Cade Vernon
P
Eugene Emeralds
+0.2
WAR
Age 24
RHP
6'2" / 211 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.35
FIP4.35
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%12.4%
IP56
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5055
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23 | A | San Jose Giants | 36 | 0 | 56 | 220 | 43 | 15 | 3 | 14.5% | 8.0% | 1.3% | 1.60 | 3.58 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 24 | A+ | Eugene Emeralds | 3 | 0 | 6 | 29 | 4 | 4 | 1 | — | — | — | 6.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 24 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 238 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.35 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 24 | MLB | SF | — | — | 62 | 267 | 55 | 25 | 8 | 20.5% | 9.4% | 2.9% | 4.51 | 3.93 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 25 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 21.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.28 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 26 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 241 | 54 | 21 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.26 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 27 | MLB | SF | 57 | — | 57 | 239 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.27 | 4.27 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 28 | MLB | SF | 56 | — | 56 | 236 | 53 | 21 | 7 | 22.3% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.29 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 29 | MLB | SF | 54 | — | 54 | 230 | 51 | 21 | 7 | 22.2% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.32 | 4.34 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 30 | MLB | SF | 53 | — | 53 | 223 | 49 | 20 | 7 | 22.0% | 9.0% | 3.0% | 4.37 | 4.40 | +0.3 |
| 2033 | 31 | MLB | SF | 51 | — | 51 | 215 | 47 | 20 | 7 | 21.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 4.43 | 4.48 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 32 | MLB | SF | 49 | — | 49 | 207 | 44 | 19 | 6 | 21.5% | 9.3% | 3.1% | 4.51 | 4.57 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 33 | MLB | SF | 47 | — | 47 | 198 | 42 | 19 | 6 | 21.2% | 9.5% | 3.2% | 4.60 | 4.66 | +0.2 |
| 2036 | 34 | MLB | SF | 44 | — | 44 | 188 | 39 | 18 | 6 | 20.8% | 9.7% | 3.3% | 4.70 | 4.77 | +0.1 |
| 2037 | 35 | MLB | SF | 42 | — | 42 | 177 | 36 | 18 | 6 | 20.4% | 9.9% | 3.4% | 4.82 | 4.90 | +0.0 |
| 2038 | 36 | MLB | SF | 39 | — | 39 | 166 | 33 | 17 | 6 | 20.0% | 10.2% | 3.6% | 4.94 | 5.03 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 0 | 62 | 249 | 36 | 22 | 4 | 14.4% | 8.7% | 1.5% | 2.02 | 3.82 | +0.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 125 | 0 | 200 | 799 | 116 | 71 | 13 | 14.4% | 8.7% | 1.5% | 2.02 | 3.82 | +3.4 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Cade Vernon (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.35 | 21.4% | 8.9% | 2.8% | — | 4.27 | 22.2% | 13.4% | 171 | -0.08 | — | — | — |
| Colby Morris R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.10 | 20.4% | 10.7% | 2.5% | .291 | 5.74 | 16.2% | 4.4% | 54 | +1.64 | 4.10 | 105 | 95 |
| Alex Palsha R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.86 | 20.6% | 10.4% | 2.2% | .288 | 3.83 | 15.3% | 4.4% | 77 | -0.03 | 3.40 | 134 | 93 |
| Ricky Castro R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.02 | 20.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | .287 | 4.87 | 18.2% | 10.0% | 95 | +0.85 | 4.02 | 158 | 93 |
| Austin Ross R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 20.7% | 9.6% | 3.4% | .281 | 5.22 | 21.2% | 5.7% | 55 | +0.80 | 4.42 | 121 | 93 |
| Danny Kirwin R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.16 | 17.9% | 9.9% | 2.4% | .262 | 4.19 | 16.8% | 7.5% | 66 | +0.03 | 4.16 | 135 | 93 |
| Shohei Tomioka R 2027 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 18.9% | 9.0% | 2.5% | .311 | 4.41 | 17.3% | 3.8% | 141 | +0.42 | 3.65 | 255 | 92 |
| Bryan Pope R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 19.4% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .332 | 5.16 | 12.7% | -0.3% | 22 | +1.20 | 3.96 | 148 | 92 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.87 | 17.8% | 9.8% | 1.9% | .309 | 3.25 | 24.8% | 15.5% | 104 | -0.62 | 2.78 | 312 | 91 |
| Brett McKinney R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.75 | 17.1% | 8.9% | 3.6% | .335 | 3.98 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 129 | -0.77 | 3.43 | 183 | 90 |
| Landon Beck R 2026 · 3.92 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.92 | 18.6% | 8.6% | 2.4% | .309 | 4.26 | 17.4% | 8.7% | 63 | +0.34 | 3.52 | 186 | 90 |
| Stephen Villines R 2026 · 3.96 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.96 | 16.8% | 8.5% | 2.2% | .280 | 3.13 | 20.6% | 14.7% | 40 | -0.83 | 2.14 | 156 | 90 |
| Matt Pierpont R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.25 | 17.8% | 7.1% | 3.2% | .295 | 3.25 | 21.7% | 13.8% | 190 | -1.00 | 2.79 | 280 | 90 |
| David Griffin R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.42 | 19.2% | 11.9% | 2.6% | .279 | 5.32 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 168 | +0.90 | 4.42 | 239 | 89 |
| Rob Griswold R 2026 · 4.52 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.52 | 16.8% | 8.3% | 3.3% | .244 | 4.35 | 12.5% | 6.2% | 144 | -0.17 | 3.57 | 203 | 89 |
| Max Alba R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.50 | 20.6% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .290 | 4.91 | 17.8% | 11.6% | 162 | +0.41 | 4.50 | 217 | 89 |
| Alex Hermeling R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 24 | SW | 3.99 | 16.5% | 8.1% | 2.3% | .270 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.69 | 127 | 89 |
| Mick VanVossen R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 8.9% | 2.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 141 | 89 |
| Tai Tiedemann R 2025 · 3.84 FIP | 23 | SW | 3.84 | 17.5% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .305 | 5.79 | 9.8% | -0.2% | 118 | +1.95 | 3.84 | 190 | 89 |
| Brian Glowicki R 2026 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.42 | 16.4% | 8.3% | 3.0% | .275 | 3.92 | 26.0% | 14.1% | 62 | -0.50 | 2.30 | 189 | 89 |
| Andrew Bellatti R 2025 · 4.32 FIP | 23 | SW | 4.32 | 19.3% | 8.8% | 3.2% | .288 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.72 | 278 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.2M | +0.3 | $1M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $7M | +0.2 | $1M | -$6M |
| Totals | $11M | $9M | -$2M | ||
Why some years run red
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.
On long-term deals the salary is locked in regardless of how the player ages. Late years are red whenever projected production drops below the AAV — that's expected, not a sign the deal is bad. The honest scorecard is the Net Surplus over the whole contract, not any single year.