Johan Fernandez

C ACL D-backs

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 180 lbs ROK HR -11% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1398ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Arizona B…	54	.186/.340/.279	0	0	24	—	.133/.264/.200
2025	18	ROKDSL Arizona R…	76	.246/.347/.415	3	1	22	—	.134/.227/.194
2026	19	ROKARI	58	.261/.414/.304	0	0	42	—	.160/.276/.180
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBARI	168	.204/.276/.282	1	2	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBARI	31	.214/.287/.309	0	0	65	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBARI	89	.218/.291/.320	1	1	70	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

BB%74

wRC+55

wOBA45

Chase%40

K%20

ISO12

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.202 / .274 / .280

PA37

HR0

K%29

BB%8

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$13M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	43	8	4	0	0	7	11	3	0	1	186	340	279	619	93	250	20	13	293	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	65	16	2	0	3	8	17	2	1	0	246	347	415	762	169	289	22	11	340	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	ACL D-backs	—	58	46	12	2	0	0	11	17	1	0	0	261	414	304	718	43	414	29	19	345	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	45	6	3	0	0	5	13	3	0	1	133	264	200	464	67	165	24	9	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	67	9	1	0	1	6	22	2	1	0	134	227	194	421	60	184	29	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	58	50	8	1	0	0	7	24	1	0	0	160	276	180	456	20	335	41	12	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	45	6	3	0	0	5	13	3	0	1	133	264	200	464	67	188	24	9	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	43	8	4	0	0	7	11	3	0	1	186	340	279	619	93	250	20	13	293	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	67	9	1	0	1	6	22	2	1	0	134	227	194	421	60	182	29	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	65	16	2	0	3	8	17	2	1	0	246	347	415	762	169	289	22	11	340	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	58	50	8	1	0	0	7	24	1	0	0	160	276	180	456	20	308	41	12	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	—	58	46	12	2	0	0	11	17	1	0	0	261	414	304	718	43	414	29	19	345	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	46	6	3	0	0	5	13	3	0	1	130	264	196	460	65	165	24	9	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	68	9	1	0	1	6	22	2	1	0	132	227	191	418	59	184	29	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	58	50	8	1	0	0	7	24	1	0	0	160	276	180	456	20	335	41	12	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	—	54	46	6	3	0	0	5	13	3	0	1	130	264	196	460	65	165	24	9	203	24	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Red	—	76	68	9	1	0	1	6	22	2	1	0	132	227	191	418	59	184	29	8	201	22	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	—	58	50	8	1	0	0	7	24	1	0	0	160	276	180	456	20	335	41	12	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	ARI	0%	168	151	31	6	1	1	13	49	2	2	1	204	276	282	559	79	288	29	8	257	60	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	ARI	34%	92	84	18	3	1	1	7	27	1	1	0	208	282	297	578	89	289	29	8	265	65	-4	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	ARI	50%	178	159	33	6	1	2	14	51	3	2	1	212	286	309	595	97	290	29	8	271	70	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2030	23	MLB MLE	ARI	58%	274	246	54	10	2	4	22	77	4	3	1	216	289	320	609	104	291	28	8	277	73	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	ARI	61%	356	320	70	13	2	6	28	99	5	4	1	219	292	329	621	110	292	28	8	281	77	-10	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.5
2032	25	MLB MLE	ARI	63%	402	361	79	14	2	8	32	110	6	4	2	221	294	336	630	115	293	27	8	285	79	-10	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.6
2033	26	MLB MLE	ARI	64%	430	387	84	15	2	8	34	118	6	4	2	221	295	338	632	117	292	27	8	286	80	-10	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.7
2034	27	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	441	397	87	16	2	8	35	121	6	4	2	220	294	335	629	115	292	27	8	284	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+10	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	443	399	87	16	2	8	35	123	6	2	2	218	291	330	622	112	291	28	8	282	77	-12	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	ARI	65%	436	392	84	15	2	8	35	122	6	1	1	215	289	324	613	109	289	28	8	278	74	-13	-0	-1	+8	+9	0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	ARI	34%	31	29	5	1	0	0	2	9	0	0	0	214	287	309	596	94	299	29	6	272	65	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	ARI	50%	89	81	17	3	1	1	7	25	1	1	0	218	291	320	612	102	300	28	8	278	70	-3	+0	+0	+2	+2	0.1
2030	23	MLB CTX	ARI	58%	158	143	31	6	1	2	12	44	2	2	1	222	295	331	625	109	301	28	8	283	73	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	ARI	61%	217	195	44	9	1	4	17	60	3	2	1	225	298	339	637	115	302	28	8	288	77	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2032	25	MLB CTX	ARI	63%	252	227	51	10	2	4	20	69	3	2	1	227	300	346	646	120	303	27	8	291	79	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.4
2033	26	MLB CTX	ARI	64%	274	246	56	11	2	5	22	75	4	3	1	227	300	348	648	121	302	27	8	292	80	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	287	258	59	12	2	5	23	79	4	2	1	226	299	345	644	120	302	28	8	291	79	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	288	259	58	11	2	5	23	80	4	2	1	224	297	341	637	117	300	28	8	288	77	-8	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	ARI	65%	283	255	57	11	2	5	22	79	4	1	1	221	294	334	628	113	299	28	8	284	74	-9	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1879	1693	378	74	13	31	148	520	25	15	7	223	295	337	633	114	302	28	8	288	73	-53	+0	-1	+34	+41	2.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	586	131	26	4	11	51	180	9	5	2	224	296	338	634	114	302	28	8	288	73	-18	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.7
Career	—	MLE		—	3277	2940	625	114	16	54	263	918	50	26	13	213	288	317	606	105	288	28	8	277	73	-88	+0	-2	+55	+67	3.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	124	23	3	11	52	182	10	5	3	213	288	319	607	106	288	28	8	277	73	-19	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.7

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKACL D-backs · 58 PAwOBA .338 → .231 (−107)K% 29.3% → 42.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	29.31%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	42.21%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.97%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×1.008	11.85%
HBP% /PA	1.72%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	1.25%
Singles /BIP	34.48%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×1.008	28.49%
Doubles /BIP	6.90%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.008	5.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .338 → .231; ISO .043 → .028; BABIP .414 → .335. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Arizona Red · 76 PAwOBA .331 → .201 (−129)K% 22.4% → 28.9%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.37%	÷0.944	×1.220	—	—	28.91%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.53%	÷0.986	×0.700	—	×1.008	7.53%
HBP% /PA	2.63%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	1.86%
Singles /BIP	22.92%	÷1.013	×0.680	×0.984	×1.008	15.25%
Doubles /BIP	4.17%	÷0.922	×0.600	×0.984	×1.008	2.69%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.134	×0.600	×0.984	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.25%	÷1.121	×0.470	—	×1.008	2.64%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 124, 1B 103, 2B 84, 3B 127, K 89, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.984.

Result: wOBA .331 → .201; ISO .169 → .077; BABIP .289 → .184. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Arizona Black · 54 PAwOBA .287 → .203 (−84)K% 20.4% → 24.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	20.37%	÷1.009	×1.220	—	—	24.63%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	12.96%	÷0.957	×0.700	—	×1.022	9.69%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.700	—	×1.022	3.98%
Singles /BIP	12.50%	÷1.015	×0.680	—	×1.022	8.56%
Doubles /BIP	12.50%	÷0.966	×0.600	—	×1.022	7.94%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.986	×0.600	—	×1.022	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.899	×0.470	—	×1.022	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 80, 1B 103, 2B 93, 3B 97, K 102, BB 91 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .287 → .203; ISO .093 → .061; BABIP .250 → .165. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	12	0	229	310	340	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	/162	664	7	1	231*	283*	340*	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.9	1,917	34	15	219	289	330	+34	+24	3.5	3.4
	/162	664	12	5	219	289	330	+11.9	+8.3	1.2	pk7: 3
#6Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2

Johan Fernandez

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps