Alexander Herrera

SS DSL Cubs Red

Age 19 R/R 6'2" / 159 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1801ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	17	ROKDSL Cubs Red	105	.136/.333/.160	0	3	7	—	.091/.238/.102
2027PROJMLE	19	MLB—	215	.203/.289/.269	1	3	62	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	20	MLB—	25	.207/.294/.282	0	0	67	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	21	MLB—	84	.211/.298/.294	1	1	71	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

BB%91

Chase%82

K%43

Whiff%29

Z-Con%28

Speed17

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA

wRC+62

AVG/OBP/SLG.201 / .287 / .266

PA37

HR0

K%28

BB%10

ISO66

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$7M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	17	ROK	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	88	8	1	0	0	15	30	2	3	1	91	238	102	340	11	135	29	14	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	88	8	1	0	0	15	30	2	3	1	91	238	102	340	11	138	29	14	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	81	11	2	0	0	22	24	2	3	1	136	333	160	494	25	193	23	21	262	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	87	8	1	0	0	15	30	2	3	1	92	238	103	342	11	135	29	14	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	17	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Red	—	105	87	8	1	0	0	15	30	2	3	1	92	238	103	342	11	135	29	14	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	19	MLB MLE	—	0%	215	190	38	6	1	1	21	61	2	3	1	203	289	269	558	66	288	28	10	260	62	-10	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	20	MLB MLE	—	34%	74	66	13	2	0	1	7	21	1	1	0	207	294	282	576	75	290	28	9	267	67	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	21	MLB MLE	—	50%	168	148	31	5	1	2	16	46	2	2	1	211	298	294	592	83	291	27	10	273	71	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	22	MLB MLE	—	58%	278	246	53	9	2	3	27	76	3	3	1	214	300	305	605	90	292	27	10	278	74	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2031	23	MLB MLE	—	61%	374	330	71	12	2	5	36	101	5	4	1	217	303	314	617	97	293	27	10	282	77	-10	+0	+0	+4	+8	0.2
2032	24	MLB MLE	—	63%	437	387	85	14	3	7	42	116	5	5	2	220	305	322	627	102	294	27	10	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.4
2033	25	MLB MLE	—	65%	473	419	91	15	3	7	45	126	6	5	2	220	305	324	630	104	294	27	10	287	81	-11	+0	+0	+5	+10	0.5
2034	26	MLB MLE	—	65%	494	438	96	16	3	8	47	132	6	5	2	221	305	326	631	105	294	27	10	288	81	-11	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2035	27	MLB MLE	—	65%	501	442	97	16	3	8	48	134	6	5	2	220	304	323	628	104	293	27	10	287	80	-12	+0	+0	+5	+11	0.5
2036	28	MLB MLE	—	65%	501	442	97	16	3	8	48	135	6	5	2	218	303	319	621	101	292	27	10	284	78	-13	+0	-1	+5	+11	0.3
2037	29	MLB MLE	—	65%	493	438	95	16	3	7	47	135	5	5	3	216	300	313	613	97	291	27	10	280	76	-14	-0	-1	+5	+11	0.0
2028	20	MLB CTX	—	34%	25	23	4	1	0	0	2	7	0	0	0	207	294	282	576	75	290	28	8	267	67	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	21	MLB CTX	—	50%	84	75	17	3	1	1	8	23	1	1	0	211	298	294	592	83	291	27	10	273	71	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	22	MLB CTX	—	58%	160	142	30	5	1	2	15	44	2	2	1	214	300	305	605	90	292	28	9	278	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
2031	23	MLB CTX	—	61%	230	203	43	7	1	3	22	62	3	3	1	217	303	314	617	97	293	27	10	282	77	-6	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2032	24	MLB CTX	—	63%	276	245	54	9	2	4	26	74	3	3	1	220	305	322	627	102	294	27	9	286	80	-7	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	25	MLB CTX	—	65%	307	271	60	10	2	5	29	82	4	3	1	220	305	324	630	104	294	27	9	287	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2034	26	MLB CTX	—	65%	321	283	62	10	2	5	31	86	4	4	1	221	305	326	631	105	294	27	10	288	81	-7	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.4
2035	27	MLB CTX	—	65%	326	288	64	11	2	5	31	87	4	4	1	220	304	323	628	104	293	27	10	287	80	-8	+0	+0	+3	+7	0.3
2036	28	MLB CTX	—	65%	326	288	63	10	2	5	31	88	4	3	2	218	303	319	621	101	292	27	10	284	78	-8	-0	-0	+3	+7	0.2
2037	29	MLB CTX	—	65%	320	282	62	10	2	5	31	87	4	3	2	216	300	313	613	97	291	27	10	280	76	-9	-0	-1	+3	+7	0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2375	2100	459	76	15	35	226	640	29	26	10	219	303	319	622	100	295	27	10	284	76	-61	+1	-1	+25	+51	1.6
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	126	21	4	10	62	175	8	7	3	219	304	322	626	103	294	27	10	284	76	-17	+0	-0	+7	+14	0.4
Career	—	MLE		—	3935	3477	743	123	23	56	382	1063	47	43	17	214	300	311	611	97	289	27	10	281	76	-101	+2	-2	+41	+83	2.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	574	122	20	4	9	63	176	8	7	3	213	299	308	608	96	288	27	10	281	76	-17	+0	-0	+7	+14	0.4

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL Cubs Red · 105 PAwOBA .257 → .178 (−79)K% 22.9% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.86%	÷0.966	×1.220	—	—	28.86%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	20.95%	÷1.036	×0.700	—	×1.008	14.26%
HBP% /PA	1.90%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.34%
Singles /BIP	15.79%	÷0.981	×0.680	×1.029	×1.008	11.34%
Doubles /BIP	3.51%	÷1.012	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	2.15%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.150	×0.600	×1.029	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.876	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 96, 2B 102, 3B 130, K 93, BB 107 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.029.

Result: wOBA .257 → .178; ISO .025 → .016; BABIP .193 → .135. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
#2Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	/162	664	4	15	240*	300*	338*	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	/162	664	3	5	233*	291*	316*	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	3.6	2,412	35	26	219	300	319	+26	+21	3.2	3.1
	/162	664	10	7	219	300	319	+7.1	+5.8	0.9	pk7: 3
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Alexander Herrera

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps