Dariel Arias — OGILVIE

Dariel AriasSS DSL CLE Mendoza

Age 19 L/R 6'0" / 152 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 91 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .278 / .293

PA91

HR1

K%25

BB%7

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 55 / POW 33

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT55

scouting grade only

POWER33

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED52

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.1	$6M	+$5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$6M	+$5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.1	$4M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.6M
2037	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$1M	+$0.1M
Totals		$12M		$24M	+$19M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	114	102	16	2	1	0	8	25	3	2	1	157	239	196	435	39	205	22	7	189	3	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	114	98	20	3	1	0	12	17	3	2	1	204	310	255	565	51	244	15	11	268	63	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	106	97	14	2	0	0	6	24	2	4	1	144	210	165	374	21	189	23	6	178	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	106	94	19	3	0	0	9	16	2	4	1	202	286	234	520	32	241	15	8	246	46	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	19	MLB	PIT	—	91	84	19	3	1	1	6	23	1	1	0	226	286	321	607	95	290	25	7	262	59	-4	+0	+0	+1	+3	-0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	PIT	34%	181	165	37	6	1	2	12	45	2	3	1	224	285	309	594	85	292	25	7	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+2	+5	0.1
2028	21	MLB	PIT	48%	318	289	65	11	2	4	22	78	4	6	2	225	289	318	607	93	293	25	7	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2029	22	MLB	PIT	54%	418	379	88	15	3	7	30	101	6	8	2	232	299	343	642	111	294	24	7	286	77	-11	+1	+0	+4	+12	0.6
2030	23	MLB	PIT	57%	484	440	101	17	3	8	35	116	6	10	3	230	295	336	632	107	295	24	7	289	79	-11	+1	+0	+5	+14	0.9
2031	24	MLB	PIT	57%	528	478	112	19	4	9	38	126	7	11	3	234	300	347	647	113	296	24	7	291	81	-12	+1	+0	+6	+15	1.0
2032	25	MLB	PIT	57%	554	502	118	20	4	10	40	132	7	11	3	235	301	351	651	116	296	24	7	292	81	-12	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.1
2033	26	MLB	PIT	56%	568	513	120	20	4	10	42	136	8	11	3	234	302	347	649	113	296	24	7	292	82	-12	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.2
2034	27	MLB	PIT	55%	572	516	121	20	4	10	43	137	8	12	3	234	303	347	650	112	295	24	8	292	82	-12	+1	+0	+6	+16	1.2
2035	28	MLB	PIT	55%	570	514	120	20	4	10	43	137	8	11	3	233	303	346	649	113	295	24	8	291	81	-12	+1	-1	+6	+16	1.1
2036	29	MLB	PIT	53%	562	506	118	19	4	10	43	136	8	11	3	233	303	346	649	113	295	24	8	290	80	-13	+1	-1	+6	+16	0.9
2037	30	MLB	PIT	53%	553	499	114	19	3	9	42	136	7	10	3	228	297	333	630	104	294	25	8	287	78	-14	+1	-2	+6	+16	0.7
2038	31	MLB	PIT	52%	539	486	109	18	3	8	41	134	7	10	3	224	294	323	617	99	292	25	8	283	75	-15	+1	-3	+6	+15	0.4
2039	32	MLB	PIT	52%	521	470	105	17	3	8	39	131	7	9	2	223	293	323	616	100	289	25	7	278	71	-17	+1	-4	+6	+15	0.1
2040	33	MLB	PIT	56%	492	446	97	15	3	7	37	127	6	8	2	217	286	312	598	94	286	26	8	272	66	-19	+1	-4	+5	+14	-0.3
2027	20	MLB	PIT	34%	62	57	12	2	0	1	4	15	1	1	0	211	274	298	572	88	291	24	6	263	59	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	21	MLB	PIT	48%	154	140	31	5	1	2	11	38	2	3	1	221	288	314	602	93	292	25	7	270	65	-6	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.0
2029	22	MLB	PIT	54%	227	206	48	8	2	4	16	55	3	4	1	233	298	350	647	117	292	24	7	275	69	-8	+0	+0	+2	+6	0.1
2030	23	MLB	PIT	57%	274	248	58	10	2	5	20	66	4	5	1	234	301	351	652	117	293	24	7	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+3	+8	0.2
2031	24	MLB	PIT	57%	299	271	63	11	2	5	22	71	4	6	2	232	300	343	643	111	294	24	7	280	72	-9	+0	+0	+3	+8	0.3
2032	25	MLB	PIT	57%	313	283	65	11	2	5	23	75	4	6	2	230	297	336	632	106	294	24	7	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2033	26	MLB	PIT	56%	321	290	68	11	2	6	24	77	4	6	2	234	302	348	650	114	294	24	7	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2034	27	MLB	PIT	55%	317	286	67	11	2	6	24	76	4	6	2	234	303	350	652	115	294	24	8	281	73	-10	+0	+0	+3	+9	0.3
2035	28	MLB	PIT	55%	313	282	65	11	2	5	24	75	4	6	2	230	300	337	637	106	294	24	8	280	73	-10	+0	-0	+3	+9	0.3
2036	29	MLB	PIT	53%	300	270	62	10	2	5	23	73	4	6	2	230	300	337	637	107	293	24	8	279	72	-10	+0	-1	+3	+8	0.2
2037	30	MLB	PIT	53%	291	263	61	10	2	5	22	71	4	5	1	232	301	342	643	110	292	24	8	276	70	-10	+1	-1	+3	+8	0.1
2038	31	MLB	PIT	52%	281	254	57	9	2	4	21	70	4	5	1	224	294	323	617	98	290	25	7	273	67	-11	+1	-1	+3	+8	-0.0
2039	32	MLB	PIT	52%	270	245	55	9	2	4	20	68	3	5	1	224	291	327	618	102	288	25	7	268	63	-11	+1	-2	+3	+8	-0.2
2040	33	MLB	PIT	56%	276	250	54	8	2	4	21	71	3	5	1	216	285	312	597	96	284	26	8	262	58	-13	+1	-2	+3	+8	-0.4
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3698	3345	766	126	25	61	275	901	48	69	19	229	297	336	633	107	294	24	7	276	69	-128	+6	-8	+40	+105	1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	134	22	4	11	48	158	8	12	3	228	295	335	630	107	291	24	7	276	69	-23	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	7171	6486	1474	243	47	113	527	1744	97	138	38	227	295	331	627	104	292	24	7	283	75	-204	+12	-15	+77	+203	7.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	588	133	22	4	10	48	158	9	13	3	226	295	328	623	102	291	24	7	283	75	-19	+1	-1	+7	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	114	98	20	3	1	0	12	17	3	2	1	204	310	255	565	51	244	15	11	268	63	-5	+0	—	—	+3	-0.2
2025	18	ROK	DSL CLE Mendoza	—	106	94	19	3	0	0	9	16	2	4	1	202	286	234	520	32	241	15	8	246	46	-6	+0	—	—	+3	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brad Ausmuslast yr '10 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,296 PA	11	4,296	39	39	244	319	326	+39	+43	12.4	12.0
	/162	664	6	6	244	319	326	+6.1	+6.6	1.9	pk7: 12
#2Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	10	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
	/162	664	8	18	243	310	341	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#3Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6Yolmer Sánchezlast yr '19 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,438 PA	6	2,438	31	30	244	299	357	+9	+26	5.4	5.4
	/162	664	8	8	244	299	357	+2.4	+7.2	1.5	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,789	62	72	231	295	337	+41	+24	5.2	4.6
	/162	664	11	13	231	295	337	+7.1	+4.2	0.9	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Dariel Arias (OGILVIE)	19	50→55	28→33	47→52	48	217/278/293	76	290	1	1	25%	7%	59	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Raynel Delgado 2019 · A	19	49→56	36→40	50→60	45	223/289/290	67	330	3	11	31%	8%	63	-0.9	204/258/276	72	303	4	10	32%	6%	45	-2.1	242/304/336	94	333	8	32	28%	7%	76	+0.1
✕James Beresford 2008 · A	19	47→57	34→30	49→45	43	221/267/269	48	287	2	10	23%	6%	46	-2.0	236/283/276	40	301	1	7	20%	6%	55	-1.4	277/309/327	49	326	1	6	15%	4%	75	+0.0
✕Emmanuel Avila 2008 · A	19	43→53	35→45	50→45	45	199/268/263	64	272	2	8	26%	7%	47	-1.9	211/249/274	63	258	4	6	19%	4%	40	-2.4	268/309/352	83	293	9	4	12%	4%	85	+0.5
✕Livan Soto 2019 · A	19	45→54	34→40	47→50	49	208/273/256	49	257	1	10	19%	8%	46	-2.0	189/245/250	61	247	4	9	23%	7%	33	-2.9	236/307/320	84	310	7	8	24%	9%	76	+0.0
●Rey Fuentes 2010 · A	19	46→56	37→40	48→60	39	218/256/291	74	280	4	11	24%	4%	48	-1.9	214/259/288	74	304	4	25	29%	5%	49	-1.8	274/321/368	94	353	8	33	23%	5%	91	+0.8
✕Kean Wong 2014 · A	19	51→61	35→45	52→55	43	237/278/297	60	289	2	9	19%	5%	58	-1.2	258/291/321	63	331	3	10	22%	4%	69	-0.4	248/292/354	106	322	9	9	25%	5%	77	+0.1
✕Jose Reyes 2017 · A	18	50	36→45	51→55	44	235/281/303	67	296	3	10	21%	5%	62	-0.9	221/269/309	88	263	5	15	17%	6%	58	-1.2	219/269/317	97	252	6	20	15%	6%	56	-0.5
✕Cam Maron 2010 · A	19	46→56	40	50→40	47	222/289/316	94	291	7	7	25%	8%	69	-0.4	242/309/331	89	308	7	5	22%	8%	82	+0.5	244/317/320	76	314	4	2	22%	9%	78	+0.1
✕Isiah Kiner-Falefa 2014 · A	19	50→56	34→40	50→55	44	234/282/287	53	301	2	14	22%	6%	57	-1.2	235/286/279	44	295	1	9	19%	5%	57	-1.2	264/312/341	77	299	6	21	14%	5%	81	+0.3
✕Rochest Cruz 2018 · A	19	46	36→40	43→65	52	214/289/283	69	266	3	10	20%	9%	61	-1.0	213/286/278	65	276	3	30	22%	8%	59	-1.1	205/284/259	53	265	2	47	21%	8%	50	-0.6
✕Alain Camou 2023 · A	19	52	37→40	46→50	53	241/307/322	81	285	3	10	16%	8%	78	+0.2	207/265/272	65	271	2	6	22%	7%	47	-1.9	177/232/223	46	237	0	2	24%	6%	19	-1.0
✕Marco Hernández 2012 · A	19	48→58	38→45	48→50	44	227/266/314	87	270	3	13	17%	5%	58	-1.2	207/238/283	76	272	5	12	25%	4%	38	-2.6	271/296/380	110	350	8	6	24%	3%	85	+0.4
✕Alek Thomas 2019 · A	19	50→51	38→50	51→50	44	238/283/324	87	297	4	10	21%	6%	68	-0.5	241/294/369	128	325	10	10	27%	6%	85	+0.7	241/298/385	144	307	13	11	25%	6%	87	+0.7
✕Tucker Barnhart 2010 · A	19	43→53	37→45	49→40	43	204/257/275	71	277	4	6	27%	6%	45	-2.1	222/282/297	75	300	3	5	25%	7%	61	-1.0	242/327/368	126	287	12	2	19%	11%	89	+0.7
✕Meibrys Viloria 2016 · A	19	46→47	36→45	46→40	47	217/275/275	58	274	4	3	22%	7%	53	-1.5	242/288/350	108	311	9	3	24%	5%	77	+0.1	247/290/366	119	318	11	2	25%	5%	79	+0.2
✕Jorge Ruiz 2023 · A	19	50→48	36→40	51→50	45	233/285/301	67	276	2	13	16%	5%	63	-0.8	224/276/298	74	287	4	12	22%	5%	59	-1.1	216/269/284	68	281	3	13	23%	5%	50	-1.3
✕Hector Osorio 2023 · A	18	47	37→45	47→50	48	219/301/296	77	303	4	8	27%	9%	70	-0.3	210/316/279	69	269	4	14	21%	11%	73	-0.1	220/318/345	125	249	16	10	18%	10%	88	+0.4
✕Reese McGuire 2014 · A	19	52	35→45	49→45	45	241/284/302	61	284	2	7	16%	5%	63	-0.9	234/271/290	56	270	2	8	14%	4%	53	-1.5	240/291/350	109	291	9	3	20%	6%	78	+0.1
✕Daniel Montesino 2023 · A	19	49	39→40	48→45	45	221/299/315	95	336	6	8	33%	9%	74	-0.1	200/266/272	72	314	3	9	34%	7%	48	-1.9	172/232/221	49	286	0	8	37%	6%	18	-1.1
✕Andy Sugilio 2016 · A	19	45→52	36→40	49→50	44	210/256/282	72	268	2	8	22%	6%	45	-2.1	223/260/301	78	291	4	12	23%	5%	52	-1.6	238/265/318	80	304	4	15	23%	3%	55	-0.6