Alexander Herrera

Alexander HerreraSS DSL Cubs Red

Age 18 R/R 6'2" / 159 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 90 proj PA

wRC+54

AVG/OBP/SLG.199 / .278 / .268

PA90

HR1

K%30

BB%9

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.0	$5M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.2	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$4M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.2M
Totals		$13M		$26M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	90	8	1	0	0	13	37	2	3	1	89	219	100	319	11	151	35	12	172	-10	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	18	MLB	—	—	90	81	17	3	1	1	8	27	1	1	0	210	289	309	598	99	288	30	9	255	54	-5	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	182	162	34	6	1	2	16	52	2	2	1	210	289	296	585	86	291	29	9	267	63	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.1
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	323	287	61	10	2	4	29	91	4	4	1	213	294	303	597	91	293	28	9	275	69	-11	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.2
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	431	383	83	14	3	6	39	119	6	6	1	217	299	316	615	99	294	28	9	281	73	-13	+1	+0	+5	+12	0.5
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	507	450	99	17	3	8	45	139	7	7	2	220	301	324	625	104	295	27	9	285	76	-14	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.7
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	558	495	109	19	3	9	50	152	8	7	2	220	302	325	627	105	296	27	9	287	78	-14	+1	+0	+6	+16	0.9
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	592	525	116	20	3	10	53	161	9	8	2	221	303	328	631	107	296	27	9	289	79	-14	+1	+0	+6	+17	1.0
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	612	543	121	20	4	11	55	166	9	8	2	223	305	335	640	112	297	27	9	290	80	-14	+1	+0	+7	+17	1.1
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	622	552	123	21	4	11	56	169	9	8	2	223	305	335	640	112	296	27	9	291	81	-13	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.2
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	623	552	123	21	4	11	57	170	9	8	2	223	306	335	641	112	296	27	9	291	81	-13	+1	+0	+7	+18	1.2
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	619	548	120	20	3	11	57	170	9	8	2	219	303	327	630	108	296	27	9	290	80	-14	+1	-1	+7	+18	1.1
2037	29	MLB	—	61%	610	539	119	20	3	11	57	168	9	7	2	221	306	330	636	109	295	28	9	288	79	-15	+1	-1	+7	+17	0.9
2038	30	MLB	—	62%	600	530	115	19	3	10	56	167	9	6	2	217	303	321	623	104	294	28	9	286	77	-16	+0	-2	+6	+17	0.6
2039	31	MLB	—	63%	586	518	111	19	3	9	55	165	8	5	1	214	299	315	614	100	292	28	9	282	74	-17	+1	-3	+6	+17	0.4
2040	32	MLB	—	64%	568	502	106	17	3	9	53	162	8	4	1	211	297	311	607	100	289	29	9	277	70	-19	+0	-4	+6	+16	-0.0
2027	19	MLB	—	34%	63	56	12	2	0	1	6	18	1	1	0	214	302	304	605	89	291	29	10	267	63	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	20	MLB	—	48%	157	140	30	5	1	2	14	44	2	2	1	214	295	307	602	93	293	28	9	275	69	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	21	MLB	—	54%	234	208	45	8	1	3	21	65	3	3	1	216	297	308	605	91	294	28	9	281	73	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.2
2030	22	MLB	—	57%	287	255	57	10	2	5	26	79	4	4	1	224	305	337	643	114	295	28	9	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.4
2031	23	MLB	—	58%	321	284	63	11	2	5	29	88	5	4	1	222	305	327	632	106	296	27	9	287	78	-8	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.5
2032	24	MLB	—	57%	337	299	66	11	2	6	30	92	5	4	1	221	302	331	633	110	296	27	9	289	79	-8	+0	+0	+4	+10	0.6
2033	25	MLB	—	57%	347	308	69	12	2	6	31	94	5	5	1	224	305	334	640	110	297	27	9	290	80	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2034	26	MLB	—	57%	352	312	69	12	2	6	32	96	5	5	1	221	304	330	634	109	296	27	9	291	81	-8	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2035	27	MLB	—	55%	346	306	67	11	2	6	32	94	5	5	1	219	303	327	630	108	296	27	9	291	81	-7	+1	+0	+4	+10	0.7
2036	28	MLB	—	59%	366	324	72	12	2	7	34	100	5	5	1	222	306	336	642	114	296	27	9	290	80	-8	+1	-0	+4	+10	0.6
2037	29	MLB	—	61%	372	329	73	12	2	7	35	103	5	4	1	222	306	334	641	112	295	28	9	288	79	-9	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.5
2038	30	MLB	—	62%	373	330	72	12	2	6	35	104	5	4	1	218	303	321	624	103	294	28	9	286	77	-10	+0	-1	+4	+11	0.4
2039	31	MLB	—	63%	370	328	71	12	2	6	34	104	5	3	1	216	300	320	620	104	292	28	9	282	74	-11	+0	-2	+4	+10	0.2
2040	32	MLB	—	64%	362	320	68	11	2	6	34	103	5	3	1	212	298	316	614	103	289	28	9	277	70	-12	+0	-2	+4	+10	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	4287	3799	834	141	24	72	393	1184	60	52	13	220	303	326	629	107	297	28	9	286	77	-112	+5	-7	+46	+121	5.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	127	21	4	11	60	180	9	8	2	220	304	328	632	108	299	28	9	286	77	-17	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	7628	6757	1465	247	43	123	699	2115	109	92	24	217	300	321	621	104	294	28	9	284	75	-212	+9	-10	+82	+216	8.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	576	125	21	4	10	60	180	9	8	2	217	301	319	620	102	296	28	9	284	75	-18	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	59	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#3Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#4Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	10	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
	/162	664	14	6	237	301	368	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#5Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 9 projected seasons	9	4,376	72	52	219	299	325	+47	+27	5.6	4.9
	/162	664	11	8	219	299	325	+7.1	+4.1	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Herrera (OGILVIE)	18	—	—	—	—	199/278/268	69	288	1	1	30%	9%	54	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Andrés Nolaya 2023 · A	18	41	35→45	44→55	47	190/278/250	60	289	2	10	32%	10%	49	-1.8	189/258/257	68	296	3	15	34%	8%	41	-2.3	194/269/271	76	278	5	22	30%	7%	48	-0.6
✕Hidekel Abreu 2016 · A	18	42	36→40	49→50	45	199/266/263	64	280	3	8	28%	8%	46	-2.0	223/284/304	81	293	5	10	24%	7%	63	-0.8	237/299/317	80	300	6	12	21%	8%	68	-0.2
✕Ricardo Cova 2022 · A	18	44	38→50	47→55	44	212/278/287	75	273	6	9	24%	6%	57	-1.2	209/268/294	85	323	7	15	35%	6%	55	-1.4	235/286/365	130	286	14	20	22%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Marco Guzman 2013 · A	18	37	35→45	47→50	47	176/257/242	66	244	2	8	26%	8%	38	-2.6	198/263/278	80	251	4	7	22%	8%	49	-1.8	227/264/332	105	291	6	8	23%	5%	60	-0.3
✕Rodolfo Castro 2017 · A	18	43→40	38→55	48→50	43	202/265/291	89	290	5	5	30%	7%	53	-1.5	195/240/313	118	278	11	5	32%	5%	47	-1.9	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Raul Juarez 2016 · A	18	37	38→45	45→40	37	182/242/262	80	251	5	7	29%	4%	36	-2.7	207/265/290	83	274	7	5	26%	5%	53	-1.5	203/259/274	71	266	8	3	26%	4%	44	-0.5
✕Yordany De Los Santos 2023 · A	18	42→39	36→45	51→60	46	193/275/265	72	282	3	13	30%	9%	51	-1.7	203/273/292	89	313	7	23	34%	8%	56	-1.3	206/260/333	127	301	14	35	35%	6%	58	-0.7
✕Daniel Santos 2017 · A	18	40	35→45	51→40	43	188/256/247	59	280	3	8	32%	8%	37	-2.6	189/258/268	79	267	5	6	29%	6%	44	-2.1	173/243/251	78	245	5	4	30%	6%	33	-0.8
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Victor Heredia 2018 · A	18	45	38→50	49→30	42	211/275/293	82	307	6	6	31%	7%	57	-1.2	221/268/323	102	290	9	4	26%	5%	62	-0.9	221/264/326	105	281	10	1	25%	4%	63	-0.3
✕Hidekel Gonzalez 2015 · A	18	44	37→45	47→45	37	205/260/286	81	312	4	7	34%	5%	49	-1.8	227/275/314	87	287	6	8	22%	5%	63	-0.9	241/291/328	87	291	6	8	19%	4%	72	-0.1
✕Guillermo Pimentel 2008 · A	18	40	37→40	45→55	39	190/264/262	72	298	5	8	36%	7%	46	-2.0	202/281/278	76	302	6	15	32%	8%	57	-1.2	192/271/258	66	296	7	17	34%	8%	46	-0.7
✕Aaron Familia 2017 · A	18	38	38→40	48→40	45	181/270/258	78	284	6	4	36%	9%	48	-1.9	187/273/272	85	333	6	4	41%	9%	53	-1.5	167/258/250	82	313	7	3	44%	9%	39	-0.7
✕Ronaldo Hernández 2016 · A	18	44	37→55	50→45	43	208/271/281	73	270	4	6	23%	6%	53	-1.5	241/286/357	116	275	12	5	17%	5%	79	+0.3	241/284/373	131	274	16	5	18%	5%	80	+0.2
✕Bryan Andrade 2023 · A	18	40	35→45	49→45	44	191/257/246	55	259	2	5	26%	7%	38	-2.6	187/247/239	52	258	3	4	27%	6%	31	-3.0	187/256/263	76	248	7	5	26%	8%	40	-0.9
✕Yasmil Bucce 2023 · A	18	41	40→45	49→30	44	198/265/288	89	272	7	5	29%	7%	53	-1.5	202/288/300	98	309	8	4	34%	10%	66	-0.6	205/306/334	128	325	13	2	37%	11%	79	+0.2
✕Luis Torrens 2014 · A	18	42→47	36→55	49→30	45	196/262/257	61	277	3	5	29%	8%	43	-2.2	204/277/283	79	275	6	5	26%	8%	56	-1.3	231/286/395	164	298	21	0	29%	7%	87	+0.4
✕Rodolfo Durán 2016 · A	18	39	36→55	45→40	37	189/231/257	68	267	3	6	30%	5%	29	-3.2	211/250/329	118	282	13	5	29%	5%	56	-1.3	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Rafael Herrera 2019 · A	18	43	35→40	52→50	45	200/267/266	67	269	2	12	25%	7%	47	-1.9	218/286/298	80	291	4	12	24%	8%	63	-0.8	229/304/310	81	297	4	17	22%	9%	71	-0.1
✕Jhoneiker Betancourt 2018 · A	18	45	37→55	51→40	37	209/263/281	71	306	3	8	31%	5%	49	-1.8	197/253/262	65	271	2	5	27%	5%	40	-2.4	183/253/290	107	242	12	2	29%	6%	49	-0.6