Alexander Mambel

C FCL Red Sox

Age 20 R/R 6'0" / 191 lbs ROK HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1611ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	17	ROKDSL Red Sox R…	106	.277/.305/.406	2	0	18	—	.178/.210/.248
2025	18	ROKBOS	53	.250/.365/.477	2	0	57	—	.156/.269/.333
2026	19	ROKBOS	28	.308/.357/.308	0	1	8	—	.185/.214/.185
2027PROJMLE	20	MLBBOS	138	.211/.264/.298	2	1	59	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	21	MLBBOS	27	.221/.276/.320	0	0	64	-0.0
2029PROJ50% MLB	22	MLBBOS	84	.224/.280/.331	1	1	68	0.0

Next 3 projected WAR 0.0Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2025 Rk

ISO96

wRC+79

wOBA73

Whiff%40

Z-Con%34

K%21

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 27 proj PA

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.209 / .262 / .296

PA27

HR0

K%28

BB%5

ISO88

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$9M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.2	$0.4M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-1	$0.8M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	17	ROK	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	28	7	0	2	1	13	3	0	0	277	305	406	711	129	299	12	1	314	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	53	44	11	4	0	2	4	15	4	0	1	250	365	477	843	227	321	28	8	369	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK	FCL Red Sox	—	28	26	8	0	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	308	357	308	665		533	39	7	308	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	18	4	0	1	1	16	3	0	0	178	210	248	457	69	198	15	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	53	45	7	2	0	2	3	22	4	0	1	156	269	333	603	178	235	42	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	28	27	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	185	214	185	399		435	57	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	18	4	0	1	1	16	3	0	0	178	210	248	457	69	200	15	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK RAW	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	28	7	0	2	1	13	3	0	0	277	305	406	711	129	299	12	1	314	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	53	45	7	2	0	2	3	22	4	0	1	156	269	333	603	178	227	42	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	53	44	11	4	0	2	4	15	4	0	1	250	365	477	843	227	321	28	8	369	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	28	27	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	185	214	185	399		455	57	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK RAW	FCL Red Sox	—	28	26	8	0	0	0	2	11	0	1	0	308	357	308	665		533	39	7	308	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	18	4	0	1	1	16	3	0	0	178	210	248	457	69	198	15	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	53	46	7	2	0	2	3	22	4	0	1	152	269	326	595	174	235	42	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	28	27	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	185	214	185	399		435	57	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	17	ROK MLE	DSL Red Sox Red	—	106	101	18	4	0	1	1	16	3	0	0	178	210	248	457	69	198	15	1	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	18	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	53	46	7	2	0	2	3	22	4	0	1	152	269	326	595	174	235	42	6	252	57	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	19	ROK MLE	FCL Red Sox	—	28	27	5	0	0	0	1	16	0	1	0	185	214	185	399		435	57	4	180	8	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	20	MLB MLE	BOS	0%	138	128	28	5	1	2	7	39	2	1	0	211	264	298	563	88	288	28	5	255	59	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	21	MLB MLE	BOS	34%	81	76	16	3	0	1	4	23	1	1	0	215	270	311	581	96	289	28	5	262	64	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	-0.0
2029	22	MLB MLE	BOS	50%	169	155	34	6	1	3	9	47	3	2	1	218	275	322	596	104	290	28	5	269	68	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	BOS	58%	262	241	54	10	1	5	15	71	4	3	1	221	279	331	610	110	291	27	6	274	72	-9	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.2
2031	24	MLB MLE	BOS	61%	348	319	72	13	2	7	21	94	5	4	1	224	282	339	621	115	292	27	6	279	75	-10	+0	+0	+6	+8	0.4
2032	25	MLB MLE	BOS	63%	396	363	82	15	2	8	24	106	6	4	2	226	285	345	630	120	292	27	6	282	77	-11	+0	+0	+7	+9	0.5
2033	26	MLB MLE	BOS	64%	426	391	88	16	2	9	26	114	6	4	2	226	285	347	631	121	292	27	6	283	78	-11	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2034	27	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	438	402	90	16	2	9	27	117	6	4	2	225	284	344	628	119	291	27	6	282	77	-12	+0	+0	+8	+9	0.5
2035	28	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	440	404	90	16	2	9	27	119	6	2	2	223	282	339	621	117	290	27	6	279	75	-13	-0	-1	+8	+10	0.3
2036	29	MLB MLE	BOS	65%	435	400	88	16	2	8	26	119	6	1	1	220	279	333	612	113	289	27	6	275	72	-14	-0	-1	+8	+9	0.1
2028	21	MLB CTX	BOS	34%	27	26	5	1	0	0	1	8	0	0	0	221	276	320	596	99	298	30	4	269	64	-1	+0	+0	+0	+1	-0.0
2029	22	MLB CTX	BOS	50%	84	78	16	3	0	1	5	23	1	1	0	224	280	331	611	106	300	27	6	275	68	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	BOS	58%	151	139	32	6	1	3	9	41	2	2	1	228	284	340	624	112	301	27	6	280	72	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	BOS	61%	212	194	45	9	1	4	13	57	3	2	1	230	288	348	636	118	302	27	6	285	75	-6	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	BOS	63%	249	228	52	10	1	5	15	66	4	2	1	232	290	354	644	122	302	27	6	288	77	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	BOS	64%	272	249	58	11	1	6	17	72	4	3	1	232	291	355	646	123	302	26	6	289	78	-7	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2034	27	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	285	262	60	12	1	6	17	76	4	2	1	231	289	353	642	122	301	27	6	288	77	-8	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	286	263	60	12	1	6	17	77	4	2	1	229	287	348	635	119	300	27	6	285	75	-9	+0	-0	+5	+6	0.2
2036	29	MLB CTX	BOS	65%	283	260	59	12	1	5	17	77	4	1	1	227	284	342	626	115	298	27	6	281	72	-9	-0	-1	+5	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1849	1699	387	76	7	36	111	497	26	15	7	228	285	344	630	117	299	27	6	285	72	-55	+0	-1	+33	+40	1.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	597	136	27	2	13	39	175	9	5	2	228	285	345	630	117	299	27	6	285	72	-20	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	3209	2950	649	118	14	62	185	872	50	26	13	220	278	333	610	113	289	27	6	274	72	-92	+0	-2	+54	+65	2.6
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	598	132	24	3	13	37	177	10	5	3	221	278	336	614	115	290	27	6	274	72	-20	+0	-0	+12	+14	0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ROKFCL Red Sox · 28 PAwOBA .301 → .180 (−121)K% 39.3% → 56.6%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	39.29%	÷1.000	×1.440	—	—	56.57%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.14%	÷1.000	×0.620	—	×0.995	4.41%
HBP% /PA	0.00%	—	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Singles /BIP	53.33%	÷1.000	×0.820	—	×0.995	43.51%
Doubles /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.720	—	×0.995	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.780	—	×0.995	0.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average).

Result: wOBA .301 → .180; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .533 → .435. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ROKFCL Red Sox · 53 PAwOBA .366 → .252 (−114)K% 28.3% → 42.2%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	28.30%	÷0.965	×1.440	—	—	42.25%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	7.55%	÷0.988	×0.620	—	×1.008	4.77%
HBP% /PA	7.55%	—	×0.720	—	×1.008	5.47%
Singles /BIP	17.24%	÷1.033	×0.820	—	×1.008	13.79%
Doubles /BIP	13.79%	÷1.101	×0.720	—	×1.008	9.09%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.720	—	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	6.90%	÷0.815	×0.780	—	×1.008	6.65%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 63, 1B 107, 2B 120, 3B 80, K 93, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .366 → .252; ISO .227 → .166; BABIP .321 → .235. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 DSLDSL Red Sox Red · 106 PAwOBA .308 → .195 (−113)K% 12.3% → 15.5%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	12.26%	÷0.965	×1.220	—	—	15.51%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	0.94%	÷1.044	×0.700	—	×1.008	0.64%
HBP% /PA	2.83%	—	×0.700	—	×1.008	2.00%
Singles /BIP	21.59%	÷1.000	×0.680	×1.037	×1.008	15.34%
Doubles /BIP	7.95%	÷1.124	×0.600	×1.037	×1.008	4.44%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷0.900	×0.600	×1.037	×1.008	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	2.27%	÷0.953	×0.470	—	×1.008	1.13%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 91, 1B 100, 2B 125, 3B 80, K 93, BB 109 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.037.

Result: wOBA .308 → .195; ISO .129 → .067; BABIP .299 → .198. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
	/162	664	12	0	229	310	340	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
	/162	664	20	1	217	311	367	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	4.3	2,823	31	5	231*	283*	340*	+48	+1	5.0	5.9
#4Fred Kendall'69-'80 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,823 PA	/162	664	7	1	231*	283*	340*	+11.2	+0.1	1.2	pk7: 7
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	2.6	1,698	38	9	228*	295*	352*	+30	-0	3.6	3.6
#5Ben Davis'98-'04 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,698 PA	/162	664	15	4	228*	295*	352*	+11.5	-0.0	1.4	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.8	1,876	37	15	224	279	340	+33	+24	3.0	2.9
	/162	664	13	5	224	279	340	+11.9	+8.5	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Mike Difelice'96-'08 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,714 PA	2.6	1,714	28	3	226*	277*	345*	+30	+0	0.6	1.5
	/162	664	11	1	226*	277*	345*	+11.7	+0.0	0.2	pk7: 2

Alexander Mambel

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps