Luis Aular — OGILVIE

Luis AularSS DSL Red Sox Blue

Age 18 L/R 5'10" / 165 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION39 act + 39 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†56

AVG/OBP/SLG.176 / .282 / .206

PA39

HR0

K%31

BB%10

BABIP273

ISO29

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+1.0	$3M	+$2M
Totals		$14M		$30M	+$24M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	74	6	1	0	0	8	50	4	0	1	81	209	95	304	14	240	57	9	159	-20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	67	11	2	0	0	15	33	4	0	1	164	349	194	543	30	314	38	17	277	70	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	39	29	4	0	0	1	8	7	2	3	0	138	359	241	600	103	143	18	21	281	73	-1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.1
YTD	18	ROK	BOS	—	39	24	4	0	0	1	13	5	2	3	0	167	487	292	779	125	167	13	33	393	159	+3	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.5
ROS	18	ROK	BOS	0%	39	34	6	1	0	0	4	12	1	1	0	176	282	206	488	29	277	31	10	258	56	-2	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
ROS	18	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		282	—	—	246	46	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	18	ROK	BOS	—	39	30	4	0	0	1	8	7	2	3	0	133	359	233	592	100	136	18	21	281	73	-1	+1	+0	+0	+1	0.1
TOT	18	ROK	BOS	—	78	63	10	1	0	1	12	19	3	4	0	159	321	222	543	63	209	24	15	269	64	-3	+1	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	171	148	29	5	1	2	17	52	4	2	1	196	296	284	580	88	281	30	10	269	64	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	314	273	56	9	2	5	31	94	7	4	1	205	302	308	610	103	283	30	10	277	70	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	424	370	76	12	2	8	42	124	9	6	1	205	302	314	615	108	285	29	10	283	75	-12	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.5
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	502	436	93	15	3	10	50	146	11	7	2	213	310	330	640	117	286	29	10	286	77	-13	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.8
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	555	483	102	16	3	11	55	161	12	8	2	211	307	325	632	114	287	29	10	289	79	-13	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.0
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	590	513	108	17	3	12	59	170	13	8	2	211	308	326	633	115	288	29	10	290	80	-13	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.1
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	610	531	113	18	3	13	61	176	13	9	2	213	309	331	641	119	288	29	10	292	81	-13	+1	+0	+7	+17	1.2
2034	26	MLB	BOS	57%	620	540	114	18	3	13	62	179	13	9	2	211	307	328	635	117	288	29	10	292	82	-13	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2035	27	MLB	BOS	55%	622	541	114	18	3	13	63	180	13	9	2	211	308	327	635	116	288	29	10	293	82	-13	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.3
2036	28	MLB	BOS	55%	618	537	113	18	3	13	63	180	13	8	2	210	308	328	636	117	287	29	10	292	81	-13	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.1
2037	29	MLB	BOS	58%	609	529	110	17	3	12	62	178	13	8	2	208	306	319	626	112	287	29	10	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+7	+17	1.0
2038	30	MLB	BOS	55%	599	520	108	17	3	12	61	177	13	7	1	208	306	321	628	113	286	30	10	287	78	-15	+1	-2	+6	+17	0.8
2039	31	MLB	BOS	58%	585	508	104	16	3	11	60	174	12	6	1	205	303	313	616	108	284	30	10	284	75	-16	+1	-3	+6	+17	0.5
2040	32	MLB	BOS	60%	567	492	99	15	3	10	58	171	12	5	1	201	301	305	606	104	281	30	10	279	71	-18	+1	-4	+6	+16	0.1
2041	33	MLB	BOS	62%	537	467	91	13	2	9	54	165	11	3	1	195	293	289	582	94	277	31	10	273	67	-20	+0	-4	+6	+15	-0.3
2027	19	MLB	BOS	34%	59	52	11	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	212	305	308	613	96	286	31	10	257	55	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	BOS	48%	152	133	27	4	1	2	15	45	3	2	0	203	298	293	591	90	289	30	10	265	61	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2029	21	MLB	BOS	54%	230	200	42	7	1	4	23	67	5	3	1	210	307	315	622	105	291	29	10	271	65	-9	+0	+0	+2	+7	0.0
2030	22	MLB	BOS	57%	284	248	52	9	1	5	28	82	6	4	1	210	305	315	619	105	292	29	10	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.1
2031	23	MLB	BOS	58%	320	278	60	10	2	6	32	93	7	5	1	216	312	331	643	115	293	29	10	277	70	-11	+1	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2032	24	MLB	BOS	57%	336	293	63	10	2	7	33	97	7	5	1	215	309	334	644	119	294	29	10	278	71	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2033	25	MLB	BOS	57%	346	302	65	11	2	7	34	100	7	5	1	215	309	334	643	119	294	29	10	280	72	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.3
2034	26	MLB	BOS	57%	351	305	66	11	2	7	35	101	8	5	1	216	313	334	648	118	294	29	10	280	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2035	27	MLB	BOS	55%	345	300	65	11	2	7	35	100	7	5	1	217	313	337	650	120	294	29	10	280	73	-11	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.4
2036	28	MLB	BOS	55%	339	295	63	10	2	7	34	99	7	5	1	214	310	332	642	119	293	29	10	280	72	-11	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.3
2037	29	MLB	BOS	58%	354	307	66	11	2	7	36	104	8	4	1	215	313	332	646	117	293	29	10	278	71	-12	+0	-1	+4	+10	0.2
2038	30	MLB	BOS	55%	331	287	61	10	1	7	34	98	7	4	1	213	311	328	639	115	292	30	10	275	69	-12	+0	-1	+4	+9	0.1
2039	31	MLB	BOS	58%	341	296	62	10	1	7	35	102	7	3	1	209	308	321	629	111	289	30	10	272	66	-13	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.1
2040	32	MLB	BOS	60%	343	298	61	10	1	6	35	104	7	3	1	205	303	305	608	101	286	30	10	267	62	-15	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.3
2041	33	MLB	BOS	62%	332	288	58	9	1	6	34	102	7	2	0	201	301	302	603	101	283	31	10	261	58	-16	+0	-3	+4	+9	-0.5
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4463	3883	822	135	21	86	449	1312	94	56	12	212	308	324	632	112	293	29	10	274	68	-161	+6	-9	+48	+126	1.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	566	120	20	3	13	65	191	14	8	2	212	309	327	636	115	292	29	10	274	68	-23	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.2
Career	—			—	8049	6996	1442	226	40	154	810	2389	174	100	24	206	304	316	620	110	287	30	10	285	76	-217	+10	-15	+86	+228	9.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	565	116	18	3	12	65	193	14	8	2	205	302	312	614	106	287	30	10	285	76	-18	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	87	67	11	2	0	0	15	33	4	0	1	164	349	194	543	30	314	38	17	277	70	-3	-0	—	—	+2	-0.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#5Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,542	88	57	208	302	319	+49	+27	6.0	5.3
	/162	664	13	8	208	302	319	+7.1	+3.9	0.9	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Luis Aular (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	159/321/222	63	209	1	4	24%	15%	64	+0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Victor Arias 2022 · A	18	43→45	38→45	46→50	44	201/275/277	76	311	6	9	35%	9%	54	-1.4	211/298/310	99	331	7	14	35%	9%	72	-0.2	226/292/355	129	316	11	14	30%	7%	77	+0.1
✕Leopoldo Correa 2010 · A	18	41	42→45	50→30	48	197/280/305	107	291	9	5	33%	10%	63	-0.8	210/272/297	87	263	6	3	21%	7%	57	-1.2	212/269/300	89	261	8	0	21%	6%	53	-0.5
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Carlos Soler 2018 · A	18	39	37→45	46→45	39	187/248/267	80	274	3	8	31%	6%	40	-2.4	216/272/305	89	319	3	8	31%	6%	59	-1.1	238/290/344	106	352	2	8	31%	5%	73	-0.0
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2022 · A	19	39	40→45	46→45	47	181/281/275	94	294	7	6	37%	11%	57	-1.2	183/259/259	76	293	5	6	36%	9%	43	-2.2	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Juan Villavicencio 2023 · A	18	43	40→50	55	41	205/263/297	92	301	7	14	33%	7%	53	-1.5	187/262/281	94	277	7	12	32%	8%	50	-1.8	192/266/303	111	286	10	18	34%	8%	55	-0.5
✕Shed Long Jr. 2014 · A	18	44→47	38→50	46→50	41	211/266/287	76	294	6	6	29%	6%	52	-1.6	206/257/295	89	285	7	8	29%	6%	50	-1.7	233/295/385	151	314	17	11	30%	7%	87	+0.6
✕Omar Alfonzo 2022 · A	18	42→40	37→45	48→40	49	193/291/265	72	306	5	4	35%	11%	59	-1.1	195/283/284	89	295	8	4	33%	10%	59	-1.1	200/285/307	107	317	13	2	38%	10%	64	-0.5
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Robert Lopez 2022 · A	18	38	39→45	48→45	42	181/262/270	89	284	6	6	36%	8%	48	-1.9	190/252/274	84	293	7	4	35%	7%	43	-2.2	183/243/267	84	277	9	3	35%	7%	34	-0.9
✕Juan Diaz 2007 · A	18	37→47	35→45	44→45	45	175/255/243	68	260	2	6	31%	8%	37	-2.6	206/250/273	67	281	3	5	26%	5%	40	-2.4	255/291/351	96	335	7	7	25%	5%	74	-0.1
✕Iverson Leonardo 2019 · A	17	41	37→50	46→50	42	188/272/268	81	299	3	8	35%	8%	51	-1.7	206/281/320	114	305	7	9	32%	8%	67	-0.5	185/260/318	133	265	11	10	32%	7%	57	-0.4
●Eliezer Álvarez 2013 · A	18	38→48	37→45	46→55	47	183/255/256	73	241	5	11	25%	8%	40	-2.4	207/259/305	98	267	5	11	23%	6%	53	-1.5	254/308/362	108	342	5	19	26%	6%	87	+0.4
✕Robert Gonzalez 2019 · A	18	37	40→45	51→60	42	173/271/261	88	302	7	6	41%	9%	50	-1.8	193/299/287	94	289	6	11	32%	11%	68	-0.5	180/305/264	84	250	5	20	26%	12%	63	-0.3
✕Henry Pena 2010 · A	19	41	39→45	45	44	190/267/281	91	302	5	5	36%	9%	52	-1.6	204/275/306	102	353	8	6	40%	9%	61	-1.0	205/278/341	136	309	13	8	35%	8%	67	-0.1
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	70	-0.3	210/316/279	69	269	4	14	21%	11%	73	-0.1	220/318/345	125	249	16	10	18%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2017 · A	19	38	36→55	53→50	41	181/253/249	68	278	3	8	34%	7%	37	-2.6	199/265/293	94	283	4	9	29%	7%	53	-1.5	197/264/318	122	274	4	11	28%	7%	58	-0.4
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Yeremy Cabrera 2023 · A	18	37→41	38→45	53→55	48	181/263/262	81	241	5	13	26%	8%	46	-2.0	206/287/315	109	272	10	17	26%	9%	69	-0.4	200/284/304	104	268	11	24	28%	8%	63	-0.5