Luis Aular — OGILVIE

Luis AularSS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 L/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION62 act + 7 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.167 / .286 / .167

PA7

HR0

K%29

BB%14

BABIP283

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$15M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.1M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$7M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	67	11	2	0	0	15	33	4	0	1	164	349	194	543	30	314	38	17	277	74	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	73	7	1	0	0	9	49	4	0	1	96	233	110	342	14	247	56	10	167	-1	-10	-0	—	—	+2	-0.9
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	73	7	1	0	0	9	49	4	0	1	96	233	110	342	14	280	56	10	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	67	11	2	0	0	15	33	4	0	1	164	349	194	543	30	314	38	17	277	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	74	7	1	0	0	9	49	4	0	1	95	233	108	341	14	247	56	10	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	74	7	1	0	0	9	49	4	0	1	95	233	108	341	14	247	56	10	167	-1	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	62	49	7	0	1	1	10	19	3	4	1	143	323	245	567	102	207	31	16	253	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ 2026 season
YTD	18	ROK RAW	BOS	—	62	43	8	0	1	1	16	13	3	4	1	186	435	302	738	116	241	21	26	363	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	18	ROK MLE	BOS	0%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		280	29	14	257	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	18	ROK MLE	BOS	—	69	55	8	0	1	1	11	21	3	4	1	145	319	236	555	91	212	30	16	253	58	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	171	148	28	4	1	2	17	53	4	3	1	189	290	270	560	81	283	31	10	268	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	BOS	48%	314	274	55	8	2	5	30	95	7	5	1	201	296	299	595	99	285	30	10	276	73	-10	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	BOS	54%	424	371	76	12	3	7	41	126	9	6	2	205	299	310	609	105	286	30	10	282	77	-11	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	502	437	91	14	4	9	49	148	11	8	2	208	304	320	624	112	288	29	10	286	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	555	484	102	16	4	11	54	163	12	8	2	211	305	329	634	118	288	29	10	289	81	-12	+1	+0	+6	+12	0.7
2032	24	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	590	514	109	17	4	12	58	173	13	9	2	212	308	331	638	119	289	29	10	291	83	-12	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	610	532	113	17	5	13	60	178	13	9	2	212	307	336	644	124	289	29	10	292	84	-12	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	BOS	57%	620	541	115	17	5	13	61	181	13	9	2	213	307	335	642	122	289	29	10	293	84	-12	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.0
2035	27	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	622	542	115	17	5	13	62	182	13	9	2	212	308	334	642	122	289	29	10	293	84	-11	+1	+0	+7	+13	1.0
2036	28	MLB MLE	BOS	55%	618	538	113	17	4	13	62	182	13	9	2	210	307	329	636	119	289	29	10	292	84	-12	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.9
2037	29	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	609	530	111	17	4	13	61	181	13	8	2	209	306	330	636	121	288	30	10	290	83	-13	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.7
2038	30	MLB MLE	BOS	53%	599	521	108	16	4	12	60	179	13	7	2	207	305	322	627	115	287	30	10	288	81	-14	+1	-2	+6	+13	0.4
2039	31	MLB MLE	BOS	52%	585	509	103	15	4	11	59	177	12	6	2	202	300	312	612	110	285	30	10	284	78	-15	+0	-3	+6	+13	0.2
2040	32	MLB MLE	BOS	56%	567	493	99	14	4	10	57	174	12	5	1	201	299	306	605	105	282	31	10	279	75	-17	+1	-4	+6	+12	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	59	52	10	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	192	288	288	577	96	286	31	10	253	67	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	BOS	48%	152	133	26	4	1	2	15	46	3	2	1	195	291	286	577	90	289	30	10	262	73	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	BOS	54%	230	201	42	7	1	4	22	68	5	3	1	209	303	313	616	104	291	30	10	268	77	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2030	22	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	284	248	52	8	2	5	28	84	6	4	1	210	305	319	624	109	292	30	10	272	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	320	279	60	10	2	6	31	94	7	5	1	215	309	330	639	115	293	29	10	274	81	-7	+1	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	336	293	63	10	2	7	33	98	7	5	1	215	309	334	644	119	294	29	10	276	83	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	346	302	64	10	2	7	34	101	7	5	1	212	306	328	634	116	294	29	10	277	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	BOS	57%	351	306	65	10	2	7	34	103	8	5	1	212	307	327	634	114	294	29	10	278	84	-7	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.6
2035	27	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	345	301	64	10	2	7	34	101	7	5	1	213	307	329	636	116	294	29	10	278	84	-6	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.6
2036	28	MLB CTX	BOS	55%	339	295	63	10	2	7	34	100	7	5	1	214	310	332	642	119	293	29	10	278	84	-7	+1	-0	+4	+7	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	326	283	60	9	2	7	33	97	7	4	1	212	310	332	642	120	292	30	10	276	83	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	BOS	53%	315	273	57	9	2	6	32	94	7	4	1	209	308	322	630	114	291	30	10	273	81	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	BOS	52%	305	265	56	9	2	6	31	92	6	3	1	211	308	328	636	117	289	30	10	270	78	-8	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	BOS	56%	319	277	57	9	2	6	32	98	7	3	1	206	304	318	621	112	286	31	10	265	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4027	3508	739	117	24	78	399	1194	85	54	13	211	306	324	631	114	293	30	10	273	80	-91	+6	-6	+43	+87	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	566	120	19	4	13	64	193	14	9	2	212	307	329	636	117	294	30	10	273	80	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7480	6513	1346	202	53	144	741	2243	162	101	26	207	303	320	624	114	289	30	10	286	80	-169	+10	-10	+79	+160	7.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	566	118	18	5	13	64	195	14	9	2	208	304	327	631	118	291	30	10	286	80	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.2	4,105	80	56	209	301	325	+44	+24	6.6	5.8
/162	664	13	9	+7.1	+3.9	1.1	pk7: 5
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Aular (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	185/282/263	78	280	1	2	32%	10%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	39→50	49→40	45	196/264/278	82	269	6	5	28%	8%	55	-1.9	200/286/292	92	306	7	4	34%	10%	68	-1.0	189/297/321	132	304	15	2	39%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→48	36→50	49→40	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	49	-2.4	204/277/280	76	276	6	5	26%	8%	61	-1.5	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→41	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	39	-3.1	207/271/343	136	302	13	8	34%	8%	73	-0.6	206/286/370	164	268	21	5	30%	9%	80	-0.1
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43→45	39→50	55	42	205/265/294	89	297	6	14	32%	7%	59	-1.7	186/260/273	87	276	6	12	32%	8%	53	-2.1	195/272/312	117	292	11	20	34%	9%	64	-0.5
✕Leopoldo Correa 2010 · A	18	41	42→45	50→30	48	197/280/305	107	291	9	5	33%	10%	68	-1.0	210/272/297	87	263	6	3	21%	7%	62	-1.4	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	58	-0.5
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	47	-2.6	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	63	-1.3	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	44→49	38→50	46→50	41	211/266/287	76	294	6	6	29%	6%	57	-1.8	209/260/301	92	287	8	8	28%	6%	58	-1.7	234/295/378	144	313	15	11	29%	7%	86	+0.3
✕Iverson Leonardo 2019 · A	17	41	37→50	46→50	42	188/272/268	81	299	3	8	35%	8%	57	-1.8	205/281/318	113	304	6	9	32%	8%	71	-0.8	184/260/314	130	264	10	10	32%	7%	61	-0.5
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	45	-2.7	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	58	-1.7	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	62	-0.4
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	44→46	38→45	46→50	45	204/279/282	78	313	6	9	34%	9%	61	-1.5	210/296/309	99	330	7	14	35%	9%	75	-0.5	218/296/333	115	311	9	18	31%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Omar Alfonzo 2023 · A	19	36→40	37→45	48→40	48	173/263/240	67	258	5	3	32%	10%	47	-2.5	205/289/309	104	317	11	4	35%	10%	72	-0.7	200/285/310	110	312	13	2	37%	10%	69	-0.6
✕Robert Lopez 2022 · A	18	38	39→45	48→45	41	181/262/270	89	284	6	6	36%	8%	53	-2.1	189/253/272	83	291	7	4	35%	7%	50	-2.3	184/245/264	80	277	8	3	35%	7%	42	-0.9
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	56	-1.9	213/303/311	98	271	7	8	22%	10%	78	-0.3	194/297/306	112	259	11	6	27%	12%	72	-0.3
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	38→48	37→45	46→55	47	183/255/256	73	241	5	11	25%	8%	47	-2.6	207/259/305	98	267	5	11	23%	6%	59	-1.7	254/307/365	110	342	6	19	26%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→42	38→45	53→60	48	181/263/263	82	240	5	13	26%	8%	52	-2.2	207/289/321	114	272	11	17	26%	9%	75	-0.5	202/287/312	110	269	12	24	27%	8%	70	-0.5
✕Luis Liberato 2014 · A	18	41→49	37→50	48→50	41	195/252/268	73	282	4	13	31%	6%	48	-2.5	191/251/270	79	288	4	11	32%	7%	48	-2.5	213/280/360	147	293	15	9	31%	8%	79	-0.1
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	39	41→45	46→45	48	183/286/282	99	291	8	6	36%	11%	66	-1.1	184/261/262	78	291	6	6	35%	9%	51	-2.3	177/255/266	89	258	8	2	32%	9%	47	-1.0

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps