Dariel Arias — OGILVIE

Dariel AriasSS DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 152 lbs ROK BB +7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 3.4 · 2034

wRC+†70

AVG/OBP/SLG.216 / .284 / .322

PA91

HR1

K%28

BB%8

MLB%0%

Scouting · now → future

HIT

50↗55

PWR

28↗33

SPD

47↗52

EYE

43↗48

trajectory · 10 yrs

3.4peak

2034

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+3.2	$31M	+$30M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.3	$32M	+$32M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+3.4	$34M	+$33M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$7M	+3.2	$33M	+$27M
2036	Ext / FA-deal	$10M	+3.0	$32M	+$22M
2037	Ext / FA-deal	$14M	+2.8	$31M	+$17M
Totals		$34M		$194M	+$160M

Career Projections (MLE)

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	114	102	16	2	1	0	8	25	3	2	1	.157	.239	.196	.435	.039	.205	22	7	.189	3	-13	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.8
2025	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	106	97	14	2	0	0	6	24	2	4	1	.144	.210	.165	.374	.021	.189	23	6	.178	-6	-13	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.8
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	PIT	91	83	18	3	1	1	7	25	1	2	0	.217	.286	.313	.599	.096	.291	27	8	.276	70	-3	+0	+0	+1	+3	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections — Projections at projected PA · Park-neutral MLB equivalent · Marcel + aging curve
2027	20	MLB 11%	PIT	181	161	38	7	1	4	16	47	2	4	1	.236	.313	.366	.679	.130	.300	26	9	.300	88	-2	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.5
2028	21	MLB 28%	PIT	318	282	68	12	2	8	29	79	4	7	2	.241	.321	.383	.704	.142	.301	25	9	.311	96	-1	+1	+0	+3	+9	1.2
2029	22	MLB 48%	PIT	418	370	91	16	3	11	40	101	5	9	2	.246	.328	.395	.722	.149	.302	24	10	.319	102	+1	+1	+0	+4	+12	1.9
2030	23	MLB 65%	PIT	484	428	104	18	3	13	47	114	6	10	2	.243	.326	.390	.717	.147	.303	24	10	.325	107	+4	+1	+0	+5	+14	2.4
2031	24	MLB 82%	PIT	528	463	115	20	3	15	53	123	7	11	2	.248	.335	.402	.736	.153	.303	23	10	.329	110	+6	+1	+0	+6	+15	2.9
2032	25	MLB	PIT	554	485	122	21	4	16	57	128	7	11	2	.252	.339	.410	.749	.159	.304	23	10	.333	113	+8	+1	+0	+6	+16	3.2
2033	26	MLB	PIT	568	497	125	21	4	17	59	131	7	12	2	.252	.339	.412	.752	.161	.304	23	10	.334	114	+9	+2	+0	+6	+16	3.3
2034	27	MLB	PIT	572	500	125	21	4	17	60	132	7	11	2	.250	.339	.410	.749	.160	.305	23	10	.335	114	+9	+1	+0	+6	+16	3.4
2035	28	MLB	PIT	570	497	125	21	4	17	61	133	7	11	2	.252	.342	.412	.754	.161	.304	23	11	.333	113	+9	+1	-1	+6	+16	3.2
2036	29	MLB	PIT	562	490	121	21	3	16	60	133	7	10	1	.247	.338	.400	.738	.153	.304	24	11	.331	112	+8	+2	-1	+6	+16	3.0
2037	30	MLB	PIT	553	482	118	20	3	16	59	132	7	10	1	.245	.336	.398	.734	.154	.303	24	11	.329	110	+6	+2	-2	+6	+16	2.8
2038	31	MLB	PIT	539	469	114	19	3	15	58	131	7	9	0	.243	.335	.392	.728	.149	.302	24	11	.325	107	+4	+2	-3	+6	+15	2.5
2039	32	MLB	PIT	521	454	109	18	3	14	56	130	6	8	0	.240	.331	.385	.717	.145	.301	25	11	.320	103	+2	+2	-4	+6	+15	2.1
2040	33	MLB	PIT	492	431	101	17	3	12	52	126	6	8	0	.234	.325	.371	.696	.137	.299	26	11	.315	99	-0	+2	-4	+5	+14	1.7
2041	34	MLB	PIT	445	390	90	15	2	11	47	118	5	7	0	.231	.321	.364	.685	.133	.298	27	11	.309	94	-3	+1	-5	+5	+13	1.1
2042	35	MLB	PIT	391	343	77	12	2	9	41	107	4	7	0	.224	.314	.350	.664	.125	.297	27	10	.301	89	-5	+1	-6	+4	+11	0.6
2043	36	MLB	PIT	331	290	64	10	2	7	34	94	4	6	0	.221	.311	.341	.652	.121	.295	28	10	.293	82	-7	+1	-6	+4	+9	0.1
2044	37	MLB	PIT	267	235	50	8	1	5	27	79	3	5	0	.213	.302	.319	.621	.106	.292	30	10	.284	75	-7	+1	-7	+3	+8	-0.3
2045	38	MLB	PIT	198	174	35	5	1	3	20	60	2	3	0	.201	.291	.293	.584	.092	.287	30	10	.274	67	-7	+1	-8	+2	+6	-0.7
▸ Career Totals (MLE all levels + projections)
Career	—			8803	7723	1840	309	53	227	897	2172	109	167	21	.238	.326	.380	.706	.142	.300	25	10	.316	100	+4	+25	-46	+94	+249	33.3
/ 162G	—			650	570	136	23	4	17	66	160	8	12	2	.239	.326	.382	.708	.144	.301	25	10	.316	100	+0	+2	-3	+7	+18	2.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	114	98	20	3	1	0	12	17	3	2	1	.204	.310	.255	.565	.051	.244	15	11	.268	63	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	106	94	19	3	0	0	9	16	2	4	1	.202	.286	.234	.520	.032	.241	15	8	.246	46	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dariel Arias (OGILVIE)	19	50→55	28→33	47→52	48	.216/.284/.322	.106	.291	1	2	28%	8%	70	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
●J.P. Crawford 2014 · A	19	49→58	37→45	50	48	.231/.293/.308	.076	.300	4	13	23%	8%	69	-0.4	.243/.308/.337	.094	.291	8	13	18%	8%	82	+0.5	.263/.355/.386	.123	.307	11	2	17%	11%	113	+2.8
●Andrés Giménez 2018 · A	19	50→60	39→50	48→55	48	.235/.303/.327	.092	.279	6	11	18%	6%	78	+0.2	.235/.290/.342	.107	.303	7	22	24%	5%	77	+0.1	.262/.326/.420	.159	.312	17	25	21%	5%	108	+2.1
●Jackson Holliday 2023 · A	19	50→59	41→50	50	56	.236/.325/.340	.104	.299	8	10	22%	12%	91	+1.1	.251/.334/.388	.137	.334	12	14	26%	11%	107	+2.2	.247/.330/.386	.139	.319	14	15	25%	10%	103	+1.9
✕Cam Maron 2010 · A	19	46→55	40	50→40	46	.221/.288/.315	.094	.293	7	7	26%	8%	69	-0.4	.238/.304/.326	.088	.303	7	5	22%	8%	79	+0.3	.246/.316/.311	.065	.316	4	2	22%	9%	75	+0.0
✕Nelson Quiroz 2021 · A	19	44	37→40	47→40	45	.209/.268/.279	.070	.271	5	6	24%	7%	50	-1.7	.224/.289/.327	.103	.275	7	5	20%	8%	72	-0.2	.253/.306/.321	.068	.288	2	0	12%	6%	73	-0.0
●Justin Crawford 2023 · A	19	46→56	37→45	51→60	41	.213/.274/.288	.076	.314	5	17	32%	7%	56	-1.3	.272/.317/.374	.102	.360	6	33	25%	6%	95	+1.4	.294/.339/.402	.108	.380	7	41	23%	6%	107	+1.7
●Moisés Ballesteros 2022 · A	18	45→55	40→50	50→40	51	.218/.295/.314	.096	.275	8	8	22%	9%	72	-0.2	.225/.288/.359	.134	.280	15	4	24%	8%	80	+0.4	.259/.317/.396	.137	.305	16	3	20%	7%	100	+1.5
✕Adrian Cardenas 2007 · A	19	47→57	39→40	54→50	43	.224/.276/.310	.086	.292	6	13	24%	6%	62	-0.9	.246/.290/.340	.094	.299	7	12	19%	6%	75	-0.0	.269/.318/.358	.090	.312	5	8	15%	6%	90	+0.9
✕Jesus Rodriguez 2021 · A	19	46→56	42→45	49→50	46	.224/.285/.337	.113	.288	9	9	25%	8%	72	-0.2	.233/.299/.337	.104	.295	6	12	21%	8%	79	+0.3	.254/.316/.360	.106	.307	10	16	19%	7%	89	+0.7
●Brandon Marsh 2018 · A	20	49→59	42→50	54→50	37	.235/.276/.347	.112	.314	8	11	27%	4%	72	-0.2	.221/.280/.325	.104	.331	8	12	33%	7%	68	-0.5	.262/.344/.424	.163	.366	16	16	30%	11%	115	+2.2
●Josh Thole 2006 · A	19	46→56	37→45	47→45	52	.218/.296/.293	.075	.258	5	6	17%	8%	66	-0.6	.222/.286/.288	.066	.278	3	4	20%	7%	61	-1.0	.283/.345/.382	.099	.319	5	4	12%	8%	108	+1.7
✕Termarr Johnson 2023 · A	19	46→50	41→45	52→50	47	.214/.293/.319	.105	.323	8	13	34%	10%	72	-0.2	.209/.310/.338	.129	.295	15	12	31%	12%	85	+0.7	.208/.302/.326	.118	.280	14	14	29%	11%	76	+0.1
●Brice Turang 2019 · A	19	46→56	36→45	53→60	48	.216/.286/.284	.068	.296	4	14	27%	9%	59	-1.1	.213/.287/.280	.067	.286	4	16	24%	9%	59	-1.1	.273/.346/.393	.120	.333	12	35	20%	10%	107	+1.7
●Jackson Merrill 2023 · A	20	51→58	42→55	51→50	41	.244/.289/.355	.111	.326	9	12	27%	6%	79	+0.3	.259/.300/.414	.155	.299	17	12	19%	5%	99	+1.7	.266/.310/.441	.174	.301	19	10	18%	6%	107	+1.9
●Xavier Edwards 2019 · A	19	52→62	37→40	55→60	49	.241/.304/.317	.076	.306	3	17	21%	8%	75	-0.0	.250/.296/.310	.060	.296	1	19	15%	6%	69	-0.4	.299/.358/.381	.081	.343	4	36	13%	8%	110	+2.1
●Evan Carter 2022 · A	19	46→52	43→50	52→55	54	.219/.321/.336	.117	.295	9	17	27%	11%	89	+1.0	.230/.314/.374	.144	.298	13	20	25%	10%	95	+1.4	.229/.316/.381	.152	.296	15	21	26%	10%	95	+0.9
●Alexi Amarista 2008 · A	19	51→60	41→45	51→55	47	.244/.292/.349	.104	.275	8	12	15%	6%	79	+0.3	.259/.308/.357	.098	.297	5	18	14%	6%	87	+0.8	.271/.316/.371	.100	.310	4	21	13%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Victor Arias 2023 · A	19	46	38→45	49→50	43	.205/.282/.285	.080	.335	4	11	37%	9%	59	-1.1	.215/.299/.323	.108	.322	9	16	33%	9%	76	+0.1	.219/.297/.335	.116	.314	10	18	31%	8%	75	+0.0
✕Luis García Jr. 2019 · A	19	50→57	39→50	50	40	.241/.269/.323	.083	.298	6	9	21%	4%	61	-1.0	.237/.263/.330	.093	.289	8	8	20%	3%	61	-1.0	.270/.306/.407	.137	.308	14	13	17%	5%	97	+1.4
●Adael Amador 2022 · A	19	45→54	41→50	45→55	47	.219/.281/.317	.098	.274	8	11	23%	8%	66	-0.6	.241/.317/.373	.132	.280	15	17	19%	9%	97	+1.5	.233/.312/.369	.136	.267	17	23	19%	9%	90	+0.8

Contract

Career Projections (MLE) Show advanced cols

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Career Path Comps

Career Projections (MLE)