Johan Fernandez — OGILVIE

Johan FernandezC ACL D-backs

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK HR +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION42 act + 29 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .241 / .222

PA29

HR0

K%31

BB%7

BABIP278

ISO37

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.1	$5M	+$4M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$20M	+$18M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	45	6	3	0	0	5	16	3	0	1	133	264	200	464	67	207	30	9	211	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	43	8	4	0	0	7	11	3	0	1	186	340	279	619	93	250	20	13	293	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	68	11	1	0	2	5	28	2	1	0	162	240	265	505	103	237	37	7	215	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	65	16	2	0	3	8	17	2	1	0	246	347	415	762	169	289	22	11	340	118	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	ARI	—	42	38	6	1	0	0	4	20	0	0	0	158	238	184	422	26	333	48	10	178	-6	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
YTD	19	ROK	ARI	—	42	36	8	1	0	0	6	14	0	0	0	222	333	250	583	28	364	33	14	281	73	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.1
ROS	19	ROK	ARI	0%	29	27	5	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	185	241	222	464	37	292	31	7	252	51	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	ARI	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		294	—	—	245	46	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	ARI	—	42	39	6	1	0	0	4	20	0	0	0	154	238	179	418	26	316	48	10	178	-6	-5	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.3
TOT	19	ROK	ARI	—	71	65	11	2	0	0	6	29	0	0	0	169	239	200	439	31	306	41	8	208	18	-7	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.3
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	ARI	34%	162	147	31	6	1	2	12	50	2	1	1	211	280	306	586	95	292	31	7	263	59	-7	-0	+0	+3	+5	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	ARI	48%	303	273	59	11	2	5	23	91	4	3	1	216	287	326	613	110	293	30	8	272	66	-12	+0	+0	+5	+9	0.3
2029	22	MLB	ARI	54%	407	366	78	14	2	7	32	120	6	4	1	213	287	320	607	107	294	29	8	278	71	-14	+0	+0	+7	+12	0.6
2030	23	MLB	ARI	57%	476	430	92	17	2	9	37	139	6	4	1	214	285	326	611	112	295	29	8	281	73	-14	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.8
2031	24	MLB	ARI	57%	520	467	102	19	3	10	41	151	7	5	2	218	291	336	627	118	296	29	8	284	75	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2032	25	MLB	ARI	57%	520	467	103	19	3	11	41	151	7	5	2	221	293	345	638	124	296	29	8	285	76	-14	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2033	26	MLB	ARI	56%	520	467	103	19	3	11	41	151	7	5	2	221	293	345	638	124	296	29	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2034	27	MLB	ARI	55%	520	466	103	19	3	11	42	151	7	5	2	221	295	345	641	124	295	29	8	286	77	-13	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.1
2035	28	MLB	ARI	55%	520	466	102	18	3	11	42	152	7	4	2	219	293	341	634	122	295	29	8	285	76	-14	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2027	20	MLB	ARI	34%	56	51	10	2	0	1	4	17	1	0	0	196	268	294	562	98	294	30	7	255	54	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	ARI	48%	147	133	28	5	1	2	11	44	2	1	0	211	281	308	589	98	295	30	7	264	60	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2029	22	MLB	ARI	54%	221	199	43	8	1	4	17	65	3	2	1	216	288	327	614	111	296	29	8	270	65	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2030	23	MLB	ARI	57%	269	242	53	10	1	5	21	78	4	2	1	219	292	331	623	112	297	29	8	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	24	MLB	ARI	57%	294	265	59	11	2	6	23	86	4	3	1	223	295	347	642	125	298	29	8	276	69	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	25	MLB	ARI	57%	294	265	59	11	2	6	23	85	4	3	1	223	295	347	642	125	298	29	8	277	70	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2033	26	MLB	ARI	56%	294	265	58	11	1	6	23	85	4	3	1	219	291	336	627	117	298	29	8	278	71	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2034	27	MLB	ARI	55%	288	259	56	10	1	6	23	84	4	3	1	216	290	332	622	116	298	29	8	278	71	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	28	MLB	ARI	55%	285	256	55	10	1	6	23	83	4	2	1	215	290	332	622	117	297	29	8	277	70	-10	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2148	1936	421	78	10	42	168	627	30	19	7	217	290	333	623	116	297	29	8	275	68	-77	+1	-0	+38	+61	2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	586	128	24	3	13	51	190	9	6	2	218	291	336	627	118	299	29	8	275	68	-23	+0	-0	+12	+18	0.7
Career	—			—	4107	3689	795	147	22	79	323	1209	58	37	15	216	289	332	620	116	296	29	8	280	72	-129	+1	-1	+73	+116	6.2
/ 162G	—			—	650	584	126	23	3	13	51	191	9	6	2	216	288	332	621	116	295	29	8	280	72	-20	+0	-0	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	43	8	4	0	0	7	11	3	0	1	186	340	279	619	93	250	20	13	293	83	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.0
2025	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	65	16	2	0	3	8	17	2	1	0	246	347	415	762	169	289	22	11	340	118	+2	+0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#5Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	6	2,219	43	20	218	288	334	+40	+24	3.9	3.8
	/162	664	13	6	218	288	334	+11.9	+7.2	1.2	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Fernandez (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	169/239/200	31	306	0	0	41%	8%	18	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→40	42→55	47→50	39	203/257/313	110	287	8	5	31%	6%	55	-1.4	192/232/317	125	275	12	5	34%	4%	45	-2.1	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Rey Duran 2008 · A	19	41	39→50	49→40	44	194/268/278	84	288	7	6	33%	8%	51	-1.7	201/256/316	115	261	13	5	27%	6%	56	-1.3	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	48→45	38	194/251/289	95	288	8	7	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/259/275	78	321	4	8	37%	7%	46	-2.0	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	43→45	49→40	40	193/254/304	111	268	10	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	201/260/303	102	309	9	3	36%	6%	54	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Jason Lopez 2017 · A	19	40	38→55	49→45	43	195/258/270	75	266	5	11	28%	7%	44	-2.1	205/253/318	113	280	11	7	30%	5%	55	-1.4	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2022 · A	19	42→41	39→55	47→50	50	201/285/293	92	282	6	8	29%	10%	63	-0.9	187/257/303	116	284	10	9	35%	7%	53	-1.5	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Joe DeCarlo 2013 · A	19	39→37	41→55	43→30	45	190/272/291	102	269	8	3	30%	8%	57	-1.2	186/266/288	102	300	9	2	38%	8%	54	-1.4	194/273/355	161	262	20	1	33%	8%	70	-0.2
✕Adrian De Leon 2023 · A	19	42	38→40	47→45	43	199/271/276	78	287	5	7	30%	8%	53	-1.5	193/290/269	76	317	6	5	37%	9%	60	-1.0	155/264/219	64	269	6	3	39%	10%	36	-1.1
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Alexander Mojica 2022 · A	19	39	41→45	47→40	41	194/262/289	96	287	9	4	34%	7%	52	-1.6	185/266/295	110	307	11	4	40%	9%	56	-1.3	155/253/274	119	262	13	2	42%	10%	42	-0.8
✕Luis Vázquez 2019 · A	19	40→46	36→50	49→45	39	193/237/259	66	276	3	8	30%	5%	32	-3.0	204/249/275	71	283	5	10	28%	5%	41	-2.3	232/296/366	134	301	16	8	27%	6%	83	+0.3
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Isan Díaz 2015 · A	19	34→42	39→55	47→45	39	169/233/258	89	267	6	8	37%	7%	31	-3.0	206/271/341	135	300	13	8	33%	8%	69	-0.4	208/287/373	164	275	21	5	31%	9%	79	+0.2
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	40→45	41→55	46→55	40	199/248/293	95	266	8	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	209/269/336	127	287	13	8	30%	7%	66	-0.6	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Miguel Jerez 2017 · A	19	39	37→60	46→40	45	187/259/260	73	269	4	7	30%	8%	43	-2.2	175/236/285	110	277	12	4	39%	6%	40	-2.4	137/211/276	139	200	19	1	42%	7%	26	-1.3
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	43	40→50	44→50	40	207/266/301	93	288	7	6	30%	6%	56	-1.3	208/270/342	134	271	16	6	29%	6%	69	-0.4	202/266/343	141	256	19	5	29%	6%	65	-0.6