Alexander Mambel

Alexander MambelC FCL Red Sox

Age 19 R/R 6'0" / 191 lbs ROK H +3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION28 act + 29 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .241 / .222

PA29

HR0

K%28

BB%7

BABIP263

ISO37

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$7M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.4	$6M	+$6M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.3	$5M	+$4M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+1.1	$4M	+$3M
2037	Arb-3	$4M	+0.9	$2M	+$0.3M
Totals		$13M		$30M	+$26M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	21	4	0	2	1	20	3	0	0	208	238	307	545	99	237	19	1	225	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	28	7	0	2	1	13	3	0	0	277	305	406	711	129	299	12	1	314	98	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	53	45	7	2	0	2	3	23	4	0	1	156	269	333	603	178	238	43	6	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	53	44	11	4	0	2	4	15	4	0	1	250	365	477	843	227	321	28	8	369	140	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	19	ROK	BOS	—	28	27	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	185	214	185	399		455	57	4	181	-3	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
YTD	19	ROK	BOS	—	28	26	8	0	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	308	357	308	665		533	39	7	308	94	-0	+0	+0	+0	+1	0.1
ROS	19	ROK	BOS	0%	29	27	5	1	0	0	2	8	0	0	0	185	241	222	464	37	288	28	7	260	57	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
ROS	19	MLB	BOS	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		294	—	—	253	52	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	19	ROK	BOS	—	28	28	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	179	214	179	393		417	57	4	181	-3	-3	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.2
TOT	19	ROK	BOS	—	57	54	10	1	0	0	3	24	0	1	0	185	228	204	432	19	333	42	5	221	28	-5	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.2
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	20	MLB	BOS	34%	148	136	30	5	1	3	9	41	2	1	1	221	279	338	617	118	290	28	6	271	66	-6	-0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2028	21	MLB	BOS	48%	291	266	61	11	2	6	18	79	5	3	1	229	291	353	644	124	291	27	6	279	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2029	22	MLB	BOS	54%	398	364	82	15	2	8	25	106	6	4	1	225	286	343	629	118	292	27	6	285	76	-11	+0	+0	+7	+11	0.8
2030	23	MLB	BOS	57%	471	430	98	17	3	10	30	125	8	5	2	228	291	351	642	123	293	27	6	288	79	-11	+0	+0	+8	+13	1.1
2031	24	MLB	BOS	57%	518	472	109	19	3	12	33	137	8	5	2	231	292	360	653	129	294	26	6	290	80	-12	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.3
2032	25	MLB	BOS	57%	520	474	109	19	3	12	33	137	8	5	2	230	291	359	650	129	294	26	6	291	81	-11	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.3
2033	26	MLB	BOS	56%	520	474	109	19	3	12	33	137	8	5	2	230	291	359	650	129	294	26	6	292	82	-11	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2034	27	MLB	BOS	55%	520	473	109	19	3	12	34	137	8	5	2	230	293	359	653	129	294	26	7	292	82	-11	+0	+0	+9	+15	1.4
2035	28	MLB	BOS	55%	520	473	108	19	3	12	34	138	8	5	2	228	291	357	649	129	293	27	7	291	81	-11	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.3
2036	29	MLB	BOS	53%	520	472	108	19	3	12	35	139	8	5	2	229	293	358	651	129	293	27	7	289	80	-12	+0	-1	+9	+15	1.1
2037	30	MLB	BOS	53%	520	472	107	19	2	12	35	140	8	4	1	227	291	352	643	125	291	27	7	286	77	-13	+0	-2	+9	+15	0.9
2038	31	MLB	BOS	52%	504	457	102	18	2	11	34	138	8	3	1	223	289	344	632	120	289	27	7	282	74	-15	+0	-3	+9	+14	0.6
2039	32	MLB	BOS	56%	487	444	96	16	2	10	32	135	8	3	1	216	281	329	610	113	286	28	7	277	70	-16	+0	-4	+9	+14	0.3
2040	33	MLB	BOS	59%	445	406	86	14	2	9	29	126	7	2	1	212	276	323	599	111	281	28	7	270	65	-18	+0	-4	+8	+13	-0.1
2027	20	MLB	BOS	34%	51	47	10	2	0	1	3	14	1	1	0	213	275	319	594	106	296	27	6	264	60	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	21	MLB	BOS	48%	141	129	29	5	1	3	9	38	2	1	0	225	286	349	635	124	298	27	6	272	66	-5	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2029	22	MLB	BOS	54%	216	197	45	8	1	5	14	58	3	2	1	228	290	355	645	127	299	27	6	277	70	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.3
2030	23	MLB	BOS	57%	267	244	56	10	1	6	17	71	4	3	1	230	291	352	643	123	300	27	6	281	73	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2031	24	MLB	BOS	57%	293	267	62	11	1	7	19	77	5	3	1	232	296	360	655	127	301	26	6	283	75	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2032	25	MLB	BOS	57%	294	268	63	12	1	7	19	77	5	3	1	235	298	366	664	131	301	26	6	284	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2033	26	MLB	BOS	56%	294	268	62	11	1	7	19	77	5	3	1	231	295	358	653	127	300	26	6	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2034	27	MLB	BOS	55%	288	262	61	11	1	7	19	76	5	3	1	233	297	363	660	130	300	26	7	285	76	-8	+0	+0	+5	+8	0.6
2035	28	MLB	BOS	55%	285	259	60	11	1	7	19	76	5	3	1	232	297	363	660	131	300	27	7	284	75	-8	+0	-0	+5	+8	0.5
2036	29	MLB	BOS	53%	278	253	58	11	1	6	19	74	4	2	1	229	293	352	645	123	299	27	7	282	74	-8	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.4
2037	30	MLB	BOS	53%	274	250	56	10	1	6	18	74	4	2	1	224	287	344	631	120	298	27	7	279	72	-9	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2038	31	MLB	BOS	52%	263	239	55	10	1	6	18	72	4	2	1	230	295	356	651	126	295	27	7	275	69	-9	+0	-1	+5	+7	0.1
2039	32	MLB	BOS	56%	274	250	56	10	1	6	18	76	4	2	1	224	287	344	631	120	292	28	7	270	65	-11	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.0
2040	33	MLB	BOS	59%	262	239	52	9	1	5	17	74	4	1	0	218	281	326	607	109	287	28	6	263	59	-12	+0	-2	+5	+7	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3480	3173	725	131	13	79	228	934	55	31	11	228	292	353	644	124	297	27	7	279	71	-113	+2	-8	+62	+99	4.3
/ 162G	—			—	650	593	135	24	2	15	43	174	10	6	2	228	291	351	642	123	296	27	7	279	71	-21	+0	-2	+12	+18	0.8
Career	—			—	6570	5986	1347	236	34	145	420	1766	107	55	22	225	288	348	636	123	292	27	6	285	76	-179	+2	-15	+117	+186	11.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	132	23	3	14	42	175	11	5	2	223	287	343	630	120	290	27	6	285	76	-18	+0	-1	+12	+18	1.1

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	28	7	0	2	1	13	3	0	0	277	305	406	711	129	299	12	1	314	98	-0	+0	—	—	+3	0.3
2025	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	53	44	11	4	0	2	4	15	4	0	1	250	365	477	843	227	321	28	8	369	140	+2	-0	—	—	+2	0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Miguel Olivolast yr '13 career totals — 11 seasons, 3,947 PA	11	3,947	144	53	241	275	417	+70	+53	19.1	18.9
	/162	664	24	9	241	275	417	+11.9	+8.8	3.2	pk7: 19
#2Rod Barajaslast yr '12 career totals — 12 seasons, 3,753 PA	12	3,753	134	2	235	284	407	+60	+30	15.8	16.0
	/162	664	24	0	235	284	407	+10.7	+5.3	2.8	pk7: 16
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#3John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#4Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#5Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#6Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,536	78	31	226	286	349	+63	+32	6.8	5.9
	/162	664	15	6	226	286	349	+11.9	+6.0	1.3	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Alexander Mambel (OGILVIE)	19	—	—	—	—	185/228/204	19	333	0	1	42%	5%	28	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rodolfo Castro 2018 · A	19	41→40	42→55	47→50	39	203/257/313	110	287	8	5	31%	6%	55	-1.4	192/232/317	125	275	12	5	34%	4%	45	-2.1	205/272/358	153	266	19	11	30%	7%	72	-0.2
✕Jesus Galiz 2023 · A	19	38	43→45	49→40	40	193/254/304	111	268	10	5	31%	6%	53	-1.5	201/260/303	102	309	9	3	36%	6%	54	-1.4	189/250/287	98	295	8	2	37%	6%	45	-1.0
✕Agustín Ramírez 2021 · A	19	40→45	41→55	46→55	40	199/248/293	95	266	8	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	209/269/336	127	287	13	8	30%	7%	66	-0.6	232/295/411	179	268	22	16	22%	7%	94	+1.3
✕Pedro Severino 2012 · A	19	37→47	39→50	49→45	39	184/237/267	83	257	7	4	30%	6%	34	-2.8	189/233/266	77	239	5	3	22%	4%	32	-3.0	238/307/375	137	291	17	3	24%	8%	90	+0.6
✕Juan Uriarte 2017 · A	19	41	38→45	46→30	41	199/261/275	76	260	5	5	25%	5%	47	-1.9	210/260/302	92	278	8	4	26%	4%	53	-1.5	184/227/264	80	254	7	0	30%	3%	27	-1.0
✕Jose Cordoba 2022 · A	19	39	39→45	45→55	38	193/252/278	85	266	7	8	29%	5%	44	-2.1	196/255/289	93	278	8	10	31%	6%	48	-1.9	199/258/292	93	268	4	15	26%	6%	47	-0.8
✕Denzer Guzman 2023 · A	19	38→36	40→45	47→50	42	190/245/284	93	260	7	9	29%	6%	43	-2.2	187/246/287	100	286	9	8	36%	7%	43	-2.2	205/268/331	127	286	15	12	32%	7%	61	-0.7
✕Yohan Matos 2016 · A	19	40	41→45	48→45	38	194/251/289	95	288	8	7	34%	6%	46	-2.0	197/259/275	78	321	4	8	37%	7%	46	-2.0	166/241/231	64	289	0	11	39%	8%	24	-0.7
✕Ismerling Mota 2017 · A	19	43	40→45	46→40	41	211/253/301	90	262	8	5	23%	5%	50	-1.8	203/254/278	75	282	5	4	28%	5%	44	-2.1	180/231/230	51	220	3	0	19%	5%	20	-0.9
✕Yu Chang 2016 · A	20	41→46	42→50	45	38	202/252/305	103	275	9	6	29%	5%	50	-1.7	201/256/343	142	286	15	8	34%	6%	63	-0.9	215/275/364	149	282	17	4	29%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Rodolfo Durán 2018 · A	20	43	41→55	46→40	39	210/252/306	96	282	8	6	28%	5%	50	-1.7	208/243/347	139	281	18	3	32%	4%	59	-1.1	225/266/386	161	276	19	3	26%	4%	75	-0.0
✕Raul Juarez 2017 · A	19	42	41→45	42→40	41	208/273/305	97	268	9	6	25%	5%	61	-1.0	204/257/279	75	279	6	5	28%	5%	46	-2.0	180/221/220	41	250	4	2	29%	3%	13	-0.9
✕Brendan Rodgers 2016 · A	19	42→50	40→50	46→45	39	203/253/296	93	299	7	7	33%	6%	49	-1.8	219/263/330	111	288	12	6	27%	4%	62	-0.9	236/292/359	123	281	13	0	20%	6%	80	+0.2
✕Deivy Grullón 2016 · A	20	39→42	42→55	47→30	35	198/234/301	103	273	10	2	31%	4%	42	-2.3	221/258/343	122	300	13	2	30%	4%	63	-0.8	228/269/391	163	297	23	0	31%	5%	78	+0.1
✕Freuddy Batista 2019 · A	19	39	43→50	45→40	39	193/258/301	108	287	10	4	35%	7%	53	-1.5	194/251/315	121	295	13	5	37%	6%	53	-1.5	199/268/360	160	283	18	5	35%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Bryan Ramos 2021 · A	19	43	40→50	44→50	40	207/266/301	93	288	7	6	30%	6%	56	-1.3	208/270/342	134	271	16	6	29%	6%	69	-0.4	202/266/343	141	256	19	5	29%	6%	65	-0.6
✕Alejandro Flores 2015 · A	19	40	41→50	48→40	43	199/259/294	95	265	9	5	28%	7%	51	-1.7	195/256/288	93	291	8	6	33%	7%	48	-1.9	202/257/342	140	271	13	4	30%	6%	59	-0.5
✕Alexander Mojica 2022 · A	19	39	41→45	47→40	41	194/262/289	96	287	9	4	34%	7%	52	-1.6	185/266/295	110	307	11	4	40%	9%	56	-1.3	155/253/274	119	262	13	2	42%	10%	42	-0.8
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Franklin Barreto 2015 · A	19	43→48	41→55	49→50	37	205/257/317	111	296	7	9	32%	5%	56	-1.3	231/268/343	112	307	10	14	27%	4%	67	-0.5	217/273/384	168	316	20	13	36%	6%	78	+0.2