Alexander Herrera

Alexander HerreraSS DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 159 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+60

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .281 / .269

PA7

HR0

K%29

BB%9

ISO70

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$3M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$5M	+0.4	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$3M		$6M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	64	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.2
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	90	8	1	0	0	13	36	2	3	1	89	219	100	319	11	161	34	12	175	5	-12	+0	—	—	+2	-1.0
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	90	8	1	0	0	13	36	2	3	1	89	219	100	319	11	148	34	12	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	89	8	1	0	0	13	36	2	3	1	90	219	101	320	11	161	34	12	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	89	8	1	0	0	13	36	2	3	1	90	219	101	320	11	161	34	12	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	18	MLB MLE	—	0%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		288	29	14	257	60	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	34%	182	161	34	6	1	2	17	51	2	2	1	211	294	298	593	87	291	28	9	269	68	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	48%	323	287	61	10	2	4	29	89	4	4	1	213	294	303	597	91	292	28	9	277	74	-10	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.1
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	54%	431	383	83	14	3	6	39	117	6	5	1	217	299	316	615	99	293	27	9	283	78	-12	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	57%	507	449	99	17	3	8	46	137	7	6	1	220	303	325	628	105	294	27	9	287	80	-12	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	58%	558	494	109	19	3	9	51	150	8	6	2	221	304	326	630	105	295	27	9	289	82	-12	+0	+0	+6	+12	0.6
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	57%	592	524	116	20	3	10	54	159	9	7	2	221	305	328	633	107	296	27	9	291	83	-12	+1	+0	+6	+13	0.8
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	57%	612	542	122	21	4	11	56	164	9	7	2	225	308	339	648	114	296	27	9	292	84	-12	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	57%	622	551	123	21	4	11	57	167	9	7	2	223	306	336	642	113	296	27	9	293	84	-12	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	55%	623	551	123	21	4	11	58	168	9	7	2	223	307	336	643	113	296	27	9	293	84	-12	+1	+0	+7	+13	0.9
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	55%	619	547	121	21	3	11	58	167	9	7	2	221	306	331	637	110	296	27	9	292	84	-12	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.8
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	53%	610	538	119	20	3	11	58	166	9	7	2	221	307	331	638	110	295	27	10	290	83	-13	+1	-1	+7	+13	0.6
2038	30	MLB MLE	—	53%	600	529	115	19	3	10	57	165	9	6	2	217	304	321	626	104	294	28	10	288	81	-14	+0	-2	+6	+13	0.4
2039	31	MLB MLE	—	52%	586	517	112	19	3	10	56	163	8	6	2	217	303	323	626	106	292	28	10	284	78	-15	+0	-3	+6	+13	0.1
2040	32	MLB MLE	—	52%	568	501	106	17	3	9	54	160	8	6	1	212	298	311	610	100	289	28	10	279	75	-17	+1	-4	+6	+12	-0.1
2027	19	MLB CTX	—	34%	63	56	12	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	214	302	304	605	89	291	29	10	269	68	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	48%	157	140	30	5	1	2	14	43	2	2	0	214	295	307	602	93	292	27	9	277	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	54%	234	208	45	8	1	3	21	64	3	3	1	216	297	308	605	91	293	27	9	283	78	-6	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.2
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	57%	287	255	57	10	2	5	26	77	4	3	1	224	305	337	643	114	294	27	9	287	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	58%	321	284	63	11	2	5	29	86	5	4	1	222	305	327	632	106	295	27	9	289	82	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	57%	337	298	66	11	2	6	31	91	5	4	1	221	305	332	638	111	296	27	9	291	83	-7	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	57%	347	307	69	12	2	6	32	93	5	4	1	225	308	336	644	111	296	27	9	292	84	-7	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	57%	352	312	69	12	2	6	32	94	5	4	1	221	304	330	634	109	296	27	9	293	84	-7	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.5
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	55%	346	306	68	12	2	6	32	93	5	4	1	222	306	333	639	111	296	27	9	293	84	-6	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.5
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	55%	340	300	66	11	2	6	32	92	5	4	1	220	306	330	636	110	296	27	9	292	84	-7	+0	-0	+4	+7	0.5
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	53%	326	287	64	11	2	6	31	89	5	4	1	223	310	338	648	115	295	27	10	290	83	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.4
2038	30	MLB CTX	—	53%	316	278	61	10	2	5	30	87	5	3	1	219	307	324	630	104	294	28	9	288	81	-7	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.2
2039	31	MLB CTX	—	52%	306	270	59	10	2	5	29	85	4	3	1	219	304	326	630	107	292	28	9	284	78	-8	+0	-1	+3	+7	0.1
2040	32	MLB CTX	—	52%	295	261	54	9	1	4	28	83	4	3	1	207	294	295	589	88	289	28	9	279	75	-9	+0	-2	+3	+6	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	4027	3562	783	134	23	66	373	1095	58	46	12	220	304	326	630	106	296	27	9	288	80	-92	+4	-6	+43	+87	3.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	127	22	4	11	60	177	9	7	2	221	304	330	635	110	297	27	9	288	80	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	7545	6670	1452	246	42	123	704	2061	108	86	24	218	303	322	625	105	294	27	9	286	80	-171	+7	-10	+80	+161	6.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	126	21	4	11	61	178	9	7	2	219	304	327	631	108	296	27	9	286	80	-15	+1	-1	+7	+14	0.6

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.2	4,115	68	45	220	302	327	+44	+24	6.6	5.7
/162	664	11	7	+7.1	+3.9	1.1	pk7: 5
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	3.7	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
/162	664	8	8	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Herrera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	200/281/269	69	288	1	1	29%	9%	60	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→48	36→50	49→40	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	49	-2.4	204/277/280	76	276	6	5	26%	8%	61	-1.5	237/296/380	143	283	15	2	21%	6%	89	+0.2
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→50	47	190/277/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	55	-2.0	190/259/257	67	295	3	15	34%	7%	49	-2.4	198/276/278	80	279	7	21	29%	7%	58	-0.6
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	52	-2.2	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	68	-1.0	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	72	-0.3
✕Dennys Riera 2023 · A	18	35	39→40	50	36	173/231/260	87	272	7	6	37%	6%	38	-3.2	172/242/246	74	249	5	6	31%	6%	40	-3.0	183/266/258	74	252	5	7	27%	5%	53	-0.5
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→50	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	58	-1.7	242/287/359	117	276	12	5	17%	5%	82	-0.0	243/286/377	134	275	16	5	18%	5%	84	+0.1
✕Jorge Mateo 2013 · A	18	44→48	40→50	51→65	48	211/282/302	91	281	6	10	26%	9%	67	-1.1	211/270/308	97	287	7	34	27%	7%	64	-1.3	213/255/343	130	274	13	52	27%	5%	65	-0.4
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	45	-2.7	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	55	-2.0	224/262/324	100	290	5	8	24%	5%	62	-0.5
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	62	-1.4	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	66	-1.1	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	67	-0.4
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→41	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	58	-1.7	196/241/316	120	278	11	5	32%	5%	55	-2.0	206/269/359	153	269	19	7	30%	7%	74	-0.4
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	43	-2.8	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	58	-1.7	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	50	-0.6
✕Carlos Cauro 2023 · A	18	42	36→45	45	41	193/263/257	64	306	3	5	35%	8%	50	-2.3	206/281/320	114	312	12	5	35%	8%	72	-0.7	198/283/308	110	288	14	4	34%	8%	69	-0.3
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	45	-2.7	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	51	-2.3	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	54	-2.0	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	58	-1.7	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	46	-0.7
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→50	45	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	37	-3.3	211/249/327	116	282	13	5	29%	5%	60	-1.6	225/268/375	150	277	17	3	25%	5%	76	-0.2
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→45	49→50	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	40	-3.1	205/251/277	72	282	5	10	28%	5%	49	-2.4	227/293/349	122	296	14	8	27%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	55	-2.0	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	67	-1.1	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	75	-0.2
✕Aroon Escobar 2023 · A	18	42→45	39→45	47→55	48	202/296/282	81	254	6	12	22%	8%	70	-0.9	210/296/305	95	253	9	16	20%	9%	74	-0.5	215/297/320	105	260	12	19	21%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2008 · A	18	40	37→40	45→55	39	190/264/262	72	298	5	8	36%	7%	52	-2.2	202/281/278	76	301	6	15	32%	8%	62	-1.4	192/271/258	67	293	7	17	34%	8%	52	-0.7
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	39→50	49→40	45	196/264/278	82	269	6	5	28%	8%	55	-1.9	200/286/292	92	306	7	4	34%	10%	68	-1.0	189/297/321	132	304	15	2	39%	12%	76	-0.2
✕Maximo Rivera 2011 · A	18	40	35→45	46→60	39	188/247/243	55	285	3	9	33%	6%	40	-3.0	208/263/297	89	272	9	19	26%	6%	59	-1.7	235/283/299	64	303	5	24	23%	5%	64	-0.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps