Dariel Arias

SS DSL CLE Mendoza
Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 152 lbs ROK HR -15%K -5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038
Overview
ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039
OGV OFP35OGV rank#1564ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202417ROKDSL CLE Mendo…114.204/.310/.255028—.139/.230/.178
202518ROKDSL CLE Mendo…106.202/.286/.23404-4—.134/.200/.155
2027PROJMLE20MLBPIT216.218/.280/.28814620.0
2028PROJ34% MLB21MLBPIT25.222/.286/.30201680.0
2029PROJ50% MLB22MLBPIT81.225/.290/.3141272-0.0
Next 3 projected WAR -0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk
Z-Con%93
Whiff%92
K%82
Speed47
Chase%42
BB%16
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 37 proj PA
wRC+†62
AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .278 / .285
PA37
HR0
K%24
BB%7
ISO70
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -1.7 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-2BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +0.8 runs (Replacement-level credit)+1REPTotal WAR: +0.00+0.0WAR
0.00.51.00.10.20.30.40.40.30.127282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus
Tools · Contract
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2033
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2038
First FA Year   2039
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M+0.4$1M+$0.5M
2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.4$0.9M+$0.5M
2035Pre-Arb$1.0M+0.3$0.7M+$0.2M
2036Arb-1$1M+0.1$0.2M+$0.0M (cut)
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $3M $3M +$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202417 ROKDSL CLE Mendoza — 11498 20310 12173 21 204310255565 51244 1511 268 8 — — — — — —
202518 ROKDSL CLE Mendoza — 10694 19300 9162 41 202286234520 32241 158 246 -4 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 114101 14210 9213 21 139230178408 40161 188 180 8 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 10697 13200 6202 41 134200155355 21158 196 163 -4 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 114101 14210 9213 21 139230178408 40173 188 180 8 — — — — — —
202417 ROK RAWDSL CLE Mendoza — 11498 20310 12173 21 204310255565 51244 1511 268 8 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 10697 13200 6202 41 134200155355 21167 196 163 -4 — — — — — —
202518 ROK RAWDSL CLE Mendoza — 10694 19300 9162 41 202286234520 32241 158 246 -4 — — — — — —
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 114101 14210 9213 21 139230178408 40161 188 180 8 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 10697 13200 6202 41 134200155355 21158 196 163 -4 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202417 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 114101 14210 9213 21 139230178408 40161 188 180 8 — — — — — —
202518 ROK MLEDSL CLE Mendoza — 10697 13200 6202 41 134200155355 21158 196 163 -4 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202720 MLB MLEPIT 0% 216196 43721 15513 41 218280288568 70285 247 260 62 -10 +0 +0 +2 +5 0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202821 MLB MLEPIT 34% 7367 15211 5171 10 222286303589 81286 237 268 68 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.0
202922 MLB MLEPIT 50% 163149 33512 11382 31 225290316606 91287 237 275 72 -5 +0 +0 +2 +4 0.0
203023 MLB MLEPIT 58% 256233 53824 18603 52 228293327621 99289 237 281 76 -7 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.1
203124 MLB MLEPIT 61% 346314 731226 25804 72 231296337633 106290 237 286 79 -8 +1 +0 +4 +7 0.3
203225 MLB MLEPIT 63% 397360 831337 29925 83 233298344643 112290 237 289 82 -9 +0 +0 +4 +9 0.5
203326 MLB MLEPIT 64% 428389 911538 31995 93 233299347646 114290 237 291 83 -9 +1 +0 +5 +9 0.6
203427 MLB MLEPIT 65% 441401 931538 321035 93 232298345642 112290 237 289 82 -9 +1 +0 +5 +10 0.6
203528 MLB MLEPIT 65% 445404 931538 331055 93 230296340636 110289 247 287 80 -10 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.4
203629 MLB MLEPIT 65% 439399 901437 321045 93 228293334628 106288 247 283 78 -12 +1 -1 +5 +10 0.2
202821 MLB CTXPIT 34% 2523 5100 260 10 222286302588 80287 248 268 68 -1 +0 +0 +0 +1 0.0
202922 MLB CTXPIT 50% 8174 17311 6191 21 225290314604 89288 237 274 72 -3 +0 +0 +1 +2 -0.0
203023 MLB CTXPIT 58% 148134 31512 11342 31 228293325618 97289 237 280 76 -4 +0 +0 +2 +3 0.1
203124 MLB CTXPIT 61% 211191 43713 15493 51 230296334630 103290 237 284 79 -5 +1 +0 +2 +5 0.2
203225 MLB CTXPIT 63% 249226 53924 18583 52 232298341638 109291 237 288 82 -5 +0 +0 +3 +5 0.3
203326 MLB CTXPIT 64% 273248 581025 20633 62 232298343641 111290 237 289 83 -6 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.4
203427 MLB CTXPIT 65% 287261 601025 21673 62 231297341638 110290 237 288 82 -6 +0 +0 +3 +6 0.4
203528 MLB CTXPIT 65% 289263 611025 21683 62 230295337632 107289 247 285 80 -7 +0 -0 +3 +6 0.3
203629 MLB CTXPIT 65% 285259 591024 21683 62 228293331624 104288 247 282 78 -8 +0 -1 +3 +6 0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 18481679 387651329 13543221 4013 230296337632 106292 237 285 74 -44 +3 -1 +20 +40 1.7
/ 162G— A+C — 650591 13623510 471527 145 230294337631 107292 237 285 74 -16 +1 -0 +7 +14 0.6
Career— MLE — 32452948 6581042251 23474840 6722 223289325615 102280 237 278 74 -74 +4 -2 +32 +66 2.6
/ 162G— MLE — 650591 13121410 471508 134 222288321609 100279 237 278 74 -16 +1 -0 +7 +14 0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2025 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 106 PAwOBA .243 → .163 (−79)K% 15.1% → 18.8%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA15.09%÷0.981×1.220——18.77%
BB% (unintentional) /PA8.49%÷0.977×0.700—×0.9956.05%
HBP% /PA1.89%—×0.700—×0.9951.31%
Singles /BIP20.51%÷1.003×0.680×0.990×0.99513.71%
Doubles /BIP3.85%÷0.970×0.600×0.990×0.9952.34%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.991×0.600×0.990×0.9950.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.940×0.470—×0.9950.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 94, 3B 98, K 96, BB 95 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.

Result: wOBA .243 → .163; ISO .032 → .020; BABIP .241 → .158. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL CLE Mendoza · 114 PAwOBA .264 → .180 (−84)K% 14.9% → 18.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.91%÷0.987×1.220——18.44%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.53%÷0.986×0.700—×1.0087.53%
HBP% /PA2.63%—×0.700—×1.0081.86%
Singles /BIP19.75%÷0.995×0.680×0.997×1.00813.56%
Doubles /BIP3.70%÷1.091×0.600×0.997×1.0082.05%
Triples /BIP1.23%÷1.045×0.600×0.997×1.0080.71%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 99, 2B 118, 3B 109, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .264 → .180; ISO .051 → .029; BABIP .244 → .161. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).