Cade Vernon — OGILVIE

Cade Vernon P Eugene Emeralds

Age 24 RHP 6'2" / 211 lbs A+ peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION76 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.05

FIP5.05

K%13.4%

BB%9.2%

K-BB%4.3%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL5050

CMD4040

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	36	0	56	220	43	15	3	0%	1.6	14.5%	8.0%	6.4%	1.3%	1.60	3.61	—
2025	23	A MLE	San Jose Giants	36	0	56	220	43	15	3	0%	1.6	14.5%	8.0%	6.4%	1.3%	1.60	3.61	—
2025	23	A RAW	San Jose Giants	36	0	56	220	43	15	3	0%	1.6	19.5%	6.8%	12.7%	1.4%	1.60	3.06	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	7	76	346	41	36	5	23%	2.5	9.1%	12.0%	-2.8%	1.8%	4.52	4.84	—
YTD	24	A+ MLE	Eugene Emeralds	30	7	76	346	41	36	5	23%	2.5	9.1%	12.0%	-2.8%	1.8%	4.52	4.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	24	A+ RAW	SF	30	7	76	346	41	36	5	23%	2.5	11.8%	10.4%	1.4%	1.4%	4.52	4.21	—
ROS	24	MLB MLE	SF	5	0	6	24	3	2	1	0%	1.1	13.4%	9.2%	4.3%	2.8%	5.05	5.05	-0.0
2026 TOT	24	MLB MLE	SF	—	—	81	370	44	38	6	—	—	12.0%	10.3%	1.6%	1.5%	4.56	4.85	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	SF	71	0	75	317	49	29	9	0%	1.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.86	-0.3
2028	26	MLB MLE	SF	71	0	75	317	53	28	9	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.77	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	SF	70	0	74	312	53	28	9	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2030	28	MLB MLE	SF	68	0	72	303	51	28	9	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.3
2031	29	MLB MLE	SF	65	0	68	289	48	27	9	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	3.1%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
2032	30	MLB MLE	SF	61	0	64	272	45	27	9	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.07	5.17	-0.4
2027	25	MLB CTX	SF	30	0	32	135	21	12	4	0%	1.1	15.4%	9.0%	6.4%	2.8%	4.91	4.86	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	SF	48	0	50	211	35	19	6	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.0%	7.6%	2.8%	4.81	4.77	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	SF	54	0	57	241	41	22	7	0%	1.1	16.9%	9.1%	7.8%	2.9%	4.79	4.79	-0.2
2030	28	MLB CTX	SF	57	0	60	253	43	23	8	0%	1.1	17.0%	9.2%	7.7%	3.0%	4.82	4.86	-0.2
2031	29	MLB CTX	SF	57	0	60	253	42	24	8	0%	1.1	16.7%	9.4%	7.3%	3.1%	4.92	4.99	-0.3
2032	30	MLB CTX	SF	55	0	58	245	40	24	8	0%	1.1	16.4%	9.8%	6.6%	3.3%	5.07	5.17	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		302	0	317	1340	222	124	40	0%	1.1	16.6%	9.3%	7.3%	3.0%	4.89	4.53	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	140	78	25	0%	1.0	16.6%	9.3%	7.3%	3.0%	4.89	4.53	+0.0
Career	—	MLE		66	7	132	566	63	59	9	11%	2.0	11.2%	10.4%	0.8%	1.6%	3.27	4.36	-1.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	11	200	858	96	90	14	11%	2.0	11.2%	10.4%	0.8%	1.6%	3.27	4.36	-0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cade Vernon (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.05	13.4%	9.2%	2.8%	—	4.81	16.3%	7.3%	224	-0.24	—	—	—
David Reid-Foley R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	24	SU	4.68	13.8%	8.8%	3.0%	.308	6.54	16.2%	7.6%	33	+1.86	4.68	110	91
Mark Peterson R 2015 · 4.89 FIP	24	SU	4.89	11.5%	8.5%	3.1%	.277	4.71	15.9%	5.6%	112	-0.18	4.65	185	90
Devin Burke R 2015 · 4.27 FIP	24	SU	4.27	11.7%	7.0%	2.3%	.275	4.20	13.7%	8.8%	87	-0.07	4.20	149	90
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	90
Aaron Northcraft R 2015 · 4.37 FIP	25	SW	4.37	13.6%	10.2%	2.1%	.286	4.19	16.1%	7.8%	91	-0.18	3.32	252	89
Troy Neiman R 2015 · 4.54 FIP	24	SU	4.54	13.1%	8.5%	2.7%	.287	4.47	19.7%	11.7%	135	-0.07	4.03	199	89
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	88
Robbie Aviles R 2016 · 4.69 FIP	24	SU	4.69	11.5%	8.7%	2.6%	.343	3.63	12.2%	6.5%	58	-1.06	3.63	172	87
Pedro Echemendia R 2016 · 4.79 FIP	25	SU	4.79	15.0%	8.0%	3.5%	.286	4.31	11.0%	5.9%	72	-0.48	4.31	141	87
Tyler Barnette R 2016 · 4.46 FIP	24	SW	4.46	13.0%	10.0%	2.2%	.333	3.99	10.7%	-3.5%	13	-0.47	3.57	173	86
Raul Fernandez R 2015 · 4.03 FIP	25	SU	4.03	14.2%	9.4%	1.7%	.285	4.79	16.1%	5.0%	103	+0.76	4.03	165	86
Alejandro Barraza R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	24	SU	4.31	13.2%	8.3%	2.3%	.291	4.64	13.1%	4.7%	93	+0.33	3.27	174	86
Madison Younginer IV R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	24	SU	3.86	14.3%	8.8%	1.6%	.254	3.88	20.3%	8.8%	145	+0.02	3.08	219	85
Reece Karalus R 2018 · 4.73 FIP	24	SU	4.73	15.4%	11.9%	2.6%	.299	—	—	—	—	—	4.73	149	85
Zach Nuding R 2015 · 4.76 FIP	25	SU	4.76	12.5%	10.5%	2.5%	.236	5.03	12.6%	3.3%	106	+0.27	4.76	146	85
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	84
Robert Kwiatkowski R 2021 · 4.12 FIP	24	SU	4.12	9.6%	7.9%	1.5%	.277	4.35	16.2%	6.7%	164	+0.23	4.03	254	84
Trey Cochran-Gill R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.3%	7.9%	2.4%	.294	4.61	14.5%	4.4%	112	+0.52	3.51	258	84
David Berg R 2017 · 4.57 FIP	24	SU	4.57	14.1%	8.1%	3.0%	.293	—	—	—	—	—	2.41	123	84
Josh Uhen R 2016 · 4.09 FIP	24	SU	4.09	16.1%	9.7%	2.0%	.303	4.02	15.6%	1.2%	82	-0.07	3.17	185	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.5	71	16.1%	9.2%	1.15	4.91
Robert Gsellman ('21)	1.7	67	18.4%	7.8%	0.96	4.38
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Joe Biagini ('19)	1.6	81	19.1%	7.8%	1.28	4.86
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Alex Young ('23)	1.3	52	19.5%	8.6%	1.61	4.43