Carlos Rondon — OGILVIE

Carlos RondonC DSL NYY Bombers

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 190 lbs ROK HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 77 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.186 / .273 / .264

PA77

HR1

K%34

BB%9

ISO78

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.9	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.0	$5M	+$4M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2035	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$1M	+$1.0M
2036	Arb-2	$1M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2037	Arb-3	$0.6M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.2M
Totals		$6M		$11M	+$9M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	68	6	0	0	0	11	34	3	3	1	88	244	88	332		176	41	13	176	-7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	61	8	0	0	0	18	24	3	3	1	131	354	131	485		216	29	22	268	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	86	70	12	2	0	2	12	43	3	1	0	171	318	286	603	114	385	50	14	269	64	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	86	64	18	4	0	3	18	30	3	1	0	281	459	484	943	203	469	35	21	420	179	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	NYY	—	77	69	12	2	0	1	7	27	1	1	0	174	260	246	506	72	289	35	9	252	51	-4	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	165	147	29	5	1	2	15	55	2	2	1	197	280	286	566	88	291	33	9	263	60	-8	+0	+0	+3	+5	0.0
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	299	265	54	9	2	5	28	96	4	4	1	204	290	309	599	106	292	32	9	271	66	-12	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	391	346	71	12	2	7	36	124	6	5	1	205	291	312	603	107	293	32	9	276	70	-13	+1	+0	+7	+11	0.5
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	454	402	83	14	2	9	42	142	7	6	2	206	293	318	611	112	294	31	9	280	72	-14	+0	+0	+8	+13	0.7
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	491	436	91	15	3	10	45	154	7	6	2	209	293	326	619	117	294	31	9	282	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	511	451	96	16	3	11	47	160	8	6	2	213	298	335	633	122	294	31	9	283	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+14	0.9
2033	27	MLB	NYY	55%	520	458	97	16	3	11	49	163	8	6	2	212	299	332	631	120	294	31	9	283	74	-15	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.0
2034	28	MLB	NYY	55%	520	458	96	16	3	11	49	164	8	6	2	210	297	330	627	120	293	32	9	282	74	-16	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.8
2035	29	MLB	NYY	58%	515	453	92	15	2	10	49	163	8	6	2	203	292	311	603	108	292	32	10	280	72	-16	+0	-1	+9	+15	0.7
2036	30	MLB	NYY	60%	507	447	91	15	2	10	48	162	7	5	1	204	291	313	604	110	291	32	9	277	70	-17	+1	-2	+9	+14	0.5
2037	31	MLB	NYY	62%	479	423	85	14	2	9	46	154	7	4	1	201	290	307	597	106	288	32	10	273	67	-18	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.2
2038	32	MLB	NYY	63%	447	396	77	12	2	8	42	146	6	3	1	194	282	295	577	101	285	33	9	267	63	-19	+0	-4	+8	+13	-0.1
2027	21	MLB	NYY	34%	57	51	10	2	0	1	5	19	1	1	0	196	281	294	575	98	292	33	9	254	53	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2028	22	MLB	NYY	48%	145	129	25	4	1	2	13	47	2	2	0	194	278	287	565	93	293	32	9	262	59	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB	NYY	54%	212	187	39	7	1	4	20	67	3	3	1	209	295	321	616	112	294	32	9	268	63	-9	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.1
2030	24	MLB	NYY	55%	252	223	46	8	1	5	23	79	4	3	1	206	292	318	610	112	295	31	9	271	66	-10	+0	+0	+4	+7	0.2
2031	25	MLB	NYY	56%	275	244	51	9	1	6	25	86	4	3	1	209	293	328	621	119	296	31	9	273	67	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2032	26	MLB	NYY	56%	287	254	53	9	1	6	27	90	4	4	1	209	295	323	618	114	295	31	9	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB	NYY	55%	288	255	53	9	1	6	27	90	4	4	1	208	294	322	615	114	295	31	9	274	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB	NYY	55%	285	252	52	9	1	6	27	90	4	3	1	206	293	321	615	115	295	32	9	273	67	-11	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.2
2035	29	MLB	NYY	58%	299	265	54	9	1	6	28	95	4	3	1	204	290	313	603	109	294	32	9	271	66	-12	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2036	30	MLB	NYY	60%	305	269	55	9	1	6	29	97	4	3	1	204	291	312	604	108	292	32	10	268	64	-13	+0	-1	+5	+9	0.0
2037	31	MLB	NYY	62%	296	262	53	9	1	6	28	95	4	3	1	202	289	313	602	111	290	32	9	264	60	-13	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.1
2038	32	MLB	NYY	63%	281	248	49	8	1	5	27	92	4	2	1	198	287	298	585	101	286	33	10	259	56	-14	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2982	2639	540	92	11	59	279	947	42	34	10	205	291	315	606	110	292	32	9	269	64	-121	+3	-6	+53	+84	1.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	575	117	20	2	13	61	206	9	7	2	203	290	313	603	110	290	32	9	269	64	-26	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.3
Career	—			—	5544	4889	992	163	27	106	526	1787	85	64	19	203	291	312	604	109	293	32	9	275	69	-194	+5	-10	+99	+157	5.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	116	19	3	12	62	210	10	8	2	202	291	309	600	106	294	32	10	275	69	-23	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.7

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	18	ROK	DSL NYY Yankees	—	82	61	8	0	0	0	18	24	3	3	1	131	354	131	485		216	29	22	268	64	-3	+0	—	—	+2	-0.1
2025	19	ROK	DSL NYY Bombers	—	86	64	18	4	0	3	18	30	3	1	0	281	459	484	943	203	469	35	21	420	179	+8	+0	—	—	+2	1.1

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	10	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#4Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,058	58	34	205	289	315	+55	+32	3.7	3.5
	/162	664	13	7	205	289	315	+11.9	+6.9	0.8	pk7: 3
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#6Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Carlos Rondon (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	186/273/264	78	289	1	1	34%	9%	51	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Mike Ohlman 2011 · A	20	39→49	38→45	50→40	38	185/245/263	78	303	5	5	38%	7%	37	-2.6	216/279/309	93	310	6	3	30%	7%	63	-0.8	229/295/332	103	322	7	2	29%	8%	73	-0.1
✕Christian Cairo 2021 · A	20	39→46	35→40	48→60	44	183/264/241	59	277	2	9	32%	8%	40	-2.4	186/288/267	81	287	6	15	33%	11%	59	-1.1	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→45	44→55	39	187/251/282	95	271	10	9	33%	6%	46	-2.0	202/259/294	92	279	6	11	28%	6%	51	-1.7	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Franklin Tineo 2015 · A	20	38	35→45	42→50	41	179/245/239	60	279	2	8	34%	7%	31	-3.0	184/260/268	84	250	6	9	27%	8%	46	-2.0	174/259/268	94	224	8	11	24%	9%	43	-0.7
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	201/299/281	80	274	6	17	26%	10%	66	-0.6	179/307/226	46	224	4	30	20%	12%	56	-0.5
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→55	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	196/264/293	97	301	10	5	36%	6%	54	-1.4	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2009 · A	20	41	39→40	50	48	191/281/275	84	291	6	12	33%	10%	56	-1.3	194/264/268	74	320	4	9	37%	8%	46	-2.0	140/204/175	34	267	0	8	44%	7%	-3	-1.2
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Alexander Mojica 2023 · A	20	34	41→45	47→40	39	168/245/259	91	281	10	3	41%	8%	37	-2.6	203/283/327	124	326	12	6	38%	9%	71	-0.3	196/292/343	147	309	14	3	37%	10%	75	-0.0
✕Geoandry Montilla 2016 · A	20	44	41→45	48→50	41	213/265/307	95	298	8	7	30%	7%	56	-1.3	201/269/302	101	296	8	8	32%	8%	58	-1.2	174/253/276	102	257	8	9	33%	8%	42	-0.7
✕Geovanny Planchart 2023 · A	21	41	36→40	50→40	46	190/271/255	65	295	3	5	34%	10%	46	-2.0	197/283/279	82	287	5	4	30%	10%	58	-1.2	185/278/265	80	263	6	2	29%	11%	51	-0.7
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Kenny Hart 2010 · A	20	42	38→45	48→50	41	200/273/277	77	292	5	6	31%	7%	53	-1.5	211/296/309	98	281	8	11	26%	7%	72	-0.2	199/298/306	107	253	9	15	23%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Chris Suero 2023 · A	19	41→37	38→45	47→55	49	191/290/273	82	290	5	8	32%	11%	61	-1.0	192/289/292	100	287	9	14	33%	10%	65	-0.7	175/282/297	122	265	13	26	36%	10%	62	-0.6