Abel Pena

C DSL Reds

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 198 lbs ROK HR +16%BB +6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1805ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKCIN	119	.190/.308/.220	0	0	5	—	.126/.231/.146
2027PROJMLE	19	MLBCIN	229	.202/.272/.264	1	1	54	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLBCIN	25	.207/.279/.281	0	0	60	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	21	MLBCIN	84	.211/.284/.294	1	0	64	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

Chase%57

Z-Con%34

K%29

Whiff%26

BB%21

wOBA12

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 40 proj PA

wRC+†54

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .270 / .262

PA40

HR0

K%29

BB%7

ISO63

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.7M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	103	13	2	0	0	8	38	6	0	0	126	231	146	376	19	185	32	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	103	13	2	0	0	8	38	6	0	0	126	231	146	376	19	194	32	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	—	119	100	19	3	0	0	11	31	6	0	0	190	308	220	528	30	268	26	9	256	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	104	13	2	0	0	8	38	6	0	0	125	231	144	375	19	185	32	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	—	119	104	13	2	0	0	8	38	6	0	0	125	231	144	375	19	185	32	7	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	CIN	0%	229	207	41	6	1	1	16	67	4	1	0	202	272	264	536	63	288	29	7	248	54	-12	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	CIN	34%	75	68	14	2	0	1	5	22	2	0	0	206	278	278	556	72	290	29	7	256	60	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	CIN	50%	169	152	32	5	1	2	12	48	3	0	0	210	283	290	573	80	291	28	7	263	64	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2030	22	MLB MLE	CIN	58%	279	251	53	8	2	3	20	78	6	1	0	213	286	301	587	88	292	28	7	269	68	-11	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	CIN	61%	376	339	73	12	2	5	27	104	7	1	1	217	289	311	600	94	293	28	7	274	71	-13	-0	+0	+7	+8	0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	CIN	63%	439	396	86	14	2	7	32	120	8	1	1	219	292	319	611	100	294	27	7	278	74	-13	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	445	401	87	14	2	7	33	122	8	1	1	220	293	322	614	102	294	27	7	279	75	-13	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2034	26	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	445	401	87	14	2	7	33	122	8	1	1	220	293	323	616	103	294	27	7	280	76	-13	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	445	401	87	14	2	7	33	122	8	1	1	219	292	320	612	102	293	27	7	278	75	-13	-0	+0	+8	+10	0.4
2036	28	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	445	401	87	14	2	7	33	123	8	1	1	217	290	316	605	99	292	28	7	276	73	-14	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.2
2037	29	MLB MLE	CIN	65%	445	401	86	14	2	7	33	125	8	1	1	214	287	309	596	95	291	28	7	272	70	-16	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	CIN	34%	25	22	5	1	0	0	2	7	1	0	0	207	279	281	560	74	291	28	8	258	60	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	CIN	50%	84	76	15	2	0	1	6	24	2	0	0	211	284	294	578	83	292	29	7	265	64	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	CIN	58%	161	145	31	5	1	2	12	45	3	0	0	215	288	305	593	91	293	28	7	271	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	CIN	61%	231	208	45	7	1	4	17	64	4	1	0	218	291	316	606	98	294	28	7	276	71	-8	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	24	MLB CTX	CIN	63%	277	250	56	9	2	5	20	76	5	1	0	221	294	325	618	104	295	27	7	281	74	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	289	261	58	9	2	5	21	79	5	1	0	222	294	327	621	106	295	27	7	282	75	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	289	261	58	9	2	5	21	79	5	1	1	222	294	329	623	107	295	27	7	283	76	-8	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	27	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	289	261	58	9	2	5	21	80	5	1	1	221	293	326	619	105	294	28	7	281	75	-9	-0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	289	261	58	9	2	5	21	80	5	1	1	219	291	321	612	102	293	28	7	278	73	-9	-0	-0	+5	+6	0.1
2037	29	MLB CTX	CIN	65%	289	261	56	9	1	5	21	81	5	1	1	216	288	314	603	98	292	28	7	274	70	-10	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2223	2006	440	69	13	37	162	615	40	7	4	219	291	322	613	103	296	28	7	278	70	-72	-0	-1	+40	+48	1.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	587	129	20	4	11	47	180	12	2	1	220	291	324	615	104	296	28	7	278	70	-21	-0	-0	+12	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3722	3350	712	114	17	53	272	1036	73	8	7	213	286	304	590	92	289	28	7	272	70	-119	-1	-2	+64	+78	2.0
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	585	124	20	3	9	48	181	13	1	1	212	287	303	589	91	289	28	7	272	70	-22	-0	-0	+12	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Reds · 119 PAwOBA .254 → .176 (−79)K% 26.1% → 32.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	26.05%	÷0.993	×1.220	—	—	31.99%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	9.24%	÷1.038	×0.700	—	×1.022	6.38%
HBP% /PA	5.04%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.61%
Singles /BIP	23.19%	÷0.994	×0.680	×1.016	×1.022	16.48%
Doubles /BIP	4.35%	÷1.065	×0.600	×1.016	×1.022	2.54%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.016	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.994	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 99, 1B 99, 2B 113, 3B 80, K 99, BB 108 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.016.

Result: wOBA .254 → .176; ISO .030 → .018; BABIP .268 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	12	0	229	310	340	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	/162	664	7	1	231*	283*	340*	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.4	2,265	34	5	218	287	315	+40	+28	2.9	2.8
	/162	664	10	2	218	287	315	+11.9	+8.2	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2

Abel Pena

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps