro 2023 · A	18	42	36→45	45	41	193/263/257	64	306	3	5	35%	8%	50	-2.3	206/281/320	114	312	12	5	35%	8%	72	-0.7	198/283/308	110	288	14	4	34%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→41	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	58	-1.7	196/241/316	120	278	11	5	32%	5%	55	-2.0	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	55	-2.0	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	67	-1.1	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	75	-0.2
✕Abrahan Gutierrez 2018 · A	18	43	37→45	48→40	42	207/251/284	76	266	4	4	23%	5%	51	-2.3	217/262/290	73	274	5	4	22%	5%	56	-1.9	218/296/319	101	289	9	2	26%	8%	74	-0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Alixon Suarez 2012 · A	18	39	36→45	43→40	48	187/274/249	62	250	4	3	25%	8%	53	-2.1	195/268/275	80	256	5	4	24%	7%	57	-1.8	183/257/267	85	235	5	2	23%	7%	49	-0.8
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	53	-2.1	211/261/303	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	59	-1.6	185/229/266	80	254	7	0	29%	3%	36	-1.0
✕Richard Ramirez 2023 · A	18	37	37→60	47→40	38	174/236/245	70	296	4	6	40%	7%	37	-3.3	193/257/301	108	312	11	5	39%	8%	58	-1.7	197/257/339	142	318	16	2	41%	6%	64	-0.6
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	39→50	49→40	45	196/264/278	82	269	6	5	28%	8%	55	-1.9	200/286/292	92	306	7	4	34%	10%	68	-1.0	189/297/321	132	304	15	2	39%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Hector Martinez 2015 · A	18	42	38→45	41→45	33	201/241/285	84	303	5	7	34%	4%	47	-2.5	226/266/311	85	316	6	8	29%	4%	62	-1.4	244/276/343	99	341	7	9	29%	2%	70	-0.2
✕Lenyn Sosa 2018 · A	18	45→51	38→50	43→40	44	215/260/291	76	266	5	6	21%	6%	55	-1.9	209/239/295	86	263	6	4	23%	3%	48	-2.5	243/274/380	137	290	18	3	23%	3%	80	-0.1
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	192/236/269	77	243	5	3	22%	4%	41	-3.0	240/309/375	135	295	17	3	24%	8%	92	+0.4
✕Johanfran Garcia 2023 · A	18	43	35→50	45	46	203/266/265	63	272	2	4	25%	8%	52	-2.2	209/273/317	108	314	11	5	35%	6%	68	-1.0	203/258/337	134	300	19	5	37%	5%	65	-0.6
✕Jose Sibrian 2018 · A	19	42	36→50	48→30	42	200/260/265	65	267	3	5	25%	6%	51	-2.3	194/250/265	71	274	4	5	29%	5%	47	-2.6	202/260/295	93	255	9	0	24%	5%	55	-0.7

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps