Marwin Rivero

SS DSL Royals Ventura

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -15%K -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1565ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	121	.191/.367/.213	0	13	26	—	.129/.267/.139
2025	18	ROKDSL Royals Fo…	36	.172/.333/.207	0	6	9	—	.133/.278/.167
2026	19	ROKDSL Royals Ve…	83	.243/.329/.300	0	7	17	—	.178/.241/.219
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBKC	193	.207/.281/.274	1	5	59	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBKC	34	.210/.284/.287	0	1	65	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBKC	94	.214/.288/.300	1	2	70	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

K%67

Whiff%55

Chase%52

Speed51

Z-Con%43

ISO19

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 46 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.205 / .278 / .271

PA46

HR0

K%27

BB%8

ISO67

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2036	Arb-1	$1M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	94	18	2	0	0	22	29	4	13	4	191	367	213	579	21	277	24	18	292	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	29	5	1	0	0	5	8	2	6	1	172	333	207	540	34	238	22	14	274	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	70	17	4	0	0	9	15	0	7	1	243	329	300	629	57	304	18	11	279	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	101	13	1	0	0	15	35	4	13	4	129	267	139	405	10	196	29	12	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	30	4	1	0	0	4	10	2	6	1	133	278	167	444	33	148	28	11	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	73	13	3	0	0	6	18	0	7	1	178	241	219	460	41	204	22	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	101	13	1	0	0	15	35	4	13	4	129	267	139	405	10	197	29	12	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	94	18	2	0	0	22	29	4	13	4	191	367	213	579	21	277	24	18	292	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	30	4	1	0	0	4	10	2	6	1	133	278	167	444	33	200	28	11	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	29	5	1	0	0	5	8	2	6	1	172	333	207	540	34	238	22	14	274	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	73	13	3	0	0	6	18	0	7	1	178	241	219	460	41	232	22	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	70	17	4	0	0	9	15	0	7	1	243	329	300	629	57	304	18	11	279	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	101	13	1	0	0	15	35	4	13	4	129	267	139	405	10	196	29	12	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	30	4	1	0	0	4	10	2	6	1	133	278	167	444	33	148	28	11	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	77	13	3	0	0	6	18	0	7	1	169	241	208	448	39	204	22	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	121	101	13	1	0	0	15	35	4	13	4	129	267	139	405	10	196	29	12	206	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Fortuna	—	36	30	4	1	0	0	4	10	2	6	1	133	278	167	444	33	148	28	11	181	9	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	DSL Royals Ventura	—	83	77	13	3	0	0	6	18	0	7	1	169	241	208	448	39	204	22	7	194	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	KC	0%	193	174	36	6	1	1	15	52	2	5	1	207	281	274	554	67	286	27	8	256	59	-9	+1	+0	+2	+4	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	KC	34%	101	91	20	3	1	1	8	27	1	3	0	212	286	290	576	79	288	27	8	265	65	-4	+1	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	KC	50%	189	170	36	6	1	2	15	50	2	5	1	216	290	305	595	89	289	26	8	272	70	-7	+1	+0	+2	+4	-0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	KC	58%	285	256	56	9	2	4	23	75	4	7	1	219	294	317	610	97	290	26	8	278	74	-9	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	KC	61%	364	326	73	12	2	6	30	94	5	9	1	223	297	327	624	105	291	26	8	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+4	+8	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	KC	63%	408	366	82	14	2	7	34	105	5	10	2	225	299	335	634	111	291	26	8	287	80	-10	+1	+0	+4	+9	0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	KC	64%	435	391	88	15	2	8	36	112	5	11	2	225	299	338	638	113	291	26	8	288	81	-10	+1	+0	+5	+9	0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	KC	65%	445	400	89	15	2	8	37	115	5	11	2	224	298	336	634	112	291	26	8	287	80	-10	+1	+0	+5	+10	0.6
2035	28	MLB MLE	KC	65%	446	401	89	15	2	8	37	117	5	10	2	223	296	331	628	109	290	26	8	284	79	-11	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	KC	65%	439	395	87	14	2	8	36	116	5	10	2	220	294	325	619	105	289	26	8	281	76	-12	+1	-1	+5	+10	0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	KC	34%	34	31	6	1	0	0	3	9	0	1	0	210	284	287	571	77	286	26	9	263	65	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	KC	50%	94	85	18	3	1	1	8	25	1	2	0	214	288	300	589	86	287	27	9	269	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	KC	58%	164	148	32	5	1	2	13	43	2	4	1	217	292	312	603	94	288	26	8	275	74	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	KC	61%	222	199	43	7	1	3	18	58	3	5	1	220	295	321	616	101	289	26	8	280	78	-6	+1	+0	+2	+5	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	KC	63%	256	230	52	9	2	4	21	66	3	6	1	222	296	329	625	107	289	26	8	284	80	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	KC	64%	277	249	56	9	2	5	23	71	3	7	1	223	297	332	629	109	289	26	8	285	81	-6	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	KC	65%	289	260	58	10	2	5	24	75	3	7	1	222	296	329	625	108	289	26	8	284	80	-7	+1	+0	+3	+6	0.4
2035	28	MLB CTX	KC	65%	290	261	58	10	2	5	24	76	3	7	1	220	294	325	619	105	288	26	8	281	79	-7	+1	-0	+3	+6	0.3
2036	29	MLB CTX	KC	65%	285	257	56	9	2	5	23	75	3	6	1	218	291	319	611	101	287	26	8	278	76	-8	+1	-1	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1911	1720	379	63	13	30	157	498	21	45	7	220	293	324	618	104	291	26	8	280	73	-50	+6	-1	+20	+41	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	585	128	21	4	10	53	169	7	15	2	219	291	320	611	101	289	26	8	280	73	-17	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3398	3041	658	109	16	52	285	887	44	103	19	216	293	314	607	98	286	26	8	277	73	-85	+10	-2	+34	+68	2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	126	21	3	10	55	170	8	20	4	216	293	314	607	98	286	26	8	277	73	-17	+2	-0	+7	+14	0.5

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 DSLDSL Royals Ventura · 83 PAwOBA .276 → .194 (−82)K% 18.1% → 22.0%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	18.07%	÷1.000	×1.220	—	—	22.05%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	10.84%	÷1.000	×0.700	—	×0.985	7.48%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.700	—	×0.985	0.00%
Singles /BIP	23.64%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.032	×0.985	16.34%
Doubles /BIP	7.27%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.032	×0.985	4.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.032	×0.985	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.470	—	×0.985	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 18.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.032.

Result: wOBA .276 → .194; ISO .057 → .037; BABIP .304 → .204. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 DSLDSL Royals Fortuna · 36 PAwOBA .268 → .181 (−87)K% 22.2% → 26.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	22.22%	÷1.023	×1.220	—	—	26.49%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	13.89%	÷0.974	×0.700	—	×0.995	9.93%
HBP% /PA	5.56%	—	×0.700	—	×0.995	3.87%
Singles /BIP	19.05%	÷1.083	×0.680	—	×0.995	11.90%
Doubles /BIP	4.76%	÷0.965	×0.600	—	×0.995	2.95%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.023	×0.600	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷0.936	×0.470	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 87, 1B 117, 2B 93, 3B 105, K 105, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .268 → .181; ISO .034 → .022; BABIP .238 → .148. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Royals Fortuna · 121 PAwOBA .286 → .206 (−80)K% 24.0% → 28.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	23.97%	÷1.021	×1.220	—	—	28.64%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	18.18%	÷1.003	×0.700	—	×1.008	12.78%
HBP% /PA	3.31%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.33%
Singles /BIP	24.62%	÷1.002	×0.680	×1.050	×1.008	17.66%
Doubles /BIP	3.08%	÷1.015	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	1.92%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.600	×1.050	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.288	×0.470	—	×1.008	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 158, 1B 100, 2B 103, 3B 100, K 104, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .286 → .206; ISO .021 → .014; BABIP .277 → .196. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	5.1	3,369	19	74	240*	300*	338*	+36	+27	7.8	7.7
#2Jose Uribe'84-'93 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,369 PA	/162	664	4	15	240*	300*	338*	+7.1	+5.3	1.5	pk7: 8
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	4.7	3,095	15	22	233*	291*	316*	+32	+27	4.6	5.8
#3Gene Michael'66-'75 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,095 PA	/162	664	3	5	233*	291*	316*	+6.8	+5.8	1.0	pk7: 7
#4Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.0	1,959	33	47	223	294	329	+21	+18	3.0	3.0
	/162	664	11	16	223	294	329	+7.1	+6.1	1.0	pk7: 3
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	3.0	1,960	9	10	229*	288*	313*	+10	+27	2.7	2.7
#5Tim Cullen'66-'72 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,960 PA	/162	664	3	3	229*	288*	313*	+3.6	+9.1	0.9	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Marwin Rivero

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps