Shinnosuke Ogasawara

P Harrisburg Senators

Age 29 LHP 5'11" / 205 lbs AA

Overview

AARPROOKIE

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	27	MIX4 levels	31	10	73	5.45	4.50	19.2%	8.5%	0.0	K 16.4% · BB 8.6% · FIP 4.77
2026	28	MIX2 levels	11	11	59	2.91	3.24	26.7%	6.2%	—	K 21.9% · BB 6.5% · FIP 3.96
2027PROJ	29	MLBWSH	10	10	62	4.94	5.10	17.2%	9.1%	-0.1
2028PROJ31% MLB	30	MLBWSH	3	3	18	5.08	5.23	17.1%	9.4%	-0.1
2029PROJ51% MLB	31	MLBWSH	5	5	28	5.24	5.39	16.8%	9.7%	-0.2

Last 2 seasons WAR 0.0 · Next 3 projected WAR -0.4Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025

Whiff%37

K%16

xwOBA vs14

FB Velo10

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsDanny Wirchansky (age 27) · Chris O'Grady (age 27) · Roy Merritt (age 30)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115123vR 132

ERA4.94

FIP5.10

K%17.2%

BB%9.1%

K-BB%8.1%

Proj IP62

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 62 IP

Grades · Statcast · Arsenal · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†4040

Statcast Percentiles

FB Velo

p1091.1

Whiff%

p3723.5%

p1617.3%

xwOBA vs

p140.355

SI (1%)

CU (19%)

CH (22%)

SL-3.7 (19%)

FB-4.2 (40%)

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	16.4%	8.6%	7.9%	3.6%	5.45	4.77	-0.2
2025	27	MIX MLE	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	16.4%	8.6%	7.9%	3.6%	5.45	4.77	-0.2
2025	27	MIX RAW	4 levels	31	10	73	318	61	27	11	32%	2.3	19.2%	8.5%	10.7%	3.5%	5.45	4.50	+0.0
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	59	240	64	15	7	100%	5.3	21.9%	6.5%	15.3%	3.4%	2.91	3.96	—
2026	28	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	11	59	240	64	15	7	100%	5.3	21.9%	6.5%	15.3%	3.4%	2.91	3.96	—
2026	28	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	11	59	240	64	15	7	100%	5.3	26.7%	6.2%	20.4%	2.9%	2.91	3.24	—
▸ Career totals (raw MLB only — as recorded)
MLB Career	—			23	2	39	173	30	17	9	9%	1.7	17.3%	9.8%	7.5%	5.2%	6.98	5.89	-0.6
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	29	MLB	WSH	10	10	62	262	45	24	9	100%	6.2	17.2%	9.1%	8.1%	3.5%	4.94	5.10	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	30	MLB MLE	WSH	10	10	58	246	42	23	9	100%	5.8	17.1%	9.4%	7.7%	3.7%	5.08	5.23	-0.2
2029	31	MLB MLE	WSH	9	9	54	230	39	22	9	100%	6.0	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.24	5.39	-0.3
2028	30	MLB CTX	WSH	3	3	18	76	13	7	3	100%	6.0	17.1%	9.4%	7.7%	3.7%	5.08	5.23	-0.1
2029	31	MLB CTX	WSH	5	5	28	118	20	12	5	100%	5.6	16.8%	9.7%	7.1%	3.8%	5.24	5.39	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	10	85	368	63	36	16	32%	2.7	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	4.4%	6.00	5.32	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		72	23	200	867	148	85	38	32%	2.8	17.1%	9.7%	7.4%	4.4%	6.00	5.32	-1.8
Career	—	MLE		42	21	131	558	105	43	20	50%	3.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.32	4.42	-1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		64	32	200	850	160	65	30	50%	3.1	18.8%	7.7%	11.1%	3.5%	4.32	4.42	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Shinnosuke Ogasawara (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.10	17.2%	9.1%	3.5%	—	5.31	17.0%	7.4%	113	+0.21	—	—	—
Danny Wirchansky L 2024 · 4.47 FIP	27	SP-	4.47	16.2%	7.4%	3.3%	.246	5.88	13.0%	0.2%	68	+1.41	4.47	179	75
Chris O'Grady L 2017 · 4.33 FIP	27	SP-	4.33	21.4%	9.0%	3.5%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	232	72
Roy Merritt L 2016 · 3.93 FIP	30	SP-	3.93	13.3%	5.9%	2.2%	.293	3.95	16.2%	10.4%	116	+0.02	3.93	129	70
John Anderson L 2016 · 4.23 FIP	27	SP-	4.23	14.3%	8.7%	2.2%	.367	—	—	—	—	—	4.12	235	69
Everett Teaford L 2012 · 5.47 FIP	28	SW	5.47	13.3%	8.0%	4.5%	.291	4.42	13.9%	6.3%	103	-1.05	4.42	208	68
Enrique Lechuga L 2015 · 4.70 FIP	29	SP-	4.70	10.0%	10.5%	2.0%	.354	3.78	10.5%	4.4%	59	-0.92	3.78	137	68
Tyler Alexander L 2021 · 5.27 FIP	29	SW	5.27	15.7%	10.7%	3.9%	.272	—	—	—	—	—	5.27	128	67
Brad Mills L 2014 · 5.61 FIP	29	SP-	5.61	18.8%	10.9%	5.0%	.364	5.00	14.5%	4.0%	182	-0.61	4.22	243	67
Onelki Garcia L 2017 · 4.02 FIP	27	SP-	4.02	16.5%	9.3%	2.1%	.328	—	—	—	—	—	2.99	164	66
Kelvin Marte L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	29	SW	4.74	16.1%	11.4%	2.8%	.300	5.25	12.0%	1.2%	71	+0.51	3.44	360	66
Chris Michalak L 2001 · 4.92 FIP	30	SP-	4.92	11.0%	8.2%	3.1%	.291	4.71	7.0%	-4.3%	14	-0.21	4.71	186	65
John Rheinecker L 2007 · 5.13 FIP	28	SW	5.13	16.7%	10.9%	3.8%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	121	65
Scott Downs L 2005 · 4.22 FIP	29	SP-	4.22	18.4%	8.4%	2.9%	.283	3.29	20.5%	12.9%	206	-0.93	2.68	748	65
Kyle Hart L 2022 · 5.24 FIP	29	SW	5.24	17.4%	9.9%	4.3%	.286	4.29	18.4%	9.5%	196	-0.95	3.60	886	65
Matt Lujan L 2017 · 4.69 FIP	28	SP-	4.69	14.3%	6.4%	3.6%	.348	—	—	—	—	—	4.06	227	65
Jack Snodgrass L 2016 · 5.01 FIP	28	SP-	5.01	15.7%	10.1%	3.6%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	4.66	118	65
Andrew Albers L 2015 · 4.13 FIP	29	SP-	4.13	12.4%	7.2%	2.1%	.354	3.51	17.9%	12.6%	303	-0.62	2.98	568	64
Brian Flynn L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	29	SW	4.49	17.7%	10.1%	2.9%	.333	—	—	—	—	—	3.80	295	64
Edgar Osuna L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	29	SP	5.05	10.6%	8.2%	3.3%	.345	5.09	10.0%	2.8%	83	+0.04	5.05	175	64
Carlos Teller L 2016 · 4.86 FIP	29	SP-	4.86	14.3%	10.7%	2.9%	.297	4.74	12.6%	1.1%	148	-0.12	3.75	333	63

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.1	53	17.1%	9.5%	1.53	5.42
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Scott Proctor ('11)	1.7	57	19.0%	10.9%	1.52	4.78
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Randy St. Claire ('84-'94, -0 WAR*)	1.3	50	19.0%*	8.4%*	1.39*	4.61*
Steve Kealey ('68-'73, -1 WAR*)	1.1	54	18.5%*	7.2%*	1.32*	5.26*
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*